. I kept it strictly basketball and will do the same with Lonzo Ball, meaning I didn't really touch on the car stuff because, like Lavar with Lonzo, I doubt it's going to have much of an effect on his draft stock.Josh Jackson – University of Kansas (Fr.)
Age on Draft Day: 20 years, 4 months
Height: 6’ 8”
Wingspan: 6’ 9.75”
Standing Reach: 8’ 9.75”
Games Available Online:
Will update after posted
Other Content:
Josh Jackson scouting profile on DraftExpress
Josh Jackson vs SFs (courtesy of kennydorglas):
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Lakers Film Room Scouting Report on Josh Jackson:
Offense:
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Defense:
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Introduction
Josh Jackson is one of my favorite players from this draft because you very rarely see elite prospects play with the visible intensity and motor that Josh Jackson plays with. Jackson is all over the court for Kansas doing all the little things that separate the teams that win from the rest. He’s crashing the boards hard and racking up double-doubles despite playing out of position as an undersized Power Forward, he’s diving and jumping into the stands going after every loose ball in his range, he’s down in a defensive stance playing the passing lanes and protecting the rim, and he almost never takes a play off on either end. He was a consensus top 3 high school recruit that joined a program notorious for not featuring their freshmen in favor of upperclassmen, accepted a role as the 3rd offensive option/ball handler on offense behind Frank Mason and Devonte’ Graham and the glue guy on defense, was forced to play Power Forward as his primary position once the big man rotation started to dwindle, and he still excelled and almost always looked like the best player on the court despite all of that. Josh Jackson can be a guy that does everything on the court in the NBA with some polish. He can be a slasher at Small Forward with the versatility to play spot minutes at Shooting Guard and Power Forward, he can be an auxiliary playmaker without being a primary ball handler, he can lead the break with the ball and make the right play or be a target at the rim, and he can switch and defend 3-4 positions on the court at any time.
That’s not to say there aren’t questions and concerns about Jackson’s game. Although he shot well from 3 in college at 38% on the season and 43.5% through conference play, there are questions about just how “real” those percentages are because the volume isn’t great, his shooting form is questionable and inconsistent, and he’s a God-awful free throw shooter at 56.6% on the season and 58% through conference play. His frame is the smallest out of the top Forward prospects with average height and length for a Small Forward, although I project Isaac as more of a Power Forward and he’s only slightly smaller than Tatum. In addition, he didn’t see a lot of matchups with NBA Small Forwards, so although he did very well defending on the perimeter and in the post against college Power Forwards, we haven’t seen him play much defense against the caliber of athletes that he’ll go up against in the NBA with guys like Miles Bridges and Dillon Brooks being the closest thing to it that he’s gone up against. I also have questions on just how developed his offensive skillset is. I think he has a very good feel for the game and is a natural, unselfish passer, but his go-to moves on offense are fairly simple and he didn’t do a lot of attacking out of the triple threat because was usually getting the ball on the move. I don’t know if that’s necessarily a bad thing if he weren’t as fundamentally sound on offense because that’d mean there’s plenty of room for improvement despite him being so productive as a freshman, but I don’t think he’s developed the offensive repertoire that a guy like Jayson Tatum has yet.
Offensive Ability
A lot of Jackson’s production on offense comes out of transition and at the rim, with 81 of his 127 made shots at the rim being assisted or off put backs, and it’s a safe bet that a solid percentage of the remaining 46 made shots at the rim come from Jackson getting a steal and taking it coast to coast (wish I could find an exact number, but with 59 steals on the season it’s worth mentioning). Jackson’s role on offense was a lot of stretching zones vertically by hiding on the baseline and being a lob target over the top of the defense, playing in the high post to use his superior athleticism when big men must step up in the zone to guard him and playmaking skills when he draws multiple defenders out of their zones, and moving off the ball while Frank Mason and Devonte’ Graham handled the ball the bulk of the time. Jackson flashed the ability to break down defenders off the dribble at times, but in my opinion he didn’t see enough of the ball considering he was a huge athletic mismatch for most college Power Forwards to defend on the perimeter. He also showed some comfort handling the ball one-on-one against full court pressure at times this season, and although it’s not something he’ll be asked to handle a lot of in the NBA, it is a good sign that he’s comfortable with the ball in his hands and isn’t too rattled by tight defense. With some more development to his ball handling skills, he should be able to abuse his explosion and athleticism and become a very good slasher in the league, especially if he can develop his outside shot to the point where defenses aren’t comfortable with him having time and space to get a clean shot off. Despite isolation scoring being considered Tatum’s calling card, he only yielded .753 points per possession off the dribble on 77 attempts compared to Jackson at .726 pointers per possession on 62 attempts and Jonathan Isaac at .829 points per possession on only 41 possessions shooting off the dribble all season.
