Tankapolooza: Draft Lottery Odds/Watch thread

[drsd]

Orlando needs a SF. There are a couple ace prospects and one almost-ace prospect.

But those stating "player X" will be a star, there is no sure fire "Kevin Durant" or "Anthony Davis" in this draft. There is probably a star, maybe two or three, but no one player in this draft is certain for stardom.

What this draft has is 10-or-so "sure starters". And it also has depth to "quality bench" well into the early 2nd round.

If Orlando gets a star up top and uses the other picks to shore up the bench, this team has all the other pieces to start winning critical games.


..

[darthcheech2000]

Ball has come out and said his dad mispoke.

Every player has a favorite team and a favorite city. Few DEMAND from day one that they play for no other team.

Kobe is a special kind of immature little bitch. Lucky for him, he was also a special kind of basketball talent.

But, and i'm not trying to be difficult, you mention him as an example of a player worth bringing on, despite the baggage. It wasn't worth it for the Charlotte Hornets.

Lonzo Ball's Performance at workouts will cover it up his fathers distractions, but how much?

I'm talking about Kobe as a Laker. He was frustrating to play with. Shaq-Kobe had something great going on. I'm not putting all the blame on Kobe but he was a big part of that downfall. But the Lakers tolerated him because of his talent.

I don't think Ball will be on Kobe's level. But he doesn't have to be. He just has to be better than the guys in this class. If we think he is, the baggage doesn't matter.

All of these guys have their crap.

Just as long as we can agree that we'd be the Charlotte Hornets in a Kobe like story.

[EAS Law]

Ball has a lot of talent, but there are question marks about how his shot and style of play will translate to the modern NBA. If those are your concerns then that it understandable.

But if you are passing on a believed to be better talent because their dad talks a lot ... wow.

The reason it matters is because you don't want to place the hopes and future of your franchise on a guy that is going to do everything in their power to place you in a position to trade them where they want to go.

From what I see of Lonzo, he seems like a quiet kid that I notice really looks up to his dad like a best friend. You can see this by how he reacts to the stupid things his dad says in interviews. Lonzo is probably a good dude, but if his father determines that your team isn't doing what he wants to do, all it will take is a bit of influence and you have a train wreck on your hands.

Remember Dwight? There wasn't much reason for him to destroy our franchise when he did. He had people in his circle that convinced him he could be the face of the NBA but for Orlando. That's what happens.

And yet if you did the '04 NBA Draft over again, I would draft Dwight every single time and you would too. If you think his talent level is that high, you draft him.

Dwight was never rumored to be interested in playing exclusively for the Lakers leading up to the draft, and members of his circle only became involved once he became a success in Orlando.

What I'm saying is, if there is substantial evidence that drafting this guy will lead to a distraction or split BEFORE you call his name, it would probably be best to look at other options first.

[axl_c_cool]

And yet if you did the '04 NBA Draft over again, I would draft Dwight every single time and you would too. If you think his talent level is that high, you draft him.

Exactly. Do you pass on Dwight for Okafor because he likes LA and Atlanta? We lost Dwight but we had fun while he was here and we reached heights Okafor never would have taken us to.

Again, I don't know if Ball offers the same talent but if you think he does you take him and don't think twice.

I agree.

Orlando will never the draw LA or Miami is for 19 year old millionaires, but the best way to counteract that is to try and assemble a winner while they are here to make them want to be here.

A poster a few posts above compared Ball to CP3 - but said they wouldn't take him because 7 years wouldn't be enough. Couldn't disagree more.

Obviously you have a right to disagree, my point on that is that the all time greats haven't really won in less than 7, Lebron, MJ, etc. Taking Ball and lets say he is on Paul's level trajectory for 7 years, he's only going to take us to the playoffs for 3-4 years and the likelihood of winning is remote. Add the distraction of Lavor to wanting to go to LA and we are possibly back to 2012 in 2024 and starting again. We need a CP3 level talent, we need talent full stop, but the most sustainable model's in basketball are based around culture and reputation. The Spurs, Heat, and even a middle of the pack franchises like the Hawks and Grizzles have a model and management that keeps them competitive (to various degrees). I understand you wanting talent (I want it to) but an unproven rookie who already wants to play in LA vs another rookie and the chance to start to build a team and culture. No contest for me

[Skin]

The reason it matters is because you don't want to place the hopes and future of your franchise on a guy that is going to do everything in their power to place you in a position to trade them where they want to go.

