State of the Cap?

[vct33]

I love Crowder but I think he needs to be the guy packing his bags if we get Hayward. We need to bet getting Brown more minutes next year. Not less.

Can we trade Crowder, Smart and future pick(s) (LAC '19 maybe) for Hayward in a S&T? Would this allow us to keep The Olynyk?

[Fencer reregistered]

Per Larry Coon's FAQ, extensions can basically add 3 years to a guy's contract.

But that FAQ is based on the previous CBA. Have the extension rules changed? I like the idea of giving IT a max extension and Avery a very large one too. The amount of money involved would be enough for lifetime financial security for them, so the deals could be appealing -- especially for Avery, for whom it should be pretty easy to structure a deal that doesn't reduce the expected value (risk-adjusted or otherwise as the case may be) of his overall lifetime earnings.

[ConstableGeneva]

I haven't really seen him play much apart from games vs. Cs, but how about Willy Hernangomez? Can the guy start in his sophomore year? Is there a potential overlap with Zizic? Are the Knicks even open to trading him? REB% above 20 though he went up against bench units. If Celtics are looking to trade Crowder/Bradley/Smart for cap space, I'd prefer someone more proven like him over another late 1st.

Just trying to think of bigs who are very early in their rookie contract but can also contribute now. It's hard to come up with names who fall into this category.

[TheOGJabroni]

So from what I'm seeing, two of Bradley, Crowder, Smart & Olynyk have to go if we are to keep our pick & sign Hayward. In this case, I think keeping Kelly is a must as he's the only legitimate front court player & he's a big that fits Brad's offense like a glove.

So the decision needs to be made on a perimeter player. Bradley is the easiest choice as he's due for a major payday next offseason but he's also the best player of the three (and longest tenured, FWIW). I don't have any interest in getting less talented. He's also our starting SG and has proven his defensive versatility time and time again, especially in these playoffs guarding the likes of Butler, Wall, and last night, quietly did a great job on Irving.

With that, Smart becomes expendable. We'll have too many guys lobbying for minutes at the guard positions and he hasn't proven enough to not be the guy sent out. Crowder, sadly, will be out by default with Hayward signing and Brown in the wings as well.

Thomas / Rozier / Jackson
Bradley / Fultz
Hayward / Brown / Nader
Olynyk / Yabusele
Horford / Zizic

That's 12 guys, just under the 101 mil threshold (with Kelly's cap hold) so I think if we trade Crowder & Smart for future draft selections, we're in the clear. From there, I think we could use an exception on Amir Johnson if we wanted to bring him back for some front court depth. Sign a couple veteran minimum guys to fill out the roster & roll.

[smart_celtics]

Smittys article says we need to dump KO and 1 of Bradley, Smart, Crowder but I think we can get Hayward or we'd be offering him 3.5 mil short of the max.

I disagree with that take. First the estimates of the cap I saw were 102 mil. That gives you an extra million. Then I would dump Rozier and gain another .9 mil in cap space. Now you are about 1.5 mil from the max and offering Hayward about 6-8 millon less over 4 years. I think he would just sign with us instead of making us dump Bradley, Smart or Crowder. The whole reason he's coming here is to win games with those 3, IT and Horford.

The NBA came out with a more recent projection of the salary cap at 101 million, not 102. They need to move Bradley or Smart to play Fultz anyway, shouldn't be much of an issue

Would love to get 7 from Minni or 8 from NYK for Bradley. He'd be a great fit in minni and he's still young enough to be contribute for another 6-7 years. NYK I can see making a panic win now move. I'd take Markkanen who I see as a big upgrade over KO.

The problem with getting a 2017 pick is that it has a cap hold so you are looking at moving other salary to open cap space. I think most likely to move Bradley in July when you have a better idea of whether Hayward might come.

[smart_celtics]

Per Larry Coon's FAQ, extensions can basically add 3 years to a guy's contract.

But that FAQ is based on the previous CBA. Have the extension rules changed? I like the idea of giving IT a max extension and Avery a very large one too. The amount of money involved would be enough for lifetime financial security for them, so the deals could be appealing -- especially for Avery, for whom it should be pretty easy to structure a deal that doesn't reduce the expected value (risk-adjusted or otherwise as the case may be) of his overall lifetime earnings.

I don't think we would have the cap space to both give IT a max extension and Avery an extension, unless you are talking about moving other players. You may be able to get IT to take less than the max but not clear that he would agree to a number that was low enough that Avery would find high enough.

