Welcome Furkan Korkmaz

[HartfordWhalers]

Spoiler:

Korkmaz is so young that the first few years of his rookie deal would be spent in development, unlike Saric who came over more NBA ready both physically and in terms of higher level experience and BBIQ. So really, only the last 1-2 years of Korkmaz's rookie deal will be high value in terms of being able to help a playoff team.

He is unlikely to get a huge deal if he comes over in 2 years off of the rookie scale. That contract would certainly be more costly than the rookie scale, but he'd also be giving you more useful years on that contract should he come over later. Conversely, I can see a world where he comes over right away, and shows enough in a few years at age 22 do earn a much bigger NBA contract when he is a 23 year old RFA.

So if he comes over and developes into a solid starter, I can imaging his salary being:
1.5M age 19
1.6M
1.7M
1.8M age 22
15M age 23
16M
17M
18M age 26

While if he stays 2 years I can imagine:
Europe age 19
Europe
8M age 21 non-rookie scale late 1st rounder deal
9M age 22
9M age 23
10M age 24
16M age 25 (2nd NBA contract)
17M age 26

Spoiler:

So if you compare, coming over means you get a huge bargain at age 21 and 22 when he is starting to approach his prime. But staying 2 more years you get a longer part of his prime on his initial deal, meaning a comparative bargain at age 23 and age 24, which could help your cap if you are a contender in those years (when Embiid is 28-29 years old.)

So I think it is a win-win.


tl/DNR:
Korkmaz coming over now gives you massive savings the next few years - at a time when the Sixers already have a bunch of cap space. And staying in Europe 2 more years leads to more cap costs early on... but could actually lead to some comparative cap savings 4 and 5 years down the road, at a time we hope the Sixers are contenders.

I wouldn't have that structure. I would switch it to something like:

While if he stays 2 years I can imagine:
Europe age 19
Europe
8M age 21 non-rookie scale late 1st rounder deal
9M age 22
9M age 23
10M age 24 16M age 24 2nd contract
16M age 25 (2nd NBA contract)
17M age 26

If the first deal is 4/36M as you had it, then he would be an unrestricted free agent come year 4 and a serious flight risk with no matching. Only first round scale contracts get the 4th year and to still be restricted.

[Sixerscan]

Spoiler:

Korkmaz is so young that the first few years of his rookie deal would be spent in development, unlike Saric who came over more NBA ready both physically and in terms of higher level experience and BBIQ. So really, only the last 1-2 years of Korkmaz's rookie deal will be high value in terms of being able to help a playoff team.

He is unlikely to get a huge deal if he comes over in 2 years off of the rookie scale. That contract would certainly be more costly than the rookie scale, but he'd also be giving you more useful years on that contract should he come over later. Conversely, I can see a world where he comes over right away, and shows enough in a few years at age 22 do earn a much bigger NBA contract when he is a 23 year old RFA.

So if he comes over and developes into a solid starter, I can imaging his salary being:
1.5M age 19
1.6M
1.7M
1.8M age 22
15M age 23
16M
17M
18M age 26

While if he stays 2 years I can imagine:
Europe age 19
Europe
8M age 21 non-rookie scale late 1st rounder deal
9M age 22
9M age 23
10M age 24
16M age 25 (2nd NBA contract)
17M age 26

Spoiler:

So if you compare, coming over means you get a huge bargain at age 21 and 22 when he is starting to approach his prime. But staying 2 more years you get a longer part of his prime on his initial deal, meaning a comparative bargain at age 23 and age 24, which could help your cap if you are a contender in those years (when Embiid is 28-29 years old.)

So I think it is a win-win.


tl/DNR:
Korkmaz coming over now gives you massive savings the next few years - at a time when the Sixers already have a bunch of cap space. And staying in Europe 2 more years leads to more cap costs early on... but could actually lead to some comparative cap savings 4 and 5 years down the road, at a time we hope the Sixers are contenders.

I wouldn't have that structure. I would switch it to something like:

While if he stays 2 years I can imagine:
Europe age 19
Europe
8M age 21 non-rookie scale late 1st rounder deal
9M age 22
9M age 23
10M age 24 16M age 24 2nd contract
16M age 25 (2nd NBA contract)
17M age 26

If the first deal is 4/36M as you had it, then he would be an unrestricted free agent come year 4 and a serious flight risk with no matching. Only first round scale contracts get the 4th year and to still be restricted.

I really doubt Korkmas would get anywhere near $8 million a year on his first contract unless he takes a GIANT leap forward over the next 2 years. As tk said this isn't a Dario situation.

