2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 3 (season finale)

[cpower]

I just realized that Westbrook is demolishing the NBA record for highest BPM. He is currently at 15.6, which is 20% higher than the best single season recorded previously, Lebron James in 2008-09 (12.99). Westbrook is also on pace to set the single-season record for VORP; he is currently at 12.38, compared to Michael Jordan's 11.98 in 1988-1989.

Data exists for BPM and VORP since the 1973-74 season.

clearly the formula was broken by some Box scores that Westbrook has put up. In this case, it's probably AST%. Since Westbrook takes 30% of the entire shots the AST% skyrockets and skews.And DBPM is a subtraction of OBPM from total BPM which makes it even more ridiculous. BPM is changing its formula constantly so i do expect it to be toned down in the future.

[GermanFan120]

I have been supporting Leonard on this MVP race, but f it, just give it to Russ.

[Edrees]

In the history of the award, no one has won it on a team that didn't finish in the top 4 record wise. The Thunder have the 9th best record in the league.

Last season we had a team win 73 games and a team come back down 3-1 in the finals w/o homecourt, two records I thought impossible to break. a 50 win team getting mvp isn't mind blowing to me at this point.

[ocelot17]

The MVP has always been determined by wins and individual stats.

Kawhi Leonard has the wins.

Westbrook has the stats.

Harden has the wins and the stats.

[Scizzup]

I just realized that Westbrook is demolishing the NBA record for highest BPM. He is currently at 15.6, which is 20% higher than the best single season recorded previously, Lebron James in 2008-09 (12.99). Westbrook is also on pace to set the single-season record for VORP; he is currently at 12.38, compared to Michael Jordan's 11.98 in 1988-1989.

Data exists for BPM and VORP since the 1973-74 season.

clearly the formula was broken by some Box scores that Westbrook has put up. In this case, it's probably AST%. Since Westbrook takes 30% of the entire shots the AST% skyrockets and skews.And DBPM is a subtraction of OBPM from total BPM which makes it even more ridiculous. BPM is changing its formula constantly so i do expect it to be toned down in the future.

yea, his assist% x usg% and reb% x ast% kind broke it. BPM can't properly quantify what he is doing, 42% usg and 56%ast is crazy.

[Scizzup]

Fair or not narrative/emotion matters and Russ has had more "winning moments" than Harden the last 2 weeks or so. I thought it was Harden 2weeks ago but Russ has the audience attention now.

[Scizzup]

LeBron didn't win it after what was probably his best season, the year Durant won.

eh no it wasn't close to Bron best year and KD was better that year

[Doctor MJ]

I don't think I've ever seen multiple players/coaches for a team campaign for MVP..

Morey was on Mike and Mike this morning and talked about how wins should matter. At first I was hoping that he was talking about Harden too, since the Rockets are far behind the Warriors and Spurs, but then he started talking about how it's easier to put up numbers when you play on a mediocre team..

So insulting to Russ. I think Morey and Harden talking about it is doing more harm than good.

The crazy thing about it is the Rockets aren't that much better than the Thunder. It's not like the Rockets are the Warriors. I understand them campaigning for Harden but they have gone too far.

The Rockets have the 3rd best record and SRS in the league. Their SRS is north of 6, and the 4th best team in the league is down under 4. Meanwhile the Thunder are barely above 1. This is a massive difference. In general it's the difference between one team being elite and the other being mediocre.

What's blurring the lines is the Thunder overperforming in the clutch. I don't mean to imply that that should be dismissed by any means, but to the extent OKC is anything on the same planet as Houston, it's based on Westbrook being able to reliably improve the team in the clutch.

I'm personally leaning:
1. Westbrook
2. Harden
3. Curry

right now.

Westbrook is at a point where it makes sense to give him the benefit of the doubt that he's not just getting lucky...but I'll be watching the playoffs more closely with regards to all 3 of these guys. The real question is what they can do when a team has 7 games devoted to stopping them.

