Donovan Mitchell - where's the hype?

[Ruzious]

I'm not as high on Mitchell as everyone else here it seems. He really isn't an efficient scorer and while his passing is alright for a SG, he certainly doesn't look like PG material to me. I know that he has great length and is athletic and all that but shouldn't his offense be of a little more concern? He's a poor finisher, shot only 35% from 3 and doesn't draw fouls, leading to a pretty crappy 53TS%. That's with over half of his attempts already being from 3. He didn't pile up a lot of assists either, nothing unusual for a SG at least. Is everyone just assuming that he'll really improve some part of his offensive game? I know that isn't entirely unreasonable for a young prospect, but it should be notable that he has a significant amount of work to do.

80% FT shooter. I'm less concerned about his shot than Lonzo tbh.

Much as I'd like Mr. Ball to look foolish, Lonzo's numbers lean toward him being a stud. He made 41.2 of his 3's, but even better, he made 73.2% of his 2's. His numbers near the basket - both scoring and setting up his teammates - were ridiculous. I'm not sure it's possible for him to not do well in LA.

[EvanZ]

I'm not as high on Mitchell as everyone else here it seems. He really isn't an efficient scorer and while his passing is alright for a SG, he certainly doesn't look like PG material to me. I know that he has great length and is athletic and all that but shouldn't his offense be of a little more concern? He's a poor finisher, shot only 35% from 3 and doesn't draw fouls, leading to a pretty crappy 53TS%. That's with over half of his attempts already being from 3. He didn't pile up a lot of assists either, nothing unusual for a SG at least. Is everyone just assuming that he'll really improve some part of his offensive game? I know that isn't entirely unreasonable for a young prospect, but it should be notable that he has a significant amount of work to do.

80% FT shooter. I'm less concerned about his shot than Lonzo tbh.

Much as I'd like Mr. Ball to look foolish, Lonzo's numbers lean toward him being a stud. He made 41.2 of his 3's, but even better, he made 73.2% of his 2's. His numbers near the basket - both scoring and setting up his teammates - were ridiculous. I'm not sure it's possible for him to not do well in LA.

67% on free throws. Funky shooting form. Way too much hype.

[BleedGreen1989]

Marcus Smart?

[GimmeDat]

I don't get the Marcus Smart comparisons - Mitchell is a much better shooter, more of an above the rim athlete, has more dynamic handles and shiftiness to get in to gaps, etc.

He, like most people, isn't as dogged defensively, and Smart's probably a better passer, but I like Mitchell's potential well beyond what Marcus Smart is atm.

[nykgeneralmanager]

Don't sleep on him for the Knicks pick. His defensive ability, shooting, and the fact that he could probably play the 1 or the 2 make him an intriguing triangle fit.

[doordoor123]

Don't sleep on him for the Knicks pick. His defensive ability, shooting, and the fact that he could probably play the 1 or the 2 make him an intriguing triangle fit.

Phil Jackson is looking someone to build with Porzingis. If they wanted to compete now they wouldn't trade Carmelo. He went with upside when he drafted Porzingis and I think it's more likely he goes for Ntilikina, Monk or Tatum. I really like Mitchell, but his upside isn't has high as those other guys. Ntilikina is a much better defender than Mitchell and he potentially has a better jumpshot. Also if Carmelo leaves there is a huge hole at the 3.

[Mr B]

Don't sleep on him for the Knicks pick. His defensive ability, shooting, and the fact that he could probably play the 1 or the 2 make him an intriguing triangle fit.

Phil Jackson is looking someone to build with Porzingis. If they wanted to compete now they wouldn't trade Carmelo. He went with upside when he drafted Porzingis and I think it's more likely he goes for Ntilikina, Monk or Tatum. I really like Mitchell, but his upside isn't has high as those other guys. Ntilikina is a much better defender than Mitchell and he potentially has a better jumpshot. Also if Carmelo leaves there is a huge hole at the 3.

