OKC Thunder Offseason 2017: The Reshapening

[bondom34]

I just looked at the per 36 numbers and Kilpatrick averaged more points, rebounds, and assists than oladipo on better efficiency with only a 2% higher usage... 22 million vs 1 million.

Not saying it's the be all end all, but RPM:
Dipo: 7th SG
Kilpatrick: 74th
If they want someone for nothing, just get Belli from Charlotte.

I'm going to keep saying it until I'm blue in the face: RPM was never intended to be used in this way. It purely estimates expected player value going forward in a player's current role with a similar team and style. There are obvious reasons oladipo is in a better position to succeed (namely Russ and Robes).

That's not to say Kilpatrick is obviously better than oladipo though, I'm just saying that there are a plethora of guys that could give you similar production to oladipo for much cheaper than the 20+ million he's going to make. I believe the only way we'll ever be successful long term is by subscribing to a moneyball style philosophy, we HAVE to find players that are undervalued (either due to oversight or due to the rookie scale) and only spend big money on true difference makers. Right now we're doing exactly the opposite and relying on guys that are overvalued relative to on court production.

45 million dollars is getting us a combined average of 27.2/12/3.7. So basically next year we're getting demarcus cousins value and paying an extra 20 million for it. And that's without touching Kanter's contract.

I'm not even saying you have to use it that way. But Kilpatrick's not good. Not even close to it. He's 27, won't give Vic's production, and the only fascination with him seems to be that he's someone different.

I know Vic wasn't always great, but the grass isn't always greener. And here it's not only less green, it's yellow and burned because the dog peed on it.

[spearsy23]

Not saying it's the be all end all, but RPM:
Dipo: 7th SG
Kilpatrick: 74th
If they want someone for nothing, just get Belli from Charlotte.

I'm going to keep saying it until I'm blue in the face: RPM was never intended to be used in this way. It purely estimates expected player value going forward in a player's current role with a similar team and style. There are obvious reasons oladipo is in a better position to succeed (namely Russ and Robes).

That's not to say Kilpatrick is obviously better than oladipo though, I'm just saying that there are a plethora of guys that could give you similar production to oladipo for much cheaper than the 20+ million he's going to make. I believe the only way we'll ever be successful long term is by subscribing to a moneyball style philosophy, we HAVE to find players that are undervalued (either due to oversight or due to the rookie scale) and only spend big money on true difference makers. Right now we're doing exactly the opposite and relying on guys that are overvalued relative to on court production.

45 million dollars is getting us a combined average of 27.2/12/3.7. So basically next year we're getting demarcus cousins value and paying an extra 20 million for it. And that's without touching Kanter's contract.

I'm not even saying you have to use it that way. But Kilpatrick's not good. Not even close to it. He's 27, won't give Vic's production, and the only fascination with him seems to be that he's someone different.

I know Vic wasn't always great, but the grass isn't always greener. And here it's not only less green, it's yellow and burned because the dog peed on it.

The only way that's true is if you believe rpm is the only thing in existence that truly measures a player's production.

[bondom34]

I'm going to keep saying it until I'm blue in the face: RPM was never intended to be used in this way. It purely estimates expected player value going forward in a player's current role with a similar team and style. There are obvious reasons oladipo is in a better position to succeed (namely Russ and Robes).

That's not to say Kilpatrick is obviously better than oladipo though, I'm just saying that there are a plethora of guys that could give you similar production to oladipo for much cheaper than the 20+ million he's going to make. I believe the only way we'll ever be successful long term is by subscribing to a moneyball style philosophy, we HAVE to find players that are undervalued (either due to oversight or due to the rookie scale) and only spend big money on true difference makers. Right now we're doing exactly the opposite and relying on guys that are overvalued relative to on court production.

45 million dollars is getting us a combined average of 27.2/12/3.7. So basically next year we're getting demarcus cousins value and paying an extra 20 million for it. And that's without touching Kanter's contract.

I'm not even saying you have to use it that way. But Kilpatrick's not good. Not even close to it. He's 27, won't give Vic's production, and the only fascination with him seems to be that he's someone different.

