Snapbacks and Handshakes: The 2017 Draft (Raps pick #23)

[OAKLEY_2]

That's fine, but I can tell you that stretch bigs are rare in this league. About 2/3s come from the lottery. Stretch bigs that can also play plus defense are on a really short list. The moneyball approach would be to bring back 2Pat and let Serge walk, probably not happening just given the messaging from Casey and Ujiri the last few weeks. Siakam right now is more of a 5 and his jump shot is slow and not something I'd rely on going forward. They'll probably have to use him as their 2Pat replacement just to keep their payroll from going over into the lux tax, or risk going even smaller with PJ or Carroll at the 4.

This team is kind of a mess right now in terms of their outlook. They want more 3s, but are expecting the growth to come from guys who haven't proven they can hit 3s and a change of pace. As it is, they have two of the better two-way stretch bigs bird rights. If they want to compete this way, re-sign both and worry about the lux tax later. Hoping to find a 2Pat replacement in the draft is going to be really hard from the slot we're picking. This draft is loaded with stretch bigs, but the odds suggest that we're unlikely to find a rotation player at our pick. And a lot of mistakes are made when you go into the draft looking for specific skillsets over talent.

Both these guys can hit the 3 and have over 7 foot wingspan

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

i would honestly try to get another late pick and draft both of them, play them next to each other and ride off into the sunset with Siakam, Ibaka and Poeltl sprinkled in

Swanigan has huge potential offensively, but he's going to be atrocious on defense. One of the slowest guys I've ever seen on a basketball court. It actually stands out if you watch for a couple minutes. Could be a beast on offense and on the boards though.

Slow up and down will be what kills the deal. Get ready for a 905 project.

See now that Rabb has dropped. Would be fine taking him. Hope Stack is still in 905.

[PhilBlackson]

Swanigan is a defensive liability and Rabb is a player from another time...the day of the post up big man are all but obsolete and Rabb's lateral speed, ballhandling and outside shooting really aren't that impressive at all, he made a huge mistake going back to school this past year. I would pass on both but if I had to choose I'd actually take Caleb.

[PhilBlackson]

Also I'm not sure I'm as hot on the idea of trading down to dump Carroll, personally I'd prefer trading Corey or JV for a couple of 2nd rdrs but if we were really set on trying to unload Carroll I would target PHI...

Because if I'm PHI I'm doing that deal all day...I would draft Jackson with my #3 and Evans with #23 and have the best draft of any team out there. That would be a huge haul imo.

Evans
Korkmaz/Luwwau
Jackson
Simmons
Embiid

Daaaamn I would seriously consider becoming a Sixers' fan haha

[ATLTimekeeper]

I know we're talking about someone's livelihood but don't sign 2Pat. You can slot in Siakam or even Jacob at the PF. You can also put in Carroll or Tucker for small ball. Remember you're looking for a bench guy, not a starter. Then draft one of the 3+D prospects available - either a SF, a PF, a SF/PF or a PF/C. For PG, SG and C we will be fine.

I like 2Pat. He loves this city. He plays good positional defence and can be a threat. Just because he partied when they lost doesn't mean he didn't care, that was just his way of handling the pain. But from a business point of view it doesn't make sense to pay him the money he can command when you can fill his role internally and draft someone who can fill his role in the future for millions less. There is no way he's re-sigining here, even if Lowry leaves. Draft a Bolden or Wilson and work on their bodies and their mind. Casey is good at instilling work ethic: Powell, DD, Lowry, Siakam, Wright, etc.

There will be 36 picks taken after that. Odds pretty much indicate only 5-7 players taken beyond our spot will make an NBA rotation. The Raptors should be focussing on finding one of those 5-7 players, not hoping one can replace 2Pat.

[Anatomize]

Watching Swanigan doesn't really impress me thus far.. I'll have to see a bit more. Looks like prime Brian Cook out there.

