2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread Volume 2

[Unbreakable99]

I agree with you for the most part, but I think you are being a little inflexible on this issue. I'm very dogmatic in the thought that I don't want any Big Men on my team who are weak Defensive players. But you can win with weak defenders at the PG position. It's been done over and over. Steve Nash, Kyrie Irving, Steph Curry...

Not only that, the PGs value as a trade piece and in free agency is almost entirely derived from the offensive side of the ball. The draft is not only about building the team, it's also about adding value and talent. Even if you prefer to build the team with Defensive role players, you still draft the offensive PG, and trade him for a King's Ransom later. Taking the next Elfrid Payton doesn't get you any more wins and when it comes time to trade him, you can't get anything because teams always want the offensive PG.

I think there are two different issues with Monk that are being conflated. One is his lack of Defensive value, the other is his offensive PG Skillset. Defense is important, but it's his lack of offensive PG Skillset at his size that makes him a shaky pick high in the draft. DSj has the offensive skillset (as you've pointed out) and therefore has the higher upside. Monk's offensive deficiencies (or perceived offensive deficiencies) are the more important issue.

Most of the better guards aren't that good on defense. Harden and Kyrie and Steph and many others are goodvon offense and just get by on defense. I think you can win with guys like McCollum or Beal if you have other good players around them. In a vacuum how close do you think KCP and McCollum are? Who do you think is better?

McCollum and Beal aren't in the the class of Harden, Curry or Irving. They don't have PG instincts. McCollum and Beal are undersized Shooting Guards. They are what you hope Monk can become.

With regards to who's better between KCP or McCollum: It depends on what you already have on the team. If you have a bunch of good defensive players in the Frontcourt and a PG with some size I'd take McCollum. If the team is more traditional, with a smaller, ball dominant PG, I'd take KCP.

So who would you rather have on our team between KCP and McCollum?

[the_process]

Unlike Bradley Beal and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, CJ McCollum does have the handle to play the point guard position. The pairing with Damian Lillard is just not working, which hurts him on the defensive end. I think CJ is a decent, but not great, defender at the point guard position. He's also not the best playmaker, that's not a huge deal though since he could share that burden with Simmons.
If our pick ends up something like 4-8, I would consider trading that pick for McCollum. He's the perfect fit with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons and it might make sense for Portland as well?

Not sure POR does that unless they decide to trade Dame and blow it up. While the value is definitely there, the timeline of a draft pick doesn't match up with Lillard. Unless maybe you ate like Meyers Leonard too and got them out of cap hell?

[HankTheTank]

Not Lloyd, but my personal preference is towards defense and KCP, though I acknowledge CJ is a better fit for this team... the thought of KCP, Cov, and Embiid on the floor at the same time, three truly elite defenders, I may stroke out before the season starts due to excitement.

[Sixerscan]

I think there are two players in the league that are so elite offensively that the tradeoff for their trash defense is actually worth the trouble. Isaiah Thomas and Dame Lillard. Both have elite handle, elite scoring ability, excellent shotmaking ability, and excellent distributing instincts.

This is the archetype Dennis Smith is gonna have to emulate, because he has no chance to be positionally passable defender (like Fultz does, for instance).

I don't get your point here. You would take that thornwell guy over Beal or McCollum?

I would definitely add Kyrie to your list. Wouldn't exactly take Patty Mills' defense over any of these guys either. Seems like a lot of the best teams get away with questionable defense at the 1. Curry's defense isn't exactly a huge asset himself, though he may be the definition of "passable."

I disagree with writing these guard prospects off defensively at 19 years old. Either way, i think you're getting tunnel vision on a particular type of player. You don't want a team of entirely no defense bucket getters but you also dont just want all of your role players to be solid all around with no elite skill. You need a large variety of players on your team to win a championship.

Eye test says Patty Mills plays better D than any of these other guys, and numbers bear that out. DRPM out of 90 PG's ranked; Mills is 53rd, Lillard is 68th, Irving is 76th, and Thomas is dead last at 90th. Yes, you could call him a lesser shade of bad; but still better.