[GregB]

Smittys article says we need to dump KO and 1 of Bradley, Smart, Crowder but I think we can get Hayward or we'd be offering him 3.5 mil short of the max.

I disagree with that take. First the estimates of the cap I saw were 102 mil. That gives you an extra million. Then I would dump Rozier and gain another .9 mil in cap space. Now you are about 1.5 mil from the max and offering Hayward about 6-8 millon less over 4 years. I think he would just sign with us instead of making us dump Bradley, Smart or Crowder. The whole reason he's coming here is to win games with those 3, IT and Horford.

The NBA came out with a more recent projection of the salary cap at 101 million, not 102. They need to move Bradley or Smart to play Fultz anyway, shouldn't be much of an issue

Yeah it's pretty clear Smart to me. Love the kid and those big boy plays. But he also makes a ton of dumb plays that offsets those moments. He isn't getting paid here based on his lack of offensive improvement.

I could also see us moving Bradley if we planned on adding another big or to free up cap space so we can keep Kelly's bird rights.

[smart_celtics]

So from what I'm seeing, two of Bradley, Crowder, Smart & Olynyk have to go if we are to keep our pick & sign Hayward. In this case, I think keeping Kelly is a must as he's the only legitimate front court player & he's a big that fits Brad's offense like a glove.

So the decision needs to be made on a perimeter player. Bradley is the easiest choice as he's due for a major payday next offseason but he's also the best player of the three (and longest tenured, FWIW). I don't have any interest in getting less talented. He's also our starting SG and has proven his defensive versatility time and time again, especially in these playoffs guarding the likes of Butler, Wall, and last night, quietly did a great job on Irving.

With that, Smart becomes expendable. We'll have too many guys lobbying for minutes at the guard positions and he hasn't proven enough to not be the guy sent out. Crowder, sadly, will be out by default with Hayward signing and Brown in the wings as well.

Thomas / Rozier / Jackson
Bradley / Fultz
Hayward / Brown / Nader
Olynyk / Yabusele
Horford / Zizic

That's 12 guys, just under the 101 mil threshold (with Kelly's cap hold) so I think if we trade Crowder & Smart for future draft selections, we're in the clear. From there, I think we could use an exception on Amir Johnson if we wanted to bring him back for some front court depth. Sign a couple veteran minimum guys to fill out the roster & roll.

Given how much we play small in the playoffs, I would prefer to keep Crowder over Olynyk and include Hayward, Jaylen and Crowder in a rotation that takes time both at the SF and PF spot. Olynyk is such an inconsistent player and really has a tough time defensively against the best teams (see last night). One game in like five he will shoot it enough to make it worthwhile, but not sure I want to have that trade off and pay him $12 - 15 million a year. Having $50 million of our caps in bigs when league is going small and you can find cheap serviceable bigs probably doesn't make sense.

Bradley v. Smart is a much harder call for me. Bradley has been much much better in the playoffs and you fear that Smart is sometimes borderline unplayable if he can't hit his threes and doesn't have his defensive intensity at 110%. On the other hand, Smart will bring less in a trade (do other teams value what the Cs value in him? do they view him as a starting PG given his offensive limitations?), has more team control (as an RFA) and therefore will be signed to a more reasonable contract, won't get in the way of moving Fultz into the starting line up in 2 - 3 years, and matches up better with a "be good now and later" timeline. Also maybe (maybe!) he can start hitting 3p% since he is still young. The Celtics will have some serious luxury tax issues if they have Horford, IT, and Hayward on max contracts and Bradley on something like a $20 million contract. Not clear ownership would be thrilled about that. On the other hand, if I am Hayward, I don't sign with the Cs unless they are keeping Bradley, since clearly the best win-now line up is IT-AB-Hayward-Crowder-Horford. Anyway, really torn on that one. It would have been so much easier if Smart had just shot 30% from three point range this year, then I could at least sell the "he's becoming a better shooter" line.

[smart_celtics]

Would love to get 7 from Minni or 8 from NYK for Bradley. He'd be a great fit in minni and he's still young enough to be contribute for another 6-7 years. NYK I can see making a panic win now move. I'd take Markkanen who I see as a big upgrade over KO.

Any trade for an expensive rookie this year lessens the cap savings.

Also, we should not rule out strategies that include keeping Kelly. His cap hold is significantly below his true value, just as other guys' are.

True but we don't need a lot of cap savings just 3-5 million which I think Bradley for 7 or 8 does. The real savings is in year 2, 3, 4 of that rookie contract instead of paying Bradley 20 million per.

I won't rule it out either but I don't want to pay KO big money on a long term deal. Especially with IT, Hayward, Horford core I want defensive guys around them.

