Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[Dat2U]

If we don't resign Bogdonavich, I'm willing to reevaluate that trade. Getting rid of Nicholson's contract and taking back a 1 year rental scrub while freeing up cap space this summer for Otto/real bench support is not bad.

The Bogdonavich is good argument is solely predicated on the fact that we gave up a 1st rounder for him. People want to bring him back because we gave up a 1st rounder for him. Ernie thinks he's a top priority because we gave up a 1st rounder for him. By giving up an asset to get him, we subconsciously assign value to him. There is no real value there, people are projecting equating the value of a 1st rounder and Bojan because they were traded for each other.

I think it's easier to make an argument that Bojan is one of the worst players in the NBA than to make an argument that Bojan is a good player.

Bojan is a decent player. He's a terrible defender though, so a diligent team with time to game plan can work to get him into a switch where he has to defend in space. But offensively, he's pretty solid. I can see a team in need of offensive firepower on the second unit, going after a guy like Bojan. Indeed, if we didn't already have Porter and Oubre at SF, I could see us going after him as a second unit scorer making something less than the full MLE. But the fact is, we do have Porter and Oubre. Maybe we should shop for offensive firepower on a second unit, but that offensive firepower shouldn't come in the form of a SF.

Let's see, he's a "decent player" but admittedly a "terrible defender". According to you he's also "solid" offensively. I'm not sure what all that equals but I don't know about him being decent. If we agree is defense is terrible then he probably needs to be more than solid offensively to make up for it and I don't necessarily agree he was. IMO based on his time in DC he was a gunner that ran hot or cold.

Unfortunately he was cold more often than not and when you add in his brutal defense he was pretty much unplayable a great deal of the time. The times he was hot, he was really hot and could either keep you in a game or be a key in winning it. He was also TO prone as he struggled when asked to create off the bounce. Passing was a definite weakness of his as well.

I don't think he was one of worse players in the league (like Burke, Thornton & Nicholson were) but he is not an ideal rotation player b/c unless he made shots, he killed you with his TOs and piss poor defense. In retrospect he was basically a 6-8 version of Juan Dixon, a 'break glass in case of emergency' type of guy. If he makes his first shot, play him. If he misses, sit him.

It seems rather silly to keep him considering our other roster issues and limited budget but of course building the right type or roster isn't Ernie' s first priority, it's about cleaning up his own messes and validating previous moves. He spent a 1st for the guy so keeping him becomes a big priority to Ernie.

[Meliorus]

If we don't resign Bogdonavich, I'm willing to reevaluate that trade. Getting rid of Nicholson's contract and taking back a 1 year rental scrub while freeing up cap space this summer for Otto/real bench support is not bad.

The Bogdonavich is good argument is solely predicated on the fact that we gave up a 1st rounder for him. People want to bring him back because we gave up a 1st rounder for him. Ernie thinks he's a top priority because we gave up a 1st rounder for him. By giving up an asset to get him, we subconsciously assign value to him. There is no real value there, people are projecting equating the value of a 1st rounder and Bojan because they were traded for each other.

I think it's easier to make an argument that Bojan is one of the worst players in the NBA than to make an argument that Bojan is a good player.

Bojan is a decent player. He's a terrible defender though, so a diligent team with time to game plan can work to get him into a switch where he has to defend in space. But offensively, he's pretty solid. I can see a team in need of offensive firepower on the second unit, going after a guy like Bojan. Indeed, if we didn't already have Porter and Oubre at SF, I could see us going after him as a second unit scorer making something less than the full MLE. But the fact is, we do have Porter and Oubre. Maybe we should shop for offensive firepower on a second unit, but that offensive firepower shouldn't come in the form of a SF.

Let's see, he's a "decent player" but admittedly a "terrible defender". According to you he's also "solid" offensively. I'm not sure what all that equals but I don't know about him being decent. If we agree is defense is terrible then he probably needs to be more than solid offensively to make up for it and I don't necessarily agree he was. IMO based on his time in DC he was a gunner that ran hot or cold.

