2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread Volume 2

[shawn_hemp]

Probably the most contentious ranking on my entire big board would be having Miles Bridges at number 4 and in the same mini-tier as Josh Jackson and Lonzo Ball. So let's compare Bridges' numbers side by side with Jackson's, as well as Jayson Tatum's and Johnathan Isaac's. Among the four Bridges actually averaged the most points per 70 possessions against top 100 competition and did so on the highest eFG% while also being the best defensive rebounder and shot blocker outside of Isaac. His assist numbers are below Jackson's but almost identical to Tatum's and above Isaac's. Despite being criticized for turnover frequency, he, Tatum and Jackson had almost identical turnovers per 70 poss. He doesn't create his own shot as well as Tatum and Jackson and doesn't defend as well as Isaac, but there is an argument that he has the most well rounded game of the entire group, or at the very least, right below Jackson. He is also the youngest of the four, more than a year younger than Jackson and half a year younger than Isaac. Actually, outside the consensus number one player in the entire draft, Markelle Fultz, the only other college prospects younger than Bridges are guys like Jarrett Allen and Harry Giles, who have struggled to live up to their preseason expectations against D1 competition. This is all before we get to the fact that Bridges is probably the most explosive player in this entire draft, with high end strength and the quickness to play either forward position.

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Bridges and Tatum feel like pretty similar players coming into the NBA except Tatum is a bit leaner and seems to have a better handle with the basketball.

Something about Bridges shot mechanics seem off to me as well. He has a pretty low release point. Not nearly as noticeable as Ball, but it might not translate well

He seems like more of a PF than a SF, but you wonder if he will be big enough to play PF against the tougher 4s or quick enough to cover the stretch 4s

Isaac has the height, wingspan, and quickness to have a major impact on the defensive end. Even if he never develops into a capable offensive player, you can be at least somewhat confident he can be a positive on D

With Bridges, I'm not sure on either side of the court.

And that's kind of how I'm feeling about Tatum as well, but he also has shown some pretty nice passing ability and looks a lot more comfortable with the ball than Bridges does.

[Kobblehead]

Is this the first year where we'll have maxed out two threads with draft talk before the lottery even comes around? Good stuff.

[PhilasFinest]

I like Bridges but do not see him in the same light as Tatum/Jackson/Ball.

I really like Tatum and think he's being slept on.

Tatum has an NBA game and size. He has the arsenal to become a lethal isolation scorer at the next level. Get him coached up and comfortable in our system and he could be a nightmare to defend. He also has the size, length to become a decent defender as well, adding to the allure of being a potential 2-way player.

He has most of the 1-1 scoring moves in his pocket already
He's good from mid range. Is crafty 1-1 with pull ups, etc
He can shoot from 3 and shows really good from on his jump shot. 85% FT shooting backs up the potential of becoming a legitimate jump shooter.
Rebounds well (7+ RPG)
Is active with his length on defense (1+BPG+SPG)
Can probably play 2-4 in the NBA.

Imagine Embiid getting doubled. He's capable of being an option on the perimeter from 3 as well as cutting to the basket.
Simmons driving the lane from the perimeter? He's a target for jumpers, cuts and lobs.
Need a bucket? Run him off a screen and he can hit an open jumper or isolate his man 1-1 and get you one.
Smaller defender? Put him in the post and let him punish him with his size/skill.
Bigger defender? he can get to the basket and/or break his man down 1-1.
Add in his activity on the boards, his ability to run the floor and getting his hand on balls on D with our uptempo system?

I think at worst your looking at a Tobias Harris/Rudy Gay like wing in Tatum. That is a pretty good "floor" IMO for someone picked in the 4-6 range. Kid has the tools to become a high level wing, and id be on board with him 100%.

[Negrodamus]

I like Bridges but do not see him in the same light as Tatum/Jackson/Ball.

To me, he's not. The Bridges-Tatum connection doesn't make much sense to me. Bridges is 2 inches shorter in height and is a little over 2 inches shorter in wingspan. He's a worse shooter, worse at getting to the rim.

I still think Tatum should be the number 1 pick.

[Negrodamus]

It's weird that I'm not seeing much on Jacob Evans declaring for the draft. In fact, I've read articles that assume he's returning. 6'7 that shoots a high volume of threes at a very good percentage and is also an incredibly strong defender. I'm sure if he tests the waters, he'll have positive feedback.

[Cheatergriffin]

I saw danny granger comps for tatum, but honestly i see paul george similarities in his game.

[Kobblehead]

I saw danny granger comps for tatum, but honestly i see paul george similarities in his game.

Personally, I don't think he's the athlete or creator that George was coming out. Paul George was the closest thing to Tmac we've seen come along.

[Negrodamus]

If Deonte Burton had this past season as a freshman, would he be in the discussion of top 5 pick? Besides his lack of ability to distribute, he really has no flaws. Sometimes takes questionable shots, but he put up well above average shooting numbers (37.5% from 3, 70% at the rim). Also, some of the best defensive numbers in the draft.

