Internal development

jambalaya · Post #1 » by **jambalaya** » Wed May 10, 2017 2:35 am

http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9312&p=29717#p29717

After year 3 Thunder players on average start to decline. Modestly in year 4, bigger in year 5 then less or stable.

So if you are looking for internal development, expect it for real young guys but not the more experienced young guys like Adams, Kanter, Roberson and Oladipo.

Other metrics might have different patterns but this is where I started.

spearsy23 · Post #2 » by **spearsy23** » Wed May 10, 2017 3:44 am

jambalaya wrote:http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9312&p=29717#p29717

After year 3 Thunder players on average start to decline. Modestly in year 4, bigger in year 5 then less or stable.

So if you are looking for internal development, expect it for real young guys but not the more experienced young guys like Adams, Kanter, Roberson and Oladipo.

Other metrics might have different patterns but this is where I started.

I'll be interested to see what other metrics say, especially since win shares is dependent on team success so I'd expect the variance in wins/losses has a fairly large impact.

Post #3 » by **slick_watts** » Wed May 10, 2017 2:51 pm

win shares is just dean oliver individual ORTG and DRTG fit proportionally to possessions played and to fit into a team's win total no?

Post #4 » by **Andre Roberstan** » Wed May 10, 2017 3:10 pm

You hit any other teams yet? I feel like this is gonna need some context, as you noted on the APBR post.

jambalaya · Post #5 » by **jambalaya** » Wed May 10, 2017 7:55 pm

BR is weird right now so I can't get the data. When I do it will take an hour or two to manipulate per team. I intend to do at least one more.

BPM and RPM are "dependent on team success" too. PER isn't and sucks partly for that reason.

Slick, your description of Winshares is roughly right. Anyone can check the BR explanation of it if they want the exact derivation. If the site works on that page.

jambalaya · Post #6 » by **jambalaya** » Wed May 10, 2017 8:55 pm

BR problem reported and coincidentally or not fixed shortly thereafter.

I have the Spurs data. Probably will have done tonight. May do Hawks or another as well.

jambalaya · Post #7 » by **jambalaya** » Thu May 11, 2017 2:11 am

Another guy did Spurs before I was ready.

Thunder a bit better gains in year 2 &3, Spurs better in 4&5. Small changes after that.