I_Socrates wrote:With the Wizards - I'm in a bit of a predicament. I need your help in figuring out the overall direction the team will look to take this off-season. The problem is that I'm not sure it's set yet and that I believe it will depend on the results of these playoffs.
1) Which of the teams' FA's will be priorities (a pretty obvious one, but your input is better than mine since you guys are Wiz fans!)
2) How much would the Wizards FO be willing to pay for these FO's?
3) Who is expendable?
4) What backups need to be replaced the most?
5) How much tax are the owners likely to be okay paying?
6) Are there any possible retirements?
7) Is the rift between Beal and Wall a real thing?
8) What is the likelihood that the Wiz use assets to dump $ so they can sign KD if he says he's interested? (Pure hypothetical cause I can!)
Obviously, any other information you might feel is pertinent is also welcome.
Thank you all again for any help you provide - hopefully I can turn your Wizards into the fantasy champions
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Otto Porter is likely underrated across the league and slightly overrated here. But he is key to our core. He had a hot shooting streak to start the year, before teams stopped leaving him wide open. And he was left wide open a lot on dribble drive attacks from that lightning streak of a lead guard. The John Wall effect is real.
The key stat that illustrates Otto's utility is: all of them. He posts in every positive category, and better yet, shows trends of improvement over time, both here and in Georgetown. Otto is a gym rat and a grinder and the son of two basketball lifers. Its in his DNA, he never played AAU ball preferring to work in the gym and improve his game. He has a high basketball IQ and is an ideal fit with the core of this team. In addition our owner is a Georgetown alum and Otto is a good guy, high character guy. We will pay to retain him. Where does he fit with the squad: he's a prototypical SF. Long and rangy, hits outside shots when left alone, savvy in cuts to the basket he posts good offensive board numbers. Where he could stand to improve: strength, and any advanced go to move when actually guarded. In college he was alpha dog on his team but still never had a single dangerous move, just made smart plays. He's a glue guy. That's what this team needs from him since we have capable lead scorers in Wall and Beal. But it would be useful of he could co-captain the team when either of them is injured and not settle into a beta role.
John Wall and Bradley Beal both took a great leap forward this year under new coach Scott Brooks. And this figures to be what the team is banking on: continued player development. We want to see significant positive improvement from our young players. This is the best hope of this team sustaining growth. This year is a banner year draft year, and because of that many East Coast teams failed to try, future years may prove trickier. Without draft picks (no 1st rounder this year, and future 2nd rounders are gone as well) or significant assets to trade, we have to rely on development from within.
The player with the greatest upside of undeveloped talent is 2nd year utility wing Kelly Oubre. Kelly has proven a defensive difference maker, with his hustle and length and smooth fluid athleticism he has shown ability to guard players at the 1-4 spots. He only needs to develop his 3pt shot to be a reliable and viable player earning heavy PT. But the rest of his game has a long way to go to match his upside with his accomplishment. Or vice versa, whatever. Lacking minutes of playtime both in college and as a rookie what he needs most is live bullet exercises, in game experience. This year noted player development coach Scott Brooks has found ways to use him. And I expect with a taste of the playoffs he will dedicate himself over the summer to fixing flaws in his game and expanding what he does well. Because he will see minutes in the post season, for sure. Our small ball lineup with Oubre and Otto at forward (and either of Gortat or Morris in the middle) proved a tough puzzle to solve when we could afford to get away with it. Rangy long athletes at all wing positions meant on defense we could switch every pick and stifle any outside attack or prevent dribble drives. Oubre's development may eventually allow Otto to be dangled to a team that loves him, but for now we're keeping both, and are all the better for it.
So consider our core untouchables/untradeables to be: Wall, Beal, Otto, Oubre. Meaning they are worth more to this team than we would get in trade.
Our other key players: Marcin Gortat, Ian Mahinmi; Markieff Morris, and bizarrely Jason Smith.
CENTERS: Gortat is a pro's pro. Works hard in the gym, sets great screens to spring Beal and John for open shots. Even when his own numbers tapered off, he still has a positive effect on the squad. HIs numbers did trail off though, coinciding with the addition to the team of Ian Mahinmi this year. Mahinmi is one of the best back up centers in the league and due to the flooded market last year is actually earning more per year than Gortat, who plays ahead of them.