I don't want to nitpick between shades of bad, but mills is also a much more limited offensive player than all of these guys. so if we're taking about offense "overcoming" defense there's still that issue. (And I wonder where mills would rank if he had to carry the offensive load some of those guys do every night)

My point is this: while the "casual" fans clearly can overrate the bucket getters, I think the learned gentry of Basketball Internet sometimes go too far the other way and act like the only non franchise guys worth having on a NBA roster are either the 3&D guys or rim protectors that are great roll men. I think if you look around the top teams in the league over the last few years you will see that is clearly not the case.

Applying that theory to the draft, I don't think we should super reach on guys just because right now today they appear to have the abilities to fit one of those archetypes. Don't try to force a guy just because he fits your idea of a perfect team. Or write off very talented but young guys just because they might not today.

[Sixerscan]

And specifically as far as defense goes, i think people underrate how much a player's role and the team's overall defensive scheme can go into making a guy a "passable defender", especially perimeter players.

[HankTheTank]

There will be some major decisions to be made if the pick is in the 6-8 range, and I think trading the pick should be on the table. For as spectacular as this draft is reported to be, there are only two players in this draft that truly excite me in Jackson and Ball. I'd grudgingly take Fultz, Smith, and Tatum next, but after that, I'd consider moving down in the draft for a pick in the Mitchell/Evans range plus a player/future pick, or for an established guard. CJ would fit the bill but I'd bet it would cost more...

Isaac really excited me when for a moment I thought he could be a freakish 3. It looks like he's a 4 who some team will have to be patient with. I still like him enough to draft him top 6, but it's probably time to consider fit for this team.

Saric has been a revelation. Roco, I should write a poem to express my love, hah. We have 4 starting caliber long-term pieces for a contending team in my mind. We even have the makings of a bench-- TLC is another surprise.

My point is, a couple months ago, I wouldn't have considered trading the pick. As the draft gets closer, this looks like just about any other draft despite the hype. There are going to be players (Mitchell, Evans, Hart, Swanigan, Thornwell, etc.) taken in the 20's, or even 2nd round, with as good a shot to stick as some of these lottery picks.

[eagereyez]

Not Lloyd, but my personal preference is towards defense and KCP, though I acknowledge CJ is a better fit for this team... the thought of KCP, Cov, and Embiid on the floor at the same time, three truly elite defenders, I may stroke out before the season starts due to excitement.

KCP's DRPM the last 4 years:

-0.66
0.52
-0.38
-0.82

Beal's DRPM the last 4 years:

-0.57
-2.53 (did injuries play a role in this?)
0.55
-0.53

So they've had similar defensive impact other than that outlier year in '15/'16. Similar defensive impact, yet one is considered an elite defender and the other a defensive sieve, when the reality is that they're both pretty neutral on that end.

[Negrodamus]

I didn't like this year's Kentucky team. I'm surprised they made it this far. Gonna be cool next year to see them with a true rim protecting C in Nick Richards. Something they've lacked the past couple of years since Willie and Towns left.

Screw that, I want Mo Bamba too.

I'd guess he goes there, even if it makes 0 sense for him, I'd go to Duke if I were Mo 100%

Between Sacha and Wynyard one gotta transfer right? like if UK gets Bamba they got;

Green/SGA
Diallo/SGA
Vanderbilt/Washington
Gabriel/SKJ/Wynyard
Bamba/Richards/Humphries

dunno if that's doable, you are already playing two PFs at the 3, not sure who will get the nod, PJ is a better scorer but Vanderbilt is a better all around player, and two streaky shooters in your backcourt.

The team looks like it's gonna be a mess, they will win some games due to been huge and overwhelming athletically at times, but it's gonna be disgusting to watch.

OTOH if he goes to Duke, with most likely everybody but Bolden leaving, he is likely gonna get the starting spot, esp if Knox doesnt committ there, next to Carter, and they might even get Duval too, like Duke could've;

Duval-Jackson
Jackson-Trent
Kennard-Knox
Carter-DeLaurier
Bamba-Bolden

Much better spacing, more vets, the UK team is all freshmen other than Gabriel, SKJ and Humphries basically, likely bigger role, I mean...should be a no-brainer but kids go with Cal, because of AD, Towns etc,... when if they actually wanted to improve as bigs they should go to Kansas because Self is by a mile the best big men coach in the country, without question.