And while a 3 year deal probably makes the most sense, I think worrying about him being a flight risk 6 years from now is highly speculative. Let's see him prove he can play in a top European league first before we start talking about some NBA team throwing $70 million at him.

[Kobblehead]

If Kormaz is just a tall, athletic, catch and shoot player that plays poor defense and lacks the ability to create, is he really worth the worry? With all due respect to Furkan, what I perceive his player archetype to be is not exactly irreplaceable.

I don't think we should panic and rush to bring him over just to get him on the rookie scale. If he wants to wait until it expires and then hunt for an overpay, can't we just trade his rights? Or is he an UFA at that point? I would assume the former.

[HartfordWhalers]

I wouldn't have that structure. I would switch it to something like:

While if he stays 2 years I can imagine:
Europe age 19
Europe
8M age 21 non-rookie scale late 1st rounder deal
9M age 22
9M age 23
10M age 24 16M age 24 2nd contract
16M age 25 (2nd NBA contract)
17M age 26

If the first deal is 4/36M as you had it, then he would be an unrestricted free agent come year 4 and a serious flight risk with no matching. Only first round scale contracts get the 4th year and to still be restricted.

I really doubt Korkmas would get anywhere near $8 million a year on his first contract unless he takes a GIANT leap forward over the next 2 years. As tk said this isn't a Dario situation.

And while a 3 year deal probably makes the most sense, I think worrying about him being a flight risk 6 years from now is highly speculative. Let's see him prove he can play in a top European league first before we start talking about some NBA team throwing $70 million at him.

Two quick points:
1) a 3 year deal if he comes over after rookie scale isn't just 'the most sense' it is the only type of contract that makes sense. Mirotic etc all sign 3 year deals because it makes no sense for a team to give up the full MLE money and then have a guy be unrestricted after you develop him. This is the big point, as I just kept tk's numbersfor contracts with no judgment on them.

2) In terms of a 70m second contract.... I think its highly unlikely is a safe thing to say.
But whether he is getting 70/4 or 12/4 offers,the restricted control is still important. And whether he is getting 70/4 would be based off his NBA performance those first three years in the NBA, so decided after that first contract.

[HartfordWhalers]

If Kormaz is just a tall, athletic, catch and shoot player that plays poor defense and lacks the ability to create, is he really worth the worry? With all due respect to Furkan, what I perceive his player archetype to be is not exactly irreplaceable.

I don't think we should panic and rush to bring him over just to get him on the rookie scale. If he wants to wait until it expires and then hunt for an overpay, can't we just trade his rights? Or is he an UFA at that point? I would assume the former.

He would be rights held and tradable.

[tk76]

If Kormaz is just a tall, athletic, catch and shoot player that plays poor defense and lacks the ability to create, is he really worth the worry? With all due respect to Furkan, what I perceive his player archetype to be is not exactly irreplaceable.

We are talking a late 1st rounder, so the odds he develops into a "replaceable" player are high. But it terms of talent, I think you are really selling him short. IMO Korkmaz's ceiling is higher than you are suggesting.

I'm no expert on Korkmaz (I knew a lot more about Saric when he was at Efes)... but his skill/talent set s:

1. Potentially great shooter who should create a lot of gravity with the threat of his shot
-Unlimited range and high release
-Versatile shooter who shoots well off dribble, off screens and when set
-Willing shooter who can be a volume scoring threat but not a gunner
These attributes alone for a 6'7" reasonably athletic SG give him a "starting SG on a good team" type of ceiling given the current state of the SG position in the NBA.

2. Unfixable weaknesses:
-Korkmaz has a thin build, so even as he matures and gains strength it could limit his positional versatility to where he will never be able to be a full time SF given the trend of the NBA towards more rugged SF's. That said, he is not a tweener nor undersized since he has the physical attributes and skill set to play SG and has the length to switch onto SF's.
-Never going to be a high FTA/Ast type of driver/creator. He has a reasonable handle and BBIQ (as shown in U19 games against peers), but has never shown the potential to develop into the type of crafty scorer who draws fouls and creates for others through drives.) I could be wrong, maybe others have watched him more.
-Never going to be a dominant defender (but not destined to be a defensive liabity- see below.)

