Hayward Undecided

[ConstableGeneva]

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The Truth is savage (0:38 mark). Hayward/Celtics talk starts at 2:25 mark.

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[165bows]

There's going to be a little blood loss just to free up the cap for Hayward. Instead of just dumping guys like Rozier and Yabu to do that, we could potentially just route them to Utah and end up gaining from it.

That I definitely have no problem with. Not to hijack the thread, but can we also do that with Griffin? Say Doc wanted AB and Jae maybe? Of course, assuming Blake would agree to come.

The part that I am intrigued by, and which a potential hard cap definitely presents challenges for, is doing sign-and-trades for both Hayward and Griffin, should they choose to want to play for us. I don't believe that Kelly can be utilized here due to being a restricted free agent, but a Hayward sign-and-trade would allow us to keep rights to Amir, Jerebko and Zeller (whose contract is non-guaranteed). Believe that they can all receive Keith Bogans type of contracts of 3 years where only the first year is guaranteed (unless the new CBA closed this loophole, which I have not read). We'd be limited in the amount of raises each could get, but that would greatly facilitate landing Griffin *after* Hayward is potentially signed.

We could conceivably get to the $25m or we'd need for each this way:

1. Zeller/Jerebko/Crowder/Yabu for Hayward.

2. Amir/Bradley/Clippers pick for Griffin.

IT/Fultz
Smart/Rozier
Hayward/Jaylen
Griffin/Nader
Horford/Zizic

I was all about this scenario but I'm wondering if it is sustainable, after looking at how the salaries breakdown after year 1. Teams have paid 100M in tax before but not on an ongoing basis. Of course, the owners are making more now so maybe that changes, but I would be interested to know where their pain threshold is in terms of $.

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At any rate, if they moved Smart as well, his money combined with Crowder's off the chart above, and bake in a hypothetical discount for IT, could come up with most of the $30M+ they need for Blake. But they would still push $100M in tax in year 2-3 and likely 4 of that roster since he is not listing the very back end churn that happens to all teams. Of course, it would be a different story if they didn't keep Isaiah and let Fultz take over after a year lol. Though I'm not sure Blake ages any better than Thomas, outside of being the right fit positionally.

[Captain_Caveman]

That I definitely have no problem with. Not to hijack the thread, but can we also do that with Griffin? Say Doc wanted AB and Jae maybe? Of course, assuming Blake would agree to come.

The part that I am intrigued by, and which a potential hard cap definitely presents challenges for, is doing sign-and-trades for both Hayward and Griffin, should they choose to want to play for us. I don't believe that Kelly can be utilized here due to being a restricted free agent, but a Hayward sign-and-trade would allow us to keep rights to Amir, Jerebko and Zeller (whose contract is non-guaranteed). Believe that they can all receive Keith Bogans type of contracts of 3 years where only the first year is guaranteed (unless the new CBA closed this loophole, which I have not read). We'd be limited in the amount of raises each could get, but that would greatly facilitate landing Griffin *after* Hayward is potentially signed.

We could conceivably get to the $25m or we'd need for each this way:

1. Zeller/Jerebko/Crowder/Yabu for Hayward.

2. Amir/Bradley/Clippers pick for Griffin.

IT/Fultz
Smart/Rozier
Hayward/Jaylen
Griffin/Nader
Horford/Zizic

I was all about this scenario but I'm wondering if it is sustainable, after looking at how the salaries breakdown after year 1. Teams have paid 100M in tax before but not on an ongoing basis. Of course, the owners are making more now so maybe that changes, but I would be interested to know where their pain threshold is in terms of $.

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At any rate, if they moved Smart as well, his money combined with Crowder's off the chart above, and bake in a hypothetical discount for IT, could come up with most of the $30M+ they need for Blake. But they would still push $100M in tax in year 2-3 and likely 4 of that roster since he is not listing the very back end churn that happens to all teams. Of course, it would be a different story if they didn't keep Isaiah and let Fultz take over after a year lol. Though I'm not sure Blake ages any better than Thomas, outside of being the right fit positionally.

