2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2

[kingmalaki]

Westbrook averaging a triple double and quite possibly about to break Oscar Robertson's record for most triple doubles in a season overshadows Harden's season honestly. We are witnessing history.

Yes, this is correct.

Harden seems to be fading down the stretch right now (wrist, illness) and that only magnifies what Westbrook is doing.

There is no way to minimize what Westbrook is on course to do. If he accomplishes the feats -- 30 PPG, new triple double record, 30+ PER, triple double season average with a pace of 100 or less -- then those marks, taken together, are unlikely to ever be broken as the NBA moves into the future. As I said in another thread, this has never been done and I would bet anyone anything that it will never happen again if it happens now.

This would be historic. If it happens. We have to see if it happens.

Vegas seems to be shifting along with the general zeitgeist. Westbrook appears to be, at worst, even with Harden now and given that "Westbrook -175, Harden +140" line it could be the case that Westbrook is now ahead in the race. At least in terms of public perception.

It's kind of a shame that Harden is wearing down now, but it goes to show how difficult Westbrook's feats truly are. It takes an incredibly unique physical ability, stamina, will and motor to be able to function so well at such a high usage rate. And to do so without breaking down over the course of a season.

I remember that Durant was on course for a 30 PER season in 2014, and then he faded badly down the stretch of the regular season and remained exhausted during that playoff run.

Very few people in NBA history could have any chance to do what Westbrook is doing now. Even if you put them in Westbrook's position, and raised their usage rate up.

Most of them simply aren't good enough, and/or would not hold up to the wear and tear of the situation.

I'm rooting for Westbrook to break the triple double record and average a triple double. It's hard to speculate on who will win the MVP award because the media awards it and the media can be fickle and arbitrary. They make their own rules for the award.

Westbrook deserves this season, whether or not he wins the award. The amount of grief that the guy has gotten over his career has been unbelievable. Finishing off such an impressive season "the right way" would be a nice feather in his cap, award or not.

I hope he does it.

Harden isn't wearing down. He injured his wrist, which has affected his shooting. His last 5 games:

38/7/17
22/5/12
24/11/13
30/8/4
17/12/8

He did shoot like hot garage for the past 3 games, due to his wrist. That's like saying someone is wearing down because someone fell into their knee.

[HotRocks34]

Harden isn't wearing down. He injured his wrist, which has affected his shooting. His last 5 games:

38/7/17
22/5/12
24/11/13
30/8/4
17/12/8

He did shoot like hot garage for the past 3 games, due to his wrist. That's like saying someone is wearing down because someone fell into their knee.

Wearing down = physical attrition. As in, the body starts to break down and you cannot perform at the level you previously did. In this instance, Harden hurt his wrist (and apparently is ill right now) and that affected his performance. Here are some thoughts on the situation from a Houston writer:

http://www.chron.com/sports/texas-sports-nation/article/James-Harden-s-refusal-to-sit-could-affect-MVP-11043560.php

A week ago, James Harden was the smart pick for the NBA’s MVP in the year of the triple-double.

Three games out of 82 shouldn’t change anything. But Harden has been that off target and it’s not a coincidence the Rockets have dropped three consecutive games for the first time all season.

...

Harden walked off the hardwood with his wrist heavily bandaged, though, and he hasn’t been the same since.

Hence, "wearing down." Body is not holding up and he can't play at his normal level of efficiency.

Also, I think it was Harden who said recently that playing in every game should matter in the MVP race. That was before Harden missed the game last night.

Westbrook has missed no games, despite having a higher usage rate than Harden has.

As I said above, there are very few people in NBA history who have the physical characteristics necessary to do what Westbrook is doing. The energy and stamina and conditioning have to be absolute top-shelf. Just to survive a season with that usage rate, let alone thrive in such a season.

[kingmalaki]

Wearing down = physical attrition. As in, the body starts to break down and you cannot perform at the level you previously did.