[Cheatergriffin]

I saw danny granger comps for tatum, but honestly i see paul george similarities in his game.

Personally, I don't think he's the athlete or creator that George was coming out. Paul George was the closest thing to Tmac we've seen come along.

Was pressed for time earlier, but def agree on that hes less athletic. A less athletic pg13 is how i see him.

[Mik317]

If Deonte Burton had this past season as a freshman, would he be in the discussion of top 5 pick? Besides his lack of ability to distribute, he really has no flaws. Sometimes takes questionable shots, but he put up well above average shooting numbers (37.5% from 3, 70% at the rim). Also, some of the best defensive numbers in the draft.

I thought he was an undersized 4?

[Negrodamus]

If Deonte Burton had this past season as a freshman, would he be in the discussion of top 5 pick? Besides his lack of ability to distribute, he really has no flaws. Sometimes takes questionable shots, but he put up well above average shooting numbers (37.5% from 3, 70% at the rim). Also, some of the best defensive numbers in the draft.

I thought he was an undersized 4?

He's a 4 like Covington was a 4 in college. I think he'll be a 3.

[LloydFree]

I saw danny granger comps for tatum, but honestly i see paul george similarities in his game.

Personally, I don't think he's the athlete or creator that George was coming out. Paul George was the closest thing to Tmac we've seen come along.

Was pressed for time earlier, but def agree on that hes less athletic. A less athletic pg13 is how i see him.

That's​ a significant difference.

[kriss73]

I didn't see a lot of Fox in college, but why do you guys think that he cannot improve his shooting?
Is it something related to his throwing style?

I mean: his stats (3p%, FT%, FG%) are not so far away from Jrue's stats in college. Jrue isn't a killer with his shot, but neither he is MCW.

In other words: Fox could not be a fit with Simmons from day 1, but if he has room to improve, he could be the best value in the 4-6 range.

[Negrodamus]

I saw a tweet by ISU to Burton about being one of 2 ISU players all time to make the 40/40 club (steals and assists in a season) and it got me thinking about the 40/40 players this year. So I did a little research.

Jordan Bell - 88 blocks, 49 steals
Dedric Lawson- 68 blocks, 41 steals
Bonzie Colson- 50 blocks, 40 steals
Deonte Burton - 49 blocks, 60 steals
Derrick White - 49 blocks, 42 steals
Michael Weathers - 45 blocks, 60 steals
NIcholas Baer - 43 blocks, 48 steals
Ethan Happ - 43 blocks, 67 steals


Just Missed:

Jonathan Isaac- 49 blocks, 37 steals
Tyler Lydon - 49 blocks, 35 steals
Kennedy Meeks- 47 blocks, 38 steals
Devontae Cacok- 44 blocks, 37 steals
EDIT Josh Jackson- 37 blocks, 59 steals
EDIT Sindarius Thornwell- 30 blocks, 66 steals (not just missed, but 30 blocks for a guard is still a lot)

(I did this through sorting blocks, so I missed a few "Just missed")

A few things that stick out:

Deonte Burton, Michael Weathers (a freshman that is looking to transfer from Miami (OH)), and Ethan Happ put up some incredible steals. I'm wondering if Happ's steals are a product of BBIQ and defending big men with shaky handles or if he's really that quick. Weathers isn't going to come out, but he has a decent stat line: 18 ppg, 4 assists, 4 reb... 4.8 turnovers per game. I've already glowed about Burton earlier in this thread.

If we're doing the whole "age to excellence" thing, then it's inconceivable that Dedric Lawson isn't a top 15 pick. At 6'9 with a 7'2 wingspan at the age of 19, he has the aforementioned blocks and steals, 19ppg, 10 rpg, 3.3 apg, shooting 74% from FT (FTr 43%) and 63% at the rim. I am just reading now that he's looking to transfer with his brother from Memphis, but he should really go pro. He's a prototypical PF in the NBA.

Derrick White and Michael Weathers are essentially the only guards on this list, with White being the only one in this upcoming draft. Kobblehead brought White up earlier in this thread, but man, that guy is flying under the radar and he stuffed the stat sheet this year. He should go in the first, but will drop in the second and someone will get a massive steal.

Kinda surprised Meeks got as many steals as he did. Pretty nimble guy for someone that size.

[Negrodamus]

Let me just add, Lawson is the same age as Isaac and Ball.

[Mik317]

I didn't see a lot of Fox in college, but why do you guys think that he cannot improve his shooting?
Is it something related to his throwing style?

I mean: his stats (3p%, FT%, FG%) are not so far away from Jrue's stats in college. Jrue isn't a killer with his shot, but neither he is MCW.

