Trade Post-Mortem 2017: Eight is Enough

[Slartibartfast]

Playoff Horford has been a major, major upgrade from playoff Sully.

Not gonna get into IT vs Teague but we obviously disagree about that one too

Offensively Horford has been great. But we are noticeably worse defensively. Not really a Sully thing (he was too fat to defend by the end of the season) as much as an Amir decline thing, but the point is we're not really better than last year, just healthier with weaker, unhealthier opponents.

Put us up against last year's Hawks and are we favorites? I don't think so.

Last year's playoffs minute totals:
1. IT 220
2. Turner 214
3. Crowder 197
4. Smart 193
5. Jerebko 162
6. Amir 134
7. Rozier 99
8. Sully 81
9. Hunter 41
10. Zeller 38

Minute Totals from Bulls Series:
1. Bradley 216
2. IT 209
3. Horford 203
4. Crowder 203
5. Kelly 179
6. Smart 116
7. Gerald 89
8. Rozier 88
9. Jerebko 53
10. Amir 33

Bradley, Horford and KO did not make top 10 in minutes played last year. First round this year they played 598 minutes and were 3 of our top 5 players in mpg. Last year Turner, Jerebko and Amir combined for 510 minutes and were 3 of our top 6 players in mpg. The upgrade at the top of our rotation from last year to this year is huge. And we still won 2 games last year. So agree to disagree that we wouldn't beat last year's Hawk's.

Amir was actually good though last year. And Jerebko too. We were a really good defensive team. We just had no punch offensively with AB gone and Sully sucking.

I think people overrate this year's squad because of the offensive numbers, but maybe they just underrate how good we were defensively last year.

[24istheLAW]

Amir was actually good though last year. And Jerebko too. We were a really good defensive team. We just had no punch offensively with AB gone and Sully sucking.

I think people overrate this year's squad because of the offensive numbers, but maybe they just underrate how good we were defensively last year.

Totally agree.

Turner (who fit really well on this team at both ends), Jerebko (who was hitting his shots and playing tough D), and Amir (who was much better) have been replaced by rookies and green young guys.

Because of universal RealGM tendency to assume that young players are the solution and unheralded vets are the problem, the roster is assumed to be much improved. But I don't think it's the case. And the drop in defensive performance bears it out.

That said, I think that the Celts are a better playoff team this year.

The big difference to my eye has been that when IT is trapped and pressured, Horford has been there to get the ball and the amount of space there lets him pick out a cutter or shooter, or make something happen. Horford's role being seemingly bigger in the playoffs, and the increase in intensity with which IT is being defended, in the context of "playoff basketball", are related developments as far as I can tell. So I do think this team is more playoff-ready compared to the last edition than the aggregate measures like MOV/SRS would suggest.

[ConstableGeneva]

Our MOV/SRS would've improved if key guys didn't miss about a thousand games total between them. Celtics were fortunate, health-wise, during the previous regular season. While Cs still finished near the top of opponent effective FG%, I'd agree though that defensively, we saw a regression this season. Several factors played into that including injuries, youth, and guys focusing more on offense (AB, Jae). Offensively, it was apparent that we could now do things on offense with Horford compared to when Sully was holding that spot. One could argue we weren't able to maximize Al's potential during the regular season. Him regularly rolling to the basket and/or faciliating from the top of the key instead of the post are a sight for sore eyes.

[ddb]

Melo/OQ to LAC for Jordan/Crawford works and could make a lot of sense for both teams.

Why for LAC: They need to shake things up, but they also need to sell tickets. Keep CP3 & Blake. Let Redick walk. bring in Anthony & OQ.... play smaller, play quicker. It still won't be enough in the West, but it's an attempt to make things better.

Why for NYK: Jordan is the younger player. He's an All-Star/DPOY candidate each year. Would give them a really interesting front court with DJ/KP and WH off the bench. Crawford goes back to NY and gives them bench scoring...they can play more free and won't have to worry about the hero ball that Melo loves to play. Develop the #7 pick and continue to build through FA and the draft. Big takeaway is getting out of the Melo ordeal and moving on

[165bows]

Offensively Horford has been great. But we are noticeably worse defensively. Not really a Sully thing (he was too fat to defend by the end of the season) as much as an Amir decline thing, but the point is we're not really better than last year, just healthier with weaker, unhealthier opponents.

Put us up against last year's Hawks and are we favorites? I don't think so.

Last year's playoffs minute totals:
1. IT 220
2. Turner 214
3. Crowder 197
4. Smart 193
5. Jerebko 162
6. Amir 134
7. Rozier 99
8. Sully 81
9. Hunter 41
10. Zeller 38

Minute Totals from Bulls Series:
1. Bradley 216
2. IT 209
3. Horford 203
4. Crowder 203
5. Kelly 179
6. Smart 116
7. Gerald 89
8. Rozier 88
9. Jerebko 53
10. Amir 33

Bradley, Horford and KO did not make top 10 in minutes played last year. First round this year they played 598 minutes and were 3 of our top 5 players in mpg. Last year Turner, Jerebko and Amir combined for 510 minutes and were 3 of our top 6 players in mpg. The upgrade at the top of our rotation from last year to this year is huge. And we still won 2 games last year. So agree to disagree that we wouldn't beat last year's Hawk's.

