Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[BigA]

Ernie also has to get some credit for re-signing Beal, even if drafting him in the first place was the obvious move, and he didn't really have much choice in the re-signing.

I'll feel better if Brad can get through this season without missing a bunch of games, but he's really raised his level of play to the point where he might even earn that contract.

Look at all the rebuilding teams that had multiple high draft picks bust. Ernie of course has Vesely, but Wall, Beal, and Porter have all developed into at least above average starters and either actual or potential all-stars.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Ernie also has to get some credit for re-signing Beal, even if drafting him in the first place was the obvious move, and he didn't really have much choice in the re-signing.

I'll feel better if Brad can get through this season without missing a bunch of games, but he's really raised his level of play to the point where he might even earn that contract.

Look at all the rebuilding teams that had multiple high draft picks bust. Ernie of course has Vesely, but Wall, Beal, and Porter have all developed into at least above average starters and either actual or potential all-stars.

By now, there can be no more doubters. GOAT.

He saw it all from the beginning. For the past two decades, he's been systematically planning for this, one seemingly crazy move after another each just another small step toward building for this moment.

Starting when John was 9 and Brad was 8, he carefully pulled the levers (presciently, like a magi) in order for us to suck at precisely the right moments. Meanwhile, he was secretly paying a trainer to help develop 'tween Bradley Beal.

Jared Jefferies? Part of the plan. Javaris Crittendon? Of course. Ernie had secret intel, saw his hidden rap sheet, and traded ADK at just the right time.

Gun gate? Did anyone think to check the chain of title on Gil's weapons? Sure they were Gil's guns, but who'd he get them from?

Getting Teddy Bear to announce the arrival of a new big three? Clever subterfuge to make other GMs think we are idiots and they could abuse us in trades.

Drafting Ves and Singleton in a single year? Looked foolish at the time, but was anyone else thinking about what high school junior Bradley Beal was eating, how much sleep he was getting?

Selling picks for a few sheckles? You all mocked him. Whose mocking now?

Randy Wittman? No way we have Oubre without Witt's 30 year old Bobby Knight offensive sets.

Mahinmi? Career mediocrity... had a side deal with E.G. leading back to his Spurs days. Promised to only give 60% until his 12th game of his eventual and inevitable Wizards tenure.

Checkers indeed!

[DCZards]

Ernie should get credit for signing Brooks as well. He may be the best off-season acquisition since we got Gilbert sometime back near 2003.

EG took a lot of heat from some on this board about how quickly he moved to sign Brooks after firing Wittman and how much he's paying Brooks.

EG was also slammed for signing Beal to a max contract without letting BB test the market first.

Looks to me like EG was playing chess while some of his critics on this board were the ones playing checkers.

[BigA]

You know what they say about it being better to be lucky than good. I think this is true in the NBA more than other sports as well.

I think that Ernie is actually mediocre. There are guys who are clearly better. There are guys who are clearly worse.

You have to recognize some of the bad developments that were largely out of his control, like 5-6 years getting cut out of Gilbert's prime. This year, even as we see some of his moves that were flawed or not optimal, we also see some big things going well, at least for now.

Can Ernie finish the job and give Wall-Beal-Otto-Brooks what they need to get over the top? I'm doubtful. But again, luck is going to be a significant factor.

[payitforward]

There have been plenty of productive picks in that range, and plenty of stars (like Gobert and Butler) taken just after that range. When you hit on one of these picks you have cheap production for 4 years and restricted rights when the rookie deal is up.

Going back to 2010 looking only at picks 20-25

Capella
Hood
Hardaway Jr
Mason Plumlee
Dieng
Snell
Fornier
Sullinger
Faried
Reggie Jackson
Montiejunas
Collison
Casspi
Ryan Anderson
Courtney Lee
Kosta Koufas
Serge Ibaka
Batum
Wilson Chandler
Dudley
Rondo
Lowry


Of course there are probably guys taken in the last two drafts that will be productive players down the line when they mature. Ironically enough Bojan was taken at 31, Mahinmi at 28. Gortat was a 2nd rounder.

Yes, there are absolutely some gems to be found in the 20-25 picks. Batum, Gobert, Ibaka, Rondo, Lowry and one or two others immediately stick out. But you don't get four years of "cheap production" out of most of them, because very few of the players on this list were "productive" their first couple of years in the league.