In other words: Fox could not be a fit with Simmons from day 1, but if he has room to improve, he could be the best value in the 4-6 range.

we don't have a great history in terms of having our guards learn how to shoot. That's pretty much all there is to it for many. Also yeah even if he does learn how to shoot...it will take a while. His most common (and lazy) comp is John Wall..who JUST added somewhat of a jumpshot. Yeah we got time...but also kinda don't. There needs to be some forward movement from this point on...if next year we aren't fighting for a playoff spot... some people probably lose their jobs (injuries or not). So having two guys who are developing their jumpers is a hard sell.

THAT being said....... TJ isn't exactly a knock down guy either and we have had some success still. Fox and Simmons may not hit 30% from 3 next year...but they also still won't be that easy to guard. Non Shooters like Rondo and Payton are easy to guard because they also can't shoot FT, or finish. Ideally that isn't a problem with Fox or Simmons (Ben does have some finishing issues to work out tho)...plus the shooting should still come from Cov and whoever is the 2 or 4, plus ideally Embiid. Having shooters at every position is great but not always feasible.

THAT THAT being said, its definitely a concern and probably does push him down the board a bit.

[kriss73]

Luka Doncic is a stud.

He's now leading his team Real Madrid in one of the toughest game of the Liga ACB in Spain.
He is 18 yrs old. I mean: younger than Porter jr.
Something like this:

Read on Twitter

He would be my #1 pick this year....let alone the next.

[kriss73]

I didn't see a lot of Fox in college, but why do you guys think that he cannot improve his shooting?
Is it something related to his throwing style?

I mean: his stats (3p%, FT%, FG%) are not so far away from Jrue's stats in college. Jrue isn't a killer with his shot, but neither he is MCW.

In other words: Fox could not be a fit with Simmons from day 1, but if he has room to improve, he could be the best value in the 4-6 range.

we don't have a great history in terms of having our guards learn how to shoot. That's pretty much all there is to it for many. Also yeah even if he does learn how to shoot...it will take a while. His most common (and lazy) comp is John Wall..who JUST added somewhat of a jumpshot. Yeah we got time...but also kinda don't. There needs to be some forward movement from this point on...if next year we aren't fighting for a playoff spot... some people probably lose their jobs (injuries or not). So having two guys who are developing their jumpers is a hard sell.

THAT being said....... TJ isn't exactly a knock down guy either and we have had some success still. Fox and Simmons may not hit 30% from 3 next year...but they also still won't be that easy to guard. Non Shooters like Rondo and Payton are easy to guard because they also can't shoot FT, or finish. Ideally that isn't a problem with Fox or Simmons (Ben does have some finishing issues to work out tho)...plus the shooting should still come from Cov and whoever is the 2 or 4, plus ideally Embiid. Having shooters at every position is great but not always feasible.

THAT THAT being said, its definitely a concern and probably does push him down the board a bit.

Fine.
Imho we're not yet in the position to worry about fit, we need to pick the BPA at 4 or 5. We need more talent.
And we can't pretend that a rookie is ready to go from day 1 as Embiid: that's why Bayless has a 3-years contract and BC was looking for a veteran guard.
If Fox is a good fit with Embiid and he's the BPA, than we have to pick him and BB has to find a way to put all together (with Simmons and Saric)

[shawn_hemp]

I didn't see a lot of Fox in college, but why do you guys think that he cannot improve his shooting?
Is it something related to his throwing style?

I mean: his stats (3p%, FT%, FG%) are not so far away from Jrue's stats in college. Jrue isn't a killer with his shot, but neither he is MCW.

In other words: Fox could not be a fit with Simmons from day 1, but if he has room to improve, he could be the best value in the 4-6 range.

I don't think too many people think he "can't" develop a decent jump shot, he just hasn't shown any real progress in that regard throughout the year

It's not even a matter of if he can't, Fox just looks to attack the rim first and foremost.

He routinely passed open 3s to drive this year

[HotelVitale]

I didn't see a lot of Fox in college, but why do you guys think that he cannot improve his shooting? Is it something related to his throwing style? I mean: his stats (3p%, FT%, FG%) are not so far away from Jrue's stats in college. Jrue isn't a killer with his shot, but neither he is MCW. In other words: Fox could not be a fit with Simmons from day 1, but if he has room to improve, he could be the best value in the 4-6 range.

One reason is that Fox has been shooting basketballs every day for the past like 13 years of his life and hasn't figured it out yet. Some posters write as though these guys are beginners or something when they've all been through the whole cycle of teams and coaches that high-level prospects go through now; that's not nearly as good as pro shooting coaches etc, but it's significant and most athletes have gotten it better by now.

Also, Jrue was chosen much much later than Fox--he was like the 18th-20th pick iirc--in part because his shot wasn't that advanced. You can afford to gamble on upside later in the draft (like the Spurs just did with Dejounte Murray, e.g.), but hoping a top-5 pick he learns to shoot is a major major risk. We've seen plenty of quick and athletic guys like Wroten, M Teague, MCW, etc not develop reliable shooting and fade out of the league. Fox is quicker and has more ball skills than most of those guys but he's still a risk, and most folks want some more certainty that high in the draft.