[PhilBlackson]

I know we're talking about someone's livelihood but don't sign 2Pat. You can slot in Siakam or even Jacob at the PF. You can also put in Carroll or Tucker for small ball. Remember you're looking for a bench guy, not a starter. Then draft one of the 3+D prospects available - either a SF, a PF, a SF/PF or a PF/C. For PG, SG and C we will be fine.

I like 2Pat. He loves this city. He plays good positional defence and can be a threat. Just because he partied when they lost doesn't mean he didn't care, that was just his way of handling the pain. But from a business point of view it doesn't make sense to pay him the money he can command when you can fill his role internally and draft someone who can fill his role in the future for millions less. There is no way he's re-sigining here, even if Lowry leaves. Draft a Bolden or Wilson and work on their bodies and their mind. Casey is good at instilling work ethic: Powell, DD, Lowry, Siakam, Wright, etc.

There will be 36 picks taken after that. Odds pretty much indicate only 5-7 players taken beyond our spot will make an NBA rotation. The Raptors should be focussing on finding one of those 5-7 players, not hoping one can replace 2Pat.

A team should never draft thinking how a pick can help them NOW when they won't contribute anything meaningful until the FUTURE.

The roster and it's needs could and likely will be completely different in 3-4 years when a rookie will be able to contribute in a meaningful way and it's also a free roll of the dice to find a high level player. The NBA is LOADED with role players, there are only so many all-star spots lol finding players that fit a role is easy there's a ton of players who do just that. The incredibly difficult thing is adding TALENT because that of course comes at a premium and will only get tougher with the new CBA and the max dollars incentives to try and keep players "home".

IMO it's always BPA, always try to get the best possible talent you can and develop them. The hell with positions and need. You think the Lakers regret trading Vlade for Kobe when they already had Eddie Jones on the roster?! lol Of course not and that's the idea. Do your best to find someone either with the physical tools or skill base to possibly be an elite player with development and worry about the fit later.

[Mikistan]

OK OK Back to Bolden, I'm out on Swanigan

Some of Bolden's dunks are huge in that video

[Patman]

I know we're talking about someone's livelihood but don't sign 2Pat. You can slot in Siakam or even Jacob at the PF. You can also put in Carroll or Tucker for small ball. Remember you're looking for a bench guy, not a starter. Then draft one of the 3+D prospects available - either a SF, a PF, a SF/PF or a PF/C. For PG, SG and C we will be fine.

I like 2Pat. He loves this city. He plays good positional defence and can be a threat. Just because he partied when they lost doesn't mean he didn't care, that was just his way of handling the pain. But from a business point of view it doesn't make sense to pay him the money he can command when you can fill his role internally and draft someone who can fill his role in the future for millions less. There is no way he's re-sigining here, even if Lowry leaves. Draft a Bolden or Wilson and work on their bodies and their mind. Casey is good at instilling work ethic: Powell, DD, Lowry, Siakam, Wright, etc.

There will be 36 picks taken after that. Odds pretty much indicate only 5-7 players taken beyond our spot will make an NBA rotation. The Raptors should be focussing on finding one of those 5-7 players, not hoping one can replace 2Pat.

A team should never draft thinking how a pick can help them NOW when they won't contribute anything meaningful until the FUTURE.

The roster and it's needs could and likely will be completely different in 3-4 years when a rookie will be able to contribute in a meaningful way and it's also a free roll of the dice to find a high level player. The NBA is LOADED with role players, there are only so many all-star spots lol finding players that fit a role is easy there's a ton of players who do just that. The incredibly difficult thing is adding TALENT because that of course comes at a premium and will only get tougher with the new CBA and the max dollars incentives to try and keep players "home".

IMO it's always BPA, always try to get the best possible talent you can and develop them. The hell with positions and need. You think the Lakers regret trading Vlade for Kobe when they already had Eddie Jones on the roster?! lol Of course not and that's the idea. Do your best to find someone either with the physical tools or skill base to possibly be an elite player with development and worry about the fit later.