I know Vic wasn't always great, but the grass isn't always greener. And here it's not only less green, it's yellow and burned because the dog peed on it.

The only way that's true is if you believe rpm is the only thing in existence that truly measures a player's production.

Nope, but I'd use more than a slash line that was all that was given by anyone else.

[spearsy23]

I'm not even saying you have to use it that way. But Kilpatrick's not good. Not even close to it. He's 27, won't give Vic's production, and the only fascination with him seems to be that he's someone different.

I know Vic wasn't always great, but the grass isn't always greener. And here it's not only less green, it's yellow and burned because the dog peed on it.

The only way that's true is if you believe rpm is the only thing in existence that truly measures a player's production.

Nope, but I'd use more than a slash line that was all that was given by anyone else.

The numbers are on ball reference. You can go look them up if you want. But when you're claiming a guy sucks and won't come close to the production of another player I think it's pretty relevant when the two guys' box stats and efficiency are pretty much identical (and slightly favoring the guy that 'sucks').

Who is better cody zeller or Steven Adams?

[bondom34]

The only way that's true is if you believe rpm is the only thing in existence that truly measures a player's production.

Nope, but I'd use more than a slash line that was all that was given by anyone else.

The numbers are on ball reference. You can go look them up if you want. But when you're claiming a guy sucks and won't come close to the production of another player I think it's pretty relevant when the two guys' box stats and efficiency are pretty much identical (and slightly favoring the guy that 'sucks').

Who is better cody zeller or Steven Adams?

I'd take Zeller now.

But there's also context. There's a reason SK got nothing but 10 days, was cut from the Wolves and Nuggets, and is only getting playing time on a 20 win team.

[spearsy23]

Nope, but I'd use more than a slash line that was all that was given by anyone else.

The numbers are on ball reference. You can go look them up if you want. But when you're claiming a guy sucks and won't come close to the production of another player I think it's pretty relevant when the two guys' box stats and efficiency are pretty much identical (and slightly favoring the guy that 'sucks').

Who is better cody zeller or Steven Adams?

I'd take Zeller now.

But there's also context. There's a reason SK got nothing but 10 days, was cut from the Wolves and Nuggets, and is only getting playing time on a 20 win team.

Yeah, just like there's a reason Lin/Whiteside were cut by 100 teams, Robert covington was waived and picked up by a 20 win team, draymond went in the second round, etc. Teams miss on guys, and often the difference between a rotation player and a d-league guy is opportunity.

The most important thing is perception, Oladipo played on 20 win teams until he got to play beside Russ, he put up numbers pretty similar to sk on those teams, but because of what he was perceived as before the draft that's hand waved away.

If Oladipo was making 15 million dollars then this isn't even a conversation, but for 20 million dollars less Kilpatrick is giving you comparable production in EVERY conceivable stat except RPM. How important is rpm? Because the way you're using it now says Chris Paul should've been your MVP choice.

[bondom34]

Yeah, just like there's a reason Lin/Whiteside were cut by 100 teams, Robert covington was waived and picked up by a 20 win team, draymond went in the second round, etc. Teams miss on guys, and often the difference between a rotation player and a d-league guy is opportunity.

The most important thing is perception, Oladipo played on 20 win teams until he got to play beside Russ, he put up numbers pretty similar to sk on those teams, but because of what he was perceived as before the draft that's hand waved away.

If Oladipo was making 15 million dollars then this isn't even a conversation, but for 20 million dollars less Kilpatrick is giving you comparable production in EVERY conceivable stat except RPM. How important is rpm? Because the way you're using it now says Chris Paul should've been your MVP choice.

I'm not. I'm using it as a measure that's better than a slash line. He's 27, not going to improve, and advanced numbers are worse basically across the board.

http://bkref.com/tiny/T12XW

He's a worse 3 point shooter, played fewer minutes (again on a 20 win team), worse defense, more turnovers, barely more assists, and just at a real quick glance his on/off numbers are even bad. There's literally nothing saying he'd give close to VO's production unless you're just blindly using a slash line and in that case screw it trade for Jamal Crawford.

