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Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships

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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1961 » by KingRobb02 » Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:45 pm

Xatticus wrote:
KingRobb02 wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
The NBA draft is structured such that the teams in most need of talent have significantly enhanced odds of acquiring the best young players entering the league. I'm not sure how you can portray that as anything other than an effort to maintain parity. This only makes sense if you interpret this as a function of 30 franchises operating in the best interest of the league as a whole. The league (and everyone in it) benefits from generating as much interest in its product as possible. The draft wouldn't be a legal endeavor if not for the anti-trust exemptions the league holds for operating as a single economic enterprise. These activities would otherwise be anti-competitive or collusive.

I'm not a proponent of the way that professional sports are run in this country (I despise it actually), but it is necessary to understand the role that the draft serves (as well as free agency, trades, and contract types). Both the NBA and the NBPA have larger concerns than how much freedom their new employees/members have in choosing where they work (as does any corporation). Their goal is to grow the product and to enhance their ability to generate revenue for the league as a whole.

If a player wants more freedom in where they play, they are free to offer their services anywhere else on the planet outside of the NBA/NBDL. There is nothing anywhere that stipulates that professional basketball players have to play in the NBA, and there are many alternatives to the NBA. Almost every player capable of playing in the NBA does because of the economic benefits of doing so. Those economic benefits are reaped by the specific practices in question.

It's not a real effort to maintain parity that's why. In reality, even the best rookies are usually around a C+ at most. There's a reason that only two #1 overall picks have won titles as the best player for the team that drafted them in the past 30 years. Looking at this year's draft, who has been the best rookie? A 24 year old 2nd rounder. Is he helping to shore up a struggling franchise? No. He's playing big minutes for a playoff team. If you want to be honest about the what's best for the NBA, it is to do what is best for it's players. That means putting them in position to grow and succeed long term. Is anyone enjoying the Russell, Smart, Ingram trio in LA? No. Is LA having those three 5 star recruits helping to increase parity? Not at all. Okay you might think they are young. How about a guy like Anthony Davis. There is no denying he is a star. This is year 5 for him. How long before he wins his first playoff game?

If you want to see what an NBA with parity looks like, go back to the 70s. Do you know why Magic and Larry had to "save" the NBA by playing on super teams? Because parity was uninteresting. Back in those days, you could have an NBA Finals where a 47 win team beat a 44 win team and no one would watch. Interest in basketball comes from having stars in the spotlight. You do this by putting them in a position to succeed and that usually means better players on better teams.


I think that's true to some extent. Where I'd disagree though, is that the alternative would only exacerbate inequality. Bird and Magic are often credited with saving the league, but they didn't really. They just elevated what was still something of a fringe sport at the time. Both were stars from the moment they entered the league via the draft. Bill Russell's Celtics were far more dominant than those iterations of the Celtics and Lakers, but he certainly wasn't the impetus for the rise of the NBA.

The game has certainly changed though. I think the technical quality is vastly superior to what it was years ago, which has pushed back the development time required to excel at the NBA level, but it's also more commonplace for the game's biggest stars to team up via free agency. We are also seeing the league revolutionized by analytics, which is giving a clearer indication of what skills actually result in wins. This has made the path from the bottom to the top that much tougher to climb, but eliminating the draft would make this a nearly impossible task for most franchises.

We both know there are other reasons Oscar, Bill, Wilt, and Elgin weren't embraced by America as stars.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1962 » by rcklsscognition » Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:54 pm

EP in March/April for his career:

PPG/APG

16-17'

12.7/8.4
15/8.4

15-16'

11.1/7.5
9.6/8.3

14-15'

13.2/8.4
9.5/8.4

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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1963 » by Magic_Kingdom » Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:55 pm

RickB-Orlando wrote:
KingRobb02 wrote:
Mr Magic Fan wrote:I love the idea of teams not having draft rights based on their record but selecting another team as a proxy. Similar to Celtics and nets this year. Essentially the worst team gets first on which other teams pick they want. There would be no reason to tank because you don't own your pick. I doubt it will happen but it would be awesome.

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So being bad this year lets you pick who you think will be bad next year, to get you a better pick?


I prefer the inverted draft. Basically teams draft from best record to worst, first to 14th, that don't make the playoffs. Thus even teams that are out of the playoff hunt have a reason to try to win as much as possible.

It's the one way I have heard of that would essentially stop rewarding teams for tanking, which I think is an excellent concept that the league needs to embrace. Rewarding teams for tanking needs to be fixed somehow.


The problem with this is that no team will want the 7th or 8th playoff spots, because the difference between that and finishing 9th is the #1 or #2 pick, guaranteed. There will be a Battle Royale to not make the playoffs if you're on the cusp.