Amir was actually good though last year. And Jerebko too. We were a really good defensive team. We just had no punch offensively with AB gone and Sully sucking.

I think people overrate this year's squad because of the offensive numbers, but maybe they just underrate how good we were defensively last year.

That's been the biggest disappointment this year, the defense on the whole has just not been there compared with last year.

[London2Boston]

Read on Twitter

Well, we have a Plan Z.

[ddb]

Read on Twitter

Well, we have a Plan Z.

more like a Plan "now I know my ABC's, next time won't you sing with me"

[The_Ghost_of_JB]

Well Howard does solve the rebounding issue but that contract is an issue. Regardless he seems to wreak havoc no matter where he goes and Atlanta doesn't seem to be any different.

[TheOGJabroni]

I don't think Ainge showed any interest in Howard last offseason, cannot see that changing now.

[Gomes3PC]

If the C's weren't willing to entertain bringing in Cousins, why would they entertain an old, broken down Howard?

[TheOGJabroni]

This is obviously a complete hypothetical, never gonna happen but on the PC board someone asked what the best package your favorite team would offer for Green.

I'm curious, would you trade our BK pick for him? I don't like the guy but he may be a near perfect fit for us.

[Valid]

This is obviously a complete hypothetical, never gonna happen but on the PC board someone asked what the best package your favorite team would offer for Green.

I'm curious, would you trade our BK pick for him? I don't like the guy but he may be a near perfect fit for us.

Draymond is awesome, but I also think he fits perfectly in Golden State and is worth much more to them than he would be for us. I would not trade our Brooklyn pick for him this year. As far as next year's Brooklyn pick? Maybe, but I still have my reservations about how he would perform on another team.

[ConstableGeneva]

This is obviously a complete hypothetical, never gonna happen but on the PC board someone asked what the best package your favorite team would offer for Green.

I'm curious, would you trade our BK pick for him? I don't like the guy but he may be a near perfect fit for us.

Draymond is awesome, but I also think he fits perfectly in Golden State and is worth much more to them than he would be for us. I would not trade our Brooklyn pick for him this year. As far as next year's Brooklyn pick? Maybe, but I still have my reservations about how he would perform on another team.

Considering Warriors and Celtics play a fairly similar style on offense, I would say Green would fit like a glove on this team. Replace Amir with one of the best passing bigs to play alongside Horford? Yes please. On the other end, he's among the best defenders at his position and is exactly the guy this team needs to cover for IT's deficiencies on that end. He can switch on wings/guards and recover to protect the rim. He's a fierce competitor to the point of being a douchebag. He's on a very reasonable contract too that aligns with Horford's end-date (bar the PO year). No doubt I'd trade the BKN 18 for him. On top of all that, he fits the guy with a chip on his shoulder mold -- Smart, IT, Crowder -- the Cs are known for.

Straight up fantasy though. Dubs aren't giving him up.

EDIT: We'd still need another wing scorer regardless but Draymond would patch the few glaring holes on this team.

[Valid]

This is obviously a complete hypothetical, never gonna happen but on the PC board someone asked what the best package your favorite team would offer for Green.

I'm curious, would you trade our BK pick for him? I don't like the guy but he may be a near perfect fit for us.

Draymond is awesome, but I also think he fits perfectly in Golden State and is worth much more to them than he would be for us. I would not trade our Brooklyn pick for him this year. As far as next year's Brooklyn pick? Maybe, but I still have my reservations about how he would perform on another team.

Considering Warriors and Celtics play a fairly similar style on offense, I would say Green would fit like a glove on this team. Replace Amir with one of the best passing bigs to play alongside Horford? Yes please. On the other end, he's among the best defenders at his position and is exactly the guy this team needs to cover for IT's deficiencies on that end. He can switch on wings/guards and recover to protect the rim. He's a fierce competitor to the point of being a douchebag. He's on a very reasonable contract too that aligns with Horford's end-date (bar the PO year). No doubt I'd trade the BKN 18 for him. On top of all that, he fits the guy with a chip on his shoulder mold -- Smart, IT, Crowder -- the Cs are known for.

Straight up fantasy though. Dubs aren't giving him up.

EDIT: We'd still need another wing scorer regardless but Draymond would patch the few glaring holes on this team.

We definitely play a similar style of offense, but we just don't have the pieces that Golden State does. I feel like if Green were on a team with less talent around him, you would see his warts. He's still a terrific player, but I think he is more of a complementary guy than a bona fide star.

But yeah. The Warriors aren't moving Dray, so this is moot anyway.

[ConstableGeneva]

Draymond is awesome, but I also think he fits perfectly in Golden State and is worth much more to them than he would be for us. I would not trade our Brooklyn pick for him this year. As far as next year's Brooklyn pick? Maybe, but I still have my reservations about how he would perform on another team.