And, some of these players, including Batum, Lowry, Hardaway Jr., and Chandler, were on their second or third teams before they became truly productive.

Except, it shouldn't be players *chosen* at 20-25; it should be players *available* at picks 20-25. The point being the value of having that pick. Obviously, that adds a whole bunch of players.

Obviously, you don't get a player at his peak on his rookie contract, Zards, but that's not really the point either. You do get production -- efficiency varies; sometimes it's terrific -- & you get a contract that's a valuable asset, which is really the most important point. Think about what an extraordinary trade asset a guy like Richaun Holmes is, because of his contract.

Really there are only two bargain contracts in the NBA: a rookie contract & a superstar's contract no matter how large it is. The 2d kind is obvious. There's a financial limit on contracts, but there's no equivalent limit on how good a player can be. A lot of guys get maxxed these days, but if it's Michael Jordan you max.... You get my point.

In a way, rookie contracts are similar, in that R1 picks are determined by a fixed pay schedule at each slot, @ R2 picks get less not more (though they are often shorter, which gives the team less control).

OTOH, Bojan will receive a next contract at his market value (or more), because all 30 teams are able to bid. Once signed, however good he is, his contract won't be a big-time value the way e.g. Richaun Holmes's contract is.

[payitforward]

You know what they say about it being better to be lucky than good. I think this is true in the NBA more than other sports as well.

I think that Ernie is actually mediocre. There are guys who are clearly better. There are guys who are clearly worse.

You have to recognize some of the bad developments that were largely out of his control, like 5-6 years getting cut out of Gilbert's prime. This year, even as we see some of his moves that were flawed or not optimal, we also see some big things going well, at least for now.

Can Ernie finish the job and give Wall-Beal-Otto-Brooks what they need to get over the top? I'm doubtful. But again, luck is going to be a significant factor.

For sure -- you always have to be lucky! Chance can do much more than skill, and more easily too. We were lucky in 2010, or we'd have had (I think) the 9th pick instead of the first overall. Ditto in 2013, when luck moved us to #3 instead of #8. Wall & Porter were the default picks at their spots, & so was Beal. No FO skill involved in those picks. OTOH, the trade up to pick Booker was an excellent move. The trade that got us the #17 pick that year was as well. Then, trading Heinrich for a #1 pick and Crawford was outstanding as well, even though Crawford didn't work out.

Ernie gets credit for the skillful moves and blame for the dumb ones. If he overpaid for Gortat, because of his own mistakes, he gets the blame for that. But, at least he overpaid for a good player! He gets credit for that part of it.

Overall, I think "mediocre" overestimates Ernie. He's plain bad. At least at evaluating talent. Too many stupid moves. All the same, if you're bad, the rules level the playing field for you a little by giving you more high picks to work with. The team isn't forced to pay full price for how bad you are.

[BigA]

<snip>
Really there are only two bargain contracts in the NBA: a rookie contract & a superstar's contract no matter how large it is. The 2d kind is obvious. There's a financial limit on contracts, but there's no equivalent limit on how good a player can be. A lot of guys get maxxed these days, but if it's Michael Jordan you max.... You get my point.
<snip>

You might also get a bargain/discount from ring-chasing vets. But your larger point is spot on. Once Otto gets his max, and Bogie is either paid or leaves, the only production on the team that won't be fully-priced or over-priced is John for the remaining years of his current contract.

[payitforward]

Ernie should get credit for signing Brooks as well. He may be the best off-season acquisition since we got Gilbert sometime back near 2003.

EG took a lot of heat from some on this board about how quickly he moved to sign Brooks after firing Wittman and how much he's paying Brooks.

EG was also slammed for signing Beal to a max contract without letting BB test the market first.

Looks to me like EG was playing chess while some of his critics on this board were the ones playing checkers.

No. In the case of Beal, he was rolling the dice not playing chess. He gets credit, of course. That's fair, as he'd get blame if it hadn't worked out.

As to Brooks, hard not to be happy with results -- but surely part of the difference is in contrast to how bad Wittman was. Who hired Wittman?

Again, what's remarkable here is how much better we are either despite Ernie's terrible signings or with no real benefit from one of them (injury).

