Zach Collins

[Slartibartfast]

I like him more as a back up 4/5 in the 20s. I'd take a more diverse offensive player over him like TJ Leaf.

That's my point. We can discuss Leaf or Collins, I actually like Collins more (to those who think I'm hating on the guy), but top 10 to me is too high. Even lottery is too high.

Some franchises like the Kings, Hornets and Celtics love to draft these kind of prospects. I hoped they would've noticed the flaw in that strategy by now.

I'm not saying he can't outperform his length because it's possible, a la Al Horford. He has the athleticism, fluidity, passing and defensive instincts to do so. And if a team believes in him at the end of the lottery, I can see them taking him. It's just a bit riskier.

He has 4 inches of standing reach on Horford!

What's so risky about him?

He's 19, producing for a great team. Good standing reach for a 5. Great shot-blocking stats. Excellent rebounding numbers (though Zag bigs have significantly underperformed their college rebounding numbers in the pros). Great scoring and efficiency numbers with good versatility and strong indicators for his future range (good FT numbers in large sample, great 3-point numbers in tiny sample). Strong performance in some big games against good competition. Solid athleticism and lateral quickness suggesting good defensive potential as a PNR defender.

People want to stick to the white big guy comps, but those are still pretty favorable. If you give Cody Zeller 4 extra inches of standing reach to block more shots and more reliable range on his J, he would absolutely justify his #4 spot in the draft.

If you gave Kelly Olynyk 3 inches of standing reach and more athleticism/shot-blocking (and took away his handles) you'd have one of the better starting centers in the league.

If you gave Spencer Hawes or Frank Kaminsky some lateral quickness and explosiveness blocking shots they would have justified their lotto selection.

If you gave Meyers Leonard a motor and the willingness to play big, he would have justified his lotto selection.

The red flags around these other guys just aren't there with Collins.

He's much closer to Turner as a prospect only without the HS pedigree and questions surrounding his gait and knees.

[WalterBenjamin]

As mentioned his timing on defense is great. Lot of players can't think fast enough under the basket to really contest shoots in the NBA. I think Collins has a poise that will translate well in the NBA. You see constantly bigs geting beaten by euro steps and smart finishes. I think Collins understands shot bloking and rim protection enough to not be beaten by a lot of moves that some other centers eaven starters get regulary beaten.

[doordoor123]

That's my point. We can discuss Leaf or Collins, I actually like Collins more (to those who think I'm hating on the guy), but top 10 to me is too high. Even lottery is too high.

Some franchises like the Kings, Hornets and Celtics love to draft these kind of prospects. I hoped they would've noticed the flaw in that strategy by now.

I'm not saying he can't outperform his length because it's possible, a la Al Horford. He has the athleticism, fluidity, passing and defensive instincts to do so. And if a team believes in him at the end of the lottery, I can see them taking him. It's just a bit riskier.

He has 4 inches of standing reach on Horford!

What's so risky about him?

He's 19, producing for a great team. Good standing reach for a 5. Great shot-blocking stats. Excellent rebounding numbers (though Zag bigs have significantly underperformed their college rebounding numbers in the pros). Great scoring and efficiency numbers with good versatility and strong indicators for his future range (good FT numbers in large sample, great 3-point numbers in tiny sample). Strong performance in some big games against good competition. Solid athleticism and lateral quickness suggesting good defensive potential as a PNR defender.

People want to stick to the white big guy comps, but those are still pretty favorable. If you give Cody Zeller 4 extra inches of standing reach to block more shots and more reliable range on his J, he would absolutely justify his #4 spot in the draft.

If you gave Kelly Olynyk 3 inches of standing reach and more athleticism/shot-blocking (and took away his handles) you'd have one of the better starting centers in the league.

If you gave Spencer Hawes or Frank Kaminsky some lateral quickness and explosiveness blocking shots they would have justified their lotto selection.

If you gave Meyers Leonard a motor and the willingness to play big, he would have justified his lotto selection.

The red flags around these other guys just aren't there with Collins.

He's much closer to Turner as a prospect only without the HS pedigree and questions surrounding his gait and knees.