Unfortunately he was cold more often than not and when you add in his brutal defense he was pretty much unplayable a great deal of the time. The times he was hot, he was really hot and could either keep you in a game or be a key in winning it. He was also TO prone as he struggled when asked to create off the bounce. Passing was a definite weakness of his as well.

I don't think he was one of worse players in the league (like Burke, Thornton & Nicholson were) but he is not an ideal rotation player b/c unless he made shots, he killed you with his TOs and piss poor defense. In retrospect he was basically a 6-8 version of Juan Dixon, a 'break glass in case of emergency' type of guy. If he makes his first shot, play him. If he misses, sit him.

It seems rather silly to keep him considering our other roster issues and limited budget but of course building the right type or roster isn't Ernie' s first priority, it's about cleaning up his own messes and validating previous moves. He spent a 1st for the guy so keeping him becomes a big priority to Ernie.

Hot and cold = average offense. Terrible defender = bad defense. Putting it together we have a "decent" player. And his RPM numbers were completely stable the entire season, in Brooklyn and in DC. Eye test is awful. Impact numbers awful. Box-score numbers are frequently empty. The only thing that supports him being good is the association of a 1st round pick to his name.

I think this is a player who should be paying money to play in the NBA, not the other way around. Why not get a player who is cheaper, monumentally better on defense, just as good or better on offense, and younger. Most importantly, a player who makes their team better when they're on the court (or even just a net zero). There are at least 30 of these players available in free agency.

[nate33]

If we don't resign Bogdonavich, I'm willing to reevaluate that trade. Getting rid of Nicholson's contract and taking back a 1 year rental scrub while freeing up cap space this summer for Otto/real bench support is not bad.

The Bogdonavich is good argument is solely predicated on the fact that we gave up a 1st rounder for him. People want to bring him back because we gave up a 1st rounder for him. Ernie thinks he's a top priority because we gave up a 1st rounder for him. By giving up an asset to get him, we subconsciously assign value to him. There is no real value there, people are projecting equating the value of a 1st rounder and Bojan because they were traded for each other.

I think it's easier to make an argument that Bojan is one of the worst players in the NBA than to make an argument that Bojan is a good player.

Bojan is a decent player. He's a terrible defender though, so a diligent team with time to game plan can work to get him into a switch where he has to defend in space. But offensively, he's pretty solid. I can see a team in need of offensive firepower on the second unit, going after a guy like Bojan. Indeed, if we didn't already have Porter and Oubre at SF, I could see us going after him as a second unit scorer making something less than the full MLE. But the fact is, we do have Porter and Oubre. Maybe we should shop for offensive firepower on a second unit, but that offensive firepower shouldn't come in the form of a SF.

Let's see, he's a "decent player" but admittedly a "terrible defender". According to you he's also "solid" offensively. I'm not sure what all that equals but I don't know about him being decent. If we agree is defense is terrible then he probably needs to be more than solid offensively to make up for it and I don't necessarily agree he was. IMO based on his time in DC he was a gunner that ran hot or cold.

Unfortunately he was cold more often than not and when you add in his brutal defense he was pretty much unplayable a great deal of the time. The times he was hot, he was really hot and could either keep you in a game or be a key in winning it. He was also TO prone as he struggled when asked to create off the bounce. Passing was a definite weakness of his as well.

I don't think he was one of worse players in the league (like Burke, Thornton & Nicholson were) but he is not an ideal rotation player b/c unless he made shots, he killed you with his TOs and piss poor defense. In retrospect he was basically a 6-8 version of Juan Dixon, a 'break glass in case of emergency' type of guy. If he makes his first shot, play him. If he misses, sit him.

It seems rather silly to keep him considering our other roster issues and limited budget but of course building the right type or roster isn't Ernie' s first priority, it's about cleaning up his own messes and validating previous moves. He spent a 1st for the guy so keeping him becomes a big priority to Ernie.

I'm not really in disagreement with you. I don't want Bogdanovic either.

