2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread Volume 2

Post #1841 » by **CoreyGallagher** » Tue Apr 4, 2017 8:28 pm

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phiphan · Post #1842 » by **phiphan** » Tue Apr 4, 2017 8:30 pm

All that's left is for Fultz to say "Philly or nowhere"

Post #1843 » by **CoreyGallagher** » Tue Apr 4, 2017 8:33 pm

phiphan wrote:All that's left is for Fultz to say "Philly or nowhere"

Anytime Simmons does a live video on Instagram Fultz comments on it. He seems to really like him.

cksdayoff · Post #1844 » by **cksdayoff** » Tue Apr 4, 2017 9:02 pm

embiid, simmons, fultz on all 3 levels

Negrodamus · Post #1845 » by **Negrodamus** » Tue Apr 4, 2017 9:12 pm

Kolkmania wrote:
Negrodamus wrote:When you lump prospects together based on past experiences, you miss out on great players.

DeMar DeRozan was a 64% free throw shooter his freshman year at USC. He's currently an 84% FT shooter. At this stage of prospect's careers, the numbers shouldn't be the main guiding factor. Form is much more important. Many of those guys have busted forms. Dozier does not.

And DeRozan is still an 28% career shooter from three, so I don't get your point. DeRozan had 9.5 FGA at USC as a freshman, converting 56.2(!)%. So despite his poor shooting he managed to score efficiently, just like he does in the NBA. He also lived at the line with a great .402 FTr.
DeMar also made great improvements at the line during his freshman and rookie year, improving his FT% to 76%. While Dozier is stuck on basically the same percentage in his sophomore year.

Dozier can't get to the rim, can't shoot efficiently and is not an excellent playmaker, I don't think it's reasonable to expect him overcoming most of these problems. Could he be an outlier? Perhaps, that's why he's probably worth a shot in the late first or second round.

My point is that shooting improves in the NBA. If you want to go back to the Brandon Roy comparison, he was shooting 48% FT as a freshman, then 78% as a sophomore, but dropped back to 74% as a junior. All three of those years, he was sub 35% as a three point shooter.

In his NBA career, 80% career FT and 35% 3FG. Once again, sure, there are concerns with shot, but I'm more concerned with getting to the rim. He made great strides over the two tourneys, but the concern is still there. Either way, his basketball skill is definitely there.

Unbreakable99 · Post #1846 » by **Unbreakable99** » Wed Apr 5, 2017 1:19 am

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Kolkmania · Post #1847 » by **Kolkmania** » Wed Apr 5, 2017 6:57 am

Negrodamus wrote:
Kolkmania wrote:
Negrodamus wrote:When you lump prospects together based on past experiences, you miss out on great players.

DeMar DeRozan was a 64% free throw shooter his freshman year at USC. He's currently an 84% FT shooter. At this stage of prospect's careers, the numbers shouldn't be the main guiding factor. Form is much more important. Many of those guys have busted forms. Dozier does not.

And DeRozan is still an 28% career shooter from three, so I don't get your point. DeRozan had 9.5 FGA at USC as a freshman, converting 56.2(!)%. So despite his poor shooting he managed to score efficiently, just like he does in the NBA. He also lived at the line with a great .402 FTr.
DeMar also made great improvements at the line during his freshman and rookie year, improving his FT% to 76%. While Dozier is stuck on basically the same percentage in his sophomore year.

Dozier can't get to the rim, can't shoot efficiently and is not an excellent playmaker, I don't think it's reasonable to expect him overcoming most of these problems. Could he be an outlier? Perhaps, that's why he's probably worth a shot in the late first or second round.

My point is that shooting improves in the NBA. If you want to go back to the Brandon Roy comparison, he was shooting 48% FT as a freshman, then 78% as a sophomore, but dropped back to 74% as a junior. All three of those years, he was sub 35% as a three point shooter.

In his NBA career, 80% career FT and 35% 3FG. Once again, sure, there are concerns with shot, but I'm more concerned with getting to the rim. He made great strides over the two tourneys, but the concern is still there. Either way, his basketball skill is definitely there.

I do get your point, these guys are still kids and probably will improve. Although Dozier's sample size is much more worrisome than Brandon Roy and that makes him less likely to become a decent shooter. Roy had just 37 FTA and 10 3PA, so that 48 FT% isn't really indicative, combine his freshman and sophomore attempts and he shot 72.1% (172 attempts), compared to Dozier's 57.9% (197 attempts).

Dozier could improve, but I won't bet on it. Certainly not risking a lottery pick.

