Lonzo Ball

[Duke4life831]

What I'm trying to say is basically what you just said, "not to say he shouldn't have been more on that big stage because he certainly should have." And even then, it's a small side point. I'm sure there are plenty of examples of great NBA players that didn't play well in their final College games.

Again, it's just my opinion, but that example of inconsistency is just one example of what keeps someone from elite status when you are trying to determine how their game is going to translate to the NBA. Steph Curry is an NBA player with a long track record of consistency, and that is completely ignoring his shot mechanics. Trying to lump Curry and Ball into any kind of standard of logic isn't going to get anybody very far.

Despite really poor mechanics, Ball shot 41.2% on 194 attempts in one year of college basketball. If I'm an NBA GM that doesn't tell me a whole lot. Certainly not enough to call Ball an "elite" 3pt shooter. And if I'm picking in the top 3, I'd want to take a real close look at what percentage of those attempts were unguarded, assisted, with a hand in his face, as part of high PnR, etc...

The 3pt shot is an extremely important part of the current NBA, especially for PGs. There have been very few college players that have overcome shot mechanics like Ball's in the NBA and been good 3pt shooters. That concerns me if I'm an NBA GM.

Guess I just don't see less than a handful of bad games out of thirty as inconsistency. Also wouldn't draft or expect Lonzo to replicate everything modern NBA point guards do.

A handful of games out of thirty? Out of 36 games he played, 10 of them were sub .300. That's over a quarter of his games. Depending on what we call "elite" 3pt shooting, if you add in the 3 games he shot .333 that's 44% of his games he shot .333 or worse.

He had more games of 33% or better than Curry's final season in college, Klay Thompson's final season, Malik Monk this year, Booker's one year and I can keep going. Youre trying to make him as this hot or cold shooter and thats just not him. Are you trying to say Curry/Booker/Klay are hot or cold inconsistent shooters as well?

[zzaj]

Steph Curry is an NBA player with a long track record of consistency, and that is completely ignoring his shot mechanics. Trying to lump Curry and Ball into any kind of standard of logic isn't going to get anybody very far.

The 3pt shot is an extremely important part of the current NBA, especially for PGs. There have been very few college players that have overcome shot mechanics like Ball's in the NBA and been good 3pt shooters. That concerns me if I'm an NBA GM.

Ball has always been known as a good shooter. So its not like this year is just some outlier. And if you want to talk about consistency in college. Curry's final season he had 22 games of where he shot at least 33% from 3. Again Ball had 26 games this year of shooting at least 33% from 3. So I feel like youre trying to paint Ball as this hot or not shooter and the only reason he has good shooting numbers is because he has some really great games that bump his %s up. Ball was pretty damn consistent all year, only 5 games where he didnt score double digits (4 of those were in wins) and not a single game over 24 points. Again Ball has always been known as a really good shooter, this season was nothing new and he actually put up one of the least up and down seasons for a premier prospect and was super consistent all year long. Ball is kind of the poster child of consistency in this draft.

Duke4life831, I'm not trying to paint any picture other than the one I painted in my original post. I brought up a few things that Ball seems to struggle with and which may raise question marks at the next level, based on what the skill trends are in current PGs. Someone responded by saying Ball was "basically an elite shooter". I responded by basically saying that I didn't think Ball was an "elite" shooter. And I still don't.

Somebody brought up Reddick, as a comparison who has some of the best shot mechanics in NBA history.

Somebody please give me an example of a college player who had a shot that looks as unconventional as Ball who shot the 3pt shot well in the NBA.

I'm not saying Ball is a bad player and certainly not that he'll bust overall in the NBA. I'm simply saying that, with how the current NBA values 3pt production from the PG position, if I'm a GM drafting top 3 I'd be looking very, very closely at every single 3pt shot Ball made in college.

[zzaj]

Guess I just don't see less than a handful of bad games out of thirty as inconsistency. Also wouldn't draft or expect Lonzo to replicate everything modern NBA point guards do.