Cap/tax $101m next year, and $102m in 2018-19. 2019-20 is uncertain, but projected to be at $108m. Goes up to $118 by 2020-21.

It's really only 2018-19 that we take it in the face in that scenario, and not to the tune of $100m IMO.

[liveod]

Griffin gets too injured. Come on now, gimme Hayward over him and sign another big to play with Zizic/Yabs

[Captain_Caveman]

Griffin gets too injured. Come on now, gimme Hayward over him and sign another big to play with Zizic/Yabs

We are talking about getting Griffin after we get Hayward.

Whatever we do, there would not be cap room if Hayward is signed.

[liveod]

Griffin gets too injured. Come on now, gimme Hayward over him and sign another big to play with Zizic/Yabs

We are talking about getting Griffin after we get Hayward.

Not everyone is...

[sam_I_am]

I think sign and trade of KO with Marcus Smart plus JJ contract would be great for Utah and let's us get to 30 million to get Hayward, assuming that's okay with rules. That leaves assets and Amir contract to go after Butler or George.

[Froob]

I think sign and trade of KO with Marcus Smart plus JJ contract would be great for Utah and let's us get to 30 million to get Hayward, assuming that's okay with rules. That leaves assets and Amir contract to go after Butler or George.

Think that's a pretty bad haul for them, turns them into a treadmill team locking up KO and eventually Smart.

[Captain_Caveman]

Griffin gets too injured. Come on now, gimme Hayward over him and sign another big to play with Zizic/Yabs

We are talking about getting Griffin after we get Hayward.

Not everyone is...

Cool.

There is no cap room to sign a big if we land Hayward. Beyond a mini-MLE aka room exception, it must happen via trade. A Hayward sign-and-trade could make it easier to match salaries there. Otherwise, you likely have to do it exclusively with guys like Bradley/Crowder/IT/Jaylen/Smart, because Olynyk/Amir/Jerebko/Zeller/Young would not be available for that purpose. Neither would Fultz until at least December.

Apply that to any big man you want, not just Griffin.

[Captain_Caveman]

I think sign and trade of KO with Marcus Smart plus JJ contract would be great for Utah and let's us get to 30 million to get Hayward, assuming that's okay with rules. That leaves assets and Amir contract to go after Butler or George.

I don't believe that we can resign-and-trade Olynyk, but I could be wrong. Think we would have to wait until December for that. Zeller and a contract like Bradley or Crowder could be substituted instead.

[Gomes3PC]

Frankly Utah would rather just take the Zeller+Crowder structure. Crowder actually fills in nicely as a fallback for them next to Hood on the wing, and according to Zach Lowe at least, the Jazz have always loved Bradley.

[bigfoot_cryptozoology]

Hmmmm... the most logical move would be a S&T for both Hayward and Griffin. Those two make the most sense as far as
filling the Celtics needs, and, at least in theory obtainable, and could form the nucleus with Fultz of a Super Team. But just because it
seems logical for the Celtics, it doesn't guarantee that either LAC or Utah, Hayward or Griffin will cooperate.
Who knows if those two even like each other? Maybe they detest each other? You have to sell them on the idea
of combining together and forming a Super Team and working out S&Ts... but it's a nifty idea and one that would place the Celtics in Championship Contention, your would think?

Horford - Griffin - Hayward - Brown - IT
Bench: Fultz, Zizic?, one of Smart/Rozier, ???? Ring Chasers

Likely Bradley, Crowder, Yabu, perhaps Zizic, Olynyk hit the road in deals or Cap Space solutions, with options
of the Memphis/Clippers/Celtics/Protected Brooklyn picks going in some maneuver to make the deals happen.

One thing to remember the leverage for a S&T is not with the Celtics but with Utah/LAC, if they don't want to
make a deal with Ainge, the Celtics can't acquire both Griffin and Hayward, so the Cs may have to overpay.