Turner has a great high post game, while Collins is more under the basket. He also has a 7'4 wingspan, can shoot over players. Collins also has a bit more post control and better defensive instincts, but Turner is the better shot blocker. I don't see the comparison at all. Collins will get blocks now and then, but he won't be a shot blocker in the NBA. Not with that wingspan. Turner is a legit rim protector with his length AND athleticism. Collins has the athleticism, but not the length. People seem to forget how much longer and athletic opposing players are in the NBA. 4 inches is a huge difference.

[Slartibartfast]

I'm not saying he can't outperform his length because it's possible, a la Al Horford. He has the athleticism, fluidity, passing and defensive instincts to do so. And if a team believes in him at the end of the lottery, I can see them taking him. It's just a bit riskier.

He has 4 inches of standing reach on Horford!

What's so risky about him?

He's 19, producing for a great team. Good standing reach for a 5. Great shot-blocking stats. Excellent rebounding numbers (though Zag bigs have significantly underperformed their college rebounding numbers in the pros). Great scoring and efficiency numbers with good versatility and strong indicators for his future range (good FT numbers in large sample, great 3-point numbers in tiny sample). Strong performance in some big games against good competition. Solid athleticism and lateral quickness suggesting good defensive potential as a PNR defender.

People want to stick to the white big guy comps, but those are still pretty favorable. If you give Cody Zeller 4 extra inches of standing reach to block more shots and more reliable range on his J, he would absolutely justify his #4 spot in the draft.

If you gave Kelly Olynyk 3 inches of standing reach and more athleticism/shot-blocking (and took away his handles) you'd have one of the better starting centers in the league.

If you gave Spencer Hawes or Frank Kaminsky some lateral quickness and explosiveness blocking shots they would have justified their lotto selection.

If you gave Meyers Leonard a motor and the willingness to play big, he would have justified his lotto selection.

The red flags around these other guys just aren't there with Collins.

He's much closer to Turner as a prospect only without the HS pedigree and questions surrounding his gait and knees.

Turner has a great high post game, while Collins is more under the basket. He also has a 7'4 wingspan, can shoot over players. Collins also has a bit more post control and better defensive instincts, but Turner is the better shot blocker. I don't see the comparison at all. Collins will get blocks now and then, but he won't be a shot blocker in the NBA. Not with that wingspan.

Why are you only considering wingspan? Guys generally block shots with their arms above their head, not extended wide. Collins has narrow shoulders but long arms, hence his wingspan is only decent but his standing reach is quite good. 9'3 is the same standing reach as Serge Ibaka and Clint Capela.

Nor are shot-blocking stats all that gaudy for bigs at Gonzaga. Karnowski's only a decent shot-blocker despite being a huge man. Sabonis was a mediocre shot-blocker at Gonzaga and maintained a similar rate for OKC. Ditto Kelly Olynyk. Sacre was decent and got downgraded to half-decent in the NBA.

[Roy The Natural]

I'm not saying he can't outperform his length because it's possible, a la Al Horford. He has the athleticism, fluidity, passing and defensive instincts to do so. And if a team believes in him at the end of the lottery, I can see them taking him. It's just a bit riskier.

He has 4 inches of standing reach on Horford!

What's so risky about him?

He's 19, producing for a great team. Good standing reach for a 5. Great shot-blocking stats. Excellent rebounding numbers (though Zag bigs have significantly underperformed their college rebounding numbers in the pros). Great scoring and efficiency numbers with good versatility and strong indicators for his future range (good FT numbers in large sample, great 3-point numbers in tiny sample). Strong performance in some big games against good competition. Solid athleticism and lateral quickness suggesting good defensive potential as a PNR defender.

People want to stick to the white big guy comps, but those are still pretty favorable. If you give Cody Zeller 4 extra inches of standing reach to block more shots and more reliable range on his J, he would absolutely justify his #4 spot in the draft.

If you gave Kelly Olynyk 3 inches of standing reach and more athleticism/shot-blocking (and took away his handles) you'd have one of the better starting centers in the league.

If you gave Spencer Hawes or Frank Kaminsky some lateral quickness and explosiveness blocking shots they would have justified their lotto selection.

If you gave Meyers Leonard a motor and the willingness to play big, he would have justified his lotto selection.

The red flags around these other guys just aren't there with Collins.