So if someone crashed into a 25 year old players knee his body started to break down? No, someone crashed into his knee. Harden's wrist didn't start to wear or break down. He landed on it and got injured. If I get into a car wreck tomorrow and break my back, my body didn't just break down.

As I said above, there are very few people in NBA history who have the physical characteristics necessary to do what Westbrook is doing. The energy and stamina and conditioning have to be absolute top-shelf. Just to survive a season with that usage rate, let alone thrive in such a season.

I agree that very few players can do what Westbrook is doing. Having the energy and stamina to do it is kinda helped by completely ignoring defense and rarely contesting shots though.

[primecougar]

The most impressive part about westbrooks season is his stamina.

That's a ridiculous work load and I thought for sure he was going to hit a wall and struggle towards the end of the season.

His stamina and durability is off the charts.

[Yank3525]

I don't understand what's funnier, someone pretending like the numbers outside of PER never supported Curry being better than Durant (which they did), or that Durant is still somehow close to LeBron's level (which he's not)?

Curry was better than Durant ever was not just in 2016, but in 2015 too, and he's better than Durant now.

2015 Curry was not as good as 2014 Durant.

[therealbig3]

I don't understand what's funnier, someone pretending like the numbers outside of PER never supported Curry being better than Durant (which they did), or that Durant is still somehow close to LeBron's level (which he's not)?

Curry was better than Durant ever was not just in 2016, but in 2015 too, and he's better than Durant now.

2015 Curry was not as good as 2014 Durant.

I don't think you can really state that as if it's an obvious fact, I think Curry has a really strong argument to be better than Durant in those respective years.

The way I see it, I don't think Durant has EVER been on Curry's level as an offensive force for the last 2 years before this one. Yes, even 2015 Curry. And Durant wasn't playing consistent defense at the time either, so whatever advantage he had doesn't really bridge the gap too much.

I think 2017 Durant is much easier to argue, because of how well he's played defense, but even then, I still think the difference on offense is bigger. Obviously, this goes beyond the box score, because Durant always has really impressive looking scoring numbers, but I don't think he scares defenses the way Curry does, and so I don't think he really elevated the play of those around him the way Curry does, so his overall offensive impact is lower.

[Yank3525]

I don't understand what's funnier, someone pretending like the numbers outside of PER never supported Curry being better than Durant (which they did), or that Durant is still somehow close to LeBron's level (which he's not)?

Curry was better than Durant ever was not just in 2016, but in 2015 too, and he's better than Durant now.

2015 Curry was not as good as 2014 Durant.

I don't think you can really state that as if it's an obvious fact, I think Curry has a really strong argument to be better than Durant in those respective years.

The way I see it, I don't think Durant has EVER been on Curry's level as an offensive force for the last 2 years before this one. Yes, even 2015 Curry. And Durant wasn't playing consistent defense at the time either, so whatever advantage he had doesn't really bridge the gap too much.

I think 2017 Durant is much easier to argue, because of how well he's played defense, but even then, I still think the difference on offense is bigger. Obviously, this goes beyond the box score, because Durant always has really impressive looking scoring numbers, but I don't think he scares defenses the way Curry does, and so I don't think he really elevated the play of those around him the way Curry does, so his overall offensive impact is lower.

2014 Durant was putting up nearly 10 more points on similar efficiency as 2015 Steph (both were around 63% TS). I really don't see how you can make the case offensively that 2015 Curry was better then 2014 Durant. Eye test, stats etc, IMO say he wasn't.

[ProfessorJM]

Wearing down = physical attrition. As in, the body starts to break down and you cannot perform at the level you previously did.

So if someone crashed into a 25 year old players knee his body started to break down? No, someone crashed into his knee. Harden's wrist didn't start to wear or break down. He landed on it and got injured. If I get into a car wreck tomorrow and break my back, my body didn't just break down.

