The anatomy of a typical Piston first quarter

duncansmithnba · Post #1 » by **duncansmithnba** » Thu May 18, 2017 4:28 pm

http://pistonpowered.com/2017/05/18/detroit-pistons-anatomy-first-quarter/

I did a breakdown on a quarter in which the Pistons scored a decent number of points and illustrated just how much has to go right for them to be even an average first quarter scoring team.

Lots of numbers and references to EV. Prepare yourself.

vic · Post #2 » by **vic** » Thu May 18, 2017 5:07 pm

Very sad story...
Nightmare to any smart pg or coach.

Chauncey used to say a bad shot is a practically a turnover.

This is why we need an infusion of skill on the team. Not confident high usage muscle bound guys.
Guys that make the shots they take, and will pass if they don't have a shot they know they can make.

Pistons absolutely need high eFG, and high a/to players.

It's better not to take a shot than to overconfidently take a shot you only "think" you can make. We learned this from the Josh Smith era.

We need a high-iq point guard that will stop all of SVGs silly experimentation into mid-range basketball hell.

Billl · Post #3 » by **Billl** » Thu May 18, 2017 7:57 pm

eh - faulty premise. The pistons average margin at the end of the first was down 0.9 points. The second quarter was actually worse at minus 1.2 . What "had to go right" for us to be average was 1 made shot or stop every other game.

So yeah, we were pretty mediocre in the 1st, horrible in the second. We actually were a pretty good 4th quarter team with essentially all the same guys doing all the same things you blame for the 1st quarter issues. They just weren't giving the same effort in the first half.

ImHeisenberg · Post #4 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Thu May 18, 2017 8:31 pm

Billl wrote:eh - faulty premise. The pistons average margin at the end of the first was down 0.9 points. The second quarter was actually worse at minus 1.2 . What "had to go right" for us to be average was 1 made shot or stop every other game.

So what had to go right is make one shot and be tied or a one point lead? Loser talk.

Invictus88 · Post #5 » by **Invictus88** » Thu May 18, 2017 9:48 pm

I like the idea of this article but it feels only a quarter finished.

I would have really liked to see season 1st quarter totals for average EV per shot and see where that ranked them vs other teams. If you are going to partly go down the stats rabbit hole then more evidence is needed to corroborate the theory that Pistons put themselves at a disadvantage in the 1st quarter due to poor EV / shot selection.

One quarter's analysis from one game feels like you are cherry-picking stats -- even if you actually aren't. I don't think you did enough to answer the question of why this is an example of a typical Piston 1st quarter.

I did actually really like the analysis of the one quarter you did analyze though

Pharaoh · Post #6 » by **Pharaoh** » Thu May 18, 2017 10:04 pm

Nice analysis of each shot and it's EV but:

These numbers mean nothing cause it's a 82 game season.

IF you wish to breakdown EVERY first quarter those numbers might show what you obviously wanted them to

Instead the numbers here don't, yet you stuck the knife in anyway.

Why?

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Billl · Post #7 » by **Billl** » Fri May 19, 2017 1:33 pm

ImHeisenberg wrote:
Billl wrote:eh - faulty premise. The pistons average margin at the end of the first was down 0.9 points. The second quarter was actually worse at minus 1.2 . What "had to go right" for us to be average was 1 made shot or stop every other game.

So what had to go right is make one shot and be tied or a one point lead? Loser talk.

Well yeah, the difference between us being below average and average in the first is literally 0.9 points. The idea that we are so far from being an average team is nonsense. It shouldn't be shocking to anyone that a team on the playoff bubble is just slightly below average. That's what fringe playoff teams are. The rest of the analysis is completely undercut by the fact that the exact same group of players is above average in the 4th.

Admitting we are pretty average doesn't mean we should be content with being average. I don't think anyone wants to be the perpetual 8th seed. The problem isn't that we get off to slow starts though. We had the same problems in every quarter. We don't have an offensive identity and our defensive effort is lacking.

Pharaoh · Post #8 » by **Pharaoh** » Sat May 20, 2017 9:51 am

Billl wrote:
ImHeisenberg wrote:
Billl wrote:eh - faulty premise. The pistons average margin at the end of the first was down 0.9 points. The second quarter was actually worse at minus 1.2 . What "had to go right" for us to be average was 1 made shot or stop every other game.

