Game 74: Washington Wizards (45-28) @ Los Angeles Lakers (21-52) - 10:30 PM ET

[Kilroy]

Making special passes is a cherry on top--the guy is a scorer.

Not an elite one. If he showed he can consistently drive to the basket and get to the line like Harden or Westbrook, or hit threes at a 40%+ rate like Curry or Thompson, then you can roll with Russell as an elite scorer and everything else would be gravy.

But aside from Lebron, Harden, Ginobili, I don't who can throw passes like Russell. It's a shame; I don't know why he couldn't average close to 10 a game. His vision and passing are that good.

Regardless, for the welfare of our team, Russell makes a far greater impact on his teammates when hes looking to make plays. He makes them better.

College draft year numbers:

Russell: 30.6% shots, 156 FTA, 284 2PA, 231 3PA - Total 671 - TS% 57.3
Harden: 26.9% shots, 224 FTA, 264 2PA, 108 3PA - Total 596 - TS% 63.2
Westbrook: 21.5% shots, 150 FTA, 314 2PA, 77 3PA - Total 618 - TS% 53.8
DeRozan - 24% shots, 147 FTA, 331 2PA, 36 3PA - Total 514 - TS% 55.5
Thompson - 33.4% shots, 185 FTA, 305 2PA, 246 3PA - Total 736 - TS% 57.4
Curry - 38.3% shots, 251 FTA, 351 2PA, 336 3PA - Total 938 - TS% 60.4
Durant - 34.3% shots, 256 FTA, 444 2PA, 203 3PA - Total 903 - TS% 58.7
George - 28.3% shots, 132 FTA, 196 2PA, 167 3PA - Total 495 - TS% 57.2

Why not?

Russell's no where near as athletic as Harden, Westbrook, DeRozan, Thompson, Durant or George... And at 20, he's already got questionable knees... He may have Curry's level of athleticism but that may be debatable, because to me Curry looks more fluid, which is a pretty good sign he's got more in the tank than Russell.

I could see Russell shooting and passing like Curry in a couple years... But I don't think he'll ever have the same universal impact as the rest of those guys.

Slava may be right... Like Curry, you need to surround him with the right pieces to make him shine... But that may go for just about every star out there except apparently Westbrook and LeBron.

I think Russell's future and ceiling is going to depend on how much of a student of the game he is, and how many weapons he can add to his attack year over year...
Because right now, I think defenses are basically letting him do his thing, but as he gets more effective and becomes more of a threat, they're going to start game-planning more for him... And without elite athleticism, he's going to have to out-smart and out-skill them... That takes elite commitment, and I think the jury's still out on that with Russell.

He's been playing damn well down the stretch... Still a little inconsistent, but a lot better. That's easier when you have nothing to lose like the Lakers right now... But it's at least a big step in the right direction.

It will be really interesting how he adjusts to a new Rookie like Ball coming in and not only taking the ball out of his hands, but also just by the nature of their positions, taking a big chunk of the on court leadership out of his hands too. Obviously not a problem if we don't get the pick or don't get Ball... But that would be the best case scenario for us I think.

I guess, I'm not completely ready to write him into the 2 spot just yet. This off season could change a lot of things for him in particular. So I think the projections based on the last month or so, might be way off.

[danfantastk32]

I guess, I'm not completely ready to write him into the 2 spot just yet. This off season could change a lot of things for him in particular. So I think the projections based on the last month or so, might be way off.

The whole X-factor here is our lotto pick. If we lose it...then none of this matters.

[milesfides]

It's hard to fault him for not driving like harden when harden plays with 4 of the best shooters on the league. That's the best example of a team constructed to get the best out of one player and we are far away from doing anything remotely close to that to help Russell succeed.

Harden was playing like that even as a backup for OKC. He showed us in the playoffs, twice, when he cut us up like our defense didn't exist. He's special at getting to the rim and to the line. Not just statistically... he is a wizard using his dribble, footwork, and athleticism. It's not pretty good, he's the best in the league at it. If you're saying D'Angelo would play like James Harden and suddenly get an unstoppable euro step and get to the line 10 times a if he had better shooters...I don't know, man. I don't know how that could be objective.

[milesfides]

If we want to pinpoint what 'elite' skill will help Russell become an 'elite' scorer, it's his handle and quick release.

How do you rate his handle as elite when he's not getting to the basket or creating shots at any level beyond "good"? How do you rate his quick release as elite when his shooting numbers are just "good"?

[milesfides]

You don't have to be elite at something to be an elite player..... Being good at a lot of different things will do that in itself.

Like who? Who's an elite player without an elite skill? Doesn't exist.

[milesfides]

Oh, and believe me, I want D'Angelo to be great. But messing with his position and starting/bench weren't good signs at all.

There's definitely uncertainly about his game.

If we get Ball, I think that's a problem. Russell needs the ball. Not Ball.