I completely disagree about Melo. They should move on from his as soon as possible. Addition by subtraction.

[doordoor123]

Don't sleep on him for the Knicks pick. His defensive ability, shooting, and the fact that he could probably play the 1 or the 2 make him an intriguing triangle fit.

Phil Jackson is looking someone to build with Porzingis. If they wanted to compete now they wouldn't trade Carmelo. He went with upside when he drafted Porzingis and I think it's more likely he goes for Ntilikina, Monk or Tatum. I really like Mitchell, but his upside isn't has high as those other guys. Ntilikina is a much better defender than Mitchell and he potentially has a better jumpshot. Also if Carmelo leaves there is a huge hole at the 3.

I completely disagree about Melo. They should move on from his as soon as possible. Addition by subtraction.

Yes, but if they get rid of him they aren't getting better.

[Mr B]

Phil Jackson is looking someone to build with Porzingis. If they wanted to compete now they wouldn't trade Carmelo. He went with upside when he drafted Porzingis and I think it's more likely he goes for Ntilikina, Monk or Tatum. I really like Mitchell, but his upside isn't has high as those other guys. Ntilikina is a much better defender than Mitchell and he potentially has a better jumpshot. Also if Carmelo leaves there is a huge hole at the 3.

I completely disagree about Melo. They should move on from his as soon as possible. Addition by subtraction.

Yes, but if they get rid of him they aren't getting better.

Maybe not in the short term but they definitely are long term.

[doordoor123]

I completely disagree about Melo. They should move on from his as soon as possible. Addition by subtraction.

Yes, but if they get rid of him they aren't getting better.

Maybe not in the short term but they definitely are long term.

That's what I'm saying, they aren't looking for the best player right now, they're looking for the best player in a few years. Mitchell is one of the best players right now, but down the line I think Malik Monk and Frank Ntilikina have more upside.

[Mr B]

I would agree with that. It's going to be interesting to see where Monk goes. He could be there at 9 when the Mavs pick. They need a PG but he doesn't really fit that mold.

[EvanZ]

Monk will fail if he is immediately made a point guard, but down the road he might have that ability to shift over.

[KqWIN]

80% FT shooter. I'm less concerned about his shot than Lonzo tbh.

Much as I'd like Mr. Ball to look foolish, Lonzo's numbers lean toward him being a stud. He made 41.2 of his 3's, but even better, he made 73.2% of his 2's. His numbers near the basket - both scoring and setting up his teammates - were ridiculous. I'm not sure it's possible for him to not do well in LA.

67% on free throws. Funky shooting form. Way too much hype.

I get the FT argument, but my intuitive understanding is that FT% is a better predictor because it usually has a larger sample size. 3P% can be fluky due to SSS, but Lonzo took twice as many 3's as FT's.

[EvanZ]

Much as I'd like Mr. Ball to look foolish, Lonzo's numbers lean toward him being a stud. He made 41.2 of his 3's, but even better, he made 73.2% of his 2's. His numbers near the basket - both scoring and setting up his teammates - were ridiculous. I'm not sure it's possible for him to not do well in LA.

67% on free throws. Funky shooting form. Way too much hype.

I get the FT argument, but my intuitive understanding is that FT% is a better predictor because it usually has a larger sample size. 3P% can be fluky due to SSS, but Lonzo took twice as many 3's as FT's.

Free throws are also a controlled act. They are literally all the same. Same location, no defense. 3pt shots have more variance simply because they come in game situations with context. If a guy is a very good or elite shooter, he should be able to make his free throws. The fact that he happens to have a good 3pt shooting season in a couple hundred shots is more likely to be a fluke.

Time will tell. But I would ask you to look at the elite 3pt shooters in the league today, and tell me which ones shot < 70% in college. You won't find many. I know, because I've looked.

[Ruzious]

Meh, he had one season in college. If he had another, would it surprise ANYONE if he shot over 70% from the line. People generally dramatically improve from their freshman year of college.