So what had to go right is make one shot and be tied or a one point lead? Loser talk.

Well yeah, the difference between us being below average and average in the first is literally 0.9 points. The idea that we are so far from being an average team is nonsense. It shouldn't be shocking to anyone that a team on the playoff bubble is just slightly below average. That's what fringe playoff teams are. The rest of the analysis is completely undercut by the fact that the exact same group of players is above average in the 4th.

Admitting we are pretty average doesn't mean we should be content with being average. I don't think anyone wants to be the perpetual 8th seed. The problem isn't that we get off to slow starts though. We had the same problems in every quarter. We don't have an offensive identity and our defensive effort is lacking.

IF memory serves at one point this season we had an above average Defensive rating...it all fell apart though

Maybe the trade rumours got to certain guys, maybe certain guys run out of gas or maybe certain guys are too passive overall...

I believe as late as the deadline the playoffs and a seed 5-8 was still a very realistic goal.

Trying to pinpoint if the 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th quarter is to blame is pointless IMO since it was a different one most nights!

All that shows is that the talent, focus & commitment required wasn't where it needed to be when we needed it the most

And since trade offers weren't what our FO expected we're unlikely to see a major infusion of talent this off-season so we have to hope the stink of failure pushes some of these guys in the right direction.

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ImHeisenberg · Post #9 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Sat May 20, 2017 2:19 pm

Pharaoh wrote:Trying to pinpoint if the 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th quarter is to blame is pointless IMO since it was a different one most nights!

Off topic, are you actually yelling these statements in your head as your write them? I don't think you've ever posted a reply on here without at least one sentence ending in an exclamation point.

Pharaoh · Post #10 » by **Pharaoh** » Sat May 20, 2017 11:16 pm

ImHeisenberg wrote:
Pharaoh wrote:Trying to pinpoint if the 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th quarter is to blame is pointless IMO since it was a different one most nights!

Off topic, are you actually yelling these statements in your head as your write them? I don't think you've ever posted a reply on here without at least one sentence ending in an exclamation point.

I thought all caps was screaming?

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ImHeisenberg · Post #11 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Sun May 21, 2017 2:41 pm

Pharaoh wrote:
ImHeisenberg wrote:
Pharaoh wrote:Trying to pinpoint if the 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th quarter is to blame is pointless IMO since it was a different one most nights!

Off topic, are you actually yelling these statements in your head as your write them? I don't think you've ever posted a reply on here without at least one sentence ending in an exclamation point.

I thought all caps was screaming?

All caps is screaming. But, the exclamation point is basically ending the sentence with an elevated sense of urgency.

Pharaoh · Post #12 » by **Pharaoh** » Sun May 21, 2017 10:00 pm

ImHeisenberg wrote:
Pharaoh wrote:
ImHeisenberg wrote:Off topic, are you actually yelling these statements in your head as your write them? I don't think you've ever posted a reply on here without at least one sentence ending in an exclamation point.

I thought all caps was screaming?

All caps is screaming. But, the exclamation point is basically ending the sentence with an elevated sense of urgency.

Sorry if that grinds your gears mate.

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ImHeisenberg · Post #13 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Mon May 22, 2017 9:29 am

Pharaoh wrote:
ImHeisenberg wrote:
Pharaoh wrote:I thought all caps was screaming?

All caps is screaming. But, the exclamation point is basically ending the sentence with an elevated sense of urgency.

Sorry if that grinds your gears mate.

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Never ground my gear. Just something unique in how you post, thought I'd ask what the intent was.

Pharaoh · Post #14 » by **Pharaoh** » Mon May 22, 2017 12:07 pm

ImHeisenberg wrote:
Pharaoh wrote:
ImHeisenberg wrote:All caps is screaming. But, the exclamation point is basically ending the sentence with an elevated sense of urgency.

Sorry if that grinds your gears mate.

Sent from my SM-J110F using RealGM mobile app

Never ground my gear. Just something unique in how you post, thought I'd ask what the intent was.

In general it would be to show I have strong feelings on the sentence before it.

Like in this thread where the author is clearly trying to show slow starts are the problem I wrote something like "every quarter is a problem!"

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