Lonzo Ball

[Johnlac1]

A lot of talk about Ball's future in the league has been centered around Philly and Lakers. Am I the only one who really wants him to go to the Suns? He's a great fit next to Booker. Suns could turn into an amazing high octane offense with Ball at the helm.

Maybe people think Bledsoe is gonna be there long term? I doubt it, personally. He's 7-8 years older than Booker, Chriss and Bender.

I have been saying this since the start of the season. LA and Philly are sexier picks but I still think the Suns are his best fit. Phoenix already has a super high paced team, then you add a shooter like Booker, then you also have Warren as well, then the two young guys that have potential as shooters as well with Chriss and Bender. I really would like to see him go to Phoenix.

"I have been saying this since the start of the season. LA and Philly are sexier picks but I still think the Suns are his best fit"

ditto.

[Prez]

Ball-Booker-Chriss would be the most entertaining young trio by far imo. Such a good fit offensively, only concern would be defensively.

[Disposable Hero]

Ball is the type of talent (along with Fultz, DSJ, Ntilikina, and Fox) that is good enough to be a fit no matter where they go.

[TKainZero]

If you don't know. Watch

Watch on YouTube

Watch Alford, holiday, and the other guard, all straight up and shoot, textbook

Ball collects on the left, brings it up on his left, transfers to his right, then shoots it. It's completely strange.the type of shot that does not look like it will go in. But, this collecting and shooting motion also makes it near impossible to shoot off the dribble goIng to his right.

How much of a problem will his be at the next level?

Will it be like a small flaw, like a steph curry step back?
Or will it become a major flaw which NBA team will be able to exploit at will? Like rondo/Rubio?


This guy has an amazing skill set, but this single flaw is huge! How huge?

[EvanZ]

The only guy who I know that ever got away with such a flawed shot was Kevin Martin. And he spent like 10 years getting to the free throw line before the rip through rule basically shut him down.

[BdeRegt]

I don't think it will be a major issue. He isn't a guy who is going to score from shooting off the dibble. He does well as a catch a shoot guy and has great range. His biggest skill is his passing. I think he is much better shooter than LeBron or Kidd were entering the league. I think he will refine it but he is able to create space and get the job done. He won't be a Curry shooting off the dribble but he will be a fine spot up shooter.

[PLO]

Its a significant issue because it stops him from scoring from mid-range, and it will also stop him from scoring from the corners. Its also significant because of the massive step up in athleticism he will face vs NBA defences AND because one of his strengths at the college level is his ability to score from bomb-range. His shot is fairly well telegraphed.

One of his big issues is his handle isn't great and the only space he's able to repeatedly make (vs sub-standard college defences for the most part) is through these huge step backs to get into what I've already called bomb-range. If you compare him to any other of the top PG prospects of this draft its obvious what he lacks in this area, let alone when you compare him to even lesser-tier PGs who play in the league, all of whom have significantly better handles and are able to get off shots from most scoring parts of the court.

That's why I really don't think he's going to succeed as a PG in the NBA - I can see him as an off-ball guy, albeit one that will start in the league with some pretty terrible defence. Its a bit of a shame because if that's the case it neutralizes his greatest strength which is his top-notch court vision, but as an off-ball guy his faulty shot is more likely to be a success in the NBA.

I think there's a place for him in the league and I think he can be successful, but I think down the track he will be viewed as a reach if he's taken in the top 3 in this draft.

[PLO]

I don't think it will be a major issue. He isn't a guy who is going to score from shooting off the dibble. He does well as a catch a shoot guy and has great range. His biggest skill is his passing. I think he is much better shooter than LeBron or Kidd were entering the league. I think he will refine it but he is able to create space and get the job done. He won't be a Curry shooting off the dribble but he will be a fine spot up shooter.

What you've described is a 2, problem is Ball is going to be drafted as a PG for the NBA.

[BdeRegt]

I don't think it will be a major issue. He isn't a guy who is going to score from shooting off the dibble. He does well as a catch a shoot guy and has great range. His biggest skill is his passing. I think he is much better shooter than LeBron or Kidd were entering the league. I think he will refine it but he is able to create space and get the job done. He won't be a Curry shooting off the dribble but he will be a fine spot up shooter.