The NBA should just go back to their original lottery system. They changed it after the Magic got the #1 pick two years in a row, because other teams thought it wasn't fair to the really bad teams. So they made it more heavily weighted, to the point where it is almost an inverse order system. Which is what they were trying to avoid when they instituted a lottery in the first place, so there wouldn't be a reward for finishing worst. Essentially, the NBA legislated based on an anomalous situation, and now they have a broken system. It absolutely needs to be fixed. Tanking is an embarrassment to the league.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1964 » by OrlandoNed » Tue Apr 11, 2017 2:01 pm

rcklsscognition wrote:EP in March/April for his career:

PPG/APG

16-17'

12.7/8.4
15/8.4

15-16'

11.1/7.5
9.6/8.3

14-15'

13.2/8.4
9.5/8.4

Image

If only the NBA season lasted from March to April instead of November to April. Funny that his best months always come long after we're out of the playoff picture every year and the results of the games don't matter.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1965 » by Xatticus » Tue Apr 11, 2017 2:05 pm

KingRobb02 wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
KingRobb02 wrote:It's not a real effort to maintain parity that's why. In reality, even the best rookies are usually around a C+ at most. There's a reason that only two #1 overall picks have won titles as the best player for the team that drafted them in the past 30 years. Looking at this year's draft, who has been the best rookie? A 24 year old 2nd rounder. Is he helping to shore up a struggling franchise? No. He's playing big minutes for a playoff team. If you want to be honest about the what's best for the NBA, it is to do what is best for it's players. That means putting them in position to grow and succeed long term. Is anyone enjoying the Russell, Smart, Ingram trio in LA? No. Is LA having those three 5 star recruits helping to increase parity? Not at all. Okay you might think they are young. How about a guy like Anthony Davis. There is no denying he is a star. This is year 5 for him. How long before he wins his first playoff game?

If you want to see what an NBA with parity looks like, go back to the 70s. Do you know why Magic and Larry had to "save" the NBA by playing on super teams? Because parity was uninteresting. Back in those days, you could have an NBA Finals where a 47 win team beat a 44 win team and no one would watch. Interest in basketball comes from having stars in the spotlight. You do this by putting them in a position to succeed and that usually means better players on better teams.


I think that's true to some extent. Where I'd disagree though, is that the alternative would only exacerbate inequality. Bird and Magic are often credited with saving the league, but they didn't really. They just elevated what was still something of a fringe sport at the time. Both were stars from the moment they entered the league via the draft. Bill Russell's Celtics were far more dominant than those iterations of the Celtics and Lakers, but he certainly wasn't the impetus for the rise of the NBA.

The game has certainly changed though. I think the technical quality is vastly superior to what it was years ago, which has pushed back the development time required to excel at the NBA level, but it's also more commonplace for the game's biggest stars to team up via free agency. We are also seeing the league revolutionized by analytics, which is giving a clearer indication of what skills actually result in wins. This has made the path from the bottom to the top that much tougher to climb, but eliminating the draft would make this a nearly impossible task for most franchises.

We both know there are other reasons Oscar, Bill, Wilt, and Elgin weren't embraced by America as stars.


Yeah. Basketball needed society to evolve before it could grow into one of America's major sports. Bird certainly made the sport more palatable for some fans and Magic was as charismatic as they come, but Dr. J was wildly popular before either of those guys entered the league.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1966 » by KingRobb02 » Tue Apr 11, 2017 2:34 pm

Magic_Kingdom wrote:
RickB-Orlando wrote:
KingRobb02 wrote:So being bad this year lets you pick who you think will be bad next year, to get you a better pick?


I prefer the inverted draft. Basically teams draft from best record to worst, first to 14th, that don't make the playoffs. Thus even teams that are out of the playoff hunt have a reason to try to win as much as possible.

It's the one way I have heard of that would essentially stop rewarding teams for tanking, which I think is an excellent concept that the league needs to embrace. Rewarding teams for tanking needs to be fixed somehow.


The problem with this is that no team will want the 7th or 8th playoff spots, because the difference between that and finishing 9th is the #1 or #2 pick, guaranteed. There will be a Battle Royale to not make the playoffs if you're on the cusp.

The NBA should just go back to their original lottery system. They changed it after the Magic got the #1 pick two years in a row, because other teams thought it wasn't fair to the really bad teams. So they made it more heavily weighted, to the point where it is almost an inverse order system. Which is what they were trying to avoid when they instituted a lottery in the first place, so there wouldn't be a reward for finishing worst. Essentially, the NBA legislated based on an anomalous situation, and now they have a broken system. It absolutely needs to be fixed. Tanking is an embarrassment to the league.