This. If you're going to draft based on need, then it should be somebody ready to contribute right away. Team needs can change quickly.

[Kevin Willis]

I know we're talking about someone's livelihood but don't sign 2Pat. You can slot in Siakam or even Jacob at the PF. You can also put in Carroll or Tucker for small ball. Remember you're looking for a bench guy, not a starter. Then draft one of the 3+D prospects available - either a SF, a PF, a SF/PF or a PF/C. For PG, SG and C we will be fine.

I like 2Pat. He loves this city. He plays good positional defence and can be a threat. Just because he partied when they lost doesn't mean he didn't care, that was just his way of handling the pain. But from a business point of view it doesn't make sense to pay him the money he can command when you can fill his role internally and draft someone who can fill his role in the future for millions less. There is no way he's re-sigining here, even if Lowry leaves. Draft a Bolden or Wilson and work on their bodies and their mind. Casey is good at instilling work ethic: Powell, DD, Lowry, Siakam, Wright, etc.

There will be 36 picks taken after that. Odds pretty much indicate only 5-7 players taken beyond our spot will make an NBA rotation. The Raptors should be focussing on finding one of those 5-7 players, not hoping one can replace 2Pat.

Except Bolden and Wilson are some of the better picks period in our range not considering position. The fact they fill a need is a bonus. It's like picking another PG just because he's good at 23. It's 23. The chances are the PGs on the current roster are going to be better. Look I understand your train of thought at the higher draft spots where there are differences in talent. If someone is a better talent then of course you select them regardless of need. But at 23 you're going to get a bunch of players on the same level and if you can fill a need at the same time then do it. Remember opportunity dictates success. Drafting a 4th PG or a 4th SG means the pick has less chance of success than drafting 2nd or 3rd stretch 4.

[Kevin Willis]

There will be 36 picks taken after that. Odds pretty much indicate only 5-7 players taken beyond our spot will make an NBA rotation. The Raptors should be focussing on finding one of those 5-7 players, not hoping one can replace 2Pat.

A team should never draft thinking how a pick can help them NOW when they won't contribute anything meaningful until the FUTURE.

The roster and it's needs could and likely will be completely different in 3-4 years when a rookie will be able to contribute in a meaningful way and it's also a free roll of the dice to find a high level player. The NBA is LOADED with role players, there are only so many all-star spots lol finding players that fit a role is easy there's a ton of players who do just that. The incredibly difficult thing is adding TALENT because that of course comes at a premium and will only get tougher with the new CBA and the max dollars incentives to try and keep players "home".

IMO it's always BPA, always try to get the best possible talent you can and develop them. The hell with positions and need. You think the Lakers regret trading Vlade for Kobe when they already had Eddie Jones on the roster?! lol Of course not and that's the idea. Do your best to find someone either with the physical tools or skill base to possibly be an elite player with development and worry about the fit later.

This. If you're going to draft based on need, then it should be somebody ready to contribute right away. Team needs can change quickly.

I disagree with both you and Phil and I explained why above. But it's a board, everyone is entitled to their opinion. Whomever we pick at 23 will not be part of the rotation next year - or at the start at least. Have to earn minutes with Casey.

[Patman]

A team should never draft thinking how a pick can help them NOW when they won't contribute anything meaningful until the FUTURE.

The roster and it's needs could and likely will be completely different in 3-4 years when a rookie will be able to contribute in a meaningful way and it's also a free roll of the dice to find a high level player. The NBA is LOADED with role players, there are only so many all-star spots lol finding players that fit a role is easy there's a ton of players who do just that. The incredibly difficult thing is adding TALENT because that of course comes at a premium and will only get tougher with the new CBA and the max dollars incentives to try and keep players "home".

