Tankapolooza: Draft Lottery Odds/Watch thread

[Dgbarnes]

The 14 teams that miss the playoffs should all get equal odds. Teams can't win the lottery in back to back years, no exceptions. So let's say we were to win it this year and miss the playoffs next year, when they draw, if we win the lottery, they just re-draw.

That's the only way to completely eliminate tanking.

No GM/owner will want their team to purposely lose to have a 7.14% chance at winning the lottery.

I like this a lot. Then just keep the 2nd round based on order of standings. No one is tanking to improve their 2nd round pick. One thing I would add to it though is draw for all 14 draft spots, not just top 3. That further decreases the incentive to tank. That would eliminate the "well the worst we can draft is 4th." Each team that misses the playoffs has an equal chance to be anywhere 1-14.

Then you'd have border line playoff teams looking to miss the playoffs. Would you rather get crushed in the first round or have high odds to win the number one pick? As far as not letting a team win back to back years, I think that's unfair. All drafts aren't equal. Imagine if that was in place in 2013 and we won the lottery. We draft Oladipo but have no shot at Wiggens. Is that fair? Obviously not. Plus teams would still tank for a chance for a top pick even if it's not number 1.

The system is fine the way it is. I don't mind messing with the odds a little bit or even having a lottery for the top 5 instead of the top 3. But the basic principles of the lottery need to stay in place as is.

My thoughts exactly. There is a necessary evil no matter the solution. You best believe that Miami, Denver, Portland, Indiana, etc. would be losing on purpose if it meant they have a chance to land Fultz or Ball.

[Skin]

The Nets is on a 3-game winning streak. I love the NBA...

I hope the Nets go on a 4-game winning streak!

[mr2good]

Bracing myself for the bounce back win tonight at home against BKLYN...

[NEM]

Updated

A magic loss and/or a Knicks win ensures he magic won't end up with anything worse than 5th worst record.

A magic loss/sixers win, cuts our magic number to clinching 4th worst to 1.

I have a bad feeling about tonight.

[drsd]

What a cool photo of a future-former Magic GM.



..

[MAGICian619]

I like this a lot. Then just keep the 2nd round based on order of standings. No one is tanking to improve their 2nd round pick. One thing I would add to it though is draw for all 14 draft spots, not just top 3. That further decreases the incentive to tank. That would eliminate the "well the worst we can draft is 4th." Each team that misses the playoffs has an equal chance to be anywhere 1-14.

Then you'd have border line playoff teams looking to miss the playoffs. Would you rather get crushed in the first round or have high odds to win the number one pick? As far as not letting a team win back to back years, I think that's unfair. All drafts aren't equal. Imagine if that was in place in 2013 and we won the lottery. We draft Oladipo but have no shot at Wiggens. Is that fair? Obviously not. Plus teams would still tank for a chance for a top pick even if it's not number 1.

The system is fine the way it is. I don't mind messing with the odds a little bit or even having a lottery for the top 5 instead of the top 3. But the basic principles of the lottery need to stay in place as is.

My thoughts exactly. There is a necessary evil no matter the solution. You best believe that Miami, Denver, Portland, Indiana, etc. would be losing on purpose if it meant they have a chance to land Fultz or Ball.

I really don't think so. Intentionally missing the playoffs by a game by tanking is a lot harder of a sell to a fan base/owner than tanking to get more ping pong balls. The whole point is to make the playoffs and be relevant. It's a totally different story when you are tanking to go from the 7th worst record to the 3rd worst record. Both have exact same outcome (no playoffs) but one comes with a (likely) better draft pick.

[IllMagic04]

Then you'd have border line playoff teams looking to miss the playoffs. Would you rather get crushed in the first round or have high odds to win the number one pick? As far as not letting a team win back to back years, I think that's unfair. All drafts aren't equal. Imagine if that was in place in 2013 and we won the lottery. We draft Oladipo but have no shot at Wiggens. Is that fair? Obviously not. Plus teams would still tank for a chance for a top pick even if it's not number 1.

The system is fine the way it is. I don't mind messing with the odds a little bit or even having a lottery for the top 5 instead of the top 3. But the basic principles of the lottery need to stay in place as is.

My thoughts exactly. There is a necessary evil no matter the solution. You best believe that Miami, Denver, Portland, Indiana, etc. would be losing on purpose if it meant they have a chance to land Fultz or Ball.

