Summer Trade/(OffSeason) Thread 2017

[Froob]

I think the most likely trade you see with Bradley is something along the lines of what Indy/ATL/Utah did with Teague/Hill/1st round pick. I could see the Bulls being interested in some sort of deal where we get their 1st back, as an example. Frankly with all those ball-dominant guards they need a spot-up shooter like him, and GarPax is delusional enough to think they are really contending right now.

AB + Fultz for Rondo?

I dunno, if we get Playoff Rondo back that might not be enough for GarPax...

Cavs got really lucky, if IT err Lowry er I mean Rondo doesn't go down, they aren't in the Finals.

[jirrit]

I feel like in the offseason it's very difficult to get an overall read about the Celtics offseason cause everything's spread out in different threads? I'm really having a hard time to read the forums nowadays.

[greenroom31]

... A lot of that trade is predicated on the idea that we also draft Fultz and sign Hayward. Then you have:

IT/Fultz/Rozier
Smart/<Portland guard>
Hayward/Jaylen
Gordon/Yabu
Horford/Zizic

Plus whoever else we draft at #6 and can sign in FA. I understand Gordon can't shoot right now but he's still super young and athletic.

You know that with your trade you have cut heavily into our capspace?

Bradley + Crowder = $15.6 million of our payroll
Zeller's nong. contract is off the books if you look want to make room for a max capslot

Gordon ($5.5) + Turner ($17.1) + #6 caphold ($4.1) = $26.8 million

So with you trade you have taken away roughly $11 million of our capspace. Who would you now trade away to make room for the max free agent slot? Or do you think Hayward would take a $10 to 12 million paycut? And we would have two lesser players on our roster.

Edit: Even if we renounce everyone besides IT, Fultz, AB, Smart, Rozier, Brown, Crowder and Horford and don't sign Yabu/Zizic we don't have enough capspace to outright sign a max free agent. You realize we have to trade someone of our roster to get enough capspace for a max player.

Spoiler math:

Spoiler:

Horford: 27,734,405
Bradley: 8,808,989
#1 pick: 7,026,240
Crowder: 6,796,117
Thomas: 6,261,395
Brown: 4,956,480
Smart: 4,538,020
Yabusele cap hold: 2,247,480
Rozier: 1,988,520
Zizic cap hold: 1,645,200
cap hold: 815,615
cap hold: 815,615
= 73,634,076
projected salary cap = 101,000,000
max capspace = 27,365,924
max player (7-9 years) = 30,100,000

if we don't bring Yabu and Zizic over/sign them we can get an additional 2,261,450 in capspace, meaning our max capspace grows to 29,624,774. we still have to trade someone to go to the 30,100,000 mark.

and we have renounce everyone else, can't go over the cap for Olynyk (declined his qualifying option making him an UFA).

Thanks for explaining, was thinking maybe we could time it to work out but think you're right.

[Andrew McCeltic]

So what sort of trades can you see?

Bradley to Charolette for 11 + MKG

Bradley to Sacto for 5 + 10

Bradley to Dallas for 9 + Noel

Bradley to NYK for 8 and Hermangomez

Bradley to Minni for 7 and Levine or Dunn

Bradley to Philly for either Lakers 18 or Sacto 19 pick

These all seem wildly unrealistic to me but I would love if his value was that high. I view the Ibaka trade as Orlando being stupid not a barometer of market value.

None of those are happening. Not only could nearly all of those teams just try to sign him outright in a year, Bradley could and probably would leave nearly all of them for nothing if they traded for them. To Charlotte for the 11 alone is more plausible, and only because they are not projected to have cap room in 2018.

The Jazz trading #12 for Hill might be a counter-argument (that was before they spent their 2017 cap space on multi-year deals for Joe Johnson and Diaw). Some teams get playoff fever. Minny definitely could be one of them (2nd longest playoff drought in NBA history).

Still think bows' original is wayyyy too optimistic. A lotto pick is a good return for expiring AB. A lotto pick and a very good asset alongside it seem impossible.