First guy I checked - Trevor Ariza - shot .504 from the foul line in college. Second guy - Antawn Jamison was .617 for his UNC career. He's not current, but he's close enough.

[916fan]

Am I the only one who doesn't think Mitchell is a PG? In general, his FG% was extremely low. 40.8% overall. His 2pt% is also low, at only 46.3%.
Compare that to the other PG prospects in this class

Fultz: 50.2
Smith Jr: 50.9
Fox: 52.0
Monk: 49.7
Ball: 73.2

According to hoop-math, his FG% at the rim is only 55.9%
Compare that to the rest of the PGs

Fultz: 61.6
Smith Jr: 64.9
Fox: 64.2
Monk: 68.4
Ball: 78.9

Since he plays off-guard a lot more than these PGs, shouldn't he have a higher FG% at the rim? From cuts, outlets, etc? Even ignoring the stats, game tape tells you that he struggles to get to the rim, and when he does, he's not a good finisher.

What am I missing here? He looks like a SG who can handle the ball imo. Very explosive 2-guard, but definitely don't see him as a PG. Doesn't have the handles. Can't consistently break down defenses. Can't consistently get into the lane(why he settles for long 2s). Doesn't have passing instincts. Is it just hoping he's able to improve on his handles? I think he's a very dynamic prospect, but I see a combo guard at best. Still worth a lotto pick, but not seeing PG.

[cksdayoff]

the main reason mitchell isn't a pg is because he lacks handles. the guy is a secondary ball handler at best

[EvanZ]

Am I the only one who doesn't think Mitchell is a PG? In general, his FG% was extremely low. 40.8% overall. His 2pt% is also low, at only 46.3%.

He's literally not a point guard, so I'm not sure who you're arguing with.

However, on a team with another primary ball-handler that is not a traditional 1, like MIL or PHI, he could easily be a nominal point guard. Think Pat Beverley.

[GimmeDat]

He can play a bit of pseudo-PG if you're running him with a ball handling wing/forward, but he's quite distinctly a SG overall, though. I think people might be overdoing the PG aspect because they're worried about his size at the 2, but I don't think it's too much of an issue given his length.

I've mentioned the comparison before, but Eric Gordon. Gordon was 6'3 and a 6'9 wingspan, so very similar physically, and they're both plus athletes. Very similar posture/form on their jumpers as well (though Gordon doesn't jump as much), and they both have good handle/creation abilities for SG's.

[stitches]

I just watched a full game of Donovan Mitchel vs Michigan as a fan of the team that drafted him and here are my notes from the game(Louisville vs Michigan(NCAA tournament 2nd round)):