I really don't think so. Intentionally missing the playoffs by a game by tanking is a lot harder of a sell to a fan base/owner than tanking to get more ping pong balls. The whole point is to make the playoffs and be relevant. It's a totally different story when you are tanking to go from the 7th worst record to the 3rd worst record. Both have exact same outcome (no playoffs) but one comes with a (likely) better draft pick.

I disagree. If this system was in place and you were a Bulls or Heat fan what would you want them to do right now? Be honest. If you were a Atlanta Hawks fan are you telling me in this system you wouldn't want to trade everyone off that team and miss the playoffs at the break? Cause all you gotta do is miss the playoffs by a game and you got great odds at the number 1 pick.

[MAGICian619]

My thoughts exactly. There is a necessary evil no matter the solution. You best believe that Miami, Denver, Portland, Indiana, etc. would be losing on purpose if it meant they have a chance to land Fultz or Ball.

I really don't think so. Intentionally missing the playoffs by a game by tanking is a lot harder of a sell to a fan base/owner than tanking to get more ping pong balls. The whole point is to make the playoffs and be relevant. It's a totally different story when you are tanking to go from the 7th worst record to the 3rd worst record. Both have exact same outcome (no playoffs) but one comes with a (likely) better draft pick.

I disagree. If this system was in place and you were a Bulls or Heat fan what would you want them to do right now? Be honest. If you were a Atlanta Hawks fan are you telling me in this system you wouldn't want to trade everyone off that team and miss the playoffs at the break? Cause all you gotta do is miss the playoffs by a game and you got great odds at the number 1 pick.

7.14% is not great odds at the number 1 pick. You are just as likely to draft #14 as you are #1. That is the point.

[Ducklett]

Nearly all of the lottery options I have seen on here literally punish non-tanking bad teams, which is silly. I would say the easiest way to fix the lottery is to have the worst team not be able to win the lottery. Like they auto-pick fourth.

[MAGICian619]

Nearly all of the lottery options I have seen on here literally punish non-tanking bad teams, which is silly. I would say the easiest way to fix the lottery is to have the worst team not be able to win the lottery. Like they auto-pick fourth.

Orrrr just do what my fantasy league does: have a consolation "playoff" where non playoff teams battle it out for the #1 pick!

[IllMagic04]

I really don't think so. Intentionally missing the playoffs by a game by tanking is a lot harder of a sell to a fan base/owner than tanking to get more ping pong balls. The whole point is to make the playoffs and be relevant. It's a totally different story when you are tanking to go from the 7th worst record to the 3rd worst record. Both have exact same outcome (no playoffs) but one comes with a (likely) better draft pick.

I disagree. If this system was in place and you were a Bulls or Heat fan what would you want them to do right now? Be honest. If you were a Atlanta Hawks fan are you telling me in this system you wouldn't want to trade everyone off that team and miss the playoffs at the break? Cause all you gotta do is miss the playoffs by a game and you got great odds at the number 1 pick.

7.14% is not great odds at the number 1 pick. You are just as likely to draft #14 as you are #1. That is the point.

What are the odds for the 2nd and 3rd pick? Teams don't only tank for the number 1 pick. A chance for a top 3 pick is worth tanking for. Add in those percentages and suddenly the odds outweigh the playoffs.

[IllMagic04]

Nearly all of the lottery options I have seen on here literally punish non-tanking bad teams, which is silly. I would say the easiest way to fix the lottery is to have the worst team not be able to win the lottery. Like they auto-pick fourth.

Orrrr just do what my fantasy league does: have a consolation "playoff" where non playoff teams battle it out for the #1 pick!

Do you really believe players want to play for a chance for a team to draft their replacement?

[Bensational]

Or they could just revert to the system as it was before Orlando won the lottery for the second time. Fourteen of 105 balls would be the most a team could earn, which is only a 13.3% chance of winning. The system is still weighted, but the incentive to tank is significantly reduced. The downside to bottoming out would outweigh the benefit of slightly increased odds of landing a top pick.

They could also extend the number of picks included in the lottery. Supposing that number was increased to five, being the worst team in the league would guarantee a team to pick no lower than sixth instead of fourth.

I can appreciate a system that attempts to distribute talent to teams in need, since we know that all franchises aren't created equally. Some franchises just have inherent advantages over others. I can't defend a system that provides an incentive such that numerous teams are doing everything reasonable not to compete in late season games. I don't think it needs a complete overhaul. It just needs to shift the formula to a point where losing isn't the best path towards competitiveness.