From what I see of Lonzo, he seems like a quiet kid that I notice really looks up to his dad like a best friend. You can see this by how he reacts to the stupid things his dad says in interviews. Lonzo is probably a good dude, but if his father determines that your team isn't doing what he wants to do, all it will take is a bit of influence and you have a train wreck on your hands.

Remember Dwight? There wasn't much reason for him to destroy our franchise when he did. He had people in his circle that convinced him he could be the face of the NBA but for Orlando. That's what happens.

And yet if you did the '04 NBA Draft over again, I would draft Dwight every single time and you would too. If you think his talent level is that high, you draft him.

Exactly. Do you pass on Dwight for Okafor because he likes LA and Atlanta? We lost Dwight but we had fun while he was here and we reached heights Okafor never would have taken us to.

Again, I don't know if Ball offers the same talent but if you think he does you take him and don't think twice.

Selecting Isaac would be a Dwight like move because he much more raw than other prospects. You can tell his ceiling is super high, but the team that takes him will have to be patient.

[VFX]

Yeah. The possibility of losing another top 3 pick to LA after his first contract alone is worth not drafting him. I think he will be good, but I want players that want to buy in and not be ready to jump ship if they aren't drafted by the team of their choice.

They become restricted free agents (if we chose to make the qualifying offer) at the end of their rookie deal.

We have the option to own a drafted player for about 7 years. If we can't get the guy to buy in within that window then let them move on.

Of course. I'm just saying that I think it's understated when a player REALLY wants to play for a specific team (even beforehand). Just like Paul George - who realistically could turn down money and play for LA because it's his decision. It's even harder for a franchise like Orlando and Indiana because those elite players, 7 years in, are in their prime and capable of bringing in more talent. It's an issue worth discussing and in my opinion isn't worth the trouble years down the line. Especially if his dad really does have a lot of say in the matter.

[ralphie9898]

So you are saying imagine we finish ahead of LA, and get # 3. I'm pretty sure Boston takes Fultz. PHX will take Ball or Jackson, lets say they take Jackson since they have Bledsoe & Knight at PG and Booker at SG. So we are sitting here at 3, with Fultz & Jackson off the board, I'm taking Tatum at 3. Whoever is at 4, LA or NYK, winds up with Ball.

No way am I passing up Ball for Tatum. Also I don't think Phoenix passes up Ball because they have Bledsoe and Knight.

Good for you. No way do I want Ball, or his dad.

Yeah his dad is getting ridiculous but even with that I am fine with Ball and think he could be far better then Tatum. I like Tatum but as I said with all things considered I still take Ball or Fultz ahead of Tatum.

[ralphie9898]

Good for you. No way do I want Ball, or his dad.

Ball has a lot of talent, but there are question marks about how his shot and style of play will translate to the modern NBA. If those are your concerns then that it understandable.

But if you are passing on a believed to be better talent because their dad talks a lot ... wow.

Yes those factor in, I also factor in that I haven't give up on EP yet and we need a SF more than a guard. And thirdly, yeah I don't want his dad anywhere near this organization. So sue me.

Position doesn't factor that much as we simply need the best player we can possibly get as there isn't a spot on this team that can't be upgraded. Yeah SF is bare and we do have guys at PG. But there are other ways to address SF but in the end I am not going on position. We need stars who can be more effective in multiple facets. We need offense as well as defense. Also I think Ball or Fultz are guys who help attract talent more so then Tatum would. Sorry but I am not limiting myself with just a single position in mind.

[ralphie9898]

Ball to me doesn't project as a good enough player to counteract the headache that we'd have if we drafted him. All it takes is a little bit more body language or his dad on First Take making a joke about LA after his deal is up.

Then everyone would come back bitching about how management could fall for it again blah blah. I'd rather have someone who fits a better role and wants to be in Orlando.

We have enough Role Players. We need stars if we want to start getting into the playoffs. AS for Ball's dad yes he is distraction but for who? He hasn't stopped Ball from being one of the top two prospects and a possible number one pick. I just don't think Ball's dad will be a hindrance to how good he could be and will be more about a subject for talk radio and TV.

[ralphie9898]

Yeah. The possibility of losing another top 3 pick to LA after his first contract alone is worth not drafting him. I think he will be good, but I want players that want to buy in and not be ready to jump ship if they aren't drafted by the team of their choice.