The way I see it, management is going to prioritize on finding a scorer to carry the second unit, which already has some decent defensive players in Oubre and Mahinmi. If you are shopping for a scorer in free agency, and you have only $6-8M to spend, you're not going to find a great player. You are either going to find a pretty lackluster, role-playing two way player, or you're going to find a guy who is a pretty solid scorer who is also terrible on defense. I think Bogdanovic is likely to be the type of talent one would find if shopping with $6-8M in cap room. If we didn't have a full complement of SF's, I could see the logic in retaining him. However, for our purposes, I would prefer to find the SG version of Bogdanovic - say, a guy like Belinelli.

[payitforward]

Belinelli???? Please, no.

We need players who have a bright future, not those who have no future & have had a dim past as well. We missed the ideal b/u SG last season: Seth Curry. He's gone, but that is the kind of player we need to be looking for.

[gravytrain24]

Belinelli???? Please, no.

We need players who have a bright future, not those who have no future & have had a dim past as well. We missed the ideal b/u SG last season: Seth Curry. He's gone, but that is the kind of player we need to be looking for.

Tim Hardaway Jr. i believe fits that mold but i think he would want starter money and starter minutes.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[closg00]

Belinelli???? Please, no.

We need players who have a bright future, not those who have no future & have had a dim past as well. We missed the ideal b/u SG last season: Seth Curry. He's gone, but that is the kind of player we need to be looking for.

Agree, Ernie needs to break his 20+ year habit of looking around and seeing "who's around", which to Ernie means finding a warm body that has been "around" in the NBA. If he chose to put in the work, there will be plenty of un-drafted scorers, D-League scorers, Euroleague scorers who have developed overseas and have been forgotten. There will be plenty of guys out there.

[keynote]

This seem like a stupid strategy. Why would Bogdanovic be such a priority? The way I see it, if Otto costs a few million less than the max, we will have about $5-8M to expend on free agents (assuming Mac is also retained) before we hit the luxtax threshold. We could either use our $8.4M MLE on any free agent out there, or we could use Bird Rights with Bogdanovic and spend that same $8M on him.

So if we have $8M to spend, and the whole world of free agency to shop from, why spend it on a small forward. Small forward and center are the only positions where we have depth. And with Oubre needing minutes to develop, SF is literally the last position we should spending money on. Spend the money on a combo guard, or a young PF for the future, or a wing who can back up Beal (Tony Snell?).

I agree that it's dumb to keep Porter, Bogs, and Oubre, given the holes in the rest of the roster. But, as I've said elsewhere, I wouldn't be surprised if the Wizards re-signed Bog and traded Oubre. EG might try to flip him for a better third guard than would otherwise be available/affordable in free agency.

[AFM]

THis should be called The Grunfeld Principle
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost#Loss_aversion_and_the_sunk_cost_fallacy

[pcbothwel]

THis should be called The Grunfeld Principle
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost#Loss_aversion_and_the_sunk_cost_fallacy

I hate that our rivals "Get" the big picture

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/246066/Significant-Change-Could-Occur-For-Celtics-In-Offseason

Ainge:

I think sometimes teams make false assumptions of their team based on things like that.... I know that we’re good. I know that we’re not great....

Just because you’re one piece away doesn’t mean you can get it. And if you force yourself to get it, and if you force a deal or force yourself to get the second best available or the third or fourth best available player at that position that you need, then it might not make you that much better or make you still not good enough, and you’re stuck. So, yeah, we’re not that far away, but we’re still a ways away.

[closg00]

THis should be called The Grunfeld Principle
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost#Loss_aversion_and_the_sunk_cost_fallacy

I hate that our rivals "Get" the big picture

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/246066/Significant-Change-Could-Occur-For-Celtics-In-Offseason

Ainge:

I think sometimes teams make false assumptions of their team based on things like that.... I know that we’re good. I know that we’re not great....

Just because you’re one piece away doesn’t mean you can get it. And if you force yourself to get it, and if you force a deal or force yourself to get the second best available or the third or fourth best available player at that position that you need, then it might not make you that much better or make you still not good enough, and you’re stuck. So, yeah, we’re not that far away, but we’re still a ways away.

Wow, Ainge is the Anti-Ernie, send that article to Ted

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

It's called the sunk cost fallacy

Sunk cost fallacy sounds like Fellatio going down fellatio for cost for a price is that what it is?