No you need the full amount unless you are saying that you are also renouncing KO at the same time.

[Banks2Pierce]

So from what I'm seeing, two of Bradley, Crowder, Smart & Olynyk have to go if we are to keep our pick & sign Hayward.

It depends quite a bit on Yabusele.

According to my sheets(so throw in some likelihood for error there), we need to cut out a total of 10.43 million from these numbers(their 17/18 salary or cap hold less the roster charge) to get fully to Hayward's 30.3:

Bradley, Avery 7.99
Brown, Jaylen 4.14
Crowder, Jae 5.98
Horford, Al 26.92
Jackson, Demetrius (he's weird because of a guarantee.)
Olynyk, Kelly 6.92
Rozier, Terry 1.17
Smart, Marcus 3.72
Thomas, Isaiah 5.44
#1 Pick 6.21
Zizic 829k
Yabusele 1.43

[Fencer reregistered]

Per Larry Coon's FAQ, extensions can basically add 3 years to a guy's contract.

But that FAQ is based on the previous CBA. Have the extension rules changed? I like the idea of giving IT a max extension and Avery a very large one too. The amount of money involved would be enough for lifetime financial security for them, so the deals could be appealing -- especially for Avery, for whom it should be pretty easy to structure a deal that doesn't reduce the expected value (risk-adjusted or otherwise as the case may be) of his overall lifetime earnings.

I don't think we would have the cap space to both give IT a max extension and Avery an extension, unless you are talking about moving other players. You may be able to get IT to take less than the max but not clear that he would agree to a number that was low enough that Avery would find high enough.

I don't understand your concern. The added salary in 2018-9 is OK by the Larry Bird Exception whether it's agreed to in July 2017 or in July 2018.

Or are you worrying about luxury tax/hard cap?

[smart_celtics]

Per Larry Coon's FAQ, extensions can basically add 3 years to a guy's contract.

But that FAQ is based on the previous CBA. Have the extension rules changed? I like the idea of giving IT a max extension and Avery a very large one too. The amount of money involved would be enough for lifetime financial security for them, so the deals could be appealing -- especially for Avery, for whom it should be pretty easy to structure a deal that doesn't reduce the expected value (risk-adjusted or otherwise as the case may be) of his overall lifetime earnings.

I don't think we would have the cap space to both give IT a max extension and Avery an extension, unless you are talking about moving other players. You may be able to get IT to take less than the max but not clear that he would agree to a number that was low enough that Avery would find high enough.

I don't understand your concern. The added salary in 2018-9 is OK by the Larry Bird Exception whether it's agreed to in July 2017 or in July 2018.

Or are you worrying about luxury tax/hard cap?

Sorry, I though you were saying that you would do the Harden/Westbrook/Gallinari extension where you would use some of your current cap to give IT or AB a higher salary next year and extend him beyond that. Bird rights don't help there. They only help when they are actually in free agency.

[TheOGJabroni]

So from what I'm seeing, two of Bradley, Crowder, Smart & Olynyk have to go if we are to keep our pick & sign Hayward. In this case, I think keeping Kelly is a must as he's the only legitimate front court player & he's a big that fits Brad's offense like a glove.

So the decision needs to be made on a perimeter player. Bradley is the easiest choice as he's due for a major payday next offseason but he's also the best player of the three (and longest tenured, FWIW). I don't have any interest in getting less talented. He's also our starting SG and has proven his defensive versatility time and time again, especially in these playoffs guarding the likes of Butler, Wall, and last night, quietly did a great job on Irving.

With that, Smart becomes expendable. We'll have too many guys lobbying for minutes at the guard positions and he hasn't proven enough to not be the guy sent out. Crowder, sadly, will be out by default with Hayward signing and Brown in the wings as well.

Thomas / Rozier / Jackson
Bradley / Fultz
Hayward / Brown / Nader
Olynyk / Yabusele
Horford / Zizic

That's 12 guys, just under the 101 mil threshold (with Kelly's cap hold) so I think if we trade Crowder & Smart for future draft selections, we're in the clear. From there, I think we could use an exception on Amir Johnson if we wanted to bring him back for some front court depth. Sign a couple veteran minimum guys to fill out the roster & roll.

Given how much we play small in the playoffs, I would prefer to keep Crowder over Olynyk and include Hayward, Jaylen and Crowder in a rotation that takes time both at the SF and PF spot. Olynyk is such an inconsistent player and really has a tough time defensively against the best teams (see last night). One game in like five he will shoot it enough to make it worthwhile, but not sure I want to have that trade off and pay him $12 - 15 million a year. Having $50 million of our caps in bigs when league is going small and you can find cheap serviceable bigs probably doesn't make sense.

