Jayson Tatum - Duke University (Fr.)
Age on Draft Day: 19 years, 3.5 months
Height: 6’ 8.25”
Wingspan: 6’ 11”
Standing Reach: 8’ 10.5”
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Updated Jayson Tatum DX Breakdown and Video
Introduction
Jayson Tatum is next in line of a recent string of Duke Forwards that will be taken in the lottery, following up Brandon Ingram, Justise Winslow, and Jabari Parker. I went into this season with high expectations and a few questions for Tatum, namely his 3-point shooting and how he’d compete on defense, and while he showed flashes of both I’m not sure he really answered them for me. Physically, Tatum isn’t a raw, explosive athlete on the level of Josh Jackson or Dennis Smith Jr., but he has shown some sneaky athleticism at times and boasts a solid frame that should be able to pack on some muscle with solid-but-not-great length for an NBA Small Forward with the ability to play some small ball Power Forward like he did a lot at Duke. A lot of his offensive production comes out of isolation in various areas, but he was most successful working out of the mid-range on the wings where he could work his jab step and short crossovers to get his man off balance for a mid-range jumper or to get to the rim. He’s comfortable from scoring at all 3 levels at a relatively efficient rate (33.2% shots at the rim on 62 FG%, 35% of shots were 2-point jumpers on 39.4 FG%, 32% of shots from 3-point range on 34.2 3PT%), but was more successful as a catch-and-shoot guy from 3 with 35 of his 40 3-point shots being assisted. While his 3-point shooting wasn’t stellar this season, his proficiency at the free throw line (85%), sound shooting form, and high release lead me to believe he can further develop his outside shot to be a successful shooter from NBA 3. Tatum handles the ball fairly well for his position and became more capable at creating shots for himself and others as the season progressed, to the point where he might be able to expand his positional versatility and be comfortable playing spot minutes as a big Shooting Guard in bigger lineups in addition to a small ball Power Forward. He’s about average defensively in my eyes, he isn’t shockingly bad or lackadaisical and made some good plays in college, but he doesn’t project to be a lock down defender at the next level for me because he’s not overly long or active on that end and gets caught ball watching and out of a defensive stance off the ball more than you’d like.
Jayson Tatum’s game really doesn’t have a lot of glaring weaknesses to me: he’s got decent size, solid handles that need a little polish, a nice shooting form to build on, isn’t a big negative on defense, and he’s a pretty good playmaker. My questions with him as a prospect is that I don’t know if the one thing that I consider him elite at compared to the rest of the draft, isolation scoring, is as desirable of a trait for the game right now. He projects to be a good 3-point shooter, but in practice he was below-average at 34.2 3PT%, and only 30.8% if you remove the one outlier game where he exploded and made 6/7 3PT shots, and he’s only going to have less space to shoot and more distance from the rim at the next level. As I said, I think he’ll be fine and adjust to the NBA 3-point line, but it was a concern I had with him going into college despite thinking highly of him and I didn’t see him expand his range as much as I would have liked. It’s worth mentioning to me because a mid-range pure isolation scorer with average-to-slightly above-average athleticism that isn’t big positive on defense doesn’t have the same value as it used to in a more analytics-driven NBA, and not having a catch and shoot 3-point shot as a wing in today’s NBA can limit spacing and restrict the offense unless you’re a good off-ball scorer, which I’m not sure I’d call Tatum.
Offensive Ability
Tatum has the most polished offensive game out of his Small Forward competition in terms of shot creation and comfort scoring at a reasonable efficiency from all 3 levels of the court. He’s got a very good face-up and jab step game in the mid-range that takes advantage of his quickness compared to college Power Forwards and comfort putting the ball on the floor. In addition, his ability to use his size, his smoothness, and his quick release makes him very dangerous on turnarounds and fade-aways from mid-range. His abilities in the mid-range post transferred well for him down low as well, where according to DX he was in the 99th percentile of point per possession out of the post, which could prove to be a valuable tool in the NBA where switching on defense is more common and offenses focus on creating mismatches. I have questions on how his isolation scoring will translate to the NBA when he’s matched up against much more athletic Small Forwards than the Power Forwards he was typically going up against in college basketball, but there’s no denying that he was very successful creating and making his shot in the post, off the dribble, at the rim, and everywhere inside of the arc in college basketball and I expect him to find ways to score in the NBA as well, it’s more a matter of how efficiently he will be able to do it if he doesn’t expand his range. With that said, I have no reason to think he won’t be able to step out to the NBA 3-point line and be an above-average shooter when I consider that he’s has good shooting form with a high release, he shot a respectable percentage in college on reasonable volume, and he’s a very good free throw shooter. I personally expect him to get up to around 38% from 3 on a decent volume, but he wouldn’t be the first player to just not have the range despite being a proficient shot maker inside the line.
