2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread Volume 2

[eagereyez]

Not Lloyd, but my personal preference is towards defense and KCP, though I acknowledge CJ is a better fit for this team... the thought of KCP, Cov, and Embiid on the floor at the same time, three truly elite defenders, I may stroke out before the season starts due to excitement.

KCP's DRPM the last 4 years:

-0.66
0.52
-0.38
-0.82

Beal's DRPM the last 4 years:

-0.57
-2.53 (did injuries play a role in this?)
0.55
-0.53

So they've had similar defensive impact other than that outlier year in '15/'16. Similar defensive impact, yet one is considered an elite defender and the other a defensive sieve, when the reality is that they're both pretty neutral on that end.

Great post. There's an unreasonable amount of hate for Beal on this board, when in reality, our team would be extremely lucky to have him.

Yeah I don't get it either. They're similar defensively, but offensively Beal is much better than KCP. Maybe Beal's negative reputation as a defender comes from his box score metrics, which look bad, but are a poor indicator of defense.

[76ciology]

I just realized..

If Suns ends up with Lonzo Ball. They'd try to run a poor man's version of splash bros with a backcourt of Ball-Booker.

[aHealthy3]

Bradley Beal generates about as much value as a 1-tool trash defender can provide and he's still doing so at a full point below what Wall and Porter are.

Bradley Beal is lucky to be able to play between two studs that play both ends at a high level.

That Wizards team would be scary beyond comprehension if they swapped Beal for Caldwell-Pope.

Why so much Beal hate in here? I really think you are underestimating Beal's offensive impact in making this Wizards team the offensive juggernaut they (sometimes) are. His scoring and gravity may be as much of a reason for Wall having a career year as Wall is a reason for Beal having a career year.

First time the guy has really been healthy for a full season, and he's scoring 23 ppg on 60% TS. Shooting the lights out and making strides as a playmaker. Defense is a negative but it's really not even that bad. Sure, KCP's defense is better but he's not even putting up great metrics on that end. In fact, ESPN's DRPM has Beal at a -0.57 and KCP at a -0.66 this year - and that's with KCP having the luxury of a rim protector behind him that Beal doesn't have. Honestly, Porter is probably benefiting more offensively from his presence and spacing than vice versa, although Wall is obviously the engine.

With KCP instead of Beal this Wizards team would only be marginally better defensively and lose a huge chunk of efficient scoring. They'd be significantly worse off.

Beal is really good, and young. He's shown his ability to become a star in the league since the 2014 playoffs, we just haven't seen him fully healthy until this year. We would be extremely lucky if he ever became available.

[LloydFree]

I just realized..

If Suns ends up with Lonzo Ball. They'd try to run a poor man's version of splash bros with a backcourt of Ball-Booker.

Both the Lakers and Sun's would be doing it, only both splash brothers would be over 6'5.

Honestly, I think Phoenix should take Josh Jackson, no matter which pick they get.

[aHealthy3]

Fwiw: per NBAWowy, Otto Porter shoots 67% TS with Beal on, and 54% TS with Beal off. Beal: 60% with Porter on, 60% with Porter off. Kinda ridiculous to insinuate that Beal's production is more of a result of Porter's play than vice versa.

[Kobblehead]

Why so much Beal hate in here?

Bradley Beal is a really good scorer. However, he's awful on the defensive end and he doesn't distribute. There's only so much value those types of 1 note players can provide. In Beal's credit, he's operating at the high end of that 1 tool, trash defense spectrum. That's not hating, that's actually my version of being complimentary towards him.

It's a metrical fact that he doesn't generate as much value as his two-way teammates John Wall and Otto Porter, though.

We wouldn't be lucky with a player like Bradley Beal. We'd be adequately fortunate. He'd be on my trade block the entire time he was here.

[Kolkmania]

Bradley Beal generates about as much value as a 1-tool trash defender can provide and he's still doing so at a full point below what Wall and Porter are.

Bradley Beal is lucky to be able to play between two studs that play both ends at a high level.

That Wizards team would be scary beyond comprehension if they swapped Beal for Caldwell-Pope.

Why so much Beal hate in here? I really think you are underestimating Beal's offensive impact in making this Wizards team the offensive juggernaut they (sometimes) are. His scoring and gravity may be as much of a reason for Wall having a career year as Wall is a reason for Beal having a career year.

First time the guy has really been healthy for a full season, and he's scoring 23 ppg on 60% TS. Shooting the lights out and making strides as a playmaker. Defense is a negative but it's really not even that bad. Sure, KCP's defense is better but he's not even putting up great metrics on that end. In fact, ESPN's DRPM has Beal at a -0.57 and KCP at a -0.66 this year - and that's with KCP having the luxury of a rim protector behind him that Beal doesn't have. Honestly, Porter is probably benefiting more offensively from his presence and spacing than vice versa, although Wall is obviously the engine.