The team doesnt have to jettison either one to succeed. Its a luxury to have depth at the position, Mahinmi proving a more mobile and versatile defender, but Gortat being better at setting strong screens and has shown great chemistry with Wall on the pick and roll. But if ever the team had a chance to trade for a player they liked having redundancy at a position is a nice asset. In this case however Mahinmi has proven fragile over his career. Maybe he needs a nutritionist or yoga instructor or something since most of his issues seem to be muscular strains. This team can't rely on him to be out of street clothes all year.
PFs:
Markieff Morris is a good player when motivated and not distracted. Its no coincidence that our team's 17 game win streak went hand in hand with an uptick in every category from Morris, chiefly rebounding. Rebounding is a stat of focus and effort. Markieff can defend anyone when he cares to, but is often either undermotivated or taken off his game by irritation at the refs, etc. Here the leadership of John Wall and Scotty Brooks seemed to light a fire under him, or maybe he quit weed for a time, or stopped sulking that he wasnt playing with his twin, who knows. A motivated Kieff is the only way this team does any real damage in the playoffs. He's got the talent and fire, when it is channeled in positive directions. His one on one defense is often better than his team defense, and when he cares he plays well against teams that rely on perimeter bigs or strong SFs.
Motivation is not the shortfall of 7 foot forward and **** pogo stick Jason Smith. He is all over the place like a he forgot his ritalin. Has become a fan favorite for that. Blocking shots, jumping for boards, keeping active. Better still, this year Coach Brooks encouraged him to shoot from range if left alone on the perimeter, and he discovered he was pretty good at it. This baffles defenses who see this goofy dude bounding around and dropping it in from outside. No you are not going to spend a ton of defensive capital game planning to stop Jason Smith. But hey so far that's to our benefit. Where is is vulnerable and will not be a frontline player: he jumps at every pump fake trying to block everything. So he will foul, and foul and foul. But as a back up that's not a bad trait. Foul the bejeezeus out of them JSmit. Its fine, just don't let them score for free.
Pretty much everyone else is some degree of expendable.
Our owner has said he would only pay the lux tax of we were a real champion contender. But I dont see we are there yet. YES NO DOUBT if Durant got a ring and wanted to play back at home we would pay the heck outta any luxury tax. But he won't, doesnt want to, so no.
We dont have the room for him anyway, can't sign and trade Otto to make the room, for him, or for John Wall's best friend Boogie Cousins, we just cant easily make room this year. Really with Otto likely to get a sizeable contract we are looking at keeping the guys mentioned above and filling in the rest with whomever we already have under contract plus minimum players, maybe a decent MLE guy. Unless you can convince other owners that our talents are worth a package. That Cousins is too much of a headache and no great fit in NOLA, or that KD is equivalent to Beal alone or something. I just dont see you selling it.
No there is no rift between Wall and Beal. They sit together on the team plane, are out together often. The quote was misconstrued. Wall is blunt and more of a straight shooter than most players in any league, more honest than politic, and most often exactly right in his analysis. Tough to tell because he speaks in that high speed monotone drawl (never heard a southern drawl spoken that fast) but every coach he's had says he was the smartest player they have ever worked with. He said essentially ON THE COURT he and Beal sometimes didnt get long since they both wanted to take the shot, but as PG it was his job to iron that out, and figure out how they work best together. Then, as evidenced by the numbers he went ahead and did that very thing. Brad to his credit worked along with him. Now they are inarguably the best backcourt in the East, and in the discussion of best in the league. And only likely to get better.
Remember, John Wall attends women's basketball games and breaks down their film; this guy has nothing he likes to do more than watch basketball and think about basketball. As the game has begun to slow down for him he is adding new wrinkles to his game. He's had a career year this season but according to players who would know he's only going to get better.
Its not possible to replace either player easily but this team could stand to have a reliable uptempo combo guard who could back up either one. The pre injury Brandon Jennings would have been fine.
That's the basics of the squad. The rest is just details. Yeah it would be great to have a young two way talented Big who could run with our team. I'd love to pull Richaun Holmes away from the 6ers. But we have no great assets in trade right now. None that we want to trade, none that we would get fair value for, none that is worth more in return on investment than the value they have on this team.
BUt if you want fluff prose and stats demonstrating that Otto Porter is a league MVP candidate and one of the most highly efficient players in the history of nerdy analysis, or if you want footage and clips showing Kelly Oubre embarrassing LeBJ -- then we can probably supply with that, so you can make lopsided trades. They just likely wont come close in real life. For a while. Until Scotty Brooks can do for them what he clearly did for Westbrook and Ibaka: turn overlooked players into superstars. Because clearly that is all the result of Brooks' tutelage. No?
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