LloydFree · Post #1848 » by **LloydFree** » Wed Apr 5, 2017 7:24 am

CoreyGallagher wrote:

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I'm thinking Fultz goes to Philly or the Magic. If the Magic get #1 they'll take him. The Lakers will take Ball. The Sun's SHOULD take Jackson if they get #1. I'm hoping Boston takes him, so they don't get Jackson or Ball, but I'm not sure they pick Fultz #1.

Kobblehead · Post #1849 » by **Kobblehead** » Wed Apr 5, 2017 2:47 pm

Are more draft prospects going to start attending games of teams they want to play for? I think Fultz is to first to do this. I can definitely see it becoming a trend.

PLO · Post #1850 » by **PLO** » Wed Apr 5, 2017 3:07 pm

LloydFree wrote:
CoreyGallagher wrote:

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I'm thinking Fultz goes to Philly or the Magic. If the Magic get #1 they'll take him. The Lakers will take Ball. The Sun's SHOULD take Jackson if they get #1. I'm hoping Boston takes him, so they don't get Jackson or Ball, but I'm not sure they pick Fultz #1.

I think it really depends on what happens in this playoff series. If IT is abused as much on defense as is likely I really can't Ainge paying max $ to a 5'8" PG (yes, he's been awesome this season) - they have a number of players they have to pay in coming seasons and it would be smart to have a key piece on a rookie contract. Fultz is (to my mind) a better prospect coming into the league than Curry, Harden, Westbrook (which is not to say he will end up better than them) - no GM in their right minds is going to pass him up in a PG dominated league if they can help it and they'll juggle their rosters to accommodate him. If the Lakers are stupid (which they are) they will take Ball if they have the number one pick, hopefully no outbreak of sanity with them if we are sitting right behind them in the queue.

I'm really hoping for a deep Boston run this playoffs with IT crushing it - it means a lesser chance of them picking Fultz if the odds hold true and they get the number one pick.

Unbreakable99 · Post #1851 » by **Unbreakable99** » Wed Apr 5, 2017 3:47 pm

Kobblehead wrote:Are more draft prospects going to start attending games of teams they want to play for? I think Fultz is to first to do this. I can definitely see it becoming a trend.

More and more players may do it but it won't matter. If the Sixers are picking 5th and says he only wants to play for the Sixers then no team is going to just throw their hands up and say oh well. We won't draft him. He will still go in the top 4 and probably in the top 2. Even if the Sixers had the number 2 pick and the Celtics or Lakers or Suns or Magic or any other team has the top pick and Fultz says he does not want to play for them and wants to play for the Sixers, it won't matter. If a team rates him the best prospect and has the top pick they won't care what he wants. They will draft him. Just like with Ball. Many people think he only wants to play for the Lakers. If a team likes Ball then they will draft him regardless if he wants to play for the Lakers.

JojoSlimbiid · Post #1852 » by **JojoSlimbiid** » Wed Apr 5, 2017 4:15 pm

I don't think I ever recall seeing a prospect do that. Not only do it but come out of the 76er tunnel and speak to the 76er reporters. Weird as hell in my opinion. If Lonzo did that in LA it wouldn't be a big deal because he lives there but Fultz doesn't even live here. Well at least we know he isn't going to pull a Porzingis on us.

I really think we need to go all in on him. I would trade our protected first next year to guarantee we get him because with him I can be damn sure we aren't going to be high lotto next draft. Plus we still got the Lakers playing for us next year so its all good.

GabeCerebro · Post #1853 » by **GabeCerebro** » Wed Apr 5, 2017 4:38 pm

Based off of how serious those "Colangelo is trying to trade for Kris Dunn" rumors were on draft night... How is there any doubt in our minds that he won't try his hardest to trade up for Fultz, in the event that we don't win the lottery? I'm actually expecting us to walk out of this draft with him, and would be surprised otherwise.

Sasashi · Post #1854 » by **Sasashi** » Wed Apr 5, 2017 4:39 pm

If fultz doesn't visit other high lottery teams' games, and only came to philly....it would be pretty clear what his message was in wanting to come here.

Philly pick 2017 (#5) and 2018 plus okafor to boston for #1 2017....

Would boston bite?

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GabeCerebro · Post #1855 » by **GabeCerebro** » Wed Apr 5, 2017 4:39 pm

JojoSlimbiid wrote:I don't think I ever recall seeing a prospect do that. Not only do it but come out of the 76er tunnel and speak to the 76er reporters. Weird as hell in my opinion. If Lonzo did that in LA it wouldn't be a big deal because he lives there but Fultz doesn't even live here. Well at least we know he isn't going to pull a Porzingis on us.

