2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2

[BallerTalk]

The Rockets are 19-10 against the East this season, and 29-12 against the West... so it seems like they'd have a worse record if you base it on something factual.

The irrefutable fact is the Rockets are currently 48-22 (.686) and that places them ahead of Cleveland's 46-23 (.667).
Posting conference seeding to present the illusion of Cleveland having a better record seems disingenuous.

[RCM88x]

The Rockets are 19-10 against the East this season, and 29-12 against the West... so it seems like they'd have a worse record if you base it on something factual.

The irrefutable fact is the Rockets are currently 48-22 (.686) and that places them ahead of Cleveland's 46-23 (.667).
Posting conference seeding to present the illusion of Cleveland having a better record seems disingenuous.

I never posted conference seeding to try and portray Cleveland having a better record. I only posted that comparing W/L across conferences is completely meaningless because it literally has zero impact on anything, other than possible one home game if both teams win 3 prior playoff series.

[BallerTalk]

The Rockets are 19-10 against the East this season, and 29-12 against the West... so it seems like they'd have a worse record if you base it on something factual.

The irrefutable fact is the Rockets are currently 48-22 (.686) and that places them ahead of Cleveland's 46-23 (.667).
Posting conference seeding to present the illusion of Cleveland having a better record seems disingenuous.

I never posted conference seeding to try and portray Cleveland having a better record. I only posted that comparing W/L across conferences is completely meaningless because it literally has zero impact on anything, other than possible one home game if both teams win 3 prior playoff series.

The original comment that started the exchange was about someone posting the Cavs seeding as an edge over Harden and Westbrook while ignoring the fact that Harden's Rockets actually have the better record.
In that context their comparative team records is certainly relevant.

[Shock Defeat]

If the Cavs were in the West, they would be the 4th seed but I'm not even all that confident that they'd be better than the Jazz/Clippers. LeBron certainly can't afford to miss as many games as he had.

[INKtastic]

Well, raw W/L record is 100% meaningless, the only thing that has any actual value is your record relative to the other teams in the conference.

If you take out the 6 losses the Cavs have this year when LeBron didnt play---the Cavs have a +.750 win percentage. Their record when he plays is 45-18. Better than Hardens.

He sat out games when healthy. That's on him and should be used against him. Same with Kawhi. A valuable player actually plays games. You can't be valuable when you sit. Otherwise I could make an argument as Embiid for MVP assuming he played 48 mins a game 82 games. If Embiid played 48 mins a game 82 games this season he'd be in the conversation at least but he isn't because you can't help your team when you miss games and play limited minutes.

Of course Lebron has tons of reasons to be MVP, but I think it's fair to use his team record even when he sits, because you aren't helping your team win games when you sit.

The most valuable thing LeBron can do for Cleveland is win championships. Sitting out games helps him accomplish that.

[BallerTalk]

Okay, I mean I won't convince you which is fine, but I strive for self awareness in all aspects of life. Obviously, as you said, everyone has at least a bit of homerism. But me a rabid homer? Nah.

I think it's odd that in the current climate we have with flopping, that people think Harden's playing style doesn't hurt his case. So I guess we're even there. Having missed 6 games doesn't remove someone from the MVP convo - I would guess he will miss more, and at that point we can have that discussion - but 6 games? I think Kawhi is right there with him and some people want to give Kawhi the MVP. It also looks very similar to when he sits during the games he plays - I would bet that the Rockets could beat some teams without Harden playing. His on/off certainly reflects that.

Flopping? You may want to watch a few games and update your narrative.

And no one argued that 6 missed games should, in and of itself, remove Lebron from the MVP conversation, but you absolutely cannot use those same missed games to skew stats in his favor.
The fact that he has already missed six eligible games, which amounts to about two weeks in the NBA, is not an argument that benefits Lebron when you have other candidates with better numbers playing every night.

[Tritodian]

The most powerful predictor of MVP among all existing stats is Win Shares :

http://popgates.com/projecting-the-nba-regular-season-awards/

In studying the Most Valuable Players of the last 30 years, I focused primarily on the advanced statistics Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Win Shares (WS), Box Plus-Minus (BPM), and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). One aspect I also tracked was whether or not a given MVP played for the best team in the regular season. In the last 30 years, the representative frequency of the MVP leading the league in each statistic was 43% (PER), 56% (WS), 40% (BPM), and 47% (VORP). The MVP was also on the best regular season team 56% of the time. These percentages tell me that there is a good likelihood that this year’s MVP will lead the league in one or more of these categories.

Leading the league in WS is an equally strong a marker of MVP as finishing with the best team record (56%)

Harden leads the league in WS, 2nd in BPM and VORP, and 3rd in WS/48 and PER.

Westbrook leads the league in PER, BPM, and VORP, but he's only 5th and 9th in WS and WS/48.

Kawhi is 2nd in WS,WS/48 and PER, but only 5th and 8th in VORP and BPM.

LeBron is 7th in WS, 8th in WS/48, 6th in PER, 4th in BPM, and 3rd in VORP.

Harden is the only player who is top 3 in all major advanced statistical categories (except RPM.) He also has the best TS% among MVP candidates, and 2nd best team record.

Due to this consistency factor, basketball-reference has Harden way ahead in this MVP race

http://static.bkref.com/friv/mvp.html

[HurricaneKid]

The Cavs with LeBron off the floor is now -8.9pts/100 possessions. The Nets are -7.9pts/100 possessions. And its not even a small sample size at this point.

[mihail_petkov]

I also think people look at raw stats FAR too much when evaluating the MVP. It basically comes down to who is averaging the most PTS/REB/AST and defense isnt even included. When you look at the actual numbers, percentages and efficiency---LeBron is the MVP.

