2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 3 (season finale)

[ProfessorJM]

The biggest advantage for Westbrook is the way his team plays when he is on the bench compared to Hardens.

In the end, this is a key difference for me too right now. I've been Harden all season, but it's hard to ignore how well Houston still plays with Harden on the bench and how badly OKC falls apart with Westbrook out. Of course, it's not so simple as this one stat because there are many variables that come into play, but the fact remains that there is a viable difference consistently that really speaks to how much of a load Westbrook has to carry day to day over 82 games.

[laika]

I just realized that Westbrook is demolishing the NBA record for highest BPM. He is currently at 15.6, which is 20% higher than the best single season recorded previously, Lebron James in 2008-09 (12.99). Westbrook is also on pace to set the single-season record for VORP; he is currently at 12.38, compared to Michael Jordan's 11.98 in 1988-1989.

Data exists for BPM and VORP since the 1973-74 season.

And this is why significantly discounting all box score accumulation stats is a more defensible position.
I would interpret this more as evidence that VORP and BPM are pretty worthless since Westbrook was able to "break" them.

[Doctor MJ]

PSA to Rockets and Thunder fans: Don't go at each other's throats over this MVP race. The people causing most of the commotion are of other fanbases with clear hatred for either of our star players.

I don't think anyone hates Westbrook. They're hating on the media for putting too much stress on a trivial stat that ultimately means nothing.

The triple double is just the cherry on the top but Russ has been a better player than Harden this year. It's not just because of "OMG hurr durr triple double".

I think you're fooling yourself if you think the triple double isn't effectively the deciding factor. switch their rebounding totals, Harden gets the award.

I'll add that I think you're fooling yourself if you think an average voter can effectively judge whose better between these two given the difference in style of play and different levels of team performance.


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[ropjhk]

Jordan in 87, 89 and 93

[bmurph128]

I don't think I've ever seen multiple players/coaches for a team campaign for MVP..

Morey was on Mike and Mike this morning and talked about how wins should matter. At first I was hoping that he was talking about Harden too, since the Rockets are far behind the Warriors and Spurs, but then he started talking about how it's easier to put up numbers when you play on a mediocre team..

So insulting to Russ. I think Morey and Harden talking about it is doing more harm than good.

[Black Jack]

In terms of pure pace-adjusted counting stats, yes, this just might be it. The turnovers kill him in advanced metrics though.

Oscar in 62 with a triple double was behind Wilt and Russell (MVP) in the MVP voting.

Oscar's stats were actually quite a bit lower when pace is taken into account. Even Wilt's 50/25 isn't actually that crazy when accounting for pace.

sorry I meant his 04-05 stats. raw stats of 16.5 and 11.5 just didn't deserve it in my opinion. I liked that squad but the media really hyped them up. his following year's 18.8 / 10.5 raw stats were more reasonable for an mvp winner to me. yeah i realize its a small difference but i really think the MVP should score more than 16.5 ppg.

So not a fan of Bill Russell's MVPs, I take it?

I'll bite. Adjusted for pace, what is Russell's scoring average during his MVP seasons

[MixedUp]

Because the poll only gives you one option for MVP, and according to the format you have in total five players to give points to I created a poll to see who is the MVP candidate of the fans. It will be interesting to see whether the voters will also actually vote on these players.

Cast your vote: Who is the 2016/2017 NBA MVP?
In what could possibly be one of the closest races for MVP ever I am very curious what us (the NBA fans) would vote as the 2016/2017 NBA MVP.

1st place vote = 10 points
2nd place vote = 7
3rd place vote = 5
4th place vote = 3
5th place vote = 1

Vote here: https://goo.gl/forms/sKZm4jSf3bsbw1eC3

[Bergmaniac]

I don't think anyone hates Westbrook. They're hating on the media for putting too much stress on a trivial stat that ultimately means nothing.

The triple double is just the cherry on the top but Russ has been a better player than Harden this year. It's not just because of "OMG hurr durr triple double".

I think you're fooling yourself if you think the triple double isn't effectively the deciding factor. switch their rebounding totals, Harden gets the award.

I'll add that I think you're fooling yourself if you think an average voter can effectively judge whose better between these two given the difference in style of play and different levels of team performance.

I wonder how many of the voters actually watch the MVP contenders on a regular basis. The Denver color commentator last night said that until this game he hadn't watched Westbrook since January and he's a guy with an MVP vote. And listening to many broadcasting crews he's far from the only one who watches mostly his team only a few other games per week.