[ciueli]

Had a far better individual season than Nash who won MVP. Nash's team won 9 more games.

That first MVP was real iffy for Nash. Real iffy.

Why so iffy? He was just as much the engine of that team as harden and wb. They just fell apart whenever he wasn't on the floor.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

A few weeks ago I took an advanced stats look at MVPs in the years they kept track of the numbers required for Value Over Replacement, Box +/- and Win Shares.

Looking at the Steve Nash MVP seasons in particular, we see:

2006 - Steve Nash - VORP=4.0, BPM=3.7, WS=12.4
2005 - Steve Nash - VORP=2.4, BPM=1.7, WS=10.9

To put things in context, these are some of the worst numbers that have ever made MVP going all the way back to Kareem-Abdul Jabbar in 1974 (the earliest year basketball reference has stats for). Not only did Nash not lead the league in any of these three stats (frequently the MVP leads in at least one if not all three), he didn't even lead his team in any of the three. Even more than that, he wasn't even second on his team in any of these stats in his first MVP season. Here are the numbers for Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudamire over those two years

Shawn Marion
2006 - VORP=5.9, BPM=5.3, WS=14.6
2005 - VORP=5.5, BPM=4.9, WS=12.5

Amare Stoudamire
2006 - Played only 3 games, stats are meaningless with such a small sample size
2005 - VORP=3.9, BPM=3.4, WS=14.6

In addition, Marion played far more minutes than Nash in both 2005 and 2006, in fact he didn't miss a single regular season game in either of those years. So there's a strong case to be made that Nash was the third best player on his team in 2005 and the second best player in 2006. Yet he won MVPs in both of those seasons.

[ryanpuge]

2010 for Wade...

[Black Jack]

That first MVP was real iffy for Nash. Real iffy.

Why so iffy? He was just as much the engine of that team as harden and wb. They just fell apart whenever he wasn't on the floor.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

A few weeks ago I took an advanced stats look at MVPs in the years they kept track of the numbers required for Value Over Replacement, Box +/- and Win Shares.

Looking at the Steve Nash MVP seasons in particular, we see:

2006 - Steve Nash - VORP=4.0, BPM=3.7, WS=12.4
2005 - Steve Nash - VORP=2.4, BPM=1.7, WS=10.9

To put things in context, these are some of the worst numbers that have ever made MVP going all the way back to Kareem-Abdul Jabbar in 1974 (the earliest year basketball reference has stats for). Not only did Nash not lead the league in any of these three stats (frequently the MVP leads in at least one if not all three), he didn't even lead his team in any of the three. Even more than that, he wasn't even second on his team in any of these stats in his first MVP season. Here are the numbers for Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudamire over those two years

Shawn Marion
2006 - VORP=5.9, BPM=5.3, WS=14.6
2005 - VORP=5.5, BPM=4.9, WS=12.5

Amare Stoudamire
2006 - Played only 3 games, stats are meaningless with such a small sample size
2005 - VORP=3.9, BPM=3.4, WS=14.6

In addition, Marion played far more minutes than Nash in both 2005 and 2006, in fact he didn't miss a single regular season game in either of those years. So there's a strong case to be made that Nash was the third best player on his team in 2005 and the second best player in 2006. Yet he won MVPs in both of those seasons.

I remember there were some people saying Marion should have won an MVP. He really declined and has the ugliest shot in history so it's hard to believe in retrospect but peak Marion really was an MVP level player for a season or two.

[SK21209]

I've got:

1. Westbrook
2. Harden
3. Kawhi
4. LeBron

Interestingly, if we're ranking just who's the best player I think its the exact opposite order.

[Prokorov]

James Harden is averaging 29.3/ 8.1 /11.3
Will this be the best statistical season without an M.V.P ?

i think he is going to win MVP... but whoever from him or westbrook come in second... they are up there... others:

-MJ the year barkley won
-Kidd the year duncan won
-all the years shaq didnt win in his peak years
-MJ the year malone won

[Triples333]

I was listening to a TrueHoop pod the other day and I believe they had mentioned that some of them (who get votes) had already received their ballots. It's possible votes are already done and sent in without some of the last week of games shifting the narrative towards Westbrook. Though I do know that the sites that are currently still taking MVP bets, Westbrook has gone from an underdog as recently as 7 days ago to a MASSIVE favorite right now (Harden averaging 32/9/12 in the week).