Despite being an isolation-oriented wing, I wouldn’t call Tatum a black hole on offense, as I felt he showed he’s willing to move the ball on offense and find the open man when the defense collapses on him attacking the basket, but he ended up being the best option toward the end of the shot clock at times because of his isolation scoring ability. He posted a decent 12.2 AST%, although it is third worst among Small Forward prospects in DX’s Top 15, ahead of only Jonathan Isaac and OG Anunoby. I felt like he was not as active spots in cutting to open spots off the ball as I’d like to see, but that could be in part due to Duke’s offense focusing a lot on isolation and drive-and-kick with numerous guys who really like to attack and score such as Tatum, Kennard, Allen, and it would also help explain 88% of his made 3-point shots this season being assisted despite only 12% of his mid-range and 30% of his shots at the rim were assisted on. Overall, if Tatum can become the 3-point shooter I think he has the potential to be, and Josh Jackson’s free throw shooting remains terrible and 3-point shot percentage doesn’t translate to the NBA, I see him having the biggest offensive impact out of him, Jackson, and Isaac.
Passing
I had a tough time getting a read on just how good and wiling of a passer that Tatum is this year. He’d have moments where he’d look to pass to the point where he was overpassing and trying to do too much on offense instead of taking what the defense gives him, and there would be times where he’d have tunnel vision and miss kick-outs and dump offs down low in favor of settling for mid-range jump shots. I saw flashes of him being a playmaker, and I’ll hardly fault someone for trying to create for others even when I think they’re trying to do too much, but he needs to work on his decision-making skills on the drive to read the defense and pick the best, correct play to make. Sometimes I felt like he had his mind made up that he was going to pass or shoot before he even read the defense and put the ball on the floor.
Ball Handling
Tatum has a pretty significant advantage in ball handling compared to Isaac, and while I’d consider his ball handling skills similar to Jackson in that they’ve both shown they have some ability to break down defenders off the dribble, but both need to work on keeping their dribble down, protecting the ball on the drive, and improve their overall feel for putting the ball against the deck against stronger defenders. He has a nice foundation of moves with hesitation dribbles, decent shake to his crossover, comfort pulling up off the dribble and stepping back into shots, and his frame suggests he’ll be able to put on the weight to make it difficult to get him off balance and be physical with him on drives. I think his ball handling skill and ability to create angles and separation against defenders is what will set him apart and make him a more versatile offensive weapon than Isaac, and unless Jackson’s 3-point shooting the last few months of college ball was real and his free throw shooting improves, he should be the better offensive weapon.
Defense
Out of the top 3 potential Small Forward prospects, I feel comfortable saying that Tatum will have the least impact on the defensive end in the NBA, partially because he has a physical disadvantage to his competition, namely length with Jonathan Isaac and athleticism with Josh Jackson. He wasn’t a bad defender at Duke, and he did a good job on the defensive boards for a Small Forward playing as a Power Forward a lot of the time, but he doesn’t have the constantly engaged, lock-down mentality on defense that I see when I watch Josh Jackson on defense. I don’t think he’ll be a major liability in the NBA on defense because he has a solid frame and a pretty good feel for positioning when he’s focused; I just don’t see him every being a top 2 defender on a successful team.
Fit with the Phoenix Suns
If the Suns drop from the top 3, there’s a good chance that Tatum would be seen as the best player available and be selected by us, but I’m not sure how much I like his fit. To take advantage of his best abilities he needs the ball in his hands in isolation, which Devin Booker already does plenty of while being a much better outside shooter, and 2 isolation scorers on the wings with Bledsoe also being more of a scoring guard could lead to a lot of ball-stopping possessions. Not to mention one of the biggest issues with the Suns right now is defense, which Tatum isn’t much of an upgrade over Warren this year if at all. If Tatum can improve his catch-and-shooting from NBA 3 to the high-30s or so then I could see the fit more because he’s also shown he's a decent playmaker, but if not the Suns already have a mid-range isolation scorer who is better off-the-ball in TJ Warren that doesn’t demand the ball as much to be successful.
Conclusion
Overall, I’d say I’m a fan of what Tatum could be in the NBA and think he’d be a good second option with the potential to develop into a first option if he can be consistency from 3-point range and can turn the flashes of playmaking ability into a consistent weapon, but I don’t think I see him being the best player on a championship team. When I watch him, I see a player that is pretty good at a lot of things, but I’m not sure there’s a skill I’d consider him elite at besides creating his own shot. I’m personally not a huge fan of him as the Small Forward of the future for the Suns because I think his skill set clashes a lot with Booker and we would benefit from someone who is more impactful on the defensive end and doesn’t require a lot of the ball to have an impact on the game on offense, but I could see our Front Office thinking highly of him. I like his fit best in Orlando where they could use a go-to scorer and outside shooting on the wings if he turns out to be the shooter he’s projected to be.
Next up due to popular demand: Josh Jackson
Excited to pump out the Josh Jackson one, as you guys probably know I'm a big Kansas fan and think highly of Josh, especially for the Suns. This one should be considerably quicker than Tatum's considering I watched every Kansas game this year, but I'm going to go back and re-watch a few the tougher individual match ups this weekend and hopefully have it ready by Wednesday. Obviously I'll do my best to remain as objective as possible and definitely won't pretend he doesn't have his flaws and red flags. After that will be Lonzo Ball, then I'll take a couple requests if there are any. Thanks for reading and discussing fellas, I appreciate it.