[Captain_Caveman]

Hmmmm... the most logical move would be a S&T for both Hayward and Griffin. Those two make the most sense as far as
filling the Celtics needs, and, at least in theory obtainable, and could form the nucleus with Fultz of a Super Team. But just because it
seems logical for the Celtics, it doesn't guarantee that either LAC or Utah, Hayward or Griffin will cooperate.
Who knows if those two even like each other? Maybe they detest each other? You have to sell them on the idea
of combining together and forming a Super Team and working out S&Ts... but it's a nifty idea and one that would place the Celtics in Championship Contention, your would think?

Horford - Griffin - Hayward - Brown - IT
Bench: Fultz, Zizic?, one of Smart/Rozier, ???? Ring Chasers

Likely Bradley, Crowder, Yabu, perhaps Zizic, Olynyk hit the road in deals or Cap Space solutions, with options
of the Memphis/Clippers/Celtics/Protected Brooklyn picks going in some maneuver to make the deals happen.

One thing to remember the leverage for a S&T is not with the Celtics but with Utah/LAC, if they don't want to
make a deal with Ainge, the Celtics can't acquire both Griffin and Hayward, so the Cs may have to overpay.

Not really in Utah's case. We can in fact get to max cap room for Hayward, which he can decide to take. At that point, Jazz either opt to lose him for nothing, or take a return that = more than nothing. The fact that they would not have cap room of note even without Hayward further helps (as does the fact that the Jazz are one of the least desirable FA spots in the league).

Maybe they opt for a full rebuild at that point, but (a) I doubt it, and (b) even then, we can provide a good trade offer that consists only of expirings and future picks. Like Amir and Zeller on deals only guaranteed for 1 year, plus the Grizz pick and Yabu, or something similar. Which is a pretty good deal for them in that scenario, all things considered. One year in, you have Yabu and a likely lottery pick in 2019. As opposed to having no Hayward, no cap room and no picks as your primary alternative.

LA is trickier, and a lot of uncertainty there. Is Paul staying? Do they want Griffin even if Paul does stay? What does Griffin want for himself? As with Hayward, the key is Griffin wanting to sign with us specifically. If he does, and is willing to sign with a 3rd team like the Heat or Mavs should he not be traded here, Clippers are in trouble.

These deals work in reverse, as well. As in, Griffin could be the one threatening to sign with us as a free agent, all but forcing Doc to take a sign-and-trade. At that point, it is Hayward who can threaten to sign with a 3rd team should the Jazz not sign-and-trade him to us. Should one of the deals be based on expirings and picks, it *really* strengthens our hand in the second trade, as it could be something along the lines of Bradley/Crowder/Jerebko/pick for the 2nd player, which is a pretty decent haul, and may even be pretty attractive for Doc Rivers should Paul stay.

There's a lot of moving parts there, but point being, it can definitely happen. We have spent 4 years collecting more assets than can possibly be used. Time to cash them in.

P.S. Sub Millsap, Gallinari, Ibaka, Noel or Monroe in place of Griffin after a Hayward S&T, if need be. Maybe even DeAndre. Or just keep Olynyk and add a guys like Zach Randolph, Dedmon or Gibson at the MLE.

[KamikazeK]

Adding both Hayward and Griffin seems too good to be true, but damn that would be a nice offseason, especially if they manage to keep Fultz and BRK18 as well.

[The_Ghost_of_JB]

When was the last time a sign and trade was done? Do teams even do that anymore?

[Curmudgeon]

If Hayward doesn't come, I'd consider putting a fat offer sheet in front of Otto Porter, who shot over 43% from 3 pt. range last year. The Wizards have nearly $90M in committed salaries in each of the next two years, so matching an offer sheet for Porter at, say, $18M in year 1 would put them just a few million below the tax line. Barring a big trade, they'd be stuck with the same group (or almost the same group) that lost in round two this year.

As for sign-and-trades, Larry Coon explains in FAQ 93 why there are so few of them under the current CBA.

[liveod]

I also like Otto Porter.

[Fencer reregistered]

Are sign and trades still a thing? I think a sign-and-trade could be a good possibility to get Hayward the max if he informs the Jazz he's leaving. Might as well clear some roster-crunch before teams know we have to make a trade.