I think it has to be addressed and this feels like the easiest ease in path.

When teams are drafting guys that take 3-4 years to become impact players then it means tanking has to go on for that time frame to even know if you've actually landed a star caliber player from that initial draft, and to continue trying to secure more chances in case you dropped the ball the first time.

It's become a lottery on a lottery, with very few surefire quick fix players coming through.

Then teams would have to look at more established players to find diamonds in the rough, the way Boston has, and the way Miami has.

But then something would have to de done about the power balance. Super teams like GSW kill the competitive spirit.

[Xatticus]

Or they could just revert to the system as it was before Orlando won the lottery for the second time. Fourteen of 105 balls would be the most a team could earn, which is only a 13.3% chance of winning. The system is still weighted, but the incentive to tank is significantly reduced. The downside to bottoming out would outweigh the benefit of slightly increased odds of landing a top pick.

They could also extend the number of picks included in the lottery. Supposing that number was increased to five, being the worst team in the league would guarantee a team to pick no lower than sixth instead of fourth.

I can appreciate a system that attempts to distribute talent to teams in need, since we know that all franchises aren't created equally. Some franchises just have inherent advantages over others. I can't defend a system that provides an incentive such that numerous teams are doing everything reasonable not to compete in late season games. I don't think it needs a complete overhaul. It just needs to shift the formula to a point where losing isn't the best path towards competitiveness.

I think it has to be addressed and this feels like the easiest ease in path.

When teams are drafting guys that take 3-4 years to become impact players then it means tanking has to go on for that time frame to even know if you've actually landed a star caliber player from that initial draft, and to continue trying to secure more chances in case you dropped the ball the first time.

It's become a lottery on a lottery, with very few surefire quick fix players coming through.

Then teams would have to look at more established players to find diamonds in the rough, the way Boston has, and the way Miami has.

But then something would have to de done about the power balance. Super teams like GSW kill the competitive spirit.

Remove or raise the limit on maximum salaries. The Bulls actually paid Jordan more than the entirety of their salary cap limit for his last couple years on the team, which was a major factor in why they felt the need to break that team up. Increase the penalties for exceeding the caps. Teams won't be able to retain their stars on such affordable (relatively) terms, and they would be much more reluctant to exceed the cap if the penalties were more severe. NBA basketball is just a much more attractive product when the popular players are competing against each other instead of teaming up.

[fbeye343]

What a depressing night. Magic win while Knicks and Sixers lose. We can't afford to drop any further than 5

[drsd]

What a depressing night. Magic win while Knicks and Sixers lose. We can't afford to drop any further than 5

Update:

The Magic's pick:
The Magic can no longer tie the lakers for 3rd worst.
The Magic currently split lottery balls with the Sixers and a coin-toss would determine draft order if outside the top-3.
The Magic is currently 2 full games worse than the Knicks.
The Kings and T'wolves can only tie the Magic. (Orlando wins out and one of those loses out is a tie).
Currently the Magic has a 33.5% chance to draft in the top-3 and the most probable outcome is to draft 5th (30.6%).


The WoRC pick:
The Clippers and Raptors are tied with the Wizards, and 2 full games over OKC at 21. A coin flip determines the order in a tie, which is relevant if the Wizards sandwich in the WoRC table. The Clippers, Raptors, and Wizards are 1/2 back of the Jazz and 2 full games back of the Celts.
Currently the most probable outcome is to draft 24th.


The Lakers pick:
The Lakers is 1 1/2 games better than the Suns.
Currently the most probable outcome is to fall out of the top-3 losing the pick (53.1%). The most probable fate of this pick is for it to slide to 5 (26.5%) (which means the Suns has two top-5 picks in a very good draft).

[cedric76]

What a depressing night. Magic win while Knicks and Sixers lose. We can't afford to drop any further than 5

Update:

The Magic's pick:
The Magic can no longer tie the lakers for 3rd worst.
The Magic currently split lottery balls with the Sixers and a coin-toss would determine draft order if outside the top-3.
The Magic is currently 2 full games worse than the Knicks.
The Kings and T'wolves can only tie the Magic. (Orlando wins out and one of those loses out is a tie).
Currently the Magic has a 33.5% chance to draft in the top-3 and the most probable outcome is to draft 5th (30.6%).


The WoRC pick:
The Clippers and Raptors are tied with the Wizards, and 2 full games over OKC at 21. A coin flip determines the order in a tie, which is relevant if the Wizards sandwich in the WoRC table. The Clippers, Raptors, and Wizards are 1/2 back of the Jazz and 2 full games back of the Celts.
Currently the most probable outcome is to draft 24th.