[warriorschamps]

I don't think I've ever seen multiple players/coaches for a team campaign for MVP..

Morey was on Mike and Mike this morning and talked about how wins should matter. At first I was hoping that he was talking about Harden too, since the Rockets are far behind the Warriors and Spurs, but then he started talking about how it's easier to put up numbers when you play on a mediocre team..

So insulting to Russ. I think Morey and Harden talking about it is doing more harm than good.

The crazy thing about it is the Rockets aren't that much better than the Thunder. It's not like the Rockets are the Warriors. I understand them campaigning for Harden but they have gone too far.

[HotRocks34]

Eveb if Westbrook does not get the PSPA record, I still think that there will be a strong argument for this as the GOAT offensive season in the history of the sport.

nobody whose opinion matters thinks this. He's not touching peak jordan, Curry, Lebron, magic, shaq.

I can't account for statistical ignorance. That's not my responsibility.

I think as the season is examined in more detail, the extent of the feats will be understood and appreciated greater.

I have worked in sports media and had my research used by very high level people in the sports media. So things like "anybody who's opinion matters" are irrelevant to me. Quite honestly, my statistical research is often greater than Joe Media Blow. In fact, I was just written about, to a small degree, in a new GQ article:

http://www.gq.com/story/jeremy-lin-hive

I am Paul Villarreal in that piece.

I am used to being ahead of the curve as regards statistical research.

I am very confident in my assertions as regards Westbrook's season.

Now, Westbrook has not achieved all of these metrics yet. But as and if he does, then the situation will become clearer.

It's not absolutely certain that this is/would be the GOAT offensive season, but there is a very strong case for it as regards the data that is already in and that case could become stronger over the next two games.

The point of my post is that people may not be understanding the magnitude of what they are seeing. As someone with a greater grasp than average of statistics, it's up to me to help put things into perspective.

[HotRocks34]

According to ESPN, Westbrook is now at 30.9 PER.

It would take an epic collapse for Westbrook to finish the season below 30 PER now.

What is more likely, at this point, is that Westbrook has a real chance to become just the 5th man in NBA history to finish a season with a 31+ PER. The other four men are Wilt, Jordan, LeBron and Curry.

Still plenty of work to do, but he now is in position to go for that accomplishment.

[Roscoe Sheed]

I wonder why they played at such a fast pace in the early to mid 1960s.

Also, it dispells a lot of myths about old school basketball being so slow and boring

[HotRocks34]

One other thing as regards the "Points Scored + Points Assisted in a season" chase by both Harden and Westbrook (see my post #411 on the previous page of this thread).

When pace is accounted for, Westbrook (097.8 pace) is almost certainly ahead of Harden (100.0 pace) in that regard.

Or to put it another way, if Harden was playing at the pace that Westbrook was at, it's pretty much certain that Westbrook would be ahead of Harden in the PSPA chase.

This item, I would imagine, may be brought up if and when Harden finishes the season ahead of Westbrook in terms of PSPA.

Both 1961-62 Wilt (131.1 pace) and 1972-73 Archibald (107.3 pace) had significantly higher paces when they set their marks for PSPA.

What this means is that, at the end of the season, Westbrook could own the single-season pace-adjusted PSPA record as well.

Unreal.

[warriorschamps]

I don't think I've ever seen multiple players/coaches for a team campaign for MVP..

Morey was on Mike and Mike this morning and talked about how wins should matter. At first I was hoping that he was talking about Harden too, since the Rockets are far behind the Warriors and Spurs, but then he started talking about how it's easier to put up numbers when you play on a mediocre team..

So insulting to Russ. I think Morey and Harden talking about it is doing more harm than good.

The crazy thing about it is the Rockets aren't that much better than the Thunder. It's not like the Rockets are the Warriors. I understand them campaigning for Harden but they have gone too far.

Anyway neither Westbrook or Harden get my MVP vote. Raw stats are cool and all but efficiently is SO important to me personally. Lebron would get my MVP vote but the Cavs coasted though and underachieved. Kawhi Leonard get MY MVP vote. And before someone say anything crazy realize it's MY MVP vote not yours. For me Leonard has the best combination of team success, raw stats and efficiently. And he does it on the defensive end EVERY night. And I don't care how good of team or coach Leonard has. I'm not going to penalize him for having good teammates and coach. People forgot that part of the reason that guys like Leonard and Curry have such good teams around them is their unselfish nature. Not to take anything away from Westbrook as I've defended him when many haven't but he had a top 3 player on his team that didn't want to play with him. Fair or not I take that into consideration. And Harden to a lesser extent choose to leave OKC and go to Houston where he could make all the money and get all the shots. I'm not criticizing Harden for that but it is what it is. Meanwhile Steph Curry a two league MVP is like the fourth highest paid player on his team and he is still as unselfish as ever.