1st half
-Starts off-ball - first defensive possession - instructs and directs teammates on a transition D while identifying a shooter on the wing and with great close out prevents a 3 in transition.
-following offensive possession - Loisville runs the same motion we do with a lot of handoffs and screens around the perimeter. Mitchell gets a step on his defender on one of those and throws a one handed pin point pass to an open shooter on the perimeter. Great read and timing.
-HOLY HELL! What a beauty! Step back with between the legs dribble 3p jumper. Defender didn't move. Frozen. Drains it. Looks fired up. Haha, claps his hands looking at his man going back on D. Gambled on D for the steal... maybe he got too excited. Didn't get punished but I'm not sure Quin would appreciate this type of a gamble.
-Another hand-off ... gets trapped by a big and his man on the perimeter... they push him out... Seems like he realizes there must be an open man if there are 2 people chasing him... he's looking for the pass, sees it... nice try, but deflected OoB by a help defender. (seems like he tried to make it a no-look... lol... he's got some flair in his game)
-good transition D, the only player that got back on D, prevents a layup.
-Shoots a 3 on out of bounds play after running through screens... it looks good coming out of his hand, but missed it.
-he seems to be talking on D and pointing to switches and rotations for his teammates. He seems alert and in good stance. Michigan is avoiding attacking him. 6 minutes into the game, they don't let him handle it much.
-open 3 from the corner, misses it. Next - nice hopstep/stepthrough/carryover, but a bit of an ambitious finish in the paint - misses.
- they are switching on D. He's guarding 6'7" wings and they are still not attacking him.
-Another hopstep/stepthrough but got his shot blocked at the rim. Covers a lot of ground with this move. Interesting. I will have to watch for it more. He seems shifty with it. He might have more wiggle than I thought initially.
-Follows his teammate in transition, gets the board finishes the fastbreak.
-Wagner buldozed him on a switch. No call.
-With time expiring attacks the middle going left, tries a tough layup through contest. Doesn't fall. Did it with left hand. Might have trouble finishing in traffic, that's third miss in traffic in the paint.
-Steals a ball from driving Wagner as a help defender. Runs the break, unselfish pass to Adel for thunderous dunk. This was more Adel than Mitchell, but still - made the right play.
- Nice crossover refusing the screen, attacks the paint and holds the ball just long enough to make the help defender commit, drops it off to a teammate for the easy dunk. Nice one.
-Some impressive jumps on rebounds with full extension to grab them. Very nice athleticism.
- Step-back 3 going left with expiring clock and through contest... drains it. Second 3 off the dribble for him. Tough shots.
- Nice recovery after being attacked on a closeout - blocks 6'10" Wilson in the paint! Runs with the ball on the fast break, waits for D to commit, passes to open 3p shooter. Nice. Makes winning plays.

2nd half
-Sweet long bounce pass in transition - his guy misses the bunny.
- seems like he rushed a bit with a pull up in the paint vs contest. Follows it with a 3 with no hesitation on the catch with 27 on the clock. This time drains it.
- Michigan is running everything away from him. I can't even evaluate his D much. They just seem to give the ball to whoever is farthest away from Mitchell. I guess it's somewhat of a statement on his D anyways.
- for a second time a an opponent passes over his head - this is where his size might not be ideal. if he was a couple of inches taller this is a much tougher pass
-Beautiful navigation vs screens, denies the pass on the weakside. Really really nice!!! I guess that's why Michigan don't even try to involve his man in plays... they would be just wasting timeclock trying to get him open.
-Takes another step back 3 off the dribble going left and this time misses. This is probably not a good shot with 20 seconds on the clock. I can't help but think Quin will not like those.
-Hahahaha, that was cute. Rahkman finally decided to try his luck vs Mitchell... almost tripped himself trying to fake Mitchell with and in and out dribble while Mitchell didn't even flinch(good feet, nice balance, good stance). Quickly gave it up afterwards.
-Split double team(they called a foul on the screener, but good to see that he can do that).
-Another pass over his head to a cutter - this seems to be his biggest weakness defensively...
-Another great pass in transition to a wide open man for a 3(missed). Seems to work well in space.
-Attacks closeout with a one dribble pull up in rhythm. Scores!
-Got switched on Wagner in the post, way too big for him, scored on him.
-They cannot beat him off the dribble. Really good lateral movement, really good footwork.
-Tough corner 3, misses.
-It's a bit weird not seeing him get the ball at all in crunchtime.
-Two consecutive finishes in the paint in crunchtime. Who would have thought giving the ball to your best player might bring some success? Too little too late.
-And one more finish after a great hesitation and good body control in the paint.

Louisville lose. Mitchel final statline - 19pts(3/8 from 3, 7/18FG), 7rbs, 5ast, 1blk, 1stl. 0to

tl;dr : He played mainly off-ball. Shows great defensive movement, fighting through screens and moving his feet. I don't think anybody beat him off the dribble the full game. Shows awareness and understanding of what the opponent wants to run and shuts it down. Michigan didn't even try to go against him when possible. Seems like a great defensive prospect. Offensively - might have more wiggle and moves than I initially thought. For example I thought he might be a bit like Wade Baldwin in last year's draft, but I have to say he