Poll/Discussion: Would you trade Middleton for the Nets Pick?

[HaroldinGMinor]

Anyone change their minds on this?

[ackypoo]

not yet, but its close.

[ReasonablySober]

not yet, but its close.

[Siefer]

I thought Middleton was a top 40 player last year. When he has his legs under him, he might be top 20 now.

Definitely not pre-lottery, but if the pick is #1?

[humanrefutation]

I was ever-so-slightly leaning towards "yes" when this poll was first put up. I'm now at a toss up.

[BucksPackers]

Pick 1-2 I would trade him. Ball and Fultz would be great additions.

[freewhitemoon]

cmon... Middleton isn't top 20

[paulpressey25]

Right now I think most would clearly say "No".

That said, as with all our player analysis on here, we've got to see stuff sustain and play out over a long-term. And not just referring to the Jennings for Chris Paul thread from 2009.

From 2005 to 2008 we had a number of "would you deal Bogut for AK47" threads. Some started by us, some started by Utah posters. And the ironic thing is that at about 5 different points, each fanbase outright rejected the deal while the other wanted it. It kept going back and forth as each guy excelled, struggled or had injury issues.

But Middleton has been playing like 2008 Paul Pierce here.

[coolhandluke121]

I already thought Khris was this good so it doesn't change my mind. Playing very well for a few months or even years doesn't prove he's going to get all his athleticism back or be a lighter, better-conditioned player in the future. If anything, those are more of a concern as he passes his mid-20's. Right now he's Redd with a high bbiq. In other words, unlike Redd he's a very valuable player, but that doesn't erase the other issues he and Redd both had.

Also, this improvement is almost just as much of a testament to how little help Giannis had as it is to how good Khris is. What we're seeing is not about Khris's value above neutral, which determines his trade value; it's about his value above several negatives (not just individual negatives, but combinations that were less than the sum of the parts). I think Khris is roughly a top-30 player, but there are a number of other guys you could have placed Jabari/Beasley with and seen similar improvement and not all of them are worth more than the Nets' pick. That's a very valuable asset.

However, I'm still thrilled we have him and wouldn't complain much if they were offered this deal and said no. His injury seems to have forced him to add a lot of tricks to his repertoire, so if he gets in shape over the summer and has a few more injury-free years, he could be deadly.

[drew881]

Has anyone done any analysis about what the odds are of landing a star in the first 5 picks, and if those odds have changed over the past 10-20 years? I'm looking through the top 5 over the past 10 years and my answer to trading Middleton is hell no.

[coolhandluke121]

Has anyone done any analysis about what the odds are of landing a star in the first 5 picks, and if those odds have changed over the past 10-20 years? I'm looking through the top 5 over the past 10 years and my answer to trading Middleton is hell no.

We've done that death in several other threads, including the Jabari trade thread. 10 years is not a very significant sample size, and we've had a stretch of bad drafts. People have tried to offer reasons for why the draft has been bad and suggest that top-3 picks aren't as valuable as they used to be, but there's no evidence that supports any of those theories. Very young players and international players have been in the draft for a long time. So have international players. And you can find 8-10 year stretches of weak drafts from periods when young players and international players weren't drafted at all, while also finding very strong decades when lots of players like that were drafted, so that's not the issue. The youngest players drafted in the top 5, including even high schoolers and freshmen, often end up being better than the older players.

The draft has up and down cycles. It's the nature of the beast. 10 years of top-3 picks (I don't agree with making the cut-off at top-5 if we're talking about the Nets' pick) is only 30 players. Do you judge a player's 3-point shooting on his first 30 3pa's of the season? You need a lot of years to estimate a reasonable expected value of a top-3 pick. I love Khris but he's a textbook type of veteran who's worth a top-3 pick in a deep draft without a clear-cut hall-of-fame #1.