7 for Bradley is his absolute ceiling, & depends on variables in MIN.

You could get the 12 from DET, but who wants it? Detroit would have to pony up other assets, maybe in a multi-team deal.

*Maybe* you get Okafor from PHI (everyone hates him now, but I don't think Ainge does) and a future unprotected 1st. Or get Okafor and flip him to a dummy, like to SAC for the 5.

Bradley/Crowder/Zizic/Rozier for Vucevic/6/Hezonja would be a major rebrand for both teams.

[ConstableGeneva]

Blake Griffin's Rebounding %s, Regular Season 2016-17 :
• DeAndre Jordan ON the court: OREB% - 5.7, DREB% - 19.0, TREB% - 12.8
• DeAndre Jordan OFF the court: OREB% - 9.9, DREB% - 29.6, TREB% - 18.9

The difference is significant -- he basically turns from Kelly Olynyk into Kevin Love (basing on this season's numbers). They also often share the floor together since Doc's not a fan of staggering his starters.

Of course, you'd have to decrease those numbers if he's sharing the floor with Horford/Zizic but not by much when compared to sharing the floor with a rebounding monster like Jordan. The small sample (5 mpg w/o DJ) might have also skewed the numbers in Blake's favor.

Damn, quick answer. Yeah, 5mpg is tough. Where'd you find these? Would wonder about other center/pf pairs.

http://stats.nba.com/impact/
It's wonky sometimes but it's free. nbawowy.com has on/off numbers too though I've yet to check for this particular case.

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

Wolves won't give up 7 for Bradley. Not when they have Dunn, Rubio, and Levine.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Blake Griffin's Rebounding %s, Regular Season 2016-17 :
• DeAndre Jordan ON the court: OREB% - 5.7, DREB% - 19.0, TREB% - 12.8
• DeAndre Jordan OFF the court: OREB% - 9.9, DREB% - 29.6, TREB% - 18.9

The difference is significant -- he basically turns from Kelly Olynyk into Kevin Love (basing on this season's numbers). They also often share the floor together since Doc's not a fan of staggering his starters.

Of course, you'd have to decrease those numbers if he's sharing the floor with Horford/Zizic but not by much when compared to sharing the floor with a rebounding monster like Jordan. The small sample (5 mpg w/o DJ) might have also skewed the numbers in Blake's favor.

Damn, quick answer. Yeah, 5mpg is tough. Where'd you find these? Would wonder about other center/pf pairs.

http://stats.nba.com/impact/
It's wonky sometimes but it's free. nbawowy.com has on/off numbers too though I've yet to check for this particular case.

Thanks.. Wonder if anyone's written about this already on an analytics blog or something. If there is a measurable "rebound-hog" effect, that'd make me much more bullish on adding Griffin.

[Elrod is Back]

Wolves won't give up 7 for Bradley. Not when they have Dunn, Rubio, and Levine.

The Wolves might give up 7 for Crowder, and a sweetener like our 2018 no. 1. I gather Wiggins is a 2 defensively after spending some time on the Wolves board a while back.

[Darthlukey]

Wolves won't give up 7 for Bradley. Not when they have Dunn, Rubio, and Levine.

The Wolves might give up 7 for Crowder, and a sweetener like our 2018 no. 1. I gather Wiggins is a 2 defensively after spending some time on the Wolves board a while back.

I had a similar idea actually. If they did that, lottery protected first (just in case the Celts have the season from hell)

[Banks2Pierce]

The Wolves might give up 7 for Crowder, and a sweetener like our 2018 no. 1. I gather Wiggins is a 2 defensively after spending some time on the Wolves board a while back.

You need to have Hayward or another star wing in the bag to do a trade like this or we're at high risk of taking a big step back next season. It could make sense to take a step back, but I doubt we commit to that direction before canvassing the FA market first. Jaylen or the FA market is not going to approximate Crowder's on court value. Adding a 1st to Crowder is us getting bent over on value as well.

