gardenofsound wrote:Ice Man wrote:Bandit King wrote:Trade him to philly for saric and the 3rd pick!
If those guys turn out well, we could be a .500 team by 2020. Should that excite me?
Forgive me if you've said in another post, but are you against blowing the team up, or is it the particular return mentioned in Bandit King's post that you're not a fan of?
We're a .500 team now, and likely to be one again next year if no changes. The 2018 offseason doesn't promise much, if anything, and the 2019 offseason will be when Butler gets paid or walks away... with not much else to look forward to on the horizon. Should that excite you?
The 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 Bulls were both .500 teams, but at least there was a clear direction they were going in with a group of young players in Noah, Rose, Gibson, Deng, etc growing into a really solid core. That core delivered two straight 1 seeds starting the following season and took the team to the Eastern Conference Finals. The 2012 team is still a "who knows" year, but at least there was hope that they could actually win it all.
Right now, not one single player is showing the type of promise the aforementioned four were showing by the 2009-2010 season.
I'd be more excited about building a core of players that can take the team well beyond where they are now given 4-6 years of drafting and development. If nothing else, those Baby Bulls teams were exciting to watch, particularly once Ben Wallace was traded away.
I decided to do a number of comparisons between 2009-10 Noah, Rose, Gibson, and Deng and the current group of 25 and younger players (Niko, Zipser, MCW, Valentine, Grant, Felicio, Portis, Canaan, Payne, and Lauvergne). I looked at some major grouping of stats and ranked all 14 players (the four from the past and the 10 current guys). Here are the results:
FG% - Felicio, Noah, Gibson, Rose, Portis, Deng, Grant, Niko, Lauvergne, Zipser, MCW, Canaan, Valentine, Payne
3P% - Deng, Grant, Valentine, Niko, Portis, Zipser, Payne, Lauvergne, Rose, Canaan, MCW (I left out Felicio, Gibson, and Noah.)
eFG% - Felicio, Portis, Niko, Grant, Noah, Rose, Gibson, Deng, Valentine, Zipser, Canaan, Lauvergne, Payne, MCW
FTAP36 - Deng, Rose, Noah, MCW, Felicio, Gibson, Niko, Grant, Lauvergne, Portis, Canaan, Zipser, Payne, Valentine
FT% - Canaan, Grant, Valentine, Zipser, Niko, Rose, Deng, MCW, Noah, Portis, Gibson, Felicio, Lauvergne, Payne
RP36 - Noah, Felicio, Portis, Lauvergne, Gibson, Niko, Deng, MCW, Valentine, Zipser, Payne, Grant, Rose, Canaan
AP36 - Rose, MCW, Grant, Payne, Lauvergne, Noah, Valentine, Canaan, Deng, Niko, Zipser, Felicio, Portis, Gibson
SP36 - MCW, Grant, Canaan, Valentine, Niko, Payne, Lauvergne, Felicio, Deng, Gibson, Rose, Zipser, Portis, Noah
BP36 - Noah, Gibson, Niko, MCW, Deng, Zipser, Felicio, Portis, Grant, Valentine, Rose, Canaan, Payne, Lauvergne
TOVP36 - Felicio, Canaan, Portis, Grant, Zipser, Niko, Valentine, Deng, Gibson, Noah, Lauvergne, Rose, MCW, Payne
PFP36 - Rose, Lauvergne, Deng, Canaan, Niko, Valentine, Zipser, Grant, Portis, Payne, Noah, Felicio, MCW, Gibson
PP36 - Rose, Deng, Niko, Portis, Payne, Lauvergne, Grant, Noah, MCW, Gibson, Canaan, Felicio, Valentine, Zipser
ORtg - Felicio, Grant, Noah, Portis, Niko, Rose, Deng, Gibson, Canaan, Zipser, Valentine, Lauvergne, MCW, Payne
DRtg - Noah, Gibson, MCW, Niko, Deng, Lauvergne, Portis, Felicio, Valentine, Grant, Zipser, Rose, Payne, Canaan
PER - Rose, Noah, Deng, Felicio, Portis, Niko, Gibson, Grant, Lauvergne, MCW, Canaan, Valentine, Zipser, Payne
TS% - Felicio, Noah, Grant, Niko, Portis, Rose, Deng, Gibson, Zipser, Valentine, Canaan, Lauvergne, MCW, Payne
WS/48 - Felicio, Noah, Grant, Portis, Niko, Deng, Gibson, Rose, Canaan, Valentine, Zipser, Lauvergne, MCW, Payne
BPM - Noah, Rose, Niko, Deng, Felicio, Grant, Gibson, MCW, Valentine, Portis, Canaan, Zipser, Lauvergne, Payne
VORP - Noah, Rose, Deng, Niko, Gibson, Felicio, Grant, MCW, Lauvergne, Valentine, Canaan, Payne, Portis, Zipser
If you take all of that data and assign points to it so that whoever led each category gets 1 point, second place gets 2, all the way down to whoever came in last getting 14 points, and then add up all the points for all that data, here's how the players rank (lower score is better):
Noah - 94
Niko - 96
Deng - 101
Grant - 107
Felicio - 111
Rose - 113
Portis - 132
Gibson - 147
MCW - 166
Valentine - 169
Lauvergne - 173
Canaan - 175
Zipser - 187
Payne - 219
So obviously, this is an inexact science, but I found it interesting nonetheless. Keep in mind the sample size is very small for Payne (11 games), Lauvergne (20 games), and Canaan (39 games).
I think this shows that we have a group of young players so large that a few of them could definitely still develop into a pretty solid core. Saying that not a single player is showing even close to the promise of Rose, Noah, Deng, and Gibson back in 2009-10 is pretty false, in my opinion. Those four are better than most of our young players, but there are a couple who are showing decent amounts of promise and potential, relatively speaking.
I think we're on the right track but I think we need to trade Jimmy and add to this core. If just a couple of these guys develop into a core pieces and we add another young core piece or two from a Jimmy trade, plus all the FA cap money we'd free up by losing him and probably D-Wade, I think we'd be setting ourselves up quite nicely.