Money. Teams make so much free money by hosting those playoff games that it is worth it to the owner to push for the playoffs even if you won't win a round.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1967 » by KingRobb02 » Tue Apr 11, 2017 2:45 pm

Xatticus wrote:
KingRobb02 wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
I think that's true to some extent. Where I'd disagree though, is that the alternative would only exacerbate inequality. Bird and Magic are often credited with saving the league, but they didn't really. They just elevated what was still something of a fringe sport at the time. Both were stars from the moment they entered the league via the draft. Bill Russell's Celtics were far more dominant than those iterations of the Celtics and Lakers, but he certainly wasn't the impetus for the rise of the NBA.

The game has certainly changed though. I think the technical quality is vastly superior to what it was years ago, which has pushed back the development time required to excel at the NBA level, but it's also more commonplace for the game's biggest stars to team up via free agency. We are also seeing the league revolutionized by analytics, which is giving a clearer indication of what skills actually result in wins. This has made the path from the bottom to the top that much tougher to climb, but eliminating the draft would make this a nearly impossible task for most franchises.

We both know there are other reasons Oscar, Bill, Wilt, and Elgin weren't embraced by America as stars.


Yeah. Basketball needed society to evolve before it could grow into one of America's major sports. Bird certainly made the sport more palatable for some fans and Magic was as charismatic as they come, but Dr. J was wildly popular before either of those guys entered the league.

I don't think Doc was as popular as you are giving him credit for. He played most of his prime years in the ABA, which was a league that most people thought of as clearly inferior to the NBA and didn't really have the same exposure. Same goes for Gervin. Doc is part of my argument for why the parity era wasn't good for business. Kareem is one of like 4 guys who could be thought of as the greatest ever, and no one ever mentions him with Jordan. He's Doc and Walton's pick, along with pretty much every star from the 70s, but no love. Doc finished his career in the top 10 for both steals and blocks, but no one ever brings him up on the greatest defenders ever lists for some reason. The 70s just weren't great for cultivating stars.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1968 » by Xatticus » Tue Apr 11, 2017 3:15 pm

KingRobb02 wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
KingRobb02 wrote:We both know there are other reasons Oscar, Bill, Wilt, and Elgin weren't embraced by America as stars.


Yeah. Basketball needed society to evolve before it could grow into one of America's major sports. Bird certainly made the sport more palatable for some fans and Magic was as charismatic as they come, but Dr. J was wildly popular before either of those guys entered the league.

I don't think Doc was as popular as you are giving him credit for. He played most of his prime years in the ABA, which was a league that most people thought of as clearly inferior to the NBA and didn't really have the same exposure. Same goes for Gervin. Doc is part of my argument for why the parity era wasn't good for business. Kareem is one of like 4 guys who could be thought of as the greatest ever, and no one ever mentions him with Jordan. He's Doc and Walton's pick, along with pretty much every star from the 70s, but no love. Doc finished his career in the top 10 for both steals and blocks, but no one ever brings him up on the greatest defenders ever lists for some reason. The 70s just weren't great for cultivating stars.


I don't know. This was before ESPN changed the landscape. There is a recency bias that is pervasive with every sport these days. I was a kid at the time, but I recall that Dr. J was revered in the same way Jordan would be later. Erving's 76ers were a powerhouse and he was the one player in the league above all others that you wanted to watch play. His ABA days were before my time.

Kareem wasn't well-liked by fans (something that Airplane! made a joke of). I still don't know why, except to say that the Lakers were Johnson's team when I was a kid and nobody blamed Magic for anything (I was a Lakers fan when I was a kid). The name change probably didn't sit well with many fans either, though I was thoroughly oblivious to the purpose of it.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1969 » by KingRobb02 » Tue Apr 11, 2017 3:37 pm

Xatticus wrote:
KingRobb02 wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
Yeah. Basketball needed society to evolve before it could grow into one of America's major sports. Bird certainly made the sport more palatable for some fans and Magic was as charismatic as they come, but Dr. J was wildly popular before either of those guys entered the league.

I don't think Doc was as popular as you are giving him credit for. He played most of his prime years in the ABA, which was a league that most people thought of as clearly inferior to the NBA and didn't really have the same exposure. Same goes for Gervin. Doc is part of my argument for why the parity era wasn't good for business. Kareem is one of like 4 guys who could be thought of as the greatest ever, and no one ever mentions him with Jordan. He's Doc and Walton's pick, along with pretty much every star from the 70s, but no love. Doc finished his career in the top 10 for both steals and blocks, but no one ever brings him up on the greatest defenders ever lists for some reason. The 70s just weren't great for cultivating stars.