With KCP instead of Beal this Wizards team would only be marginally better defensively and lose a huge chunk of efficient scoring. They'd be significantly worse off.

Beal is really good, and young. He's shown his ability to become a star in the league since the 2014 playoffs, we just haven't seen him fully healthy until this year. We would be extremely lucky if he ever became available.

Beal is making progress, shooting less long 2 pointers, highest FTr of his career and best shooting year of his career. However he's still a horrible rebounder and defensively a negative on the court. Marcin Gortat is perhaps not the player he was a few years ago, but he's a far better rim protector than Andre Drummond.

I like Bradley Beal as a floor spacer, but I hate the idea spending 25% of the cap space on a one-dimensional player. I haven't seen enough of Detroit/KCP to make an accurate comparison between the two.

[shawn_hemp]

I cant wait until the Sixers draft Monk and you come in here like

[Kobblehead]

but I hate the idea spending 25% of the cap space on a one-dimensional player.

Ding Ding. This ties into my point in having imperfect players in key roles within the team and organization. So few people get the nuance of this concept.

[shawn_hemp]

what just about all of you wanted to give Noel a max

you guys all use the "dont read into tournament games too much" reasoning when it fits your agenda

Apparently Sindarius Thornwell is a lotto pick now?

[aHealthy3]

Why so much Beal hate in here?

Bradley Beal is a really good scorer. However, he's awful on the defensive end and he doesn't distribute. There's only so much value those types of 1 note players can provide. In Beal's credit, he's operating at the high end of that 1 tool, trash defense spectrum. That's not hating, that's actually my version of being complimentary towards him.

It's a metrical fact that he doesn't generate as much value as his two-way teammates John Wall and Otto Porter, though.

We wouldn't be lucky with a player like Bradley Beal. We'd be adequately fortunate. He'd be on my trade block the entire time he was here.

Let me preface this post by saying I live in the DC area and have watched probably 75% of their games this season. No disrespect, but I would venture to guess that's more than just about anyone on this board.

First - I don't really get where you are getting this idea that Beal is so awful defensively that he's a net negative or something. He's not even close to that, there's only a few matchups that truly expose him, other than that he's fine. Per DRPM, SGs he's above this year: KCP, Shump, Courtney Lee, Brogdon, Avery Bradley, etc. Not a stopper, but not at all worse than other scoring guards in the league.

Doesn't distribute? Well, ok, first, that's not really his role. But if you want to get into that, these are their assist rates of the last 4 years.

Beal: 16, 15, 15.6, 16.4
KCP: 5, 6.8, 7.8, 11.8

KCP having a career year in this regard and still not even close to Beal. For comparison a guy like CJ McCollum who's perceived as a combo guard has a 17.9 assist rate this year. Beal's improved a lot in this regard, and is actually above average here for shooting guards.

Porter generates more value than Beal? While Porter is having a super efficient year (and, in all likelihood, a pretty big shooting outlier year that is inflating a bunch of his metrics), I will go ahead and strongly disagree there. See my post above - Porter 67% TS with Beal on, 54% TS with Beal off. Beal: 60% with Porter on, 60% with Porter off. It's not Beal who is reliant on Porter to thrive, it's more of the opposite, although neither would be as efficient without Wall, obviously. Would also contend your supposed position that Porter is some top level defender. He gets bullied by a lot of bigger SF's, and DRPM has him as a very small positive. I won't argue with you that Wall is more valuable, Wall has been a top 10 player in the league this season.

Again, I maintain that Beal is really good and there's a reason the Wizards maxed him out and stuck through a couple injury riddled years. They're reaping the benefits.

Beal is making progress, shooting less long 2 pointers, highest FTr of his career and best shooting year of his career. However he's still a horrible rebounder and defensively a negative on the court. Marcin Gortat is perhaps not the player he was a few years ago, but he's a far better rim protector than Andre Drummond.

I like Bradley Beal as a floor spacer, but I hate the idea spending 25% of the cap space on a one-dimensional player. I haven't seen enough of Detroit/KCP to make an accurate comparison between the two.

I have no problem maxing out a player like Beal with some of the contracts that are happening in the league right now. Really don't care about Beal's rebounding. As far as Drummond/Gortat, I admittedly haven't seen much of Drummond this year. But Gortat has struggled in rim protection, particularly in the 2nd half.

[Kolkmania]

what just about all of you wanted to give Noel a max

you guys all use the "dont read into tournament games too much" reasoning when it fits your agenda

Apparently Sindarius Thornwell is a lotto pick now?