A handful of games out of thirty? Out of 36 games he played, 10 of them were sub .300. That's over a quarter of his games. Depending on what we call "elite" 3pt shooting, if you add in the 3 games he shot .333 that's 44% of his games he shot .333 or worse.

He had more games of 33% or better than Curry's final season in college, Klay Thompson's final season, Malik Monk this year, Booker's one year and I can keep going. Youre trying to make him as this hot or cold shooter and thats just not him. Are you trying to say Curry/Booker/Klay are hot or cold inconsistent shooters as well?

Of course you can keep going with players that have good shooting form. That's what happens when you have good shooting form--you get better at shooting. Give me a list of players who shot at an "elite" level in the NBA who's shooting form looked as unconventional as Ball's.

Edit: Also, if you want some context, check out page 33 of this thread.

[Derento]

A handful of games out of thirty? Out of 36 games he played, 10 of them were sub .300. That's over a quarter of his games. Depending on what we call "elite" 3pt shooting, if you add in the 3 games he shot .333 that's 44% of his games he shot .333 or worse.

He had more games of 33% or better than Curry's final season in college, Klay Thompson's final season, Malik Monk this year, Booker's one year and I can keep going. Youre trying to make him as this hot or cold shooter and thats just not him. Are you trying to say Curry/Booker/Klay are hot or cold inconsistent shooters as well?

Of course you can keep going with players that have good shooting form. That's what happens when you have good shooting form--you get better at shooting. Give me a list of players who shot at an "elite" level in the NBA who's shooting form looked as unconventional as Ball's.

Edit: Also, if you want some context, check out page 33 of this thread.

Joe Johnson

[Duke4life831]

Steph Curry is an NBA player with a long track record of consistency, and that is completely ignoring his shot mechanics. Trying to lump Curry and Ball into any kind of standard of logic isn't going to get anybody very far.

The 3pt shot is an extremely important part of the current NBA, especially for PGs. There have been very few college players that have overcome shot mechanics like Ball's in the NBA and been good 3pt shooters. That concerns me if I'm an NBA GM.

Ball has always been known as a good shooter. So its not like this year is just some outlier. And if you want to talk about consistency in college. Curry's final season he had 22 games of where he shot at least 33% from 3. Again Ball had 26 games this year of shooting at least 33% from 3. So I feel like youre trying to paint Ball as this hot or not shooter and the only reason he has good shooting numbers is because he has some really great games that bump his %s up. Ball was pretty damn consistent all year, only 5 games where he didnt score double digits (4 of those were in wins) and not a single game over 24 points. Again Ball has always been known as a really good shooter, this season was nothing new and he actually put up one of the least up and down seasons for a premier prospect and was super consistent all year long. Ball is kind of the poster child of consistency in this draft.

Duke4life831, I'm not trying to paint any picture other than the one I painted in my original post. I brought up a few things that Ball seems to struggle with and which may raise question marks at the next level, based on what the skill trends are in current PGs. Someone responded by saying Ball was "basically an elite shooter". I responded by basically saying that I didn't think Ball was an "elite" shooter. And I still don't.

Somebody brought up Reddick, as a comparison who has some of the best shot mechanics in NBA history.

Somebody please give me an example of a college player who had a shot that looks as unconventional as Ball who shot the 3pt shot well in the NBA.

I'm not saying Ball is a bad player and certainly not that he'll bust overall in the NBA. I'm simply saying that, with how the current NBA values 3pt production from the PG position, if I'm a GM drafting top 3 I'd be looking very, very closely at every single 3pt shot Ball made in college.

My main thing Im arguing with you on is this line
"IMO, an elite shooter is a consistent shooter...not someone that goes 1-6 one night and 3-4 the next--for their 40%."