Because Duke squanders five star big men. Giles and Bolden are prime examples of this.

If you want to win games and go top 5 (as a marquee recruit) in the draft, you go to UK. Everyone should know this by now.

[Kobblehead]

Isaac appears to be nothing more than a 4th or 5th option, offensively, but I guarantee he has a higher career VORP than at least half of the guys that get selected in front of him (based on him being mocked in the back of the Top 10).

When you want to build something special, you gotta select the right players.

[No-Man]

Because Duke squanders five star big men. Giles and Bolden are prime examples of this.

If you want to win games and go top 5 (as a marquee recruit) in the draft, you go to UK. Everyone should know this by now.

wait what? I hate Duke as an UNC fan but this is a bold statement, Giles has been out of basketball or hurt all year, how was he supposed to be treated by Duke? he wouldn't have played more at UK, and Bolden flat out sucks at what he needs to do as a big, so where is the problem there?

The bigs that go top5 from UK are either prime talents that would go top5 regardless of to where school the go in Towns/AD/Cousins, or guys like WCS that have unreal physical tools and get hyped up by national media (something that would happen at Duke as well).

Other than that the basketball argument isnt there, I am not a fan of K but he blows Calipari as a coach, and the spacing, setting and space, playing time for a big at Duke is much better than at UK next season, you guys have basically 7 bigs already for crying out loud, and the best shooter out of those is either SKJ or WGabriel... I mean.

[the_process]

There will be some major decisions to be made if the pick is in the 6-8 range, and I think trading the pick should be on the table. For as spectacular as this draft is reported to be, there are only two players in this draft that truly excite me in Jackson and Ball. I'd grudgingly take Fultz, Smith, and Tatum next, but after that, I'd consider moving down in the draft for a pick in the Mitchell/Evans range plus a player/future pick, or for an established guard. CJ would fit the bill but I'd bet it would cost more...

Isaac really excited me when for a moment I thought he could be a freakish 3. It looks like he's a 4 who some team will have to be patient with. I still like him enough to draft him top 6, but it's probably time to consider fit for this team.

Saric has been a revelation. Roco, I should write a poem to express my love, hah. We have 4 starting caliber long-term pieces for a contending team in my mind. We even have the makings of a bench-- TLC is another surprise.

My point is, a couple months ago, I wouldn't have considered trading the pick. As the draft gets closer, this looks like just about any other draft despite the hype. There are going to be players (Mitchell, Evans, Hart, Swanigan, Thornwell, etc.) taken in the 20's, or even 2nd round, with as good a shot to stick as some of these lottery picks.

Haven't given up on the idea of Issac as a 3. It might not work at all, but that's where he would bring the most value so you have to try. Just like Simmons brings the most value as a PG, so you have to try that, too.

[aHealthy3]

After Fultz and Ball, I think I may have talked myself into De'Aaron Fox as my #3. I find myself falling in love with his explosive athleticism - I think he's pretty handily the best athlete of the 3 and will thrive in the open court at the next level with proper spacing. The shooting is a concern, but as one poster wrote, he's showed steady improvement there and his form looks good. As a 19 y/o already showing steady improvement, he shouldn't have much of a problem developing into at least a serviceable shooter at the next level. Will probably struggle defensively when he first gets to the league, but has enough length and has the tools to become a plus on that end.

Not a slight, but Fultz athletically reminds me a lot of Jrue. Smooth to the point where it looks like he's not even going 100% at times. Not sure if we've seen someone like that ascend to true NBA superstardom although I think his floor is the highest of the 3. Fultz is obviously the goal and the best fit next to Simmons out of all these guys, but I don't think it's insane to say Fox has a chance of ending up being the best player out of this draft. I like Jackson too and wouldn't be upset if we ended up with him either. Admittedly I haven't watched enough of Ntilikina, but he seems like an interesting fallback option if we end up at 6 or something.

