2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread III

[76ciology]

How bad is Jonathan Isaac's SF skills on offense? Seems like he doesn't have bad handles for a SF and can do simple reads and passes. Looks like it can be develop. Easier to develop than Josh Jackson's shooting?

[Negrodamus]

Also, to piggyback on my post, Thornwell produced a ridiculous amount of points for someone who is off ball and missed 6 games this season.

[HotelVitale]

And to really hone in on Josh Jackson's shooting woes, here's 60% or less FT%, 35 or greater 3pt% on 90+ 3FGA for all classes, not just freshman: http://cbbref.com/tiny/U3N5K Avery Bradley and Chandler Parsons are the only guys that really stand out as NBA players, so it can be done, in theory.

If you take away the freshman filter, you also get players like Jae Crowder, Ron Artest, Patrick Beverley, and Carlos Arroyo who all ended up as useful shooters in the NBA. Obviously shouldn't take this to be super meaningful--everyone's different, esp with regard to shooting development--but overall it seems like this demographic tends to do pretty well.

[Negrodamus]

And to really hone in on Josh Jackson's shooting woes, here's 60% or less FT%, 35 or greater 3pt% on 90+ 3FGA for all classes, not just freshman: http://cbbref.com/tiny/U3N5K Avery Bradley and Chandler Parsons are the only guys that really stand out as NBA players, so it can be done, in theory.

If you take away the freshman filter, you also get players like Jae Crowder, Ron Artest, Patrick Beverley, and Carlos Arroyo who all ended up as useful shooters in the NBA. Obviously shouldn't take this to be super meaningful--everyone's different, esp with regard to shooting development--but overall it seems like this demographic tends to do pretty well.

Not saying you're wrong, but can you link that filter to me? The link I provided did all classes, not just freshman, so I should see Artest somewhere in there. Maybe I overlooked him.

[HotelVitale]

How bad is Jonathan Isaac's SF skills on offense? Seems like he doesn't have bad handles for a SF and can do simple reads and passes. Looks like it can be develop. Easier to develop than Josh Jackson's shooting?

Nothing's bad about his skillset per se, the problem with him as a SF prospect is that he just didn't do very much except take open jumpers and dunk or put in putbacks/cuts against smaller players.

I doubt that Isaac will ever be creating for himself from the perimeter in the NBA, at least not outside of weird end-of-clock situations. He has skills enough to pump fake and attack a closeout (though he's not very good at anything but straight line drives), and he can hit turnarounds and open midrange shots. He looks to me like he'll always be a lower usage player, filling in gaps if the defense leaves them.

As a sidenote, I think folks have been going a little overboard with him given his body--he's 6'10 with a 7'0 wingspan, and he's extremely skinny, in the 200-205lbs range. If Jackson's 6'8/6'10/205 worries you, I'm not sure why Isaac's size is a big asset. Maybe if he had a freaky 7'4 wingspan or something but he's not totally convincing as a SF prospect and seems thin and meh as a small-ball PF. Don't hate him, just think people have been getting carried away with his potential.

[HotelVitale]

And to really hone in on Josh Jackson's shooting woes, here's 60% or less FT%, 35 or greater 3pt% on 90+ 3FGA for all classes, not just freshman: http://cbbref.com/tiny/U3N5K Avery Bradley and Chandler Parsons are the only guys that really stand out as NBA players, so it can be done, in theory.

If you take away the freshman filter, you also get players like Jae Crowder, Ron Artest, Patrick Beverley, and Carlos Arroyo who all ended up as useful shooters in the NBA. Obviously shouldn't take this to be super meaningful--everyone's different, esp with regard to shooting development--but overall it seems like this demographic tends to do pretty well.

Not saying you're wrong, but can you link that filter to me? The link I provided did all classes, not just freshman, so I should see Artest somewhere in there. Maybe I overlooked him.