Is an another name for a penis of phallus

Being crazy and not even bothering to check the Moto G spell-checker is fun

Sent from my Moto G (4) using RealGM mobile app

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If we don't resign Bogdonavich, I'm willing to reevaluate that trade. Getting rid of Nicholson's contract and taking back a 1 year rental scrub while freeing up cap space this summer for Otto/real bench support is not bad.

The Bogdonavich is good argument is solely predicated on the fact that we gave up a 1st rounder for him. People want to bring him back because we gave up a 1st rounder for him. Ernie thinks he's a top priority because we gave up a 1st rounder for him. By giving up an asset to get him, we subconsciously assign value to him. There is no real value there, people are projecting equating the value of a 1st rounder and Bojan because they were traded for each other.

I think it's easier to make an argument that Bojan is one of the worst players in the NBA than to make an argument that Bojan is a good player.

Bojan is a decent player. He's a terrible defender though, so a diligent team with time to game plan can work to get him into a switch where he has to defend in space. But offensively, he's pretty solid. I can see a team in need of offensive firepower on the second unit, going after a guy like Bojan. Indeed, if we didn't already have Porter and Oubre at SF, I could see us going after him as a second unit scorer making something less than the full MLE. But the fact is, we do have Porter and Oubre. Maybe we should shop for offensive firepower on a second unit, but that offensive firepower shouldn't come in the form of a SF.

Let's see, he's a "decent player" but admittedly a "terrible defender". According to you he's also "solid" offensively. I'm not sure what all that equals but I don't know about him being decent. If we agree is defense is terrible then he probably needs to be more than solid offensively to make up for it and I don't necessarily agree he was. IMO based on his time in DC he was a gunner that ran hot or cold.

Unfortunately he was cold more often than not and when you add in his brutal defense he was pretty much unplayable a great deal of the time. The times he was hot, he was really hot and could either keep you in a game or be a key in winning it. He was also TO prone as he struggled when asked to create off the bounce. Passing was a definite weakness of his as well.

I don't think he was one of worse players in the league (like Burke, Thornton & Nicholson were) but he is not an ideal rotation player b/c unless he made shots, he killed you with his TOs and piss poor defense. In retrospect he was basically a 6-8 version of Juan Dixon, a 'break glass in case of emergency' type of guy. If he makes his first shot, play him. If he misses, sit him.

It seems rather silly to keep him considering our other roster issues and limited budget but of course building the right type or roster isn't Ernie' s first priority, it's about cleaning up his own messes and validating previous moves. He spent a 1st for the guy so keeping him becomes a big priority to Ernie.

To me the decision on bogdanovich came down to that game 7 versus Boston if he had come up large that game I would say keep him but it just seems like he's not the guy you want to devote any resources to

Sent from my Moto G (4) using RealGM mobile app

[Meliorus]

Bojan is a decent player. He's a terrible defender though, so a diligent team with time to game plan can work to get him into a switch where he has to defend in space. But offensively, he's pretty solid. I can see a team in need of offensive firepower on the second unit, going after a guy like Bojan. Indeed, if we didn't already have Porter and Oubre at SF, I could see us going after him as a second unit scorer making something less than the full MLE. But the fact is, we do have Porter and Oubre. Maybe we should shop for offensive firepower on a second unit, but that offensive firepower shouldn't come in the form of a SF.

Let's see, he's a "decent player" but admittedly a "terrible defender". According to you he's also "solid" offensively. I'm not sure what all that equals but I don't know about him being decent. If we agree is defense is terrible then he probably needs to be more than solid offensively to make up for it and I don't necessarily agree he was. IMO based on his time in DC he was a gunner that ran hot or cold.

Unfortunately he was cold more often than not and when you add in his brutal defense he was pretty much unplayable a great deal of the time. The times he was hot, he was really hot and could either keep you in a game or be a key in winning it. He was also TO prone as he struggled when asked to create off the bounce. Passing was a definite weakness of his as well.

I don't think he was one of worse players in the league (like Burke, Thornton & Nicholson were) but he is not an ideal rotation player b/c unless he made shots, he killed you with his TOs and piss poor defense. In retrospect he was basically a 6-8 version of Juan Dixon, a 'break glass in case of emergency' type of guy. If he makes his first shot, play him. If he misses, sit him.