I don't know. This was before ESPN changed the landscape. There is a recency bias that is pervasive with every sport these days. I was a kid at the time, but I recall that Dr. J was revered in the same way Jordan would be later. Erving's 76ers were a powerhouse and he was the one player in the league above all others that you wanted to watch play. His ABA days were before my time.

Kareem wasn't well-liked by fans (something that Airplane! made a joke of). I still don't know why, except to say that the Lakers were Johnson's team when I was a kid and nobody blamed Magic for anything (I was a Lakers fan when I was a kid). The name change probably didn't sit well with many fans either, though I was thoroughly oblivious to the purpose of it.

You're right about ESPN changing things. Before the 80s, the NBA Finals were still being showed on a tape delay. Live basketball just wasn't in demand. But you are pretty on the nose about why America didn't rock with Kareem. Especially after everything that went down with Ali. Can you imagine if someone of Lebron's stature changed his name?
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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1970 » by RickB-Orlando » Tue Apr 11, 2017 7:34 pm

OrlandoNed wrote:
rcklsscognition wrote:EP in March/April for his career:

PPG/APG

16-17'

12.7/8.4
15/8.4

15-16'

11.1/7.5
9.6/8.3

14-15'

13.2/8.4
9.5/8.4

Image

If only the NBA season lasted from March to April instead of November to April. Funny that his best months always come long after we're out of the playoff picture every year and the results of the games don't matter.


Ive just about concluded that Elf is fools gold. Shows flashes, enough to catch your eye, not not really valuable.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1971 » by RickB-Orlando » Tue Apr 11, 2017 7:49 pm

KingRobb02 wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
KingRobb02 wrote:We both know there are other reasons Oscar, Bill, Wilt, and Elgin weren't embraced by America as stars.


Yeah. Basketball needed society to evolve before it could grow into one of America's major sports. Bird certainly made the sport more palatable for some fans and Magic was as charismatic as they come, but Dr. J was wildly popular before either of those guys entered the league.

I don't think Doc was as popular as you are giving him credit for. He played most of his prime years in the ABA, which was a league that most people thought of as clearly inferior to the NBA and didn't really have the same exposure. Same goes for Gervin. Doc is part of my argument for why the parity era wasn't good for business. Kareem is one of like 4 guys who could be thought of as the greatest ever, and no one ever mentions him with Jordan. He's Doc and Walton's pick, along with pretty much every star from the 70s, but no love. Doc finished his career in the top 10 for both steals and blocks, but no one ever brings him up on the greatest defenders ever lists for some reason. The 70s just weren't great for cultivating stars.

That's largely because the league almost failed in the 70's. It wasn't until Bird and Magic that it started to gain some marketing momentum, and the along came Jordan. The league really struggled until at least the late 70's, maybe even the early 80's. If you're interested in the era of the 70's NBA, David Halbertam's book *The Breaks of the Game* is an interesting read.

Plus you really can't overstate the impact that David Stern had on turning the league around. Start with the salary cap, which basically saved the owners from themselves. Add in the marketing genius that Stern brought to bear, plus a touch of luck with the addition of Jordan and Olajuwon in 1984 and the league really turned things around. If not for Stern it's not at all impossible the league would have remained a second-tier organization, or even failed completely.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1972 » by RickB-Orlando » Tue Apr 11, 2017 7:54 pm

Xatticus wrote:
KingRobb02 wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
Yeah. Basketball needed society to evolve before it could grow into one of America's major sports. Bird certainly made the sport more palatable for some fans and Magic was as charismatic as they come, but Dr. J was wildly popular before either of those guys entered the league.

I don't think Doc was as popular as you are giving him credit for. He played most of his prime years in the ABA, which was a league that most people thought of as clearly inferior to the NBA and didn't really have the same exposure. Same goes for Gervin. Doc is part of my argument for why the parity era wasn't good for business. Kareem is one of like 4 guys who could be thought of as the greatest ever, and no one ever mentions him with Jordan. He's Doc and Walton's pick, along with pretty much every star from the 70s, but no love. Doc finished his career in the top 10 for both steals and blocks, but no one ever brings him up on the greatest defenders ever lists for some reason. The 70s just weren't great for cultivating stars.


I don't know. This was before ESPN changed the landscape. There is a recency bias that is pervasive with every sport these days. I was a kid at the time, but I recall that Dr. J was revered in the same way Jordan would be later. Erving's 76ers were a powerhouse and he was the one player in the league above all others that you wanted to watch play. His ABA days were before my time.