Something like Rozier and Crowder for Hayward and Lyles

S&Ts can still happen, but there is no real benefit anymore for the player. Players can now only make as much in a S&T as they could if they signed with a team outright. In addition, the acquiring team becomes hard capped. So, while they are still a thing, they have largely fallen out of use over the past few years.

Would allow us to keep Kelly and a full MLE, likely while staying under the hard cap. Or potentially allow us to retain enough assets for a Griffin sign-and-trade after landing Hayward.

Oh crumb. I think the hard cap is a good argument against by S&T ideas in another thread.

I tend to turn the hard cap around and say "If you're going to go super-deep into luxury tax territory, then you can't also do anything that triggers the hard cap." And given the difficulty of finding players who rank higher in the league than, say, IT (2nd-team All-NBA, probably 5th-7th in MVP voting), the Cs may need to pay more expensive players than other contenders do. E.g., one of the most natural attempts to build a championship roster is:

-- Draft Fultz. Hope he grows into a max-contract player.
-- Sign Hayward.
-- Keep both IT and Avery on huge contrasts, letting one of Fultz/Thomas/Bradley be the highest-paid sixth-man'third-guard in NBA history.
-- Keep Horford, of course.
-- Hope Jaylen earns an expensive next contract. Play a lot of small ball if he does.
-- Hope Zizic earns an expensive next contract.
-- Hope Brooklyn 18 earns an expensive next contract.

My story just took us up to 8 potentially very expensive players. For the plan to succeed in that form, 6-7 of the expensive contracts probably need to actually happen. That's serious luxury tax territory.

[Disinformation]

S&Ts can still happen, but there is no real benefit anymore for the player. Players can now only make as much in a S&T as they could if they signed with a team outright. In addition, the acquiring team becomes hard capped. So, while they are still a thing, they have largely fallen out of use over the past few years.

Oh crumb. I think the hard cap is a good argument against by S&T ideas in another thread.

Whoa...I completely missed this change. When did S&T's cause a "hard cap" and what exactly does that even mean?

[Captain_Caveman]

S&Ts can still happen, but there is no real benefit anymore for the player. Players can now only make as much in a S&T as they could if they signed with a team outright. In addition, the acquiring team becomes hard capped. So, while they are still a thing, they have largely fallen out of use over the past few years.

Would allow us to keep Kelly and a full MLE, likely while staying under the hard cap. Or potentially allow us to retain enough assets for a Griffin sign-and-trade after landing Hayward.

Oh crumb. I think the hard cap is a good argument against by S&T ideas in another thread.

I tend to turn the hard cap around and say "If you're going to go super-deep into luxury tax territory, then you can't also do anything that triggers the hard cap." And given the difficulty of finding players who rank higher in the league than, say, IT (2nd-team All-NBA, probably 5th-7th in MVP voting), the Cs may need to pay more expensive players than other contenders do. E.g., one of the most natural attempts to build a championship roster is:

-- Draft Fultz. Hope he grows into a max-contract player.
-- Sign Hayward.
-- Keep both IT and Avery on huge contrasts, letting one of Fultz/Thomas/Bradley be the highest-paid sixth-man'third-guard in NBA history.
-- Keep Horford, of course.
-- Hope Jaylen earns an expensive next contract. Play a lot of small ball if he does.
-- Hope Zizic earns an expensive next contract.
-- Hope Brooklyn 18 earns an expensive next contract.

My story just took us up to 8 potentially very expensive players. For the plan to succeed in that form, 6-7 of the expensive contracts probably need to actually happen. That's serious luxury tax territory.

Hard cap would be around $125m or so, for this year only. With the trades I am mentioning, with both Bradley and Crowder going out, we are well below that. Could even afford a full MLE and still have a $4-5m buffer under the apron, keeping us under the lux tax as well.

IT/Fultz/Demetrius
Smart/Rozier
Hayward/Jaylen
Griffin/Nader/MLE
Horford/Zizic

Yes, you take it in the face on the lux tax the following year, after IT and Smart are resigned. But then the cap rises again.

It's doable.