3. Fixable areas:
-Defense: Good length and reasonably quick/explosive. Very weak now, but IMO he projects as a decent defender as a SG. His defensive game is probably 4 years away from maturing (age 23 on.) I doubt defense will be his calling card, but I also think he projects as a much better shooter than most 3&D types because he is a pure shooter and not simply a guy who hits shots when left open.
-Ballhandling: Shows some promise, especially when you look at his games against peers. Has nice BBIQ and long stridor. Not a chucker or ball dominant, so growth in this area will help his overall game. Will never need an elite 1st step, because will always be at an advantage with guys trying to run him off the line. Probably 2 years away (age 21-2) from developing this area of his game.
---

Overall as a SG prospect, I put Korkmaz close to where Stauskas was when drafted (talking about NCAA Stauskas, not current player.) Korkmaz has much less promise as a creator, but a bit more promise as a shooter/scorer and a bit more explosive/fluid of an athlete with better length. So I see him as a late lottery type of prospect with a potential ceiling as a quality starter who makes the game easier for your stars. Maybe in the JJ Reddick type of mold (though not identical types) who is not easily replaceable. It is easy to find a scoring gunner (JR Smith, Lou Will, Young), but not so easy to find a high gravity shooter at SG who does not hurt you in other ways. That is how I project Korkmaz, best likely case in 3-4 years.

[Kobblehead]

So basically....

- tall and athletic
- probable low volume scorer
- legit 40% from beyond shooter
- not much of a creator for himself or teammates, nor a driver of the basketball
- a non-liability, passable defender, at best

Sounds very similar to Allen Crabbe.

[tk76]

So basically....

- tall and athletic
- probable low volume scorer
- legit 40% from beyond shooter
- not much of a creator for himself or teammates, nor a driver of the basketball
- a non-liability, passable defender, at best

Sounds very similar to Allen Crabbe.

As a late 1st rounder, odds are he is never as good as Crabbe. But in terms of upside/potential:

Defender: I think he could become a good defender as a SG, just not a versatile multi positional one. He has the potential to be good at staying in front of his man and chasing on screens as well being good at contesting jumpers. But I think as a defender he at least 4 years away from his prime. Which is part of the reason I think there is less benefit for him coming over right away.

Scorer: I actually could see him as a fairly high volume scorer. As a shooter he has to be able to be high volume enough to create gravity. A korver as opposed to a Kapono. Would you call Korver or Reddick low volume scorers? (never 20ppg guys.) And unlike those guys, I think he could be a weapon cutting to the rim either on back door or leaking out on the break- which he does a lot for Bandit. To be valuable he needs to be able to go off for 18 points in a qtr every now and again... and I think he has the upside and mentality to be that type of scorer. But I agree, his scoring won't create directly for others. But it can indirectly help a lot through his gravity.

Passer; I think he is has a decent BBIQ and is not ball dominant. So he should be able to maximixe his positive impact on an offense. When you have Simmons and another PG (say Fultz, Ball or Lowry) then you actually need another starter who fits the Korkmaz profile more than a guy who creates FTA off the dribble. The original arguement was was he potentially valuable enough to even consider as an asset- and I think he is.


...My main issue is that for the next 3-4 years he will be a fungible player (albeit one on a cheap rookie contract), and then could develop into a valuable player after that as he enters his prime (24+ y/o.) So coming over now means that you are not maximizing your value. Also, I worry that coming over to osoon will limit his role to just a spot up shooter, and curtail his ultimate development as a versatile scorer.

[Unbreakable99]

I was listening to the radio and some caller called in and compared Korkmaz to Pistol Pete LMAO. Where there you have it. We have the next Olajuwon in Embiid and the next Magic in Simmons and now the next Pistol Pete in Korkmaz. No way we don't win at least 5 titles.

[tk76]

Korkmaz and Saric are so different it makes for an interesting contrast.

Korkmaz has a bankable NBA skill that can get him on the floor right away. But he will take many more years to grow into his prime. Saric last year was sort of the opposite. He clearly is the rare player who has always played more like a guys 5+ years more experienced. And his game was close to NBA ready is most aspects, but at the same time not really bankably NBA ready in any one aspect aside from his mind/approach.

Prior to Efes, Saric had years of being a truly dominant player. I think this has given him the confidence and drive to come into the NBA and maximize his impact right away- despite his current flaws. So his efficiency is work in progress- although it is very promissing to see his efficiency is actually improving at the same time his productivity improved.

Saric could very easily been a flop last year, much like other talented guys like Vesely was at age 21-22 (who athletically was much more gifted.) The difference was Vesely mentally was not ready to maximize his talent. Where Saric was able to learn on the fly what he could translate to the NBA (in his case, taking guys off the dribble and scoring with old man moves, using sort a Scola type game.) While Vesely tried to succeed with what had gotten him drafted- by out athleting guys, which did not work as a young NBA player.