Personally I'd rather re(!)sign a historically good defensive 23 year old center than sign a one-dimensional shooter. Nerlens Noel isn't a liability on offense, he's a capable passer and his presence as a lob threat is valuable as well.
Is he worth a max contract? I would have hated to lose Nerlens for nothing, so I'd probably match any offer. That said, this is purely from an asset standpoint so we can trade him later on, in the long run it's not ideal to give a 25 million dollar contract to your backup center.

[Sixerscan]

Why so much Beal hate in here?

Bradley Beal is a really good scorer. However, he's awful on the defensive end and he doesn't distribute. There's only so much value those types of 1 note players can provide. In Beal's credit, he's operating at the high end of that 1 tool, trash defense spectrum. That's not hating, that's actually my version of being complimentary towards him.

It's a metrical fact that he doesn't generate as much value as his two-way teammates John Wall and Otto Porter, though.

We wouldn't be lucky with a player like Bradley Beal. We'd be adequately fortunate. He'd be on my trade block the entire time he was here.

i have to say this is one of the few times I've ever seen someone act like it's an absolute fact that beal is garbage defensively. Wizards are actually 4 points better on defense with him on the court (better than wall or porter). That's probably overstating his value, he can't switch around or anything very well but when it comes to covering 2 guards he's perfectly adequate.

This "metrical fact" doesn't really check out. They're all within a half point of each other when it comes to overall RPM, which is well within statistical noise. Beal has a better PER than porter, more win shares/48 than wall. He has easily the best net plus minus on the team. He also plays probably the shallowest position in the league so his relative value there may be greater than just the raw numbers.

Calling something like scoring 23 a night on 60% true shooting a "one note player" is a little much. Yes he's not averaging 5 assists per game, he's on the same team as John wall, that's not the type of offense they run. I notice you don't seem to knock Otto porter for that when he probably has entire games where he dribbles less than 10 times.

[Kobblehead]

You're missing the point by being compelled to compare KCP and Beal's distributing. KCP isn't a 1 note scoring guard. He's a 2-way player. Bradley Beal is a trash defender. Him not being able to bring multiple offensive tools to the table to help compensate for his inability to defend is the point.

KCP's low distributing marks would only be a problem if he wasn't the defender he is. He would basically be Gary Harris, if that was the case. Still a good player, but far less desirable.

[aHealthy3]

You're missing the point by being compelled to compare KCP and Beal's distributing. KCP isn't a 1 note scoring guard. He's a 2-way player. Bradley Beal is a trash defender. Him not being able to bring multiple offensive tools to the table to help compensate for his inability to defend is the point.

KCP's low distributing marks would only be a problem if he wasn't the defender he is. He would basically be Gary Harris, if that was the case. Still a good player, but far less desirable.

The gap between KCP and Beal's defense comes nowhere near covering the absolute canyon gap that is the difference in their offensive value. There are about zero metrics that support the notion of KCP being more valuable on a basketball court than Bradley Beal.

[Kobblehead]

Where did Nerlens Noel come from? I thought the agreed upon route of action there would be to match whatever offersheet he got and then look to move him with 2 to 3 years left on his deal (1 or so years later).

[Kobblehead]

Mid-volume scorers that are 2-way players will always be better building blocks than high volume scorers that suck on the defensive end. Especially when the latter doesn't even have combo guard skills.

[Kolkmania]

I have no problem maxing out a player like Beal with some of the contracts that are happening in the league right now. Really don't care about Beal's rebounding. As far as Drummond/Gortat, I admittedly haven't seen much of Drummond this year. But Gortat has struggled in rim protection, particularly in the 2nd half.

Well the Pistons are a far worse team with Drummond on the court than with him off the court. His DFG% around the rim is among the worst centers in the league, which is quite impressive since he's a physical miracle with his weight and wingspan.
Stan van Gundy even benched him in the final minutes of the game, not because his abysmal FT%, but because of his horrendous defense compared to Baynes. That tells enough.

Not sure if pointing towards other contracts in the league is a valid argument. Standing pat and being conservative with our cap space could turn out as a huge advantage in the future. Look at the financial mess in Portland/Milwaukee (especially prior to their trades)/Lakers/etc.

That said, let's go back to discussing draft prospects. If Malik Monk turns into a Bradley Beal caliber player, you're getting excellent value for a mid-lottery pick.

[aHealthy3]

Mid-volume scorers that are 2-way players will always be better building blocks than high volume scorers that suck on the defensive end. Especially when the latter doesn't even have combo guard skills.

As far as I'm concerned, "2-way player" is a useless label when Beal's aggregate value on both ends is far greater than KCP's by all available metrics. Beal is a top 5 if not 3 SG, and is 23 years old. Probably 80% of the league would happily max him. KCP may not even find 1 max offer sheet. It's not a coincidence.

[Kobblehead]

If Malik Monk had the handle to dance on defenders and slash to the rim at will like Beal did at Florida, we'd have seen it. He was out there playing 32 minutes a game with a full green light.