Who team is the #1 Seed? LeBron Curry
Who is shooting the highest FG% of the 3? LeBron LeBron and Curry have same TS while Curry shooting less FTs.
Who is shooting the highest 3pt% of the 3? LeBron Curry
Who has the best On/Off of the 3? LeBron Curry
Who has the least amount of turnovers of the 3? LeBron Curry
Whose team is 1-7 without him playing? LeBron Kyrie and Love didn't play in some of the games too, also most of them were b2b away
There are 57 players in the NBA shooting 13+ shots a night. Of the 57 who has the highest shooting %? LeBron. Westbrook is 54th. Curry and LeBron both have 62% TS
Who is the best defender of the 3? LeBron LeBron is bad this year, 108 DRTG, 2.7 DWS, 1.7 DBPM, Curry - 105 DRTG, 3.2 DWS, -0.7 DBPM
Who has the best +/- of the 3? LeBron Curry

As far as Kawhi---LeBrons is the better rebounder, passer and equal in scoring. As far as his defense, Spurs defense is 9 point BETTER with Kawhi OFF the court than it is on. His defense gets slightly overstated this year since he has to take more offensive load.

Kawhi's ON/OFF- +1.4 pts
Harden ON/OFF- +5.5 pts
Westbrook ON/OFF- 11.1 pts
LeBron ON/OFF- +15.1 pts
Curry ON/OFF - +15.8 pts

4th QTR FG%

Kawhi- 30th
Harden- 64th
Westbrook- 44th
LeBron- 1st

As the guy on ESPN said. We need to stop trying to find reasons to NOT give LeBron the MVP. He is recognized as the best player by everybody in the world playing on the #1 seed playing 10x more efficient basketball than the other candidates.

So.. maybe the award should go to Curry

Your Anti-Lebronism is comical.

Which of the numbers are wrong? The argument for LeBron is even more valid for Curry. Both of them have the biggest impact in NBA but doesn't mean they are MVP because their teams underachieved in the RS and OKC/Rockets overachieved so far. Obviously Curry and LeBron are coasting a lot but you can't give them the award then they are playing at 70%. Give it to Harden/Westbrook and that's it.

[K_chile22]

http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612745/onoffcourt-advanced/?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=12%2F01%2F2016&DateTo=03%2F24%2F2017&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1


For people talking about Harden as MVP though, and especially versus the Cavs supporting cast - how can Harden be viewed as the most valuable player when his team seems to do better with him off the court?

EDIT: numbers are since 12/1

Bench beating other benches =/= better with him off the floor. They have a good bench. That's it.

[Edrees]

If you take out the 6 losses the Cavs have this year when LeBron didnt play---the Cavs have a +.750 win percentage. Their record when he plays is 45-18. Better than Hardens.

He sat out games when healthy. That's on him and should be used against him. Same with Kawhi. A valuable player actually plays games. You can't be valuable when you sit. Otherwise I could make an argument as Embiid for MVP assuming he played 48 mins a game 82 games. If Embiid played 48 mins a game 82 games this season he'd be in the conversation at least but he isn't because you can't help your team when you miss games and play limited minutes.

Of course Lebron has tons of reasons to be MVP, but I think it's fair to use his team record even when he sits, because you aren't helping your team win games when you sit.

The most valuable thing LeBron can do for Cleveland is win championships. Sitting out games helps him accomplish that.

It's valuable to the post season but the MVP is a regular season accomplishment.

[BallerTalk]

Read on Twitter

But that doesn't change the fact that judging supporting cast on preseason W/L totals is the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

Looking at preseason predictions helps remove some of the recency bias when assessing the talent around a player.
At the start of the season prognosticators looked at the Rockets roster, considered the talent lost (Howard, Jones, etc) vs talent gained (Anderson, Gordon) and decided they were likely a near .500 team.

That reality curbs the spurious narrative that the Rockets superior record so far (especially in comparisons with Westbrook) is due to some All-Star cast around Harden.
Instead you have to consider that perhaps those guys are playing well because they play with a star who enables them and in a system that empowers them.

[andrewww]

That reality curbs the spurious narrative that the Rockets superior record so far (especially in comparisons with Westbrook) is due to some All-Star cast around Harden.
Instead you have to consider that perhaps those guys are playing well because they play with a star who enables them and in a system that empowers them.

Bingo. Westbrook has some Lebron in him in that they "are the system" since they contribute across the board. But is that necessarily optimal in raising the ceiling of your team ahead of other players on the same tier who are more specialized in being ultra elite at defined roles? I think not.

IMO Harden will edge out Kawhi and Westbrook for MVP as we speak.

[JordansBulls]

Harden with a dominate game made the last shot and then the defensive play at the end.

[StepBackCrack]

MVP

[K_chile22]

Read on Twitter

Oof

[laika]

Westbrook was essentially eliminated from the MVP race tonight.

The argument for Westbrook has become too contradictory. The only advantage Westbrook has over Harden is On/Off. However, voters just don't really care about that. But even if On/Off miraculously became a major MVP criteria, Curry and Lebron are going to easily beat Westbrook at On/Off and wins.

Basically, the only chance Westbrook has left is if you have two separate groups of voters using totally different criteria.

[RightToCensor]

Harden took over the lead in this thread's poll. I haven't voted yet, I'm just observing how people jump to the conclusion after every game.

[ocelot17]

Harden took over the lead in this thread's poll. I haven't voted yet, I'm just observing how people jump to the conclusion after every game.

Yeah I noticed Leonard from 3rd to 1st place after his big game against Houston a couple weeks ago.

[RightToCensor]

This discussion is probably a month old, but I wouldn't mind if Harden and Westbrook were Co-MVPs if Harden continues doing what he's doing and Westbrook averages his 30 point triple double.