I clicked on your first link and added all classes:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1993&year_max=2017&conf_id=&school_id=&class_is_fr=Y&class_is_so=Y&class_is_jr=Y&class_is_sr=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&pos_is_c=Y&games_type=A&qual=&c1stat=fg3_pct&c1comp=gt&c1val=.35&c2stat=ft_pct&c2comp=lt&c2val=.65&c3stat=fg3a&c3comp=gt&c3val=90&c4stat=&c4comp=&c4val=&order_by=pts&order_by_asc=&offset=0
EDIT: looks like this includes up to 65% on FTs, hence the longer list.

[agiaco]

I'm going to say it right now. If we draft Malik Monk at pick 3, down the line people will be eating crow on ripping the pick to shreds. I think he's a perfect fit for the squad as it currently stands. That said, I still try to move down a few spots to get him or move up to draft him with a second pick. He's my favorite choice right now which is maybe strange.

[Negrodamus]

If you take away the freshman filter, you also get players like Jae Crowder, Ron Artest, Patrick Beverley, and Carlos Arroyo who all ended up as useful shooters in the NBA. Obviously shouldn't take this to be super meaningful--everyone's different, esp with regard to shooting development--but overall it seems like this demographic tends to do pretty well.

Not saying you're wrong, but can you link that filter to me? The link I provided did all classes, not just freshman, so I should see Artest somewhere in there. Maybe I overlooked him.

I clicked on your first link and added all classes:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1993&year_max=2017&conf_id=&school_id=&class_is_fr=Y&class_is_so=Y&class_is_jr=Y&class_is_sr=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&pos_is_c=Y&games_type=A&qual=&c1stat=fg3_pct&c1comp=gt&c1val=.35&c2stat=ft_pct&c2comp=lt&c2val=.65&c3stat=fg3a&c3comp=gt&c3val=90&c4stat=&c4comp=&c4val=&order_by=pts&order_by_asc=&offset=0
EDIT: looks like this includes up to 65% on FTs, hence the longer list.

Oh yea, I wanted to bring it down to around where he shot from the FT line. To be fair, I also posted a favorable stat grouping that he's in shortly after in this thread.

The players that fall around his shooting numbers that are in the NBA are very limited in the link I posted. Avery Bradley and Chandler Parsons are the only ones to shoot that poorly from the line and become good shooters in the NBA. Like I said, it's not impossible, but these numbers aren't terribly promising.

[HotelVitale]

[Oh yea, I wanted to bring it down to around where he shot from the FT line. To be fair, I also posted a favorable stat grouping that he's in shortly after in this thread. The players that fall around his shooting numbers that are in the NBA are very limited in the link I posted. Avery Bradley and Chandler Parsons are the only ones to shoot that poorly from the line and become good shooters in the NBA. Like I said, it's not impossible, but these numbers aren't terribly promising.

We'd have to do more work to get to that conclusion. At a quick glance I don't remember seeing many NBA seasoned players at all in the list so it doesn't seem fair to say that those who do make it to the NBA generally remain bad shooters. Of course it's also possible that some of them never made it to the NBA (or didn't stick) precisely because they didn't improve their general shooting, but I'd guess that it's much more true that most of those players weren't NBA material to begin with. Don't have time to do a more thorough look now but we'd need one to pull any kind of precedent from the list.

[Negrodamus]

[Oh yea, I wanted to bring it down to around where he shot from the FT line. To be fair, I also posted a favorable stat grouping that he's in shortly after in this thread. The players that fall around his shooting numbers that are in the NBA are very limited in the link I posted. Avery Bradley and Chandler Parsons are the only ones to shoot that poorly from the line and become good shooters in the NBA. Like I said, it's not impossible, but these numbers aren't terribly promising.

We'd have to do more work to get to that conclusion. At a quick glance I don't remember seeing many NBA seasoned players at all in the list so it doesn't seem fair to say that those who do make it to the NBA generally remain bad shooters. Of course it's also possible that some of them never made it to the NBA (or didn't stick) precisely because they didn't improve their general shooting, but I'd guess that it's much more true that most of those players weren't NBA material to begin with. Don't have time to do a more thorough look now but we'd need one to pull any kind of precedent from the list.