He's much closer to Turner as a prospect only without the HS pedigree and questions surrounding his gait and knees.

Turner has a great high post game, while Collins is more under the basket. He also has a 7'4 wingspan, can shoot over players. Collins also has a bit more post control and better defensive instincts, but Turner is the better shot blocker. I don't see the comparison at all. Collins will get blocks now and then, but he won't be a shot blocker in the NBA. Not with that wingspan. Turner is a legit rim protector with his length AND athleticism. Collins has the athleticism, but not the length. People seem to forget how much longer and athletic opposing players are in the NBA. 4 inches is a huge difference.

Again.. stop with the wingspan.. It's completely useless. There's 1 inch difference between their standing reaches. How about you tell us why wingspan should be a preferable metric to standing reach for a big? Is the bigman going to constantly have his arms spread to his sides to contest shots or something?

[doordoor123]

He has 4 inches of standing reach on Horford!

What's so risky about him?

He's 19, producing for a great team. Good standing reach for a 5. Great shot-blocking stats. Excellent rebounding numbers (though Zag bigs have significantly underperformed their college rebounding numbers in the pros). Great scoring and efficiency numbers with good versatility and strong indicators for his future range (good FT numbers in large sample, great 3-point numbers in tiny sample). Strong performance in some big games against good competition. Solid athleticism and lateral quickness suggesting good defensive potential as a PNR defender.

People want to stick to the white big guy comps, but those are still pretty favorable. If you give Cody Zeller 4 extra inches of standing reach to block more shots and more reliable range on his J, he would absolutely justify his #4 spot in the draft.

If you gave Kelly Olynyk 3 inches of standing reach and more athleticism/shot-blocking (and took away his handles) you'd have one of the better starting centers in the league.

If you gave Spencer Hawes or Frank Kaminsky some lateral quickness and explosiveness blocking shots they would have justified their lotto selection.

If you gave Meyers Leonard a motor and the willingness to play big, he would have justified his lotto selection.

The red flags around these other guys just aren't there with Collins.

He's much closer to Turner as a prospect only without the HS pedigree and questions surrounding his gait and knees.

Turner has a great high post game, while Collins is more under the basket. He also has a 7'4 wingspan, can shoot over players. Collins also has a bit more post control and better defensive instincts, but Turner is the better shot blocker. I don't see the comparison at all. Collins will get blocks now and then, but he won't be a shot blocker in the NBA. Not with that wingspan.

Why are you only considering wingspan? Guys generally block shots with their arms above their head, not extended wide. Collins has narrow shoulders but long arms, hence his wingspan is only decent but his standing reach is quite good. 9'3 is the same standing reach as Serge Ibaka and Clint Capela.

Nor are shot-blocking stats all that gaudy for bigs at Gonzaga. Karnowski's only a decent shot-blocker despite being a huge man. Sabonis was a mediocre shot-blocker at Gonzaga and maintained a similar rate for OKC. Ditto Kelly Olynyk. Sacre was decent and got downgraded to half-decent in the NBA.

I'm not discrediting his standing reach, I discredit standing reach as a whole. It only gets some of the job done. Most of the time players will drive around a center, not over.

[Roy The Natural]

Turner has a great high post game, while Collins is more under the basket. He also has a 7'4 wingspan, can shoot over players. Collins also has a bit more post control and better defensive instincts, but Turner is the better shot blocker. I don't see the comparison at all. Collins will get blocks now and then, but he won't be a shot blocker in the NBA. Not with that wingspan.

Why are you only considering wingspan? Guys generally block shots with their arms above their head, not extended wide. Collins has narrow shoulders but long arms, hence his wingspan is only decent but his standing reach is quite good. 9'3 is the same standing reach as Serge Ibaka and Clint Capela.

Nor are shot-blocking stats all that gaudy for bigs at Gonzaga. Karnowski's only a decent shot-blocker despite being a huge man. Sabonis was a mediocre shot-blocker at Gonzaga and maintained a similar rate for OKC. Ditto Kelly Olynyk. Sacre was decent and got downgraded to half-decent in the NBA.

I'm not discrediting his standing reach, I discredit standing reach as a whole. It only gets some of the job done. Most of the time players will drive around a center, not over.