It is no sure thing that he bolts to LA. In four years LA may not need a PG and they may not even have the cap space to go after Ball. And most top prospects end up with a second contract after their rookie deal is done. Of course losing a player is always a possibility and that remains with no matter who you pick. Everyone in the world thought Russell was destined for LA yet still he signed an extension with OKC. I still don't see that as a reason to pass up on Ball.

[ralphie9898]

Ball has a lot of talent, but there are question marks about how his shot and style of play will translate to the modern NBA. If those are your concerns then that it understandable.

But if you are passing on a believed to be better talent because their dad talks a lot ... wow.

The reason it matters is because you don't want to place the hopes and future of your franchise on a guy that is going to do everything in their power to place you in a position to trade them where they want to go.

From what I see of Lonzo, he seems like a quiet kid that I notice really looks up to his dad like a best friend. You can see this by how he reacts to the stupid things his dad says in interviews. Lonzo is probably a good dude, but if his father determines that your team isn't doing what he wants to do, all it will take is a bit of influence and you have a train wreck on your hands.

Remember Dwight? There wasn't much reason for him to destroy our franchise when he did. He had people in his circle that convinced him he could be the face of the NBA but for Orlando. That's what happens.

And yet if you did the '04 NBA Draft over again, I would draft Dwight every single time and you would too. If you think his talent level is that high, you draft him.

yep

[SOUL]

Covington out for the year for the Sixers.

Tank in trouble.

[Viper1500]

Covington out for the year for the Sixers.

Tank in trouble.

Yeah? We can beat that! Gordon has a sore shoulder but we're playing him anyway!


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[Melvinlocker]

I get all of the Lonzo concern, but I'm not sure why everyone is hyper focused on the kid. I think he will turn out to be a solid pro, but nothing spectacular. There is so much talent at the top of this draft that is arguably better than him.

I'd much rather take my chances with one of Fultz, Smith Jr. or Josh Jackson if they are on the board. If they are off the board, we can begin to look at the next tier consisting of Ball, Tatum and Isaac.

[MagicFan101]

I get all of the Lonzo concern, but I'm not sure why everyone is hyper focused on the kid. I think he will turn out to be a solid pro, but nothing spectacular. There is so much talent at the top of this draft that is arguably better than him.

I'd much rather take my chances with one of Fultz, Smith Jr. or Josh Jackson if they are on the board. If they are off the board, we can begin to look at the next tier consisting of Ball, Tatum and Isaac.

Smith Jr. is a tier below Ball, Tatum and Isaac...

[j-ragg]

The reason it matters is because you don't want to place the hopes and future of your franchise on a guy that is going to do everything in their power to place you in a position to trade them where they want to go.

From what I see of Lonzo, he seems like a quiet kid that I notice really looks up to his dad like a best friend. You can see this by how he reacts to the stupid things his dad says in interviews. Lonzo is probably a good dude, but if his father determines that your team isn't doing what he wants to do, all it will take is a bit of influence and you have a train wreck on your hands.

Remember Dwight? There wasn't much reason for him to destroy our franchise when he did. He had people in his circle that convinced him he could be the face of the NBA but for Orlando. That's what happens.

And yet if you did the '04 NBA Draft over again, I would draft Dwight every single time and you would too. If you think his talent level is that high, you draft him.

yep

That's where we don't see eye to eye. I don't think his talent level is that much higher than the next guy or two down the board. A lot of people disagree, Im just not on the wagon yet.

[OrlandoDream]

The league has to do something about these blatantly tanking teams. If they win the lottery, it just reinforces the strategy and makes other teams follow. We know there is some backdoor dealing when it comes to the lottery. We just need Dan Gilbert's son for a couple of minutes.

[Skin]

See how badly Sixers are tanking... Sitting Covington and Okafor now.

Can we fire Hennigan now so we don't have to put on the show that we are prioritizing winning?

[j-ragg]

See how badly Sixers are tanking... Sitting Covington and Okafor now.

Can we fire Hennigan now so we don't have to put on the show that we are prioritizing winning?

Doesn't Vogel decide who plays? Is it just blame Hennigan for any and everything?

[Skin]

See how badly Sixers are tanking... Sitting Covington and Okafor now.

Can we fire Hennigan now so we don't have to put on the show that we are prioritizing winning?

Doesn't Vogel decide who plays? Is it just blame Hennigan for any and everything?

Yes. Coach has a boss that he has to answer to.

No, not all the blame goes to Hennigan. Blame gets shared between him and Martins.