[ProcessDoctor]

Not Lloyd, but my personal preference is towards defense and KCP, though I acknowledge CJ is a better fit for this team... the thought of KCP, Cov, and Embiid on the floor at the same time, three truly elite defenders, I may stroke out before the season starts due to excitement.

KCP's DRPM the last 4 years:

-0.66
0.52
-0.38
-0.82

Beal's DRPM the last 4 years:

-0.57
-2.53 (did injuries play a role in this?)
0.55
-0.53

So they've had similar defensive impact other than that outlier year in '15/'16. Similar defensive impact, yet one is considered an elite defender and the other a defensive sieve, when the reality is that they're both pretty neutral on that end.

Great post. There's an unreasonable amount of hate for Beal on this board, when in reality, our team would be extremely lucky to have him.

[Negrodamus]

Because Duke squanders five star big men. Giles and Bolden are prime examples of this.

If you want to win games and go top 5 (as a marquee recruit) in the draft, you go to UK. Everyone should know this by now.

wait what? I hate Duke as an UNC fan but this is a bold statement, Giles has been out of basketball or hurt all year, how was he supposed to be treated by Duke? he wouldn't have played more at UK, and Bolden flat out sucks at what he needs to do as a big, so where is the problem there?

The bigs that go top5 from UK are either prime talents that would go top5 regardless of to where school the go in Towns/AD/Cousins, or guys like WCS that have unreal physical tools and get hyped up by national media (something that would happen at Duke as well).

Other than that the basketball argument isnt there, I am not a fan of K but he blows Calipari as a coach, and the spacing, setting and space, playing time for a big at Duke is much better than at UK next season, you guys have basically 7 bigs already for crying out loud, and the best shooter out of those is either SKJ or WGabriel... I mean.

K.

What do you want me to do about it? If Bamba commits to UK, he'll still go top five, he'll have the luxury of trying to block every shot and not worry about fouls (a la Towns), and the team will be successful.

Don't get on me about Mo Bamba's decision. I don't care about how many bigs we have. It just means we have more depth. And we nearly went undefeated with Trey Lyles, a power forward, at small forward.

And I certainly don't care about the product being "ugly". I'm concerned about winning.

[Unbreakable99]

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[LloydFree]

Most of the better guards aren't that good on defense. Harden and Kyrie and Steph and many others are goodvon offense and just get by on defense. I think you can win with guys like McCollum or Beal if you have other good players around them. In a vacuum how close do you think KCP and McCollum are? Who do you think is better?

McCollum and Beal aren't in the the class of Harden, Curry or Irving. They don't have PG instincts. McCollum and Beal are undersized Shooting Guards. They are what you hope Monk can become.

With regards to who's better between KCP or McCollum: It depends on what you already have on the team. If you have a bunch of good defensive players in the Frontcourt and a PG with some size I'd take McCollum. If the team is more traditional, with a smaller, ball dominant PG, I'd take KCP.

So who would you rather have on our team between KCP and McCollum?

I'd rather have KCP, because he's a better basketball player, with fewer flaws we'd have to cover.

[Kobblehead]

Bradley Beal generates about as much value as a 1-tool trash defender can provide and he's still doing so at a full point below what Wall and Porter are.

Bradley Beal is lucky to be able to play between two studs that play both ends at a high level.

That Wizards team would be scary beyond comprehension if they swapped Beal for Caldwell-Pope.

[Unbreakable99]

Knowing that BC is trying to build a cohesive team I don't think he would draft Issac. We already have Simmons and Saric. We have Covington. I think he BC could draft someone like Frank N if we are sitting at 7 or 8.

[LloydFree]

Not Lloyd, but my personal preference is towards defense and KCP, though I acknowledge CJ is a better fit for this team... the thought of KCP, Cov, and Embiid on the floor at the same time, three truly elite defenders, I may stroke out before the season starts due to excitement.

For this team, until I see Embiid and Simmons on the court, I'm not picking players based on perceived fit with them. I'm picking the better talent who I have the least amount of work to build around.

[phiphan]

Spoiler:

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Lonzo looks suicidal for a guy going top 3. Must be sick as hell of his dad. He's probably praying LAL doesn't take him.