[Big NBA Fan]

Steve Nash, we now know was helped tremendously by MDA's PG-friendly system and an amazing supporting cast with guys like Matrix, Amare, Diaw, Barbosa, Joe Johnson, etc.

Was Steve Nash ever an MVP candidate pre-MDA? Never.

Look at how much of a complainer he became under Terry Porter, who had a different offense than Mike D. Nash openly disagreed with it and Porter was fired just 3 months into his first season with the Suns.

Nash missed the playoffs 3 of his last 4 years in Phoenix when Amare either missed a lot of time (2009) and then left as a free-agent; this is before Nash became totally washed-up in Los Angeles.

Look at all the point guards who have thrived under MDA without a supporting cast like Nash had; Felton, Lin, Harden, and heck, even Kendall Marshall played pretty well for Mike D.

The Mavericks were in the Finals just TWO years after Nash left for nothing.

All this talk that Nash "made" STAT, Matrix, JJ, Diaw, etc. is just a slap in the face to those guys.

- Amare was the MVP front-runner with Felton as his PG before the Melo trade.

- Diaw was outstanding for the Spurs WITHOUT Nash.

- Joe Johnson became a franchise player on a perennial playoff team WITHOUT Nash

- Marion was an All-Star without Nash in 2003 and won a title without him in 2011.

Shaq got robbed in 2005 and Dirk/Kobe were robbed in 2006. The ONLY year Nash deserved it was 2007.

But for him to have more MVP's than Shaq, Kobe, Hakeem, Wade, Dirk, etc. is just unbelievable. He was just in the right place at the right time.

MDA deserves the majority of the credit for those MVP's, but the media just wanted to credit Nash for everything because it was the feel-good story and because Nash is such a nice guy.

2005 Shaq was a monster in the regular season before his late-season thigh bruise severely limited him in the playoffs.

23/10/3/2/ on 60 % shooting, 27 PER, 59 win team, less talent in his starting line-up than Nash had. Shaq deserved it that year.

2006; Kobe and Dirk were better than Nash; Kobe only had one good player other than him in Odom and Dirk put up ridiculous numbers that year, led his team to the Finals, and had a better record than Nash.

Steve Nash being a 2 time MVP is just wrong.

[Myth]

I've got:

1. Westbrook
2. Harden
3. Kawhi
4. LeBron

Interestingly, if we're ranking just who's the best player I think its the exact opposite order.

I think a case could be made for Curry to be up there too.

I've got:
1. Westbrook
2. Harden
3. Kawhi
4. Curry
5. LeBron

But there is wiggle room for any order of those bottom 3. Durant is probably next in line.

[Panathinaikos]

Harden

[FlashFlare]

2010 for Wade...

you probably mean 08-09 Wade, leading an utter trash trash Heat team to the playoffs with a 43-39 record

Raw:
79 gp
38.6 mpg
30.2 ppg
5.0 rpg
7.5 apg
2.2 spg
1.3 bpg
49.1 FG% - 31.7 3PTFG% - 76.5 FT%

Advanced Stats:
30.4 PER
57.4 TS%
36.2 USG%
14.7 WS
0.232 WS/48
9.7 VORP

just so happened LeBron had as good of a season with a better team record, but Wade was so awesome that year

[mdonnelly1989]

According to RealGM

#1. Westbrook
#2. Harden
#3. Kawhi
#4. Lebron
#5. ??

[Cresy06]

For me it should be like this:
1. Westbrook
2. Kawhi
3. Harden
4. IT4
5. Lebron

Maybe even Kawhi over Westbrook if you wanna go with the winning record