The Lakers pick:
The Lakers is 1 1/2 games better than the Suns.
Currently the most probable outcome is to fall out of the top-3 losing the pick (53.1%). The most probable fate of this pick is for it to slide to 5 (26.5%) (which means the Suns has two top-5 picks in a very good draft).

I guess you meant 76ers not suns

As long as lal lose their pick i ll be happy.
I don't care about our tank. This draft is overrated. Many good players, none great, definitely not worth tanking

Give me Isaac with the 6th pick and I ll still be happy

Sent from my SM-A310F using RealGM mobile app

[pepe1991]

What a depressing night. Magic win while Knicks and Sixers lose. We can't afford to drop any further than 5

Update:

The Magic's pick:
The Magic can no longer tie the lakers for 3rd worst.
The Magic currently split lottery balls with the Sixers and a coin-toss would determine draft order if outside the top-3.
The Magic is currently 2 full games worse than the Knicks.
The Kings and T'wolves can only tie the Magic. (Orlando wins out and one of those loses out is a tie).
Currently the Magic has a 33.5% chance to draft in the top-3 and the most probable outcome is to draft 5th (30.6%).


The WoRC pick:
The Clippers and Raptors are tied with the Wizards, and 2 full games over OKC at 21. A coin flip determines the order in a tie, which is relevant if the Wizards sandwich in the WoRC table. The Clippers, Raptors, and Wizards are 1/2 back of the Jazz and 2 full games back of the Celts.
Currently the most probable outcome is to draft 24th.


The Lakers pick:
The Lakers is 1 1/2 games better than the Suns.
Currently the most probable outcome is to fall out of the top-3 losing the pick (53.1%). The most probable fate of this pick is for it to slide to 5 (26.5%) (which means the Suns has two top-5 picks in a very good draft).

I guess you meant 76ers not suns

As long as lal lose their pick i ll be happy.
I don't care about our tank. This draft is overrated. Many good players, none great, definitely not worth tanking

Give me Isaac with the 6th pick and I ll still be happy

Sent from my SM-A310F using RealGM mobile app

There is a chance that isaac will be nothing more than streach PF a-la Ilyasova/Mirotić at best Lewis.

Dude can't beat his grandmother off dribble or drive left. Every time when he goes left he stops, turns and shoots fadeaway.

[OrlandoDream]

Update:

The Magic's pick:
The Magic can no longer tie the lakers for 3rd worst.
The Magic currently split lottery balls with the Sixers and a coin-toss would determine draft order if outside the top-3.
The Magic is currently 2 full games worse than the Knicks.
The Kings and T'wolves can only tie the Magic. (Orlando wins out and one of those loses out is a tie).
Currently the Magic has a 33.5% chance to draft in the top-3 and the most probable outcome is to draft 5th (30.6%).


The WoRC pick:
The Clippers and Raptors are tied with the Wizards, and 2 full games over OKC at 21. A coin flip determines the order in a tie, which is relevant if the Wizards sandwich in the WoRC table. The Clippers, Raptors, and Wizards are 1/2 back of the Jazz and 2 full games back of the Celts.
Currently the most probable outcome is to draft 24th.


The Lakers pick:
The Lakers is 1 1/2 games better than the Suns.
Currently the most probable outcome is to fall out of the top-3 losing the pick (53.1%). The most probable fate of this pick is for it to slide to 5 (26.5%) (which means the Suns has two top-5 picks in a very good draft).

I guess you meant 76ers not suns

As long as lal lose their pick i ll be happy.
I don't care about our tank. This draft is overrated. Many good players, none great, definitely not worth tanking

Give me Isaac with the 6th pick and I ll still be happy

Sent from my SM-A310F using RealGM mobile app

There is a chance that isaac will be nothing more than streach PF a-la Ilyasova/Mirotić at best Lewis.

Dude can't beat his grandmother off dribble or drive left. Every time when he goes left he stops, turns and shoots fadeaway.

He has been beating smaller guys off the dribble all year. The dude is like 6'9-6'10 and handles the ball like a guard. Ive seen games from him where he beats his man from the 3 and end up with the layup, and 1, or jump shot. The guy has a complete game. I suggest you watch a couple more or his games.

[Nemesis21]

SOB! We are now tied with Philly for the 4th spot. I hate this organization. Embrace the tank dammit.