Bradley v. Smart is a much harder call for me. Bradley has been much much better in the playoffs and you fear that Smart is sometimes borderline unplayable if he can't hit his threes and doesn't have his defensive intensity at 110%. On the other hand, Smart will bring less in a trade (do other teams value what the Cs value in him? do they view him as a starting PG given his offensive limitations?), has more team control (as an RFA) and therefore will be signed to a more reasonable contract, won't get in the way of moving Fultz into the starting line up in 2 - 3 years, and matches up better with a "be good now and later" timeline. Also maybe (maybe!) he can start hitting 3p% since he is still young. The Celtics will have some serious luxury tax issues if they have Horford, IT, and Hayward on max contracts and Bradley on something like a $20 million contract. Not clear ownership would be thrilled about that. On the other hand, if I am Hayward, I don't sign with the Cs unless they are keeping Bradley, since clearly the best win-now line up is IT-AB-Hayward-Crowder-Horford. Anyway, really torn on that one. It would have been so much easier if Smart had just shot 30% from three point range this year, then I could at least sell the "he's becoming a better shooter" line.

You may be right in choosing Crowder over Olynyk, in the sense that we often go small anyway, but I also wonder if that's not as much by choice but just Brad working with what he's given. Olynyk can be unplayable at PF at times though. It could be in our best interest that we keep Crowder if we feel he can defend PFs all year long.

In regards to the Smart vs Bradley debate, it's becoming clearer and clearer to me that the answer is Bradley. Smart brings a lot to the table but Bradley has the best off-ball skillet which is going to be needed when you consider the usage of IT, Al, and soon to be, Fultz. Bradley may demand more in a trade, even in his contract year, but that's because he's the better player. I want the better players on my team. We also can't afford a massive return in a trade anyway. If we get a mid-late first from a team for Smart, I take it given our cap situation going forward.

edit: in checking the numbers, choosing Jae over Kelly's cap hold has us just under 100 mil for 12 players too, so a little extra (& necessary wiggle room).

[smart_celtics]

So from what I'm seeing, two of Bradley, Crowder, Smart & Olynyk have to go if we are to keep our pick & sign Hayward.

It depends quite a bit on Yabusele.

According to my sheets(so throw in some likelihood for error there), we need to cut out a total of 10.43 million from these numbers(their 17/18 salary or cap hold less the roster charge) to get fully to Hayward's 30.3:

Bradley, Avery 7.99
Brown, Jaylen 4.14
Crowder, Jae 5.98
Horford, Al 26.92
Jackson, Demetrius (he's weird because of a guarantee.)
Olynyk, Kelly 6.92
Rozier, Terry 1.17
Smart, Marcus 3.72
Thomas, Isaiah 5.44
#1 Pick 6.21
Zizic 829k
Yabusele 1.43

I agree. If you stash Yabu another year, there are scenarios where you are choosing between trading Bradley or renouncing Olynyk and using trades of Rozier and/or Jackson to get the last bit of salary. Hoping the salary cap bumps up to at least $102 to make this easier.

[vct33]

Is Isaiah Thomas really a max guy? I'm not a hater but I don't know if I can swallow that.

[Homerclease]

Is Isaiah Thomas really a max guy? I'm not a hater but I don't know if I can swallow that.

Yes.

[Slax]

Is Isaiah Thomas really a max guy? I'm not a hater but I don't know if I can swallow that.

His contract isn't up until the 2018 offseason, so whether or not he is worth max salary is completely immaterial to our cap situation this offseason.

[Banks2Pierce]

Is Isaiah Thomas really a max guy? I'm not a hater but I don't know if I can swallow that.

His contract isn't up until the 2018 offseason, so whether or not he is worth max salary is completely immaterial to our cap situation this offseason.

Could quickly come into the picture depending on the FA market or if we want to bypass FA(likely due to a trade) and possibly renegotiate and extend to manage the years/$ better.

[vct33]

Is Isaiah Thomas really a max guy? I'm not a hater but I don't know if I can swallow that.

His contract isn't up until the 2018 offseason, so whether or not he is worth max salary is completely immaterial to our cap situation this offseason.

I didn't say it impacted our current situation. A previous poster talked about having to find a way to pay him and Bradley in the next couple years.

[Froob]

Can IT's last year be ripped up and begin next season on a max? I'd be open to ripping up the last year and signing a 3 year max.