IMO it's always BPA, always try to get the best possible talent you can and develop them. The hell with positions and need. You think the Lakers regret trading Vlade for Kobe when they already had Eddie Jones on the roster?! lol Of course not and that's the idea. Do your best to find someone either with the physical tools or skill base to possibly be an elite player with development and worry about the fit later.

This. If you're going to draft based on need, then it should be somebody ready to contribute right away. Team needs can change quickly.

I disagree with both you and Phil and I explained why above. But it's a board, everyone is entitled to their opinion. Whomever we pick at 23 will not be part of the rotation next year - or at the start at least. Have to earn minutes with Casey.

I actually think we're in agreement here. I'm not saying to force-feed minutes to any rookie, even if they fill a need. I'm saying that if a rookie is too raw to deserve minutes, then we might as well draft BPA.

[Psubs]

A team should never draft thinking how a pick can help them NOW when they won't contribute anything meaningful until the FUTURE.

The roster and it's needs could and likely will be completely different in 3-4 years when a rookie will be able to contribute in a meaningful way and it's also a free roll of the dice to find a high level player. The NBA is LOADED with role players, there are only so many all-star spots lol finding players that fit a role is easy there's a ton of players who do just that. The incredibly difficult thing is adding TALENT because that of course comes at a premium and will only get tougher with the new CBA and the max dollars incentives to try and keep players "home".

IMO it's always BPA, always try to get the best possible talent you can and develop them. The hell with positions and need. You think the Lakers regret trading Vlade for Kobe when they already had Eddie Jones on the roster?! lol Of course not and that's the idea. Do your best to find someone either with the physical tools or skill base to possibly be an elite player with development and worry about the fit later.

This. If you're going to draft based on need, then it should be somebody ready to contribute right away. Team needs can change quickly.

I disagree with both you and Phil and I explained why above. But it's a board, everyone is entitled to their opinion. Whomever we pick at 23 will not be part of the rotation next year - or at the start at least. Have to earn minutes with Casey.

Siakam started in his rookie year.

[Mr.Raptorsingh]

I feel like the Raps draft pick will have to play minutes next season when you look at the team's cap situation. They have to hit on this pick imo.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I know we're talking about someone's livelihood but don't sign 2Pat. You can slot in Siakam or even Jacob at the PF. You can also put in Carroll or Tucker for small ball. Remember you're looking for a bench guy, not a starter. Then draft one of the 3+D prospects available - either a SF, a PF, a SF/PF or a PF/C. For PG, SG and C we will be fine.

I like 2Pat. He loves this city. He plays good positional defence and can be a threat. Just because he partied when they lost doesn't mean he didn't care, that was just his way of handling the pain. But from a business point of view it doesn't make sense to pay him the money he can command when you can fill his role internally and draft someone who can fill his role in the future for millions less. There is no way he's re-sigining here, even if Lowry leaves. Draft a Bolden or Wilson and work on their bodies and their mind. Casey is good at instilling work ethic: Powell, DD, Lowry, Siakam, Wright, etc.

There will be 36 picks taken after that. Odds pretty much indicate only 5-7 players taken beyond our spot will make an NBA rotation. The Raptors should be focussing on finding one of those 5-7 players, not hoping one can replace 2Pat.

Except Bolden and Wilson are some of the better picks period in our range not considering position. The fact they fill a need is a bonus. It's like picking another PG just because he's good at 23. It's 23. The chances are the PGs on the current roster are going to be better. Look I understand your train of thought at the higher draft spots where there are differences in talent. If someone is a better talent then of course you select them regardless of need. But at 23 you're going to get a bunch of players on the same level and if you can fill a need at the same time then do it. Remember opportunity dictates success. Drafting a 4th PG or a 4th SG means the pick has less chance of success than drafting 2nd or 3rd stretch 4.