[Ed Pinkney]

The Wolves might give up 7 for Crowder, and a sweetener like our 2018 no. 1. I gather Wiggins is a 2 defensively after spending some time on the Wolves board a while back.

You need to have Hayward or another star wing in the bag to do a trade like this or we're at high risk of taking a big step back next season. It could make sense to take a step back, but I doubt we commit to that direction before canvassing the FA market first. Jaylen or the FA market is not going to approximate Crowder's on court value. Adding a 1st to Crowder is us getting bent over on value as well.

On balance of the last two seasons, would there really be that much of a drop off from Crowder to Brown as the starting small forward? Other than Crowder's ability to play some time at the four which I dont think Jaylen can handle yet (he got abused by some bigger bodied players this year), I would argue in six months time he could definitely be Crowder's equal or better at many of the things a three would need to do - shoot threes, defend the wings, switch pick and roll rotations, attack the basket etc.

[bucknersrevenge]

Bradley certainly has built up value to what Ibaka got for OKC. Namely, #12 and Oladipo.

Personally I'd be disappointed with less.

A lot depends on the opportunities we have, but I think if we're getting Fultz, at some point we have to choose between Smart or Bradley.

IT / Fultz
Bradley / Smart

Crowder is gone.

Are you forgetting Terry and Jaylen? Think you better add at least 1 more name to that list, if not 2.

[GregB]

The Jazz trading #12 for Hill might be a counter-argument (that was before they spent their 2017 cap space on multi-year deals for Joe Johnson and Diaw). Some teams get playoff fever. Minny definitely could be one of them (2nd longest playoff drought in NBA history).

Still think bows' original is wayyyy too optimistic. A lotto pick is a good return for expiring AB. A lotto pick and a very good asset alongside it seem impossible.

Agreed if we could get number 7 for Bradley. That would be awesome. I like Jonathan Isaac there. He has the length we need as a backup 3. He can be groomed behind Hayward and continues to add size as we get longer at every position.

Isaac is a lot better prospect as a 4 than a 3. And you are forgetting Jaylen is a natural 3 as well (badly underskilled as a 2).

We will see. We play some of our best basketball with Jaylen starting at the 2. He has the lateral quickness and length to stay with any guy in the league. His handle will continue to improve as will his footwork and timing. He will be able to use finesse and power. Sure he can play the 3 but I think he will be even better at the 2.

[Andrew McCeltic]

A lot depends on the opportunities we have, but I think if we're getting Fultz, at some point we have to choose between Smart or Bradley.

IT / Fultz
Bradley / Smart

Crowder is gone.

Are you forgetting Terry and Jaylen? Think you better add at least 1 more name to that list, if not 2.

Eh, IDK. Rozier can get dealt or kept depending on opportunities, so can IT. IT gets his max. Fultz is here. Because Smart can be a combo guard on a good deal with elite D, and Bradley +++ defense & + scoring, but about to get paid, seems like we probably pay one but not the other. It doesn't make sense to me to pay 25 million to Thomas, 18-20 million to Bradley, 8-12 million to Smart, 30 million to Hayward, 30 to Horford. That's not a smart group to cap out, even when you have Fultz, Brown, BKN 18 developing.

Trying to think of a team in the last decade that's gone in that direction cap-wise, maybe like, the Magic when they were paying Dwight, Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Jameer all at once. And they had Dwight Howard.

[Elrod is Back]

Agreed if we could get number 7 for Bradley. That would be awesome. I like Jonathan Isaac there. He has the length we need as a backup 3. He can be groomed behind Hayward and continues to add size as we get longer at every position.

Isaac is a lot better prospect as a 4 than a 3. And you are forgetting Jaylen is a natural 3 as well (badly underskilled as a 2).

We will see. We play some of our best basketball with Jaylen starting at the 2. He has the lateral quickness and length to stay with any guy in the league. His handle will continue to improve as will his footwork and timing. He will be able to use finesse and power. Sure he can play the 3 but I think he will be even better at the 2.