Considering Warriors and Celtics play a fairly similar style on offense, I would say Green would fit like a glove on this team. Replace Amir with one of the best passing bigs to play alongside Horford? Yes please. On the other end, he's among the best defenders at his position and is exactly the guy this team needs to cover for IT's deficiencies on that end. He can switch on wings/guards and recover to protect the rim. He's a fierce competitor to the point of being a douchebag. He's on a very reasonable contract too that aligns with Horford's end-date (bar the PO year). No doubt I'd trade the BKN 18 for him. On top of all that, he fits the guy with a chip on his shoulder mold -- Smart, IT, Crowder -- the Cs are known for.

Straight up fantasy though. Dubs aren't giving him up.

EDIT: We'd still need another wing scorer regardless but Draymond would patch the few glaring holes on this team.

We definitely play a similar style of offense, but we just don't have the pieces that Golden State does. I feel like if Green were on a team with less talent around him, you would see his warts. He's still a terrific player, but I think he is more of a complementary guy than a bona fide star.

But yeah. The Warriors aren't moving Dray, so this is moot anyway.

I won't argue the semantics but even if he's not a bona fide star in his own right, he does a lot of things on an above average to elite level. If the goal is to contend soon, I'd take him on the team vs. the Jamychal Greens or unproven rookies with upside. In the unlikely scenario the Cs sign Hayward or trade for PG, Draymond would be the clinching move to get us over the hump imo.

But like you said...

Spoiler:

[Valid]

Considering Warriors and Celtics play a fairly similar style on offense, I would say Green would fit like a glove on this team. Replace Amir with one of the best passing bigs to play alongside Horford? Yes please. On the other end, he's among the best defenders at his position and is exactly the guy this team needs to cover for IT's deficiencies on that end. He can switch on wings/guards and recover to protect the rim. He's a fierce competitor to the point of being a douchebag. He's on a very reasonable contract too that aligns with Horford's end-date (bar the PO year). No doubt I'd trade the BKN 18 for him. On top of all that, he fits the guy with a chip on his shoulder mold -- Smart, IT, Crowder -- the Cs are known for.

Straight up fantasy though. Dubs aren't giving him up.

EDIT: We'd still need another wing scorer regardless but Draymond would patch the few glaring holes on this team.

We definitely play a similar style of offense, but we just don't have the pieces that Golden State does. I feel like if Green were on a team with less talent around him, you would see his warts. He's still a terrific player, but I think he is more of a complementary guy than a bona fide star.

But yeah. The Warriors aren't moving Dray, so this is moot anyway.

I won't argue the semantics but even if he's not a bona fide star in his own right, he does a lot of things on an above average to elite level. If the goal is to contend soon, I'd take him on the team vs. the Jamychal Greens or unproven rookies with upside. In the unlikely scenario the Cs sign Hayward or trade for PG, Draymond would be the clinching move to get us over the hump imo.

But like you said...

Spoiler:

Oh heck yeah. In a scenario where we also sign Hayward, I'd definitely do it. We probably wouldn't be able to trade for both Dray and PG, though. Not even Ainge has enough assets for that

[TheOGJabroni]

We definitely play a similar style of offense, but we just don't have the pieces that Golden State does. I feel like if Green were on a team with less talent around him, you would see his warts. He's still a terrific player, but I think he is more of a complementary guy than a bona fide star.

But yeah. The Warriors aren't moving Dray, so this is moot anyway.

I won't argue the semantics but even if he's not a bona fide star in his own right, he does a lot of things on an above average to elite level. If the goal is to contend soon, I'd take him on the team vs. the Jamychal Greens or unproven rookies with upside. In the unlikely scenario the Cs sign Hayward or trade for PG, Draymond would be the clinching move to get us over the hump imo.

But like you said...

Spoiler:

Oh heck yeah. In a scenario where we also sign Hayward, I'd definitely do it. We probably wouldn't be able to trade for both Dray and PG, though. Not even Ainge has enough assets for that

I just read through both of your talking points about it. Basically where I'm at. Golden St. would never do it but it's just the thread that I read it in that was more or less trying to get an idea of where other teams value him.

I think he'd fit perfectly and with a guy like Hayward at it, we'd be one of the favorites. If not, I think it would take us from where we are now to at least darkhorse contender. Not sure if I could part with that pick for that.

[Repeat 3-peat]

Bulls fan that comes in peace (Chi would've won in 5 if Rondo didn't go down)

What's the value for Avery Bradley? Assuming the Celtics land Fultz, or Ball, the guard position becomes deep.

Would the 16th pick be enough?

[BRUNiNHO91]

Bulls fan that comes in peace (Chi would've won in 5 if Rondo didn't go down)

What's the value for Avery Bradley? Assuming the Celtics land Fultz, or Ball, the guard position becomes deep.

Would the 16th pick be enough?

That might not even be enough for Terry Rozier.

[Repeat 3-peat]

Bulls fan that comes in peace (Chi would've won in 5 if Rondo didn't go down)

What's the value for Avery Bradley? Assuming the Celtics land Fultz, or Ball, the guard position becomes deep.

Would the 16th pick be enough?

That might not even be enough for Terry Rozier.

lol.

So what's his true value?