Thats basically implying he has really hot nights and really cold nights and at the end of it all it comes out to 40%. And what I'm saying is that is not Ball at all. To me thats describing Malik Monk. Again Ball had more 33% (which I think everyone would agree thats a solid okay shooting night, not horrible) then guys like Curry, Klay, and Booker. He only had 5 games where he didnt score at least double digits and his career high in scoring was 24. Which is basically saying Ball didnt have much of a drastic up and down type games throughout the season, he was pretty damn consistent with what he was producing.

The critiques on his jumper is a different conversation. If you want to say, his shot mechanics are just so weird and youve never seen anyone succeed with something like that so you have reservations on it, I get that 100% and really cant argue and just say its just a wait and see thing. I can point to guys like Reggie Miller and Kevin Martin who were really good shooter with funky forms, but their form is still different from Ball's.

Just the whole hes not a consistent shooter because he has really cold nights and really hot nights and thats why he has a high average, just doesnt fly for him. His numbers were pretty damn consistent all season long. He wasnt this hot or cold type player.

[Duke4life831]

A handful of games out of thirty? Out of 36 games he played, 10 of them were sub .300. That's over a quarter of his games. Depending on what we call "elite" 3pt shooting, if you add in the 3 games he shot .333 that's 44% of his games he shot .333 or worse.

He had more games of 33% or better than Curry's final season in college, Klay Thompson's final season, Malik Monk this year, Booker's one year and I can keep going. Youre trying to make him as this hot or cold shooter and thats just not him. Are you trying to say Curry/Booker/Klay are hot or cold inconsistent shooters as well?

Of course you can keep going with players that have good shooting form. That's what happens when you have good shooting form--you get better at shooting. Give me a list of players who shot at an "elite" level in the NBA who's shooting form looked as unconventional as Ball's.

Edit: Also, if you want some context, check out page 33 of this thread.

Reggie Miller and Kevin Martin had some really funky looking jumpers and they were both good shooters.

[zzaj]

Ball has always been known as a good shooter. So its not like this year is just some outlier. And if you want to talk about consistency in college. Curry's final season he had 22 games of where he shot at least 33% from 3. Again Ball had 26 games this year of shooting at least 33% from 3. So I feel like youre trying to paint Ball as this hot or not shooter and the only reason he has good shooting numbers is because he has some really great games that bump his %s up. Ball was pretty damn consistent all year, only 5 games where he didnt score double digits (4 of those were in wins) and not a single game over 24 points. Again Ball has always been known as a really good shooter, this season was nothing new and he actually put up one of the least up and down seasons for a premier prospect and was super consistent all year long. Ball is kind of the poster child of consistency in this draft.

Duke4life831, I'm not trying to paint any picture other than the one I painted in my original post. I brought up a few things that Ball seems to struggle with and which may raise question marks at the next level, based on what the skill trends are in current PGs. Someone responded by saying Ball was "basically an elite shooter". I responded by basically saying that I didn't think Ball was an "elite" shooter. And I still don't.

Somebody brought up Reddick, as a comparison who has some of the best shot mechanics in NBA history.

Somebody please give me an example of a college player who had a shot that looks as unconventional as Ball who shot the 3pt shot well in the NBA.

I'm not saying Ball is a bad player and certainly not that he'll bust overall in the NBA. I'm simply saying that, with how the current NBA values 3pt production from the PG position, if I'm a GM drafting top 3 I'd be looking very, very closely at every single 3pt shot Ball made in college.

My main thing Im arguing with you on is this line
"IMO, an elite shooter is a consistent shooter...not someone that goes 1-6 one night and 3-4 the next--for their 40%."

Thats basically implying he has really hot nights and really cold nights and at the end of it all it comes out to 40%. And what I'm saying is that is not Ball at all. To me thats describing Malik Monk. Again Ball had more 33% (which I think everyone would agree thats a solid okay shooting night, not horrible) then guys like Curry, Klay, and Booker. He only had 5 games where he didnt score at least double digits and his career high in scoring was 24. Which is basically saying Ball didnt have much of a drastic up and down type games throughout the season, he was pretty damn consistent with what he was producing.