I really think we need to go all in on him. I would trade our protected first next year to guarantee we get him because with him I can be damn sure we aren't going to be high lotto next draft. Plus we still got the Lakers playing for us next year so its all good.

Yup, I agree. I think Colangelo will absolutely cash in those excess picks (LA and Sacramento) one way or another this summer. I hope it's for Fultz.

GabeCerebro · Post #1856 » by **GabeCerebro** » Wed Apr 5, 2017 4:42 pm

Sasashi wrote:If fultz doesn't visit other high lottery teams' games, and only came to philly....it would be pretty clear what his message was in wanting to come here.

Philly pick 2017 (#5) and 2018 plus okafor to boston for #1 2017....

Would boston bite?

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I think it would take the Lakers pick in addition to ours this year. In a perfect world, I would try to do the LA and SAC picks for #1, and keep ours this year and get Issac as well.

LloydFree · Post #1857 » by **LloydFree** » Wed Apr 5, 2017 4:43 pm

PLO wrote:
LloydFree wrote:
CoreyGallagher wrote:

Read on Twitter

I'm thinking Fultz goes to Philly or the Magic. If the Magic get #1 they'll take him. The Lakers will take Ball. The Sun's SHOULD take Jackson if they get #1. I'm hoping Boston takes him, so they don't get Jackson or Ball, but I'm not sure they pick Fultz #1.

I think it really depends on what happens in this playoff series. If IT is abused as much on defense as is likely I really can't Ainge paying max $ to a 5'8" PG (yes, he's been awesome this season) - they have a number of players they have to pay in coming seasons and it would be smart to have a key piece on a rookie contract. Fultz is (to my mind) a better prospect coming into the league than Curry, Harden, Westbrook (which is not to say he will end up better than them) - no GM in their right minds is going to pass him up in a PG dominated league if they can help it and they'll juggle their rosters to accommodate him. If the Lakers are stupid (which they are) they will take Ball if they have the number one pick, hopefully no outbreak of sanity with them if we are sitting right behind them in the queue.

I'm really hoping for a deep Boston run this playoffs with IT crushing it - it means a lesser chance of them picking Fultz if the odds hold true and they get the number one pick.

I hope Boston selects Fultz if they get the top pick. Jackson and Ball will be more impactful pros, and it wouldn't surprise me if Dennis Smith and Tatum are better too.

LloydFree · Post #1858 » by **LloydFree** » Wed Apr 5, 2017 4:55 pm

Unbreakable99 wrote:
Kobblehead wrote:Are more draft prospects going to start attending games of teams they want to play for? I think Fultz is to first to do this. I can definitely see it becoming a trend.

More and more players may do it but it won't matter. If the Sixers are picking 5th and says he only wants to play for the Sixers then no team is going to just throw their hands up and say oh well. We won't draft him. He will still go in the top 4 and probably in the top 2. Even if the Sixers had the number 2 pick and the Celtics or Lakers or Suns or Magic or any other team has the top pick and Fultz says he does not want to play for them and wants to play for the Sixers, it won't matter. If a team rates him the best prospect and has the top pick they won't care what he wants. They will draft him. Just like with Ball. Many people think he only wants to play for the Lakers. If a team likes Ball then they will draft him regardless if he wants to play for the Lakers.

It's strategy. It isn't cut and dry that he will go #1, and some of the teams with the best chance won't want/need a combo guard. He's knows the Lakers won't take him. The Celtics don't need him because he's not better than the guards they already have. Phoenix already has scoring guards as good as him. So that leaves Philly and Orlando as his most likely landing spots. If he believes those are the teams most likely to select him, it would be in the best interests of his career to try to force his way to Philly to play in a bigger market on a team be could fit him in seamlessly.

Unbreakable99 · Post #1859 » by **Unbreakable99** » Wed Apr 5, 2017 5:10 pm

One of the many great things about Simmons is he gives us so much flexibility. Multiple players could be better fits for us versus other teams. I think Monk has the best chance to reach his ceiling with us. Same with Fultz. Same with Ball. Whether or not you think Monk will be good, we appear to be the best fit for him.

HankTheTank · Post #1860 » by **HankTheTank** » Wed Apr 5, 2017 5:14 pm

Sasashi wrote:If fultz doesn't visit other high lottery teams' games, and only came to philly....it would be pretty clear what his message was in wanting to come here.

Philly pick 2017 (#5) and 2018 plus okafor to boston for #1 2017....

Would boston bite?

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I was going to ignore this but I'm responding in the hope that we don't see a thousand "what if we package Okafor and the #5 pick to move up" posts between now and draft night. Okafor is worth next to nothing. If he were worth more than nothing he would've been traded at the deadline.