Gortat has having an outstanding season as usual -- be interesting to compare his numbers under Wittman & Brooks to see if it makes sense to assign Brooks any credit in his case. Porter has developed further -- but he did that from year 2 to year 3 as well (i.e. under Wittman). Beal has made the biggest jump. & Wall is playing at his career peak. Those are the drivers of our success.

It's good that Oubre has taken a step, of course. & Smith has been a nice surprise the last 20-25 games. Morris had a stretch of good play (& he had a good game vs. Portland last night, so maybe we'll see more good play).

Ernie's other off-season acquisitions were Nicholson, Mahinmi, Burke, Satoransky, McClellan, House & Ochefu. Those guys haven't had a positive effect on our record. Bojan's red-hot streak gave us more wins than all of those guys added up together. I just find it kind of strange -- happy for sure! Still... it's strange: we are a ton better than last year, & it has zero to do with anything the FO did in the off season to get us there.

[Illuminaire]

EG took a lot of heat from some on this board about how quickly he moved to sign Brooks after firing Wittman and how much he's paying Brooks.

EG was also slammed for signing Beal to a max contract without letting BB test the market first.

Looks to me like EG was playing chess while some of his critics on this board were the ones playing checkers.

Never confuse process with results.

And never argue in favor of EG using results - unless you want to spend the next week explaining literal decades of losing.

[tontoz]

EG took a lot of heat from some on this board about how quickly he moved to sign Brooks after firing Wittman and how much he's paying Brooks.

EG was also slammed for signing Beal to a max contract without letting BB test the market first.

Looks to me like EG was playing chess while some of his critics on this board were the ones playing checkers.

Never confuse process with results.

And never argue in favor of EG using results - unless you want to spend the next week explaining literal decades of losing.

Yeah if you want to look at results just look at 35 wins per season over 14 years on the job.

Similar to poker there is some luck involved when making basketball decisions. A smart GM, like Morey, will make consistently good decisions which is why his team has a winning record year after year.A bad GM like EG makes consistently bad decisions which are reflected in his record.

But over the short term there can be a wide variance, just like poker. Sometimes a bad decision can pay off and sometimes a good decision can hurt you.

[DCZards]

No. In the case of Beal, he was rolling the dice not playing chess. He gets credit, of course. That's fair, as he'd get blame if it hadn't worked out.

As to Brooks, hard not to be happy with results -- but surely part of the difference is in contrast to how bad Wittman was. Who hired Wittman?

Again, what's remarkable here is how much better we are either despite Ernie's terrible signings or with no real benefit from one of them (injury).

Gortat has having an outstanding season as usual -- be interesting to compare his numbers under Wittman & Brooks to see if it makes sense to assign Brooks any credit in his case. Porter has developed further -- but he did that from year 2 to year 3 as well (i.e. under Wittman). Beal has made the biggest jump. & Wall is playing at his career peak. Those are the drivers of our success.

It's good that Oubre has taken a step, of course. & Smith has been a nice surprise the last 20-25 games. Morris had a stretch of good play (& he had a good game vs. Portland last night, so maybe we'll see more good play).

Ernie's other off-season acquisitions were Nicholson, Mahinmi, Burke, Satoransky, McClellan, House & Ochefu. Those guys haven't had a positive effect on our record. Bojan's red-hot streak gave us more wins than all of those guys added up together. I just find it kind of strange -- happy for sure! Still... it's strange: we are a ton better than last year, & it has zero to do with anything the FO did in the off season to get us there.

Damn, PIF. You're a hard man to please. Zards have been rolling (best record in the association since January 1) and you only grudgingly give EG any props.

Here's where you're right about the offseason: Burke and Nicholson were really bad moves.

Here's what you're missing: Brooks was a great offseason move; EG's "rolling the dice" with Beal and showing confidence in him was, I believe, a major psychological boost for the 23 yo that is paying dividends; far too early to tell what we've got in Sato, but there are things to like about him--his bball IQ, his D, his handle, his size for a guard; Mahinmi continues to shake off the rust and I expect him to be a real factor in the playoffs, especially on defense; McCellan has some possible upside; House and Ochefu have been roster placeholders, but I don't think anyone expected them to be much more than that; Nicholson's salary has been dumped for a player who is already a significant contributor; Burke has been benched in favor of the playmaking back up guard that the Zards needed.

So let's not simply focus on what was done in the "offseason." In fact, aren't you the one who's always telling us that the bottom line is the bottom line?

Well, the bottom line in this case is the Zards current won-lost record.