The critiques on his jumper is a different conversation. If you want to say, his shot mechanics are just so weird and youve never seen anyone succeed with something like that so you have reservations on it, I get that 100% and really cant argue and just say its just a wait and see thing. I can point to guys like Reggie Miller and Kevin Martin who were really good shooter with funky forms, but their form is still different from Ball's.

Just the whole hes not a consistent shooter because he has really cold nights and really hot nights and thats why he has a high average, just doesnt fly for him. His numbers were pretty damn consistent all season long. He wasnt this hot or cold type player.

Yeah, I don't think we necessarily disagree. My comment above was in the larger context of what elite shooting is and having a body of work to back it up. I wasn't trying to paint a picture of Ball as super inconsistent, just not that he's an "elite" shooter.

But, FWIW I don't think Ball is an elite shooter or a particularly "consistent" shooter. IMO, he doesn't have a body of work to back up the label for either.

Joe Johnson
Reggie Miller
Kevin Martin

Here are 3 with probably prettier shooting strokes that have some funk to them. Who are some more? I'm particularly interested in PGs of course. I'm not bringing this to make a point. I'm GENUINELY interested in players (particularly PGs) who have had 'poor' shot mechanics and still were able to shoot at a high level in the NBA.

And again, I want Ball to succeed. As I keep saying, it's been a while since the NBA has had a top PG prospect with Ball's passing talent...I think that is good for the NBA.

[Duke4life831]

Yeah, I don't think we necessarily disagree. My comment above was in the larger context of what elite shooting is and having a body of work to back it up. I wasn't trying to paint a picture of Ball as super inconsistent, just not that he's an "elite" shooter.

But, FWIW I don't think Ball is an elite shooter or a particularly "consistent" shooter. IMO, he doesn't have a body of work to back up the label for either.

Joe Johnson
Reggie Miller
Kevin Martin

Here are 3 with probably prettier shooting strokes that have some funk to them. Who are some more? I'm particularly interested in PGs of course. I'm not bringing this to make a point. I'm GENUINELY interested in players (particularly PGs) who have had 'poor' shot mechanics and still were able to shoot at a high level in the NBA.

And again, I want Ball to succeed. As I keep saying, it's been a while since the NBA has had a top PG prospect with Ball's passing talent...I think that is good for the NBA.

Ball has as much of a body of work to back up being a good shooter as anyone his age could have. Just like his brothers, Ball first begun to get noticed because of his shooting. I dont think there are that many guys you can point to that have funky forms that have been good shooters. Those 3 are the only ones I can think of. And thats why I understand 100% if someone has hesitations on Ball's jumper because of it. But if we are talking about consistency, Ball had one hell of a consistent year.

[The-Power]

Ball has as much of a body of work to back up being a good shooter as anyone his age could have.

He has? 31% (22/70) from 3 in Adidas Nations + Uprising in 2015, apparently 36% (80/224) from 3 in his senior year at Chino Hills. One draftexpress video before the start of the college season mentioned 29.3% on 3's (although I'm not sure which sample they were looking at) and he's 67.3% on FTs at UCLA. That's really not "as much of a body of work to back up being a good shooter as anyone his age could have".

There are plenty of players entering college every year who are better and more reliable shooters than Ball. They just don't have Lonzo's all-around game and the same exposure (playing for Chino Hills, a team that took run and gun to a whole new level at the HS level). Lonzo has been known for his shooting not because he has been overwhelmingly good at it but because he played in Chino Hills' offense and took deep 3's consistently.

[Duke4life831]

Ball has as much of a body of work to back up being a good shooter as anyone his age could have.