What you've described is a 2, problem is Ball is going to be drafted as a PG for the NBA.

How did I describe a 2? I think he is a Jason Kidd/Magic Johnson type PG. He is a special kind of passer that guarantees an elite offense. My point is just that his shot means that when someone else has the ball, he isn't a liability on the defender that doesn't have to be guarded such as Rajon Rondo or Tony Allen.

[DRK]

Big problem. Other than spotups, his shooting will be extremely limited in the NBA. They will just force him off the 3 point line. He will have to develop a floater game because aint gonna be able to shoot mid range off the dribble with that release

[PLO]

I don't think it will be a major issue. He isn't a guy who is going to score from shooting off the dibble. He does well as a catch a shoot guy and has great range. His biggest skill is his passing. I think he is much better shooter than LeBron or Kidd were entering the league. I think he will refine it but he is able to create space and get the job done. He won't be a Curry shooting off the dribble but he will be a fine spot up shooter.

What you've described is a 2, problem is Ball is going to be drafted as a PG for the NBA.

How did I describe a 2? I think he is a Jason Kidd/Magic Johnson type PG. He is a special kind of passer that guarantees an elite offense. My point is just that his shot means that when someone else has the ball, he isn't a liability on the defender that doesn't have to be guarded such as Rajon Rondo or Tony Allen.

"off-ball", "catch and shoot" are descriptors of SGs? Besides which where are Ball's other PG skills needed now in the league?

The Jason Kidd comp is reasonable given Kidd was pretty bad from mid-range but quite good from 3 point - but Kidd was at least creating his own mid-range shots/rim shots - you could count on the fingers of one hand the mid range/close shots Ball has created for himself in the half court this entire season. The reason for this is Kidd's handles were far and away better than Ball's such there really is no comparison.

The Magic comp isn't really a good one given Magic's size and Magic's ability to create his own shot from all three levels (admittedly was poor from 3 point though in an era when it wasn't really a factor) - one of Magics best games in his career he played as a centre. He was a superb scorer/facilitator from the mid-range on, whereas Ball is almost a non-factor there.

Really the only connection between the three is that they've all played at PG and all have elite vision. Ball is missing those other characteristics that made those players current/future HOFamers.

[sikma42]

The difference between Ball and Kidd or Magic in terms of passing is their PICK AND ROLL play. Those guys excelled at that and Ball struggles. He also isn't doesn't seem too compensate breaking his man down of the dribble and making non lob plays.

I don't think he is that level of passer. Kendall Marshall and Rubio were better pure passers


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[CptCrunch]

Ball will likely never be a dominant scorer. Better shooting Ricky Rubio is like his likely projection, maybe a bit worse on defense, possibly a lot better on offense (yes, that is what I meant to type). I do know Rubio is a top 5 floor general/passer in the league.

Not concerned about his shot. I'm starting to get a little concerned about his ability to break down defense against NBA caliber guards.

[sikma42]

Ball will likely never be a dominant scorer. Better shooting Ricky Rubio is like his likely projection, maybe a bit worse on defense, possibly a lot better on offense (yes, that is what I meant to type). I do know Rubio is a top 5 floor general/passer in the league.

Not concerned about his shot. I'm starting to get a little concerned about his ability to break down defense against NBA caliber guards.

Rubio has a much better handle and is a much better pick and roll passer. It's just a tough comparison. Ball greatest attribute is pushing tempo, how that transitions s going to be determined a lot by who drafts him


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[zzaj]

In today's NBA you could argue that these are the most important skills for a PG (in no particular order):

1) Outside shooting
2) PnR play
3) Enough quickness or 'shake' to attack defenders off the dribble

IMO, Lonzo will struggle with all 3 of these in the NBA. His BBIQ, length and passing ability put him as a possible Starter in the right system, or backup on a good team territory, long-term. 12/5/7 in the NBA

[HotelVitale]

The Jason Kidd comp is reasonable given Kidd was pretty bad from mid-range but quite good from 3 point ..