[milellie111]

If you look at the past 5 years, a GM who's drafted one of the best backcourts in the league, hit on Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Jason Smith, Ian Mahimi, and Bojan Bogdanavic, hired arguably coach of the year in Scott Brooks, and currently has the team fighting for 2nd place in the conference...Grunfeld has been one of the best GMs in the league.

[AFM]

If you look at the past 5 years, a GM who's drafted one of the best backcourts in the league, hit on Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Jason Smith, Ian Mahimi, and Bojan Bogdanavic, hired arguably coach of the year in Scott Brooks, and currently has the team fighting for 2nd place in the conference...Grunfeld has been one of the best GMs in the league.

No. THE BEST.

[closg00]

Most organizations expect the current Wiz season to be the norm, not a once a decade occurrence.

[payitforward]

If you look at the past 5 years, a GM who's drafted one of the best backcourts in the league, hit on Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Jason Smith, Ian Mahimi, and Bojan Bogdanavic, hired arguably coach of the year in Scott Brooks, and currently has the team fighting for 2nd place in the conference...Grunfeld has been one of the best GMs in the league.

Well, gosh Millie, you are right that Ernie didn't mess up the #1 pick in the draft (come to him via luck) or either of the #3 picks in the draft (1 of which came to him by luck). And, Brooks is a good, professional NBA coach.

But he didn't "hit on" Markieff Morris, Millie -- the guy is terrible. & he didn't hit on Jason Smith either; he's a mediocrity. And Bojan Bogdanovic isn't a good player & never has been. Oh, and Ian Mahinmi has given us 339 minutes so far -- how in H*ll would you know he was a "hit"??

Nor are we "fighting for 2d place in the conference" either.

Above all, do you really think you can describe Ernie Grunfeld as "one of the best GMs in the league?" Don't you really mean "one of the well-known stumblebums who gets by on his ability to manage his owner?" Isn't that really what you mean? Huh? Come on... tell the truth, Millie! You can do it!

[Dat2U]

If you look at the past 5 years, a GM who's drafted one of the best backcourts in the league, hit on Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Jason Smith, Ian Mahimi, and Bojan Bogdanavic, hired arguably coach of the year in Scott Brooks, and currently has the team fighting for 2nd place in the conference...Grunfeld has been one of the best GMs in the league.

Well, gosh Millie, you are right that Ernie didn't mess up the #1 pick in the draft (come to him via luck) or either of the #3 picks in the draft (1 of which came to him by luck). And, Brooks is a good, professional NBA coach.

But he didn't "hit on" Markieff Morris, Millie -- the guy is terrible. & he didn't hit on Jason Smith either; he's a mediocrity. And Bojan Bogdanovic isn't a good player & never has been. Oh, and Ian Mahinmi has given us 339 minutes so far -- how in H*ll would you know he was a "hit"??

Nor are we "fighting for 2d place in the conference" either.

Above all, do you really think you can describe Ernie Grunfeld as "one of the best GMs in the league?" Don't you really mean "one of the well-known stumblebums who gets by on his ability to manage his owner?" Isn't that really what you mean? Huh? Come on... tell the truth, Millie! You can do it!

Markieff is my least favorite Wizard... by a mile. He had one good month of inspired play and has gone back to the career slacker he's become. He's one of the laziest guys I had the misfortune of having to root for.

[AFM]

Jason Smith: mediocrity? Someone just earned himself a lifetime membership on my ignore list.

[FAH1223]

Bojan is back to being the net negative player we know who he is.

[Meliorus]

Would anyone rather have traded 2 2nd rounders for PJ Tucker instead of 1st Rounder + Nicholson for Bojan + CMC?

[verbal8]

You know what they say about it being better to be lucky than good. I think this is true in the NBA more than other sports as well.

I think that Ernie is actually mediocre. There are guys who are clearly better. There are guys who are clearly worse.

Initially I thought it would be pretty hard to make a case for teams/GMs that are worse, but the LA Lakers and Knicks seem that way. Sacramento is a dumpster fire and got a horrible return on Cousins. There are teams that are horrible, but many of them are that way because of past GMs.

Top-level free agency tends to be a crap shoot. Imagine if EG had a little more luck and Horford had chosen to sign with the Wizards. He might have been able to look like a good GM. It also would have saved him from being able to sign Nicholson.