[Andre Roberstan]

Signings:

PG: Shaun Livingston
SG: J.J. Reddick (if we cannot get Livingston, we moved Oladipo to PG and have Reddick take the 2)
PF: James Johnson

That's what I'm realistically hoping for.

Westbrook/Livingston/Oladipo
Oladipo/Livingston/Abrines
Roberson/McDermott
Gibson/Johnson
Adams/Kanter

Are they all signing for the veteran's minimum?

[bondom34]

Just a note, and small sample, but Adams defensive numbers were excellent in the Houston series.

[spearsy23]

Yeah, just like there's a reason Lin/Whiteside were cut by 100 teams, Robert covington was waived and picked up by a 20 win team, draymond went in the second round, etc. Teams miss on guys, and often the difference between a rotation player and a d-league guy is opportunity.

The most important thing is perception, Oladipo played on 20 win teams until he got to play beside Russ, he put up numbers pretty similar to sk on those teams, but because of what he was perceived as before the draft that's hand waved away.

If Oladipo was making 15 million dollars then this isn't even a conversation, but for 20 million dollars less Kilpatrick is giving you comparable production in EVERY conceivable stat except RPM. How important is rpm? Because the way you're using it now says Chris Paul should've been your MVP choice.

I'm not. I'm using it as a measure that's better than a slash line. He's 27, not going to improve, and advanced numbers are worse basically across the board.

http://bkref.com/tiny/T12XW

If by advanced numbers you mean numbers that are dependent on team success then yes, his advanced numbers are all worse. But that seems kinda worthless when one guy played with Russ and the other had Brooke Lopez.

He's a worse 3 point shooter,

By 2% without the benefit of Russ. I'd say that's comparable.

played fewer minutes (again on a 20 win team),

This says nothing about how good a player is. There are a ton of reasons minutes could fluctuate, better backup/ tanking/ injury/ etc. But I believe he could maintain his production for an extra 7 minutes, do you disagree?

worse defense,

Definitely

more turnovers, barely more assists,

Again seems comparable

and just at a real quick glance his on/off numbers are even bad.

I believe they're -.1? Is it his fault he didn't get to start alongside Russ all year?

There's literally nothing saying he'd give close to VO's production unless you're just blindly using a slash line and in that case screw it trade for Jamal Crawford.

Don't be an idiot. Crawford has clear efficiency issues, is possibly the worst defender in the league, and is making 12 million dollars per year at 37. Kilpatrick is entering his prime, is more efficient than vic, and making 1 million dollars.


He's extremely close in scoring, rebounding, passing, and efficieny, and actually has an argument over oladipo in each one. He's not close to as good defensively, no question about that, but that doesn't change that they're providing comparable production. You realize oladipo can be better and it still be 'comparable' correct? you're arguing that he's on a bad team so he's a bad player. That's not how it works. In fact, most guys that aren't ball dominant play better on good teams with better players to take the pressure off.

So here's my question, what does oladipo provide that Kilpatrick doesn't? The answer is defense. They shoot close to the same from three (vic better), they score on about the same efficiency (Kilpatrick better), they create for others about the same (push? Slight advantage vic maybe?), they rebound similarly (advantage Kilpatrick). So is Oladipo's defense worth an extra 20 million dollars? No. Don't get me wrong, in a vacuum you take vic every time, but he's not giving you anywhere near 20 million dollars worth of production and that's without even mentioning his playoffs.

Also, Vic is 25 and had yet to show significant improvement in his NBA career, so we can stop pretending he's still a prospect.

[bondom34]

Yeah, just like there's a reason Lin/Whiteside were cut by 100 teams, Robert covington was waived and picked up by a 20 win team, draymond went in the second round, etc. Teams miss on guys, and often the difference between a rotation player and a d-league guy is opportunity.

The most important thing is perception, Oladipo played on 20 win teams until he got to play beside Russ, he put up numbers pretty similar to sk on those teams, but because of what he was perceived as before the draft that's hand waved away.