[DutchManDanFan]

Has anyone done any analysis about what the odds are of landing a star in the first 5 picks, and if those odds have changed over the past 10-20 years? I'm looking through the top 5 over the past 10 years and my answer to trading Middleton is hell no.

Good point!
Besides, Giannis wants to compete rather sooner that later. He will be pissed if his best team mate is traded for someone who needs a couple of years developing first.

[DutchManDanFan]

I don't agree with making the cut-off at top-5 if we're talking about the Nets' pick

With the worst record the chance is 35.7% to get the 4th pick. That's significant. The chance for the 3rd or 4th pick is 53.5%. So more likely then to get # 1 or 2.

[humanrefutation]

Has anyone done any analysis about what the odds are of landing a star in the first 5 picks, and if those odds have changed over the past 10-20 years? I'm looking through the top 5 over the past 10 years and my answer to trading Middleton is hell no.

Me and CHL went a few rounds on this earlier in the thread if you want to look. I concluded that about 30-35% of players picked in the top 5 are as good as Middleton is at his peak.

[buckbeer]

Voted No. The last season and the in last game has shown why Middleton is so valuable to the Bucks. He's a elite shooter and a very good playmaker and defender. To me, Khris is currently more valuable than Jabari because he provides a more complete game on defense and playmaking. If we had Jabari instead of Khris in that last game at Nets, we would probably have lost that game.

Khris is another guy who can lead the Bucks and play the point like Giannis. With Khris playing 30 mins per game down the stretch, we could see the Bucks go on a winning streak and make the playoffs. Plus Khris is relatively young at 25 and on a great contract heading into his prime years. Middleton is one of the vital players for the Bucks on the championship quest.

I said this back in February 18 during the all-star break, and the Bucks indeed went on a winning streak on Middleton's return to the starting lineup and are close to making the playoffs.

Khris is truly one of the vital players for the Bucks on the championship quest along with Giannis.

[coolhandluke121]

Has anyone done any analysis about what the odds are of landing a star in the first 5 picks, and if those odds have changed over the past 10-20 years? I'm looking through the top 5 over the past 10 years and my answer to trading Middleton is hell no.

Good point!
Besides, Giannis wants to compete rather sooner that later. He will be pissed if his best team mate is traded for someone who needs a couple of years developing first.

That's the best counter-argument by far. But if Khris turns out to be kind of fat and injury-prone like Redd, the end result is worse. And if the Nets' pick turns into a cheaper star with a longer future, the Bucks will have lost out big-time.

[jakecronus8]

As previously stated, Fultz or Ball and I pull the trigger. Boston would not.

[coolhandluke121]

I don't agree with making the cut-off at top-5 if we're talking about the Nets' pick

With the worst record the chance is 35.7% to get the 4th pick. That's significant. The chance for the 3rd or 4th pick is 53.5%. So more likely then to get # 1 or 2.

I'm not sure if you understand expected value calculations in probability, but you have to weigh the value of each slot against the probability of that outcome. It should easily be regarded as having an expected value in the top-3, because the #4 slot only moves them 1 spot below my suggested cut-off of 3, whereas the #1 slot would move them two spots up. The statistical expected value of the pick is about 2.7.

It's also considered a deep draft. That's never set in stone and there are always exceptions, but statistically a draft that is regarded as strong is more likely to be strong than one that's not. Again, it's all about playing the odds. That's a damn valuable pick.

[GrandAdmiralDan]

I don't think I would trade Middleton for the Nets pick, although it would be tempting. How about Jabari, our 2017 1st, and Brogdon for that Nets pick instead?

[coolhandluke121]

I don't think I would trade Middleton for the Nets pick, although it would be tempting. How about Jabari, our 2017 1st, and Brogdon for that Nets pick instead?

If anyone here says no to that...

I love Brog Dog and he's helping a lot now on the first year of his rookie deal. It's hard to get that combination. If someone is a legit contributor, they're usually at least close to being done with their rookie deal. But for that pick? Of course.