I would draft for fit in the lottery more than I would later in the draft. The example of Norman Powell shows why BPA is the best method. He was our 3rd string SG, proved good enough in year 1 to make the back-up SG expendable and we used him in a trade to upgrade a need elsewhere. In year two he was eventually deemed good enough to start at SF and he ended up helping win a series for us. If they can play, they'll show it in SL, Training Camp, practice, Dleague, as an injury replacement, etc. Later on in the draft it's just a bad idea to narrow your lens further when the pickings will naturally be slimmer.

[Kevin Willis]

This. If you're going to draft based on need, then it should be somebody ready to contribute right away. Team needs can change quickly.

I disagree with both you and Phil and I explained why above. But it's a board, everyone is entitled to their opinion. Whomever we pick at 23 will not be part of the rotation next year - or at the start at least. Have to earn minutes with Casey.

Siakam started in his rookie year.

He was lucky - haha. Lost our starting PF in training camp and didn't want to disturb the rotation.

[Kevin Willis]

There will be 36 picks taken after that. Odds pretty much indicate only 5-7 players taken beyond our spot will make an NBA rotation. The Raptors should be focussing on finding one of those 5-7 players, not hoping one can replace 2Pat.

Except Bolden and Wilson are some of the better picks period in our range not considering position. The fact they fill a need is a bonus. It's like picking another PG just because he's good at 23. It's 23. The chances are the PGs on the current roster are going to be better. Look I understand your train of thought at the higher draft spots where there are differences in talent. If someone is a better talent then of course you select them regardless of need. But at 23 you're going to get a bunch of players on the same level and if you can fill a need at the same time then do it. Remember opportunity dictates success. Drafting a 4th PG or a 4th SG means the pick has less chance of success than drafting 2nd or 3rd stretch 4.

I would draft for fit in the lottery more than I would later in the draft. The example of Norman Powell shows why BPA is the best method. He was our 3rd string SG, proved good enough in year 1 to make the back-up SG expendable and we used him in a trade to upgrade a need elsewhere. In year two he was eventually deemed good enough to start at SF and he ended up helping win a series for us. If they can play, they'll show it in SL, Training Camp, practice, Dleague, as an injury replacement, etc. Later on in the draft it's just a bad idea to narrow your lens further when the pickings will naturally be slimmer.

Yes and no. We traded for the opportunity to get Powell. They felt he was a possible first round pick in the second round. Sort of like Bruno where that was there guy, the difference they got Powell later than expected and Bruno earlier than expected. In the lottery there are talent tiers so you get the most talented / BPA like drafting Fultz even though you have IT because he's so talented. Later on it's more unclear. Draftexpress has the following in the 20s:

Harry Giles
Rodions Kurucs
Hartenstein
Leaf
Jeanne
Ferguson
Lydon
Wilson
Rabb

Is there any one player that's a tier ahead of the other? Hartenstein - Jeanne? Leaf - Lydon? Rabb - Wilson?

Now the lottery top 10:

Fultz
Ball

Jackson
Tatum
Fox
Monk

Isaac
Smith
Markannen

Collins

There are tiers there. Fultz is better than Smith. Jackson is better than Isaac. Isaac is better than Collins. If I'm 2 I'm taking Ball not Smith if I want to keep my job. At 20 if I take Giles or Rabb people wouldn't be shocked. But if I need an old school rebounding PF I should probably take Rabb. Don't force feed minutes to someone who will not play.

[deeps6x]

interesting, does he have the foot speed to stay with guys at small forward in the NBA?

at 6'10 SF hes gotta defend Durant, will that ever work you think?

No he doesn't have the lateral quickness to guard on the perimeter. He has trouble in the PnR too. He's also not very strong but he's young so you can assume that gets better.

Yeah I dunno - i understand the whole picking role players and NBA ready skill

but i think i would ALWAYS pick players who can impact the game on every single possession- whether it be on offense or defense - if the aren't two way players, or playmakers/gamers all over the court, you can always sign some veteran who alread pidgeon holed himself a spot in the league.

the more i look at other prospects the more i like Bolden's physical profile along with stats hes putting up
"At 6’10” and 215 pounds with at least a 7’3” wingspan, Bolden has the physical and athletic attributes to play either forward spot at the next level, and defend multiple positions. Whil shooting over 4 3's per game on 40+ percent."