Speaking of good coachig, it's a lot easier to coach a team when the star player put the betterment of the team first as Curry did with Durant coming in. We saw that for almost two decades with Tim Duncan. Curry could have as we've seen with many star players made Durant transition a lot harder. And the team would of suffered because of that. But Curry didn't see Durant as a competitor but a teammate. Now that's a real MVP. Perhaps I will change my MVP vote to Steph Curry.

[Leslie Forman]

I'll bite. Adjusted for pace, what is Russell's scoring average during his MVP seasons

I don't feel like doing all of them, but if you take his lowest scoring MVP season - 14.1PPG - and then see how much that would be at 2005 Phoenix's pace (95.9) instead of '65 Boston's (123.6), you get…

10.9PPG.

So yeah…you should definitely not like his MVPs.

[Johnlac1]

I wonder why they played at such a fast pace in the early to mid 1960s.

Also, it dispells a lot of myths about old school basketball being so slow and boring

In those days most coaches were ex pros. Offensive strategies were basically get the ball down the floor and shoot it. While I saw some early sixties NBA on tv, I was too young too understand much of what was going on.
Many teams were like Boston got the ball down the floor quickly with many shots coming in transition.
It wasn't until more ex-college coaches like Dick Motta for Chicago came into the league that teams started slowing it down and running more structured, half court plays. Motta was also known for emphasizing def. over off.
Even then some ex-college coaches like Butch Van BredaKolff didn't much like structured offenses/set plays believing the pros knew how to get shots. They, the coaches like VBK, concentrated more on def. and substituting the right players.
But it wasn't like it was totally run and gun. Jerry West said that they did have sets...but you wouldn't know it after watching some of the old games.
I was also surprised recently to see a college game on YT from the early sixties between Indiana and Purdue. Talk about run and gun...no shot clock needed for those boys.
It was also very interesting to me to watch Jimmy Rayl for Indiana. Rayl was a famous gunner from the early sixties. He was known for his extra deep shots. Too bad they didn't have the three ball then.

[Black Jack]

I'll bite. Adjusted for pace, what is Russell's scoring average during his MVP seasons

I don't feel like doing all of them, but if you take his lowest scoring MVP season - 14.1PPG - and then see how much that would be at 2005 Phoenix's pace (95.9) instead of '65 Boston's (123.6), you get…

10.9PPG.

So yeah…you should definitely not like his MVPs.

I'd like to see a center win MVP with 10.9ppg today. We all know it would never happen. Ben Wallace, Gobert, doesn't matter. Flashy wing play will get the votes.

[Andre Roberstan]

He is currently 2nd in DBPM in the league, sandwiched between Draymond and Gobert. Something tells me that stat is heavily flawed...

Westbrook broke DBPM with his defensive rebound numbers.

BPM's generally a decent stat for its purpose, but there are a couple of interactions in it that break it specifically for Westbrook (IIRC related to AST% and USG% and their interactions). Daniel Myers (@DSMok1 on Twitter), the creator of the stat, called it out earlier in the year.

[Johnny Firpo]

It's amazing how the narrative shifted in Westbrook's favor within what feels like a couple of days. Now it looks like Harden has no chance, whatsoever. I'm not saying Westbrook doesn't deserve it - although I think Harden would deserve it more - it's just the fact that the narrative got so strong so suddenly, and you cannot put it all on a couple of really strong outings from Westbrook. Anyway, it doesn't matter now, he clearly deserves it, it's not like he is going to be a Rose-esque choice that made very little sense in 2011.

[markjay]

Because the poll only gives you one option for MVP, and according to the format you have in total five players to give points to I created a poll to see who is the MVP candidate of the fans. It will be interesting to see whether the voters will also actually vote on these players.

Cast your vote: Who is the 2016/2017 NBA MVP?
In what could possibly be one of the closest races for MVP ever I am very curious what us (the NBA fans) would vote as the 2016/2017 NBA MVP.

1st place vote = 10 points
2nd place vote = 7
3rd place vote = 5
4th place vote = 3
5th place vote = 1

Vote here: https://goo.gl/forms/sKZm4jSf3bsbw1eC3

Cool. When will you share the results?