He has? 31% (22/70) from 3 in Adidas Nations + Uprising in 2015, apparently 36% (80/224) from 3 in his senior year at Chino Hills. One draftexpress video before the start of the college season mentioned 29.3% on 3's (although I'm not sure which sample they were looking at) and he's 67.3% on FTs at UCLA. That's really not "as much of a body of work to back up being a good shooter as anyone his age could have".

There are plenty of players entering college every year who are better and more reliable shooters than Ball. They just don't have Lonzo's all-around game and the same exposure (playing for Chino Hills, a team that took run and gun to a whole new level at the HS level). Lonzo has been known for his shooting not because he has been overwhelmingly good at it but because he played in Chino Hills' offense and took deep 3's consistently.

Just like his brothers, Ball started to get recognition for his 3 point shooting. He really blew up when he grew and his passing and vision really took a step foward his junior year. He did have a down year shooting his senior season, I actually thought he shot worse than 36% his senior season, but you could be right. Ball freshmen through junior year he was a lights out shooter in high school. Then his senior season happened and thats when a lot of people really began to question if that jumper could translate against better competition.

[Upperclass]

I'm shocked, but not totally at the analysis of Ball's talent and game. He kinda fits everything thats going on in the world currently, where what is supposed to make sense.. actually just doesnt. IMO, you watch him play.. and NOTHING stands out.. He is a solid passer, with above average vision and great passing instincts.but he cannot control a game with his passing like alot of the greats he's compared to. He's not a great ballhandler, he's not a scorer, or a shooter beyond catch and shoots and deep pullups, he struggles in the pick and roll and cant get to the bucket without a head of steam consistently and is an awful defender.

He can jump, but isnt overly athletic. And his main contributions have come in a fastbreak offense in high school, and a fastbreak offense in college. This amounts to me, what the NFL used to call a "Tedford QB". He just seems to be a system guy without any real talents, but has a ton of hype around him..so it gets everyone excited. It's kinda mind-boggling that he's considered a lock for top 2 and even lottery tbh.

[heyPlayer]

He'll have a spot in the NBA because he's marketable and doesn't seem to have personality problems. But he's overrated. His team had really good shooters anyway so it's not hard to get assists and he has good height and length to see over guards and also make those passes.

[Mulhollanddrive]

How far away does he have to shoot his step back 3 in the NBA?

[E-Balla]

Ball has as much of a body of work to back up being a good shooter as anyone his age could have.

He has? 31% (22/70) from 3 in Adidas Nations + Uprising in 2015, apparently 36% (80/224) from 3 in his senior year at Chino Hills. One draftexpress video before the start of the college season mentioned 29.3% on 3's (although I'm not sure which sample they were looking at) and he's 67.3% on FTs at UCLA. That's really not "as much of a body of work to back up being a good shooter as anyone his age could have".

There are plenty of players entering college every year who are better and more reliable shooters than Ball. They just don't have Lonzo's all-around game and the same exposure (playing for Chino Hills, a team that took run and gun to a whole new level at the HS level). Lonzo has been known for his shooting not because he has been overwhelmingly good at it but because he played in Chino Hills' offense and took deep 3's consistently.

He was also 81% from the freethrow line his senior year (77% his Jr year and 80% hits freshman year). Plus the fact that at all levels he shot from NBA range it makes me feel better about his shot translating. Maybe not a super knock down 43% shooter but if he can be 37-39% with the type of shots he takes that's great.

[madmaxmedia]

I think we just have to separate the stats from the form, and having confirmation bias affect how we judge the stats. It appears that Lonzo has not been any more inconsistent than other good 3-point shooters, so you can't point to a 1-for-6 night and go, "see, his bad form will never work in the NBA."

But yeah, all that being said his form is super wonky. I think the problem is less the success rate of the form itself, than the long set-up and release time. I doubt he could ever be Steph Curry with that form, but most shooters can't even with textbook form.