Although shooting is the big question going forward for Josh Jackson, it’s somewhat encouraging to see that his in-game shooting efficiencies aren’t too far off from his competition at Small Forward, as he shot 38.1 2PTJ% from mid-range and 37.8 3PT% from 3 on the season, compared to 39.4 2PTJ% and 34.2 3PT% for Tatum and 41 2PTJ% and 34.8 3PT% for Isaac. Obviously, the major knock on projecting him as an NBA 3-point shooter is his horrendous free throw percentage, sitting at an awe-inspiring 56.6% on the season, the exact same as Shaquille O’Neal his first season at LSU. Not good company to be in as far as free throw shooting, unless it’s a weird sign that he’s going to dominate the league like Shaq did. It’s not necessarily the death sentence for his outside shooting, as individually neither college 3PT% or FT% are particularly good indicators of NBA 3-point shooting, but players like Tatum and Isaac with much better FT% and slightly worse college 3PT% do project to be the better shooters according to statistical representations. If I had to guess why he’s such an awful free throw shooter, I’d say it’s because free throw shooting is very dependent on having consistent upper body shot mechanics, and Josh has a bad habit of not keeping a consistent release point on his shot where he occasionally shoots with more of an outward motion than upward and doesn’t get an optimal angle on the basket. He’ll need a lot of repetition and discipline to correct his shot and maintain consistent mechanics, and it might be tough to do a complete overhaul of his shot when he’s 20-years old and has likely been shooting like this for years. If I were coaching him, I would work more on quickening the motion between catching the ball and getting it to the shooting pocket because he can bring the ball out in front of him at times and significantly increase his release time, and get him to focus on a comfortable, repeatable release point. It doesn’t have to be perfect form for him, just consistent and quick enough to get off when contested. He’ll probably never be a knock down shooter in the NBA, but he just needs to be good enough that the defense can’t leave him alone, which I think teams would have trouble doing anyways because he crashes the offensive boards hard and is very good moving off the ball.
Passing
To me, Jackson’s passing ability is what really separates him from the rest of the Small Forward crop. It really says something about his passing when Bill Self says Jackson might be the best passer on the team that had this year’s NPOY playing Point Guard. It translated to the court pretty well, as Jackson’s assist rate is the highest in the lottery of any non-Point Guard with an AST% of 18.2, with Tatum and Issac posting 12.4% and 7.5%, respectively. Jackson flashed just about everything you want to see as a playmaker, whether it was on the money full court passes, one handed swing passes on the move to shooters on the opposite side of the court, pocket passes and lobs to the roll man on pick-and-rolls, finding shooters and cutters in transition, or dump offs off the drive to big men while evading defenders looking for charges. With some more polish on his ball handling skills to help cut down on turnovers, Jackson’s ability to get into the paint, draw in the defense, and find shooters on the perimeter will be very valuable, and if he can add a consistent jump shot to his game then the floor will only continue to open up. Jackson is a bit turnover prone off the pass, occasionally telegraphing cross court passes on the perimeter, tossing quick drop off passes to big men that don’t have the softest hand, and getting caught in the air without someone to pass to. With that said, his turnover rate wasn’t significantly higher than Isaac or Tatum, who had TOV% of 13.3% and 15.0% compared to Jackson’s 15.9% who don’t produce shots for others as well as Jackson does.