[quote="HotRocks34"]

I agree somewhat, but it's also possible that fatigue and the body generally being worn down could impact a split second decision just a tad too late, or a slightly slower reaction that makes the difference in an injury or not and/or also the severity of a hit/injury. For a car wreck, being tired or not at your best might have made the smallest but ultimately split second meaningful difference that caused a head on crash versus a sideswipe with lesser injury versus no crash at all, etc. Each injury has a great deal of luck, but also how the body and mind is performing at that moment also can come into play in very slight but meaningful ways that impact severity, reactions, and the ultimate result.

[HotRocks34]

Westbrook has tied Oscar for 41 triple doubles in a season.

Incredible.

[ProfessorJM]

I think a few things on this whole thing:

I think Westbrook has some momentum now, so it's possible he snatches it at the last moment if gets the triple double average. Don't undersell the fact that the media is voting -- many will love this narrative I think.

I'd still vote Harden personally, although my one wavering issue with him is that I think Houston has arguably been just as good with him not on the court over the last 4-5 months where guys like LeBron and Westbrook get chasm drop offs from their team when they are out. A lot of my definition of most valuable is partly tied to this kind of stat -- if the team generally maintains or enhances their team's point margin when that player is out, that's something to consider too.

In the end though, when you look back at 2017 10-20+ years from now, a lot of the 2017 season narrative for NBA history I think will be Durant and Westbrook (if GS wins which they should even more so) given Durant's unique situation and Westbrook's historical season after Durant left. The MVP winner for that year will mostly not be that relevant in comparison, fair or not.

[Doctor MJ]

I think a few things on this whole thing:

I think Westbrook has some momentum now, so it's possible he snatches it at the last moment if gets the triple double average. Don't undersell the fact that the media is voting -- many will love this narrative I think.

I'd still vote Harden personally, although my one wavering issue with him is that I think Houston has arguably been just as good with him not on the court over the last 4-5 months where guys like LeBron and Westbrook get chasm drop offs from their team when they are out. A lot of my definition of most valuable is partly tied to this kind of stat -- if the team generally maintains or enhances their team's point margin when that player is out, that's something to consider too.

In the end though, when you look back at 2017 10-20+ years from now, a lot of the 2017 season narrative for NBA history I think will be Durant and Westbrook (if GS wins which they should even more so) given Durant's unique situation and Westbrook's historical season after Durant left. The MVP winner for that year will mostly not be that relevant in comparison, fair or not.

Great post.


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[benef]

My personal opinion is that each has flaws:
4. LeBron James: Hasn't played defence all year and already has a lot of silverware in the cabinet
3. Russell Westbrook: Is a really bad defender and isn't able to lift the Thunder enough to cause serious problems in the playoffs
2. Kawhi Leonard: He's a member of the Spurs, meaning that no one who is a really casual fan knows enough about him.
1. James Harden: Bad defence, plus couldn't get the locker room last year.
However, each player has a real good reason to pick them,
4. LeBron James: Best player in the world, and anyone who disputes this needs to go back to the bottom of the pond in California they come from.
3. Russell Westbrook: Incredible numbers, best storyline of anyone ever and a triple-double.
2. Kawhi Leonard: Best two way player since Scottie Pippen, and arguably better that him.
1. James Harden: The Rockets have catapaulted from 8th to 3rd in the West entirely due to him being absolutely amazing, makes incredible things look easy.

Westbrook shouldn't get the MVP. I think he'll win one next year or the year after if he misses out on this one, like Oscar Robertson did after averaging a triple-double. A triple double is amazing, but doesn't automatically make you the MVP. Harden is more valuable, Leonard is more valuable. Anyone who doubts Harden needs to read this great article by Ben Golliver of Sports Illustrated. https://www.si.com/nba/2017/03/27/james-harden-nba-mvp-case-rockets-russell-westbrook

Incorrect. Hes one of the only ones that has. Hes not a top 4 mvp but hes certainly played defense.

To be clear, I wasn't saying LeBron is a bad defender. I'm just saying that based on this year, his defence hasn't been nearly up to his usual standards, and in this MVP race, that matters. His defensive win shares this year are 2.8, the second worst of his career and just 0.2 off his 2003-04 2.6. Defence isn't the most important metric in the MVP conversation, but it can be one in this tight a race. Added to that, his defensive rating is 109, so far away from his career best of 96 in 2011-12. In comparison, Leonard's is 102, Harden's is 107 and Westbrook's is 104.