Because of that long set up that goes across his body, we notice the form a lot more than other shooters with unorthodox form. But IMO the main problem is going to be getting that shot off in the NBA. He will never be a high-volume scorer or shooter. Defenses won't be able to sag off him either though like a Rondo. But if he's going to stand out in the NBA, its going to be as a PG first, who can hopefully score in spots as the situation demands.

Duke4life831, I'm not trying to paint any picture other than the one I painted in my original post. I brought up a few things that Ball seems to struggle with and which may raise question marks at the next level, based on what the skill trends are in current PGs. Someone responded by saying Ball was "basically an elite shooter". I responded by basically saying that I didn't think Ball was an "elite" shooter. And I still don't.

Somebody brought up Reddick, as a comparison who has some of the best shot mechanics in NBA history.

Somebody please give me an example of a college player who had a shot that looks as unconventional as Ball who shot the 3pt shot well in the NBA.

I'm not saying Ball is a bad player and certainly not that he'll bust overall in the NBA. I'm simply saying that, with how the current NBA values 3pt production from the PG position, if I'm a GM drafting top 3 I'd be looking very, very closely at every single 3pt shot Ball made in college.

My main thing Im arguing with you on is this line
"IMO, an elite shooter is a consistent shooter...not someone that goes 1-6 one night and 3-4 the next--for their 40%."

Thats basically implying he has really hot nights and really cold nights and at the end of it all it comes out to 40%. And what I'm saying is that is not Ball at all. To me thats describing Malik Monk. Again Ball had more 33% (which I think everyone would agree thats a solid okay shooting night, not horrible) then guys like Curry, Klay, and Booker. He only had 5 games where he didnt score at least double digits and his career high in scoring was 24. Which is basically saying Ball didnt have much of a drastic up and down type games throughout the season, he was pretty damn consistent with what he was producing.

The critiques on his jumper is a different conversation. If you want to say, his shot mechanics are just so weird and youve never seen anyone succeed with something like that so you have reservations on it, I get that 100% and really cant argue and just say its just a wait and see thing. I can point to guys like Reggie Miller and Kevin Martin who were really good shooter with funky forms, but their form is still different from Ball's.

Just the whole hes not a consistent shooter because he has really cold nights and really hot nights and thats why he has a high average, just doesnt fly for him. His numbers were pretty damn consistent all season long. He wasnt this hot or cold type player.

Yeah, I don't think we necessarily disagree. My comment above was in the larger context of what elite shooting is and having a body of work to back it up. I wasn't trying to paint a picture of Ball as super inconsistent, just not that he's an "elite" shooter.

But, FWIW I don't think Ball is an elite shooter or a particularly "consistent" shooter. IMO, he doesn't have a body of work to back up the label for either.

Joe Johnson
Reggie Miller
Kevin Martin

Here are 3 with probably prettier shooting strokes that have some funk to them. Who are some more? I'm particularly interested in PGs of course. I'm not bringing this to make a point. I'm GENUINELY interested in players (particularly PGs) who have had 'poor' shot mechanics and still were able to shoot at a high level in the NBA.

And again, I want Ball to succeed. As I keep saying, it's been a while since the NBA has had a top PG prospect with Ball's passing talent...I think that is good for the NBA.

[Marcus]

How far away does he have to shoot his step back 3 in the NBA?

just far enough to get it off, same as any other player in the league.

[Damkac]

Is it possible that teams pass on him because of his dad?I like Lonzo as a player but thinking about Lavar sticked to my favourite team makes me sick. Any team that will draft Lonzo takes risk of becoming a laughing-stock of the NBA.

[E-Balla]

When was the last time we heard from Jahlil Okafor's dad? Its not an issue.

[jbent87]

When was the last time we heard from Jahlil Okafor's dad? Its not an issue.

Lavar Ball makes Chuki Okafor look like the Pope.

[CeltsfaninDC]

Somebody please give me an example of a college player who had a shot that looks as unconventional as Ball who shot the 3pt shot well in the NBA.

Shawn Marion (LOL)