I agree. I think Jaylen is a better 2 than 3. My dream scenario has him starting at the 2 next year with Fultz, Smart and Rozier off the bench. IT, of course, the starting 1.

And Hayward the starting 3. With Jaylen and Smart playing back-up 3 minutes. Nader in deep reserve and maybe Gerald Green back again at the vet minimum.

With IT at the 1 and Hayward at the 3, there would not be a ton of pressure on Jaylen to be an offensive star. He could grow into his role over two or three years.

Notice, in this scenario we move Bradley for sure and either trade Crowder or renounce Olynyk. That creates more than enough capspace for a max guy.

Ideally we move Bradley to Philly for Holmes. The our 4 and 5 positions have Horford, Holmes, Olynyk/Crowder, Zizic, Yabusele.

If we can't get Hayward or Griffin, then we keep Crowder for now and Olynyk too, if he is at a reasonable deal.

Bradley probably goes no matter what. If we can't get Holmes then just trade him for a future no. 1 pick and clearing capspace.

[Banks2Pierce]

On balance of the last two seasons, would there really be that much of a drop off from Crowder to Brown as the starting small forward?

Probably. Jaylen would have to make a pretty massive sophomore year leap to get on Jae's level. The on/off differences almost look like a misprint between the two.

[Fencer reregistered]

The Wolves might give up 7 for Crowder, and a sweetener like our 2018 no. 1. I gather Wiggins is a 2 defensively after spending some time on the Wolves board a while back.

You need to have Hayward or another star wing in the bag to do a trade like this or we're at high risk of taking a big step back next season. It could make sense to take a step back, but I doubt we commit to that direction before canvassing the FA market first. Jaylen or the FA market is not going to approximate Crowder's on court value. Adding a 1st to Crowder is us getting bent over on value as well.

One idea:

Line up the trade, at least in its general outlines, then offer Crowder + Brooklyn 18 for Porzingis, and let Jackson decide whether he wants to keep Crowder or flip him.

[bucknersrevenge]

IT / Fultz
Bradley / Smart

Crowder is gone.

Are you forgetting Terry and Jaylen? Think you better add at least 1 more name to that list, if not 2.

Eh, IDK. Rozier can get dealt or kept depending on opportunities, so can IT. IT gets his max. Fultz is here. Because Smart can be a combo guard on a good deal with elite D, and Bradley +++ defense & + scoring, but about to get paid, seems like we probably pay one but not the other. It doesn't make sense to me to pay 25 million to Thomas, 18-20 million to Bradley, 8-12 million to Smart, 30 million to Hayward, 30 to Horford. That's not a smart group to cap out, even when you have Fultz, Brown, BKN 18 developing.

Trying to think of a team in the last decade that's gone in that direction cap-wise, maybe like, the Magic when they were paying Dwight, Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Jameer all at once. And they had Dwight Howard.

Whether it's Rozier or someone else or Rozier AND someone else makes no difference. I'm just saying, don't think you can get away with just one guy going. And the only one safe in that group really is Jaylen.

[jmr07019]

Any way we could get Robin Lopez? He's exactly what we need at the 5 and wouldn't cost a ton to land. Only problem is Bulls won't trade him unless they are giving up on building around Butler.

Boston gets: Butler, Lopez
Chicago gets: Smart, Brown, 12
Detroit gets: Bradley

do the deal after we sign Hayward

IT - Butler - Hayward - Horford - Lopez

Fultz as 6th man.

Pretty damn good starting 5. You can go small by putting Fultz in for Lopez or have a really big team by putting in Fultz for IT.

[jmr07019]

Who else is out there for centers?

M Gasol or Whiteside - they will both be expensive

Greg Monroe might come a little cheaper and has been putting up close to 19/11 per 36 the last 3 years

Dieng if Wolves take Issac, Collins or Lauri to play the 4

Kanter if OKC wants to space the floor more and go with Adams at center

Vucevic has been discussed. Orlando is such a mess I wouldn't be surprised to see him blossom somewhere else.

Favors might be on the move is Hayward leaves but if we sign Hayward they won't trade him to us.