[TyCobb]

If we want to pinpoint what 'elite' skill will help Russell become an 'elite' scorer, it's his handle and quick release.

How do you rate his handle as elite when he's not getting to the basket or creating shots at any level beyond "good"? How do you rate his quick release as elite when his shooting numbers are just "good"?

I don't know how you expect me to answer the first part.... 'creating shots at any level beyond 'good'? What??!

The kid is young, we are projecting here. The more comfortable he gets in his role, the %'s go up--we're already seeing it.

Pre-all star - 5/12.7 39.2 FG%, 2/5.6 34.9% 3P%
Post-all star - 7.4/16.5 44.7 FG%, 2.8/7.3 37.9 3P%

[Kilroy]

I guess, I'm not completely ready to write him into the 2 spot just yet. This off season could change a lot of things for him in particular. So I think the projections based on the last month or so, might be way off.

The whole X-factor here is our lotto pick. If we lose it...then none of this matters.

No, that's just part of it... Russell has a lot to work on this off season, including physical strength and endurance... That can completely transform a 20yo's game, for the good or bad. I think this might be the trans-formative summer for Russell. So the draft is only part of what I was talking about.
It's a factor for sure though.

[milesfides]

If we want to pinpoint what 'elite' skill will help Russell become an 'elite' scorer, it's his handle and quick release.

How do you rate his handle as elite when he's not getting to the basket or creating shots at any level beyond "good"? How do you rate his quick release as elite when his shooting numbers are just "good"?

I don't know how you expect me to answer the first part.... 'creating shots at any level beyond 'good'? What??!

The kid is young, we are projecting here. The more comfortable he gets in his role, the %'s go up--we're already seeing it.

Pre-all star - 5/12.7 39.2 FG%, 2/5.6 34.9% 3P%
Post-all star - 7.4/16.5 44.7 FG%, 2.8/7.3 37.9 3P%

What are you doing, grading on a curve?

None of those numbers are elite. And post all-star? We're talking about a little over a month. Almost all the elite players, by their sophomore years as starters, were showing elite skills and numbers. Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, anybody. You can't include Harden and Kobe because they come off the bench. But starters? Yes, almost all of the elite players showed eliteness by Russell's age, year, and opportunity.

[TyCobb]

Miles, I know you're more intelligent than how you're approaching this case.

And by Russell's age, that's just false. These guys didn't blow up till they were 22 (Westbrook), 23 (Harden), 24 (Curry).

[milesfides]

I could say the same...

But if we're holding D'angelo to that standard, then we have to judge him based on that. And not give him training wheels. Look, I was very bullish on D'angelo after last season. That changed this year, because he just didn't improve enough under players dream Luke Walton.

Anyways, evaluating how good Russell can be is especially important considering the draft, where the top 2 picks are (potentially elite) point guards.

It's not inconsequential. Because if you get Ball or Fultz, you've got to figure out if it's worth playing out the experiment of playing two point guards in the backcourt and risk reducing player value, or moving the pick or Russell before next season.

By the way, I don't think any championship team won with two point guards in the backcourt.

[milesfides]

Miles, I know you're more intelligent than how you're approaching this case.

And by Russell's age, that's just false. These guys didn't blow up till they were 22 (Westbrook), 23 (Harden), 24 (Curry).

Who said anything about blowing up? Demonstrate elite skill - yes. Curry stepped onto the floor as one of the best 3 point shooters as a rookie and Westbrook was among assist leaders in his soph year.

[TyCobb]

Miles, I know you're more intelligent than how you're approaching this case.

And by Russell's age, that's just false. These guys didn't blow up till they were 22 (Westbrook), 23 (Harden), 24 (Curry).

Who said anything about blowing up? Demonstrate elite skill - yes. Curry stepped onto the floor as one of the best 3 point shooters as a rookie and Westbrook was among assist leaders in his soph year.

Exactly. These guys showed that they can create high level shots for others. The %'s... the same. The PTS... the same? The difference the AST. The one area you think he can be exceptional, but that's coming from where?!.

[milesfides]

Because not all things can be reduced to stats. His lack of passing has less to do with ability than mentality. That's the eye test.

Watching him play, seeing how he passes when he wants to? That's special. It's a gift how he can whip that ball, see angles, etc. It's a shame he doesn't do it more often, but you can see why when he's jacking up 10 threes a game.

[TyCobb]

At the end of the day, I think Russell takes a huge jump next season. And by the jump, I mean he'll average 22-24 points a game. I also believe he'll average 25 points a game before he ever hits 7 assists a game.

Because not all things can be reduced to stats.

None of those numbers are elite. And post all-star? We're talking about a little over a month. Almost all the elite players, by their sophomore years as starters, were showing elite skills and numbers.