Okay, I adjusted the list to 10% better at FT% (66% or worse) than what Josh Jackson (56%) did last year. Also made the 3pt% at what he had (37% or better). Minutes played at a little under what JJ played: at least 900. and I made it Josh Jackson's 3PA on the dot: 90 or more.

http://cbbref.com/tiny/FhuFp

NBA current players/former prospects/current prospects on the list:

DeAndre Kane
Jeffrey Taylor
Josh Jackson (obviously)
Wayne Selden
Justise Winslow
David Lighty
Rodney Purvis
VJ Beachem (current prospect)
Isaiah Cousins
Avery Bradley
Michael Gbinije
Jaquon Parker
DeAndre Liggins

At >= 35%

Keith Appling
Jae Crowder
Joe Harris
Darington Hobson
Austin Rivers
Rodney Hood (at Miss State)
TJ McConnell
Chris Crawford

Of these players, Hood, McConnell, Crowder, Liggins, Winslow are really the only ones that are relevant in the NBA. Rodney Hood has the closest size comparison to Jackson (similar height and wingspan). Still, he shot almost 10% better from FT (65%) on a smaller sample size (1.3 FTA per game). After his transfer year, he shot 80% at Duke on 3.9 attempts per game.

[Sixerscan]

I take your point but using the fact that he shot well from 3 as part of the case why he won't be good is weird to me.

[Negrodamus]

I take your point but using the fact that he shot well from 3 as part of the case why he won't be good is weird to me.

Well, I'm not really forming a case here. If we draft him, then I'll be on board with it. He showed up in my STL% and BLK% one on the previous page, so I'm also looking at situations where he's valuable. But I'm trying to match players that hit from 3 in college but had poor FT% and how that translates to the next level. There are some that have persevered (Bradley, Hood, Crowder) and many who have not.

[Negrodamus]

Here's another fun, yet potentially damning one for Dennis Smith Jr:
AST% over 30
STL% over 3
FTA over 200
3FGA over 150

http://cbbref.com/tiny/nEvvs

Napier, Smart, Russ Smith, and Jaylen Adams are the only ones, along with DSJ, who are in the NBA or have real aspirations to be in the NBA. TBF, DSJ is the only one who is a freshman.

[LloydFree]

I take your point but using the fact that he shot well from 3 as part of the case why he won't be good is weird to me.

Noticed that when it was posted, but wanted to wait to see if anybody else would call that out.

[PhilasFinest]

And to really hone in on Josh Jackson's shooting woes, here's 60% or less FT%, 35 or greater 3pt% on 90+ 3FGA for all classes, not just freshman:

http://cbbref.com/tiny/U3N5K

Avery Bradley and Chandler Parsons are the only guys that really stand out as NBA players, so it can be done, in theory.

Terrence Williams!

What happened to that dude? I thought he was gonna be a player in the league.....guess his head never allowed for him to adapt and develop.

[Negrodamus]

Final one. Built it around Jonathan Isaac with stats that would go back to before the advanced stats:
Greater than 1.1 SPG
Greater than 1.4 BPG
Greater than 80 3FGA in a season
Greater than .600 TS%

http://cbbref.com/tiny/boKJp

So... we need to draft Derrick White.

[PhilasFinest]

Final one. Built it around Jonathan Isaac with stats that would go back to before the advanced stats:
Greater than 1.1 SPG
Greater than 1.4 BPG
Greater than 80 3FGA in a season
Greater than .600 TS%

http://cbbref.com/tiny/boKJp

So... we need to draft Derrick White.

Yea White looks like he could be a steal. Would certainly try to get back into the 1st round and nab him if possible.

[Unbreakable99]

I demand Jackson one up Tatum and make 19 3s in a row. I want to see clips of him shooting and making them. Don't Ben Simmons me and just show footage of him passing. If the video isn't uploaded by tomorrow that means Jackson is afraid. Lol.

[Negrodamus]

I think I talked about him earlier in the year, but Jacobi Boykins should be on our radar for a second round pick/possibly a camp body. Not sure if he's staying in the draft, but he's got some pretty impressive numbers.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jacobi-boykins-1.html

[Negrodamus]

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