My point is that Saric is very likely to maximize his NBA impact throughout his career because of his elite approach to the game. Maybe he develops as a shooter, or maybe he learns to trick the ref into foul calls. But regardless, he will become more effecient and more impactful almost by sheer force of will, because he is more savvy than most players. You pair that attitude and intellect with a freak athlete and you get a Lebron or MJ. You pair it will an elite shot and you get a Bird. But even without those things, you still end up with a highly valuable player who will maximize his impact regardless of the situation. (Then again, I thought ET had some of those same qualities when drafted, and it never really was the case, but he was never the consistent elite player on the world stage against his peers the way Saric was.)

Korkmaz is not that guy. He is more a guy who potentially is elite in one area and good enough (eventually) in all the others. So how he develops is more dependant on circumstance. In the wrong setting he develops into nothing more than a Belinelli. But if he gets the chance to grow his entire game then he could be a starter on a title team down the road... but not for at least 4 years. So I'd rather him get the chance to fill more of a Klay role (in Europe) so that he can develop into a more rounded, more dangerous player in the long term. But on the flip side, I think his shot form (needs to be more compact) and his physical growth would come along better working with NBA people. In an ideal world, Korkmaz could be bought out by a high level ACB team for 3-4 years and then come over NBA ready at age 23- even if he cost more, he would still be a great value. But that is not really an option.

[tk76]

I was listening to the radio and some caller called in and compared Korkmaz to Pistol Pete LMAO. Where there you have it. We have the next Olajuwon in Embiid and the next Magic in Simmons and now the next Pistol Pete in Korkmaz. No way we don't win at least 5 titles.

I think Embiid, and maybe Simmons could actually develop into all timers. But Korkmaz, no

That said, some combination of RoCo, TLC and Korkmaz could become a very nice (complementary) SG/SF rotation for the next 8-10 years. They just won't be your headliners.

the future is dependant on the star level success of Embiid, Simmons and the upcoming high lottery picks (or trades for stars.) But after 3-4 years of having a bunch of slop on the floor in terms of complementary pieces, this team all of the sudden seems to have a ton of promissing players that could become mainstays of a quality rotation. Guys like Roco, Saric, Holmes, TLC and Kormaz are the types of complementary players that help you win. While the last 4 years was more full of guys more in the mold of Stauskas, Justin Anderson, Okafor- who help you increase your lottery odds.

[HotelVitale]

If Kormaz is just a tall, athletic, catch and shoot player that plays poor defense and lacks the ability to create, is he really worth the worry? With all due respect to Furkan, what I perceive his player archetype to be is not exactly irreplaceable.

What 'worry' are you referring to? He's an interesting prospect and we have his rights, so we're talking about him. He's probably not going to be an all-star or anything but he's interesting, tall athletic shooter who's played at some pretty high levels. Talking about what his role will be or when he should come over etc is just casual bball talk, not exactly stressful.

[kriss73]

Read on Twitter

[rzzzzz]

if we take Jackson or Tatum (or even Fox), > % Furkan comes over this summer?

[Kobblehead]

Since the league limits how much every team can contribute toward a buyout, it might not be financially feasible for the 19-year-old Korkmaz to join the Sixers now.

Colangelo said he thinks Korkmaz is “emotionally ready (for the NBA, but) I think physically he’s got a ways to go. Dario was probably farther along, age-wise and experience-wise, when he was coming over.”

I seriously doubt we bring Korkmaz over here next year.

[Unbreakable99]

Since the league limits how much every team can contribute toward a buyout, it might not be financially feasible for the 19-year-old Korkmaz to join the Sixers now.

Colangelo said he thinks Korkmaz is “emotionally ready (for the NBA, but) I think physically he’s got a ways to go. Dario was probably farther along, age-wise and experience-wise, when he was coming over.”

I seriously doubt we bring Korkmaz over here next year.

Let's hope so. A more mature player would help. Stay over.

[PhilasFinest]

man, imagine if we just drafted Brogdon.

[Kobblehead]

man, imagine if we just drafted Brogdon.

Or Pat McCaw.

And crappy rookie season metrics aside, Isaiah Whitehead could be a problem in this league as a 2-way, power combo guard.

If the endgame for Korkmaz is basically Allen Crabbe, I'm never going to like the pick.

[long range bomber]

My dream scenario for Korkmaz would be a prime Rudy Fernandez. Dude was a sniper from long range (broke the rookie record for 3s made), had good handles and playmaking for a 2 and was great in transition.

[HotelVitale]

I seriously doubt we bring Korkmaz over here next year.

We really don't have a choice. Def happened before that a team would prefer a player stay over longer and the player comes over. We can be a-holes to him and discourage him but can't not offer him the rook deal if he wants it.