Kareem wasn't well-liked by fans (something that Airplane! made a joke of). I still don't know why, except to say that the Lakers were Johnson's team when I was a kid and nobody blamed Magic for anything (I was a Lakers fan when I was a kid). The name change probably didn't sit well with many fans either, though I was thoroughly oblivious to the purpose of it.

I forgot how funny that Airplane bit was.

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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1973 » by Bensational » Tue Apr 11, 2017 9:26 pm

Some quality discussions going on the last few pages. Great reading material.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1974 » by Bensational » Tue Apr 11, 2017 9:54 pm

RickB-Orlando wrote:
OrlandoNed wrote:
rcklsscognition wrote:EP in March/April for his career:

PPG/APG

16-17'

12.7/8.4
15/8.4

15-16'

11.1/7.5
9.6/8.3

14-15'

13.2/8.4
9.5/8.4

Image

If only the NBA season lasted from March to April instead of November to April. Funny that his best months always come long after we're out of the playoff picture every year and the results of the games don't matter.


Ive just about concluded that Elf is fools gold. Shows flashes, enough to catch your eye, not not really valuable.


That's the numbers, but what were the stories of those seasons? It feels like each season, we've started with a new coach who has a had a gameplan in mind. We try that, it fails by January, by the allstar break we know if we're in contention for the playoffs or not, and then the gameplan shifts and we run a more free flowing offense and allow Payton to run the game.

Payton seems committed to trying to make a coach's vision work. But look at him lately, and he looks like someone who's own vision has been embraced. We're playing to his strengths, and whilst the wins aren't coming, at least it looks like there's a sense of cohesiveness that is.

I'd really like to see this carry over into next season. Give the team some consistency. Give it an identity. Establish Payton as the commander from Day 1, and let everyone fall in line behind him. He'll work his butt off to make sure everyone gets their shots and their touches. And since Vogel is a people pleaser, that should make him happy.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1975 » by KillMonger » Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:02 pm

For me it's sink or swim next season for elf, if he can carry this momentum and build on it and improve then we're cooking with gas. If not then he's gone at the deadline

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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1976 » by MartinsIzAfraud » Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:22 pm

Immature Luigi wrote:For me it's sink or swim next season for elf, if he can carry this momentum and build on it and improve then we're cooking with gas. If not then he's gone at the deadline

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I don't think he would be gone at deadline, if anything he is a good backup who can run the offense and has chemistry with players.
Will be very interesting what happens with new GM, does he bring in a PG who is capable to start from day 1 or a rookie who will push EP.
A scoring guard.. never heard of one. :roll:
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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1977 » by Nyce_1 » Wed Apr 12, 2017 4:04 pm

OrlandoNed wrote:
rcklsscognition wrote:EP in March/April for his career:

PPG/APG

16-17'

12.7/8.4
15/8.4

15-16'

11.1/7.5
9.6/8.3

14-15'

13.2/8.4
9.5/8.4

Image

If only the NBA season lasted from March to April instead of November to April. Funny that his best months always come long after we're out of the playoff picture every year and the results of the games don't matter.

Or his best months are when he's finally comfortable with a new system. 3rd year, 3rd system, 3rd coach.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1978 » by tiderulz » Wed Apr 12, 2017 5:18 pm

KingRobb02 wrote:
Magic_Kingdom wrote:
RickB-Orlando wrote:
I prefer the inverted draft. Basically teams draft from best record to worst, first to 14th, that don't make the playoffs. Thus even teams that are out of the playoff hunt have a reason to try to win as much as possible.

It's the one way I have heard of that would essentially stop rewarding teams for tanking, which I think is an excellent concept that the league needs to embrace. Rewarding teams for tanking needs to be fixed somehow.


The problem with this is that no team will want the 7th or 8th playoff spots, because the difference between that and finishing 9th is the #1 or #2 pick, guaranteed. There will be a Battle Royale to not make the playoffs if you're on the cusp.

The NBA should just go back to their original lottery system. They changed it after the Magic got the #1 pick two years in a row, because other teams thought it wasn't fair to the really bad teams. So they made it more heavily weighted, to the point where it is almost an inverse order system. Which is what they were trying to avoid when they instituted a lottery in the first place, so there wouldn't be a reward for finishing worst. Essentially, the NBA legislated based on an anomalous situation, and now they have a broken system. It absolutely needs to be fixed. Tanking is an embarrassment to the league.

Money. Teams make so much free money by hosting those playoff games that it is worth it to the owner to push for the playoffs even if you won't win a round.


most teams only make about $1mil in gate receipts per home game.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread 2016 Volume VIII - Defense Wins Championships 

Post#1979 » by SOUL » Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:26 pm

New thread please!
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