Then you have to completely discredit wingspan as a whole.. as no center ever blocks shots with their arms perpendicular to their body.

[doordoor123]

Why are you only considering wingspan? Guys generally block shots with their arms above their head, not extended wide. Collins has narrow shoulders but long arms, hence his wingspan is only decent but his standing reach is quite good. 9'3 is the same standing reach as Serge Ibaka and Clint Capela.

Nor are shot-blocking stats all that gaudy for bigs at Gonzaga. Karnowski's only a decent shot-blocker despite being a huge man. Sabonis was a mediocre shot-blocker at Gonzaga and maintained a similar rate for OKC. Ditto Kelly Olynyk. Sacre was decent and got downgraded to half-decent in the NBA.

I'm not discrediting his standing reach, I discredit standing reach as a whole. It only gets some of the job done. Most of the time players will drive around a center, not over.

Then you have to completely discredit wingspan as a whole.. as no center ever blocks shots with their arms perpendicular to their body.

Standing reach is for defending in small spaces, but the NBA is quicker and more athletic, there aren't as many small spaces.

[Slartibartfast]

I'm not discrediting his standing reach, I discredit standing reach as a whole. It only gets some of the job done. Most of the time players will drive around a center, not over.

Then you have to completely discredit wingspan as a whole.. as no center ever blocks shots with their arms perpendicular to their body.

Standing reach is for defending in small spaces, but the NBA is quicker and more athletic, there aren't as many small spaces.

Even if you hate standing reach, you can block shots with a 7'1 wingspan or thereabouts. Joakim Noah blocked plenty of shots in his prime. So did Chris Kaman.

[DrCoach]

How is "best at his position" relevant when...there aren't actually good bigs in this draft? The best one decided to stay one more year...

He's competing with the other Collins, Allen, Anigbogu, Patton, Adebayo, 2017 Giles...congrats. Any of the guys I mentioned before and some others who are worse would also be the best guy at the 4/5 position in this draft.

Because there good bugs in the draft , I will go on record as saying at least a third of the first Rd picks will be bigs.

Thanks for highlighting all the good bigs in the draft

This makes no sense. Technically, if you have centers from 20-30, you also have 1/3 of the 1st round. That doesn't mean that there are tons of good bigs.

There is a reason why the best C/PF according to scouts, GMs and NCAA websites is Zach Collins, a prototypical role player who at most can be your 5th best starter. That's not who I'd pick with a top 10 pick.

Go ask the kings how drafting 'safe' guys ended up for them. At least Collins is not a senior, like most guys with his skillset and athleticism drafted in the lottery. That alone makes him interesting - just not top 10 material

Except most bugs won't go 20-30 , so your point is moot.

And what's wrong with being a starter in the NBA again, with the 10th pick?

And who says his upside is the worst starter on his team? You?

As for the Kings, you don't make sense. They don't make safe picks, they make BAD picks

[Roy The Natural]

I'm not discrediting his standing reach, I discredit standing reach as a whole. It only gets some of the job done. Most of the time players will drive around a center, not over.

Then you have to completely discredit wingspan as a whole.. as no center ever blocks shots with their arms perpendicular to their body.

Standing reach is for defending in small spaces, but the NBA is quicker and more athletic, there aren't as many small spaces.

That's not true.. as a professionally licensed mechanical engineer, I can tell you with quite certainty that you're misunderstanding the basic geometric correlations between between standing height and reach.




I uploaded this to give a better idea for people.

Now, this isn't a perfect representation as most players will obviously have a slightly oblong perimeter rather than a perfect circle. But some very basic math deduces some easy to see correlations.

Wingspan is a measure in diameter, so any difference in wingspan should be effectively halved when talking about a players effective reach perimeter with either hand as they attempt to alter shots, though again, body type makes these calculations more nuanced. The thing we see here in the picture, is that there is effectively 1 inch difference at the very top of the perimeter between Turner and Collins, using their draft express measurements. Both are perfect circles, but technically speaking the gap will grow between Turner and Collins circles as they approach the horizontal axis. It will grow from a 1" gap, to a 1.5" gap. Is that enough to make it noteworthy.. I'm not so sure. If we for whatever reason assumed a linear widening. The gap at 45 degrees would only be 1.25", for reference I marked 40 degrees as a point in which I believe most NBA blocks and contests happen. Between the vertical axis and 40 degrees.