I'm actually going to talk about Bolden less now so no other teams pick him, keep the hype low

I'd take Bolden with a second, but definitely not with our first. Bolden is like the 2 years older, skinnier version of Bam Adebayo. I've seen what Bam can do at Kentucky. Even Bam is a long shot to go first round.

[HeadtopChunes]

No he doesn't have the lateral quickness to guard on the perimeter. He has trouble in the PnR too. He's also not very strong but he's young so you can assume that gets better.

Yeah I dunno - i understand the whole picking role players and NBA ready skill

but i think i would ALWAYS pick players who can impact the game on every single possession- whether it be on offense or defense - if the aren't two way players, or playmakers/gamers all over the court, you can always sign some veteran who alread pidgeon holed himself a spot in the league.

the more i look at other prospects the more i like Bolden's physical profile along with stats hes putting up
"At 6’10” and 215 pounds with at least a 7’3” wingspan, Bolden has the physical and athletic attributes to play either forward spot at the next level, and defend multiple positions. Whil shooting over 4 3's per game on 40+ percent."

I'm actually going to talk about Bolden less now so no other teams pick him, keep the hype low

I'd take Bolden with a second, but definitely not with our first. Bolden is like the 2 years older, skinnier version of Bam Adebayo. I've seen what Bam can do at Kentucky. Even Bam is a long shot to go first round.

Reminds me more of a Jumbo T Ross

[Patman]

Yeah I dunno - i understand the whole picking role players and NBA ready skill

but i think i would ALWAYS pick players who can impact the game on every single possession- whether it be on offense or defense - if the aren't two way players, or playmakers/gamers all over the court, you can always sign some veteran who alread pidgeon holed himself a spot in the league.

the more i look at other prospects the more i like Bolden's physical profile along with stats hes putting up
"At 6’10” and 215 pounds with at least a 7’3” wingspan, Bolden has the physical and athletic attributes to play either forward spot at the next level, and defend multiple positions. Whil shooting over 4 3's per game on 40+ percent."

I'm actually going to talk about Bolden less now so no other teams pick him, keep the hype low

I'd rather take a very good supporting player rather than a mediocre go-to guy. There are a lot of guys that were prep or college stars, but are not good enough to be a go-to guy in the NBA, and also struggle to be a role player. For example, I'd rather have a Danny Green or Nic Batum than an OJ Mayo or Rudy Gay.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Yes and no. We traded for the opportunity to get Powell. They felt he was a possible first round pick in the second round. Sort of like Bruno where that was there guy, the difference they got Powell later than expected and Bruno earlier than expected. In the lottery there are talent tiers so you get the most talented / BPA like drafting Fultz even though you have IT because he's so talented. Later on it's more unclear. Draftexpress has the following in the 20s:

There are tiers there. Fultz is better than Smith. Jackson is better than Isaac. Isaac is better than Collins. If I'm 2 I'm taking Ball not Smith if I want to keep my job. At 20 if I take Giles or Rabb people wouldn't be shocked. But if I need an old school rebounding PF I should probably take Rabb. Don't force feed minutes to someone who will not play.

Tiers are often just fiction, but we all do it to try and mitigate risk. If you're in the lottery because you have little talent and young players are going to get minutes regardless, take the complimentary piece that is going to have the best possible opportunity to succeed with what you already have. The only case this shouldn't work is if you're doing a complete rebuild and the talent you have is ticketed out of town.

Anyway, once you get past, like 15 all bets are off. Just find talent wherever you can get it. I don't care where Powell or Bruno were drafted, the point is that both had a pretty similar chance of succeeding.