If Oladipo was making 15 million dollars then this isn't even a conversation, but for 20 million dollars less Kilpatrick is giving you comparable production in EVERY conceivable stat except RPM. How important is rpm? Because the way you're using it now says Chris Paul should've been your MVP choice.

I'm not. I'm using it as a measure that's better than a slash line. He's 27, not going to improve, and advanced numbers are worse basically across the board.

http://bkref.com/tiny/T12XW

If by advanced numbers you mean numbers that are dependent on team success then yes, his advanced numbers are all worse. But that seems kinda worthless when one guy played with Russ and the other had Brooke Lopez.

He's a worse 3 point shooter,

By 2% without the benefit of Russ. I'd say that's comparable.

played fewer minutes (again on a 20 win team),

This says nothing about how good a player is. There are a ton of reasons minutes could fluctuate, better backup/ tanking/ injury/ etc. But I believe he could maintain his production for an extra 7 minutes, do you disagree?

worse defense,

Definitely

more turnovers, barely more assists,

Again seems comparable

and just at a real quick glance his on/off numbers are even bad.

I believe they're -.1? Is it his fault he didn't get to start alongside Russ all year?

There's literally nothing saying he'd give close to VO's production unless you're just blindly using a slash line and in that case screw it trade for Jamal Crawford.

Don't be an idiot. Crawford has clear efficiency issues, is possibly the worst defender in the league, and is making 12 million dollars per year at 37. Kilpatrick is entering his prime, is more efficient than vic, and making 1 million dollars.


He's extremely close in scoring, rebounding, passing, and efficieny, and actually has an argument over oladipo in each one. He's not close to as good defensively, no question about that, but that doesn't change that they're providing comparable production. You realize oladipo can be better and it still be 'comparable' correct? you're arguing that he's on a bad team so he's a bad player. That's not how it works. In fact, most guys that aren't ball dominant play better on good teams with better players to take the pressure off.

So here's my question, what does oladipo provide that Kilpatrick doesn't? The answer is defense. They shoot close to the same from three (vic better), they score on about the same efficiency (Kilpatrick better), they create for others about the same (push? Slight advantage vic maybe?), they rebound similarly (advantage Kilpatrick). So is Oladipo's defense worth an extra 20 million dollars? No. Don't get me wrong, in a vacuum you take vic every time, but he's not giving you anywhere near 20 million dollars worth of production and that's without even mentioning his playoffs.

Also, Vic is 25 and had yet to show significant improvement in his NBA career, so we can stop pretending he's still a prospect.

Vic's a better playmaker and has shown an ability to be somewhat featured on a team. Let me ask this, if Kilpatrick is this good, why are Nets fans willing to take a late 2nd for him?

Also, the Nets are worse w/ him on than off court. Which is bad for the Nets.

[ThunderBolt]

Kilpatrick makes $1 million. Kyle Singler makes $5 million. Kilpatrick is pocket change. Is there really any harm in trying to get the guy? Seems pretty low risk to me. If we are relying on second round picks to build around Russ, we're screwed. Seems like some of the arguments against kilpatrick are similar to the ones I heard against Lou Williams. If we made no changes to our starting 5 but had a great second unit, we would be way better.

[Old Man Game]

This guy gets it:

http://www.sbnation.com/2017/4/26/15432330/russell-westbrook-highlights-stats-thunder-season-mvp-legendary

[slick_watts]

russell westbrook would never do it. but he should be trying to recruit blake griffin. the slim chance that blake could be convinced to 'come home' (especially in the wake of kd walking) would be one of the few ways i envision a path to contention taking shape during westbrook's prime. it's a lot easier to get one star than it is to get two, after all.

this team could feasibly get to maybe 2017 rockets level if the supporting cast was overhauled. there's just so many bad players in our rotation. rockets didn't play one guy who's not average or better. jerami grant, semaj christon, norris cole, alex abrines, domantas sabonis, doug mcdermott? all well below that. maybe a couple of those guys make strides, but the odds that all or even most of them get to even neutral on the court are slim to none imo. and if we want to get into that 5-6 SRS range and kinda pretend like houston we can contend, we can't afford to play bad players.

my expectation is that sam presti will sign westbrook to the DPE extension early this summer and it will be put on an altar and celebrated just like his one year extension was. and that may buy him some time to keep his job through westbrook's prime years. the cupboard is otherwise close to bare, and even if gsw weren't around getting this roster to contention status would be difficult.