I really think you're being quite naive in your assessment of wingspan vs standing height, and what actual differences are present. We're talking about a 1" difference pretty much throughout the contest/block range.

[doordoor123]

Then you have to completely discredit wingspan as a whole.. as no center ever blocks shots with their arms perpendicular to their body.

Standing reach is for defending in small spaces, but the NBA is quicker and more athletic, there aren't as many small spaces.

That's not true.. as a professionally licensed mechanical engineer, I can tell you with quite certainty that you're misunderstanding the basic geometric correlations between between standing height and reach.




I uploaded this to give a better idea for people.

Now, this isn't a perfect representation as most players will obviously have a slightly oblong perimeter rather than a perfect circle. But some very basic math deduces some easy to see correlations.

Wingspan is a measure in diameter, so any difference in wingspan should be effectively halved when talking about a players effective reach perimeter, though again, body type makes these calculations more nuanced. The thing we see here in the picture, is that there is effectively 1 inch difference at the very top of the perimeter between Turner and Collins, using their draft express measurements. Both are perfect circles, but technically speaking the gap will grow between Turner and Collins circles as they approach the horizontal axis. It will grow from a 1" gap, to a 1.5" gap. Is that enough to make it noteworthy.. I'm not so sure. If we for whatever reason assumed a linear widening. The gap at 45 degrees would only be 1.25", for reference I marked 40 degrees as a point in which I believe most NBA blocks and contests happen. Between the vertical axis and 45 degrees.

I really think you're being quite naive in your assessment of wingspan vs standing height, and what actual differences are present. We're talking about a 1" difference pretty much throughout the contest/block range.

Lol yeah, probably.

[ph1sh55]

all things considered standing reach/max reach is more important for rim protectors than it's ever been- verticality is an emphasis on defense near the basket, and 9'3" is quite good

[DanTown8587]

We didn't get his vert numbers but if you go over to his draftexpress page and just watch the first two plays (a dunk and a block) you can see very good vertical extension (ball is probably a good 11 feet on the dunk, blocks a top 10 pick at the rim) for a 19 year old. He's a true seven footer with good probability of extending his range and being a decent pick and pop guy. You're talking the same range Kaminsky went and I think Collins is a far superior prospect to that. If he was in the 2016 draft, I'd have taken him well ahead of Sabonis (who went 11), Poetel (who went 9), and probably Criss (who went 8). I think there's a great chance he falls to 15 because look at 10-14 on the board

10 - Kings
11 - Hornets
12 - Pistons
13 - Nuggets
14 - Heat

Those are all teams that have a ton of assets/money/playing time locked up in good C and Collins doesn't project to be a NBA 4 at all so you'd basically be taking a top 10 pick, in a fairly deep draft, and making him a future trade piece or 20 minute guy at best. Unless Dallas at 9 gets frisky, I could definitely see him "falling" but mostly due to what he is + where teams are drafting. Hell, Blazers might pass too with Nurkic there but I don't think the depth and talent around him is enough to pass on Collins.

[Roy The Natural]

We didn't get his vert numbers but if you go over to his draftexpress page and just watch the first two plays (a dunk and a block) you can see very good vertical extension (ball is probably a good 11 feet on the dunk, blocks a top 10 pick at the rim) for a 19 year old. He's a true seven footer with good probability of extending his range and being a decent pick and pop guy. You're talking the same range Kaminsky went and I think Collins is a far superior prospect to that. If he was in the 2016 draft, I'd have taken him well ahead of Sabonis (who went 11), Poetel (who went 9), and probably Criss (who went 8). I think there's a great chance he falls to 15 because look at 10-14 on the board

10 - Kings
11 - Hornets
12 - Pistons
13 - Nuggets
14 - Heat

Those are all teams that have a ton of assets/money/playing time locked up in good C and Collins doesn't project to be a NBA 4 at all so you'd basically be taking a top 10 pick, in a fairly deep draft, and making him a future trade piece or 20 minute guy at best. Unless Dallas at 9 gets frisky, I could definitely see him "falling" but mostly due to what he is + where teams are drafting. Hell, Blazers might pass too with Nurkic there but I don't think the depth and talent around him is enough to pass on Collins.