[RightToCensor]

The modern NBA is so beautiful to watch for me. So many great players doing so many great things, and we still have some generational talent capable of taking away our breath away waiting to hit the floor next season in Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. The next five years are going to be interesting. So many records will get broken by this generation of NBA players.

[HotRocks34]

Here's what Westbrook needs in his final 5 games to achieve history:

* 1 more triple double game in his final 5 games to set a new record of 42 such games in the same season
* Raw numbers needed in the final 5 games to average a 30-point triple double ----> 25 points, 0 rebounds, 16 assists
* Average over the last 5 games needed to average a 30-point triple double --------> 5/0/4
* Try to maintain a 30+ PER as an additional element of the triple-double season

[BlueLion]

Here's what Westbrook needs in his final 5 games to achieve history:

* 1 more triple double game in his final 5 games to set a new record of 42 such games in the same season
* Raw numbers needed in the final 5 games to average a 30-point triple double ----> 25 points, 0 rebounds, 16 assists
* Average over the last 5 games needed to average a 30-point triple double --------> 5/0/4
* Try to maintain a 30+ PER as an additional element of the triple-double season

He can tie or break Wilt record of consecutive triple-doubles with two or three more of them.

[Ballerhogger]

4/5 5pm PT at the grindhouse with a lot players out for memphis. Super uneventful. That does not help Goatbrook at all.

[LeBird]

Every team in the NBA would trade their top player for Lebron. People have to get twisted in mental gymnastics and side stories to give it to others.

If he doesn't get it, which is likely, Harden should get it. A triple double is just an arbitrary measure, one designed to be used as a marketing push this season.

[Mick75]

Every team in the NBA would trade their top player for Lebron. People have to get twisted in mental gymnastics and side stories to give it to others.

If he doesn't get it, which is likely, Harden should get it. A triple double is just an arbitrary measure, one designed to be used as a marketing push this season.

Well that's just like your opinion, man. Westbrook is clearly OKCs most valuable player. Without him they are just a trash team! Which puts him into the discussion about who's the leagues MVP. The Tripdoubs are a nice (and btw historic) achievement. His impact is undebatable even without him playing defense which btw he is capable to do.

I also consider Harden, LeBron and Kawhi as potential MVPs.

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[LeBird]

Every team in the NBA would trade their top player for Lebron. People have to get twisted in mental gymnastics and side stories to give it to others.

If he doesn't get it, which is likely, Harden should get it. A triple double is just an arbitrary measure, one designed to be used as a marketing push this season.

Well that's just like your opinion, man. Westbrook is clearly OKCs most valuable player. Without him they are just a trash team! Which puts him into the discussion about who's the leagues MVP. The Tripdoubs are a nice (and btw historic) achievement. His impact is undebatable even without him playing defense which btw he is capable to do.

I also consider Harden, LeBron and Kawhi as potential MVPs.

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He is a top 10 MVP in the league but he is getting the nod purely because of the triple double. OKC have implemented a strategy that inordinately benefits Westbrook's production - it is blatant really - which may actually hinder them as a team. OKC was not going to go lottery just because Durant left but they have almost guaranteed themselves losing in the first round because "give the ball to Russell" isn't going to work.

If he had the same exact season next season few would be clamouring for him to get back to back MVPs because the novelty wouldn't be there anymore. It is for that reason it is highly dependent on the narrative of him getting a triple double average - which again is an arbitrary measure and doesn't really correlate with success.

[michaelm]

Russell is keeping on strong, and Harden seems to be dropping off very likely related to an injury, and I am now fine with Westbrook getting the award ahead of Harden between the two of them, very definitely the only two realistic candidates.

I still think LeBron, Curry, Kawhi and a healthy KD are better players and more valuable in all reality to almost any team, but that does not,'and never has had, much to do with the actual MVP award.