Ball Handling
While Jackson has shown some very good development with his ball handling, handling defensive pressure, and creating open looks for himself, he could use a bit more polish before he can maximize his athleticism as a slasher. His dribble can get a bit high at times and leave more space for help defenders to get a clean hand on his dribble. He has a solid foundation of dribble moves with a quick in-and-out dribble, a fluid crossover, and his behind the back dribble that he uses on the move to clear space and step back, but he’ll need to expand on that in the NBA because he can be a bit predictable. We didn’t get to see a ton of Jackson squaring up his defender and going one-on-one, as he got a lot of his work on offense coming off dribble hand-offs at the top of the key and attacking the paint, but he showed some ability to do that in the NCAA tournament against Michigan State and Miles Bridges, who was probably the best NBA talent that Jackson matched up with this year. I’d also like to see Jackson work more on his triple-threat and jab step game, because it wasn’t a consistent part of his offensive game at Kansas and I think he has the explosion to blow by defenders in the NBA if he learns to create the angles without putting down a dribble.
Defense
While there are questions about how versatile he’ll be with his unexciting length, I see Jackson being a high impact player on the defensive end. I think he has that lock down defender mentality and non-stop motor on defense to go with his elite athleticism. He is great at getting into the passing lanes and creating steals or making it difficult for the opposing team to swing the ball on the perimeter and run their offense, he’s a surprisingly natural rim protector for a 6’8” Small Forward/Power Forward, and he has a very fundamentally sound defensive stance with the athleticism to switch and stay in front of just about anyone in college basketball if he stays disciplined. Defensive discipline is one area where Jackson could stand to improve. While his positioning is solid, he can get caught ball watching on the weak side and lose his man on the perimeter leading to open shots, he’ll occasionally reach for steals on the perimeter and get beat to the paint, and he has the tendency to overcommit on help defense and completely leave his man. His athleticism helped him mitigate those issues because he covers ground quickly and is able to recover and contest in some way, but that’s not going to fly in the NBA where everyone can shoot, almost everyone is very athletic, and players know how to make you pay for losing them on defense. I think at worst he’ll be able to switch on every position on the perimeter, and with the Power Forward position trending towards being more perimeter-oriented I think he’ll be fine defending the majority of them.
Fit with the Phoenix Suns
In my opinion, the Suns picking Josh Jackson with either of Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball on the board means that they are committed to Eric Bledsoe running the point for the foreseeable future, and I don't see why he wouldn't be the best player available if we dropped to 3 and they were both gone. I think that Josh Jackson checks a lot of the boxes that the Phoenix Suns need filled with Bledsoe here. He can be the bulldog defender that they lost trading PJ Tucker, he can be the secondary/tertiary playmaker to Bledsoe and Booker and help bring the team out of the basement of passing teams in the NBA, and he has the athleticism to be successful in our up-tempo offense as a slasher and lob target in transition and in the half court. His shot needs a lot of work to become consistent, especially from the free throw line, which is something the Suns need, but it’s hard to see them knock Jackson on his shooting ability when his competition at Small Forward, TJ Warren and Derrick Jones Jr., are both bad outside shooters and aren't the playmakers Jackson is. I could see the Suns being wowed by the rest of his game and athleticism and taking the risk on adjusting his shooting form to where he’s still comfortable but more consistent on his mechanics like they are with Jones Jr..
Conclusion
I’m a pretty big fan of Josh Jackson’s game, I think at the very least he’ll be a good 2-way glue guy that is successful as a slasher, scores off the ball, and puts up 4 or 5 assists a game, with the ceiling of being an elite player on both ends if he can develop his outside jump shot to at least be a consistent spot up shooter and get out of the Shaq tier of free throw shooting. I see his floor being relatively safe because of his athleticism, feel for the game, and ability to be a positive impact player on the defensive end. Tough defenders typically find a way to stick around and contribute in the league. While his shot is concerning, I think the upside the comes with his basketball IQ, athleticism, defensive impact, and unselfish passing is more than enough to be successful even if he never becomes an above-average shooter.
Next Prospect: Lonzo Ball
After Lonzo Ball, I'll take a couple requests if anyone wants to see one for someone I haven't done, but I'm not going to make promises on doing a bunch of them lol. Hope everyone enjoys this one, feel free to tell me how wrong you think I am because I'm not perfect and if there's anyone I'd have rose-colored homer shades on it'd be Josh Jackson