[slick_watts]

i don't feel the same way a lot do about oladipo. i'm high on him. rpm had him 5th among sg last year and 7th this year. the sample size is getting larger and it's difficult to ignore. it's also difficult to ignore his boxscore career lows this season, but it's fair to say that such things would not highlight what the apm metrics suggest oladipo is performing so well at: defense. we had a top ten defense this year despite playing kanter and semaj and lauvergne and morrow and mcdermott a lot, despite russell westbrook not caring on that end, losing serge and kd, etc.

oladipo is definitely NOT someone who can turn a bench of garbage players into a productive unit. so he's not james harden. surprise of the century. but he was pretty damn productive with westbrook on the court. maybe if we had a real backup pg at any point in time during the season he'd have fared better in the other minutes.

[Kizz Fastfists]

Russ reportedly tried to recruit Horford last off-season. I don't know how Russ feels about playing with Blake. Russ also tried to recruit Pau Gasol when Gasol signed with Chicago for 3x the money OKC could offer.

[slick_watts]

Russ reportedly tried to recruit Horford last off-season. I don't know how Russ feels about playing with Blake. Russ also tried to recruit Pau Gasol when Gasol signed with Chicago for 3x the money OKC could offer.

the whole horford thing seemed murky to me and the idea that the worldly and well-traveled pau gasol would come to okc for the tax mle never seemed realistic. russ could recruit blake with the understanding that he's signing an extension and they can play together thru their respective primes and maybe find a way to get a third guy into the fold together. blake being from oklahoma would be the only thing i could possibly think of that could push us ahead of other teams on a star's destination list; so it seems at least plausible to me. but probably not likely.

[ThunderBolt]

I'm curious how much Pao is enjoying the San Antonio ballet and orchestra.

[Old Man Game]

russell westbrook would never do it. but he should be trying to recruit blake griffin. the slim chance that blake could be convinced to 'come home' (especially in the wake of kd walking) would be one of the few ways i envision a path to contention taking shape during westbrook's prime. it's a lot easier to get one star than it is to get two, after all.

this team could feasibly get to maybe 2017 rockets level if the supporting cast was overhauled. there's just so many bad players in our rotation. rockets didn't play one guy who's not average or better. jerami grant, semaj christon, norris cole, alex abrines, domantas sabonis, doug mcdermott? all well below that. maybe a couple of those guys make strides, but the odds that all or even most of them get to even neutral on the court are slim to none imo. and if we want to get into that 5-6 SRS range and kinda pretend like houston we can contend, we can't afford to play bad players.

my expectation is that sam presti will sign westbrook to the DPE extension early this summer and it will be put on an altar and celebrated just like his one year extension was. and that may buy him some time to keep his job through westbrook's prime years. the cupboard is otherwise close to bare, and even if gsw weren't around getting this roster to contention status would be difficult.

It all goes back to mortgaging the future on the deals that brought in Kanter and then Dion. Trading those picks for those sort of "pieces" was a big waste.

[Kizz Fastfists]

It all goes back to mortgaging the future on the deals that brought in Kanter and then Dion. Trading those picks for those sort of "pieces" was a big waste.

I never liked the Waiters deal. The Kanter deal made sense. Kanter was the type of player that should have become an impact player for the Thunder. He just refuses to play defense. If they finish off GS last year and then beat Cleveland then it doesn't matter. Presti was taking a shot at a championship and while I didn't like some of the moves I at least understood what he was trying to accomplish. It isn't like you were expecting to get anything better from picks in the 20s. Who would they have picked in the 20s last year? Who would they pick in the 20s in 2018? Those picks didn't change anything for this season and if you base it on the expected player those picks get you those players were unlikely to ever be significant contributors.