Careful with that. Ball has a MUCH better 3pt game than Kidd did at his age, not remotely comparable. Kidd shot 28% on 3s his freshman year, while Ball is over 41% on over 5 attempts per game, and he has tremendous range. I don't think anyone would've said Kidd was 'quite good' from 3pt range until almost a decade later when he was on the Nets.

[HotelVitale]

In today's NBA you could argue that these are the most important skills for a PG (in no particular order):
1) Outside shooting
2) PnR play
3) Enough quickness or 'shake' to attack defenders off the dribble
IMO, Lonzo will struggle with all 3 of these in the NBA. His BBIQ, length and passing ability put him as a possible Starter in the right system, or backup on a good team territory, long-term. 12/5/7 in the NBA

Looks like you've created some strange caricature of Ball. I don't love Ball but 1) he's one of the best 3pt shooters in the country this year and 3) he has more than enough quickness to get into the lane. You just made two of his strengths into weaknesses.

There's plenty to be uncomfortable about with Ball--for instance 2) his complete lack of experience and comfort playing the pnr--but you're making your analysis far too easy. He's coming in with a basically elite 3pt shot, excellent body control, and great driving ability, in addition to the vision, size, and transition game you mentioned. He's much harder to project than what you're suggesting.

[zzaj]

In today's NBA you could argue that these are the most important skills for a PG (in no particular order):
1) Outside shooting
2) PnR play
3) Enough quickness or 'shake' to attack defenders off the dribble
IMO, Lonzo will struggle with all 3 of these in the NBA. His BBIQ, length and passing ability put him as a possible Starter in the right system, or backup on a good team territory, long-term. 12/5/7 in the NBA

Looks like you've created some strange caricature of Ball. I don't love Ball but 1) he's one of the best 3pt shooters in the country this year and 3) he has more than enough quickness to get into the lane. You just made two of his strengths into weaknesses.

There's plenty to be uncomfortable about with Ball--for instance 2) his complete lack of experience and comfort playing the pnr--but you're making your analysis far too easy. He's coming in with a basically elite 3pt shot, excellent body control, and great driving ability, in addition to the vision, size, and transition game you mentioned. He's much harder to project than what you're suggesting.

I take it you're in the 'shot release no problem at all' camp--how'd his "basically elite 3pt shot" do for him in his last win-or-go-home game?

The "caricature" I've created is the same one everyone is creating based on how they envision his skill set will translate in the NBA...good or bad, it's all opinion until he proves otherwise. If you don't think 12/5/7 is fair for Ball, what do you see him averaging?

I don't think he's easy to project in the NBA, and I certainly didn't mean to suggest that was so. He's a very unique player. We could go deep into what his FG% at the rim against NBA shotblockers will look like, or his lack of shown mid-range game, or how he's going to break down NBA defenders/defenses off the dribble, or how his passing vision will translate against NBA quickness/length/IQ, or if he'll be able to stay in front of basically any current NBA PG...my initial post was a snapshot of my thoughts on all of this, not a suggestion that he's easy to project in the NBA.

And for the record, I hope I'm wrong and you're right. It's been a while since the NBA has had a highly touted prospect at the PG position with Ball's passing ability. That makes for a good NBA.

[GlenRiceARoni]

I think he's going to be a great player. Potentially an all time great even.

His shot is mainly an issue because he can't shoot if he goes right due to the unconventional form. So he nearly always goes left and utilizes the step back. The problem is the step back is more like 26-27 feet in the NBA and it's tough to shoot a high percentage if those are a lot of your looks.

He really struggled in the pick n roll in college despite very nimble, dunking big men. Thats really the biggest concern.

But his ability to grab rebounds and get out in transition will be huge. He's lethal in transition and he makes something out of nothing on many halfcourt lobs, backdoors, etc. He's also good at just moving the ball quickly so the ball doesn't stick and the next guy can make the pass or drive.

Pair him up some athletic bigs and with another halfcourt playmaker like Hayward or a combo guard and you'll have quite the offense.


Nearly everyone has to adapt to the higher shot release in the NBA. I don't think his form will be a huge deal ultimately. First year it definitely will cause him an issue as it does for many rookies.
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[TKainZero]

Poll results are kinda shocking...

Wish it was 200 votes not 20