It seems rather silly to keep him considering our other roster issues and limited budget but of course building the right type or roster isn't Ernie' s first priority, it's about cleaning up his own messes and validating previous moves. He spent a 1st for the guy so keeping him becomes a big priority to Ernie.

To me the decision on bogdanovich came down to that game 7 versus Boston if he had come up large that game I would say keep him but it just seems like he's not the guy you want to devote any resources to

Sent from my Moto G (4) using RealGM mobile app

Or game 6, or game 5, or game 2. His two best games were blowouts where he padded his stats in garbage time.

[closg00]

Question to the board. Does not have a 1st round pick make Ernie a nervous player in free agency this summer?

[Dat2U]

Question to the board. Does not have a 1st round pick make Ernie a nervous player in free agency this summer?

It was said a few days ago but Ernie has a risk aversion to free agency. He likes to deal in the known and absolute. He fits the proverbial view that 'a bird in hand is worth more than two in the bush'.

So he's naturally a nervous player in free agency. The Mahinmi acquisition had all the signs of panic move. Whatever the case, like the Eric Maynor signing I expect a quick move. Ernie preaches patience but when it's time to make a trade or venture into free agency he does so fairly aggressively and without hesitation.

My guess is he's only focused on the backup PG position and he'll make the same offer to 2 or 3 guuys and the first one that accepts will be a Wizard (much like the Maynor situation). Guys I could see Ernie making a move on are Calderon, Vasquez, Sessions and Bobby Brown. I think we're talking bargain basement types as Ernie will have to validate the Bogs trade by trying to keep him and will have to have to go the cheap route at backup PG to do so.

[BigA]

Question to the board. Does not have a 1st round pick make Ernie a nervous player in free agency this summer?

Ernie will prove the doubters and panickers wrong once again.

[closg00]

Washington GM Ernie Grunfeld has shown he can put together that kind of team — he just can't build anything approaching a title contender, as that ridiculous Mahinmi contract proves.

For the Wizards to take the next step, they need a new general manager and a new mindset from ownership. Otherwise, this team will spend John Wall's prime teasing the fans on an annual basis.

http://www.foxsports.com/nba/gallery/washington-wizards-offseason-free-agency-trades-2017-needs-051517

National sports writers have a clue

[gravytrain24]

Washington GM Ernie Grunfeld has shown he can put together that kind of team — he just can't build anything approaching a title contender, as that ridiculous Mahinmi contract proves.

For the Wizards to take the next step, they need a new general manager and a new mindset from ownership. Otherwise, this team will spend John Wall's prime teasing the fans on an annual basis.

http://www.foxsports.com/nba/gallery/washington-wizards-offseason-free-agency-trades-2017-needs-051517

National sports writers have a clue

They definitely have the right idea, so do most people on this board. The issue still remains the owner. I'm sure the caps will be ok tho.

[I_Like_Dirt]

The way I see it, management is going to prioritize on finding a scorer to carry the second unit, which already has some decent defensive players in Oubre and Mahinmi. If you are shopping for a scorer in free agency, and you have only $6-8M to spend, you're not going to find a great player. You are either going to find a pretty lackluster, role-playing two way player, or you're going to find a guy who is a pretty solid scorer who is also terrible on defense. I think Bogdanovic is likely to be the type of talent one would find if shopping with $6-8M in cap room. If we didn't have a full complement of SF's, I could see the logic in retaining him. However, for our purposes, I would prefer to find the SG version of Bogdanovic - say, a guy like Belinelli.

Agreed. I mean, if there was only some sort of cost controlled, cheaper contract where you get to "pick" a player and attach them to a 4 year contract for much less than you do in free agency, I'm sure Ernie would be all ears. Too bad such a thing doesn't exist.

Oh, wait, just one more quick message from Ernie with just a single additional qualifier: that same contract also has to come in a manner that allows him to basically do all the work for adding the player in a matter of a couple days at the start of free agency without any year long commitments to make sure he gets a player that he's either already heard is an NBA player, or who will make a name for himself as at least an NBA 13th man in the near future.