[iamworthy]

At the end of the day, I think Russell takes a huge jump next season. And by the jump, I mean he'll average 22-24 points a game. I also believe he'll average 25 points a game before he ever hits 7 assists a game.

Agree, if he gets the minutes.

[milesfides]

Yeah but so what? Many 25 ppg scorers don't win. How is he controlling a game? Can he lead a championship team? Can he win a game when his shot isn't falling? There's so much that goes into that.

I guess I'm sounding harsh, but when you take a cold hard look at the best players on championship teams, you realIze these guys are the best players in the game.

Dangelo Russell has to be a hall of famer. He has to bury Lebron, Durant, Steph curry, kawhi leonard, etc. you know what I'm saying? He has to kill these great teams.

Got to take a hard look. That's all I'm saying, otherwise you're investing a whole decade and building around a loser, no matter how close he gets. Close 2nd doesn't matter.

[TyCobb]

Yeah but so what? Many 25 ppg scorers don't win. How is he controlling a game? Can he lead a championship team? Can he win a game when his shot isn't falling? There's so much that goes into that.

I guess I'm sounding harsh, but when you take a cold hard look at the best players on championship teams, you realIze these guys are the best players in the game.

Dangelo Russell has to be a hall of famer. He has to bury Lebron, Durant, Steph curry, kawhi leonard, etc. you know what I'm saying? He has to kill these great teams.

Got to take a hard look. That's all I'm saying, otherwise you're investing a whole decade and building around a loser, no matter how close he gets. Close 2nd doesn't matter.

The argument was Russell's potential impact as a scorer vs. playmaker. I won't defend the guy in saying that he'll be the best in the game as an overall player. A lot of those guys play defense...can't say the same about the 20 year old Russ right now.

You HAVE to build around him to be a successful playmaker. You DO NOT have to build around him to be a successful scorer.

[danfantastk32]

Yeah but so what? Many 25 ppg scorers don't win. How is he controlling a game? Can he lead a championship team? Can he win a game when his shot isn't falling? There's so much that goes into that.

I guess I'm sounding harsh, but when you take a cold hard look at the best players on championship teams, you realIze these guys are the best players in the game.

Dangelo Russell has to be a hall of famer. He has to bury Lebron, Durant, Steph curry, kawhi leonard, etc. you know what I'm saying? He has to kill these great teams.

Got to take a hard look. That's all I'm saying, otherwise you're investing a whole decade and building around a loser, no matter how close he gets. Close 2nd doesn't matter.

I completely agree with you. We drafted him #2. You don't take the 2nd - pick in the draft hoping for Goran Dragic.....you want CP3. You don't always get that.....but that's what your hoping for. You really gotta judge harshly if your deciding whether or not a guy is the face of a franchise...or even a key piece.

Maybe he isn't a leader? Maybe he's just really talented? I'm curious to see how he plays if we got someone else who would fill that role, and leave him to just play his game. Hopefully we get Fultz/Ball.....and we'll get a chance to see.

I do think you need to give these guys (especially Ingram) some more time before anything definitive is declared. But I will not be satisfied with decent numbers on a 20-win team. At some point your talents need to lead to wins....or else your not elite. It's harsh....but it's true.

Take a guy like A-Davis: Where's the beef? This guy is supposed to be 3rd - 5th best in the league. Really? How can anyone say that after 3-4 years of no wins? At some point you have to accuse a guy of being a "stat-filler". It's a little harder for bigs...as they don't control the ball....I get it. But 30 wins?? An elite player finds a way. A-Davis is out of excuses, as far as I'm concerned. You have to look at him, and wonder where he's capable of taking the pelicans. Cause it don't look far.

Same for Russell. He's gonna hold the Lakers to some lofty expectations come contract time....don't anyone doubt it. But in my opinion...he needs to improve ALOT. $25mil is a quarter of your roster cap-space. You dont just throw that at a "really nice" player. There has to be something above and beyond to his game. Otherwise your just screwing yourself.

[TylersLakers]

Making special passes is a cherry on top--the guy is a scorer.

He is, but not an elite one. If he showed he can consistently drive to the basket and get to the line like Harden or Westbrook, or hit threes at a 40%+ rate like Curry or Thompson, then you can roll with Russell as an elite scorer and everything else would be gravy.

But aside from Lebron, Harden, Ginobili, I don't who can throw passes like Russell. It's a shame; I don't know why he couldn't average close to 10 a game. His vision and passing are that good.

Regardless, for the welfare of our team, Russell makes a far greater impact on his teammates when hes looking to make plays. He makes them better.

If Russell is going to become a top 5 player in the league, it'll have to be through his passing.

He probably won't suddenly become a 45% three point shooter or get to the line 10 times a night.

This team needs a huge uplift of shooting for him to accomplish that. The fact that he got 9 on this team in 39 minutes is equivalent to getting 15+ assists on any other team in the league.