I absolutely can't imagine the Blazers passing on Collins if he's there. Not unless someone crazier falls.

[Blazinaway]

We didn't get his vert numbers but if you go over to his draftexpress page and just watch the first two plays (a dunk and a block) you can see very good vertical extension (ball is probably a good 11 feet on the dunk, blocks a top 10 pick at the rim) for a 19 year old. He's a true seven footer with good probability of extending his range and being a decent pick and pop guy. You're talking the same range Kaminsky went and I think Collins is a far superior prospect to that. If he was in the 2016 draft, I'd have taken him well ahead of Sabonis (who went 11), Poetel (who went 9), and probably Criss (who went 8). I think there's a great chance he falls to 15 because look at 10-14 on the board

10 - Kings
11 - Hornets
12 - Pistons
13 - Nuggets
14 - Heat

Those are all teams that have a ton of assets/money/playing time locked up in good C and Collins doesn't project to be a NBA 4 at all so you'd basically be taking a top 10 pick, in a fairly deep draft, and making him a future trade piece or 20 minute guy at best. Unless Dallas at 9 gets frisky, I could definitely see him "falling" but mostly due to what he is + where teams are drafting. Hell, Blazers might pass too with Nurkic there but I don't think the depth and talent around him is enough to pass on Collins.

I absolutely can't imagine the Blazers passing on Collins if he's there. Not unless someone crazier falls.

totally agree, Blazers have virtually no depth at C or PF, Meyers is a non event and Ed Davis has one yr left and Vonleh remains a hope but not a reality at this time, Blazers badly need an infusion of talent at PF/C

[DrCoach]

We didn't get his vert numbers but if you go over to his draftexpress page and just watch the first two plays (a dunk and a block) you can see very good vertical extension (ball is probably a good 11 feet on the dunk, blocks a top 10 pick at the rim) for a 19 year old. He's a true seven footer with good probability of extending his range and being a decent pick and pop guy. You're talking the same range Kaminsky went and I think Collins is a far superior prospect to that. If he was in the 2016 draft, I'd have taken him well ahead of Sabonis (who went 11), Poetel (who went 9), and probably Criss (who went 8). I think there's a great chance he falls to 15 because look at 10-14 on the board

10 - Kings
11 - Hornets
12 - Pistons
13 - Nuggets
14 - Heat

Those are all teams that have a ton of assets/money/playing time locked up in good C and Collins doesn't project to be a NBA 4 at all so you'd basically be taking a top 10 pick, in a fairly deep draft, and making him a future trade piece or 20 minute guy at best. Unless Dallas at 9 gets frisky, I could definitely see him "falling" but mostly due to what he is + where teams are drafting. Hell, Blazers might pass too with Nurkic there but I don't think the depth and talent around him is enough to pass on Collins.

I absolutely can't imagine the Blazers passing on Collins if he's there. Not unless someone crazier falls.

totally agree, Blazers have virtually no depth at C or PF, Meyers is a non event and Ed Davis has one yr left and Vonleh remains a hope but not a reality at this time, Blazers badly need an infusion of talent at PF/C

Ummm, they have is guy named Nurkic who had a 30/20 game

[Blazinaway]

I absolutely can't imagine the Blazers passing on Collins if he's there. Not unless someone crazier falls.

totally agree, Blazers have virtually no depth at C or PF, Meyers is a non event and Ed Davis has one yr left and Vonleh remains a hope but not a reality at this time, Blazers badly need an infusion of talent at PF/C

Ummm, they have is guy named Nurkic who had a 30/20 game

did you read where I said "no depth", I think I know we have Nurk, but with him hurt as we saw in the playoffs we have little else

[Kembastockton]

If the Blazers want Zac they will have to trade up for him. Despite what his wing span may or may not be, he is a 7 footer who can shoot and block shots. That is the kind of 7 footer everyone wants now. No way he falls to 15.

[WalterBenjamin]

Collins shoot is great. No hesitation. Doesn't put the ball down on the catch. If his D is NBA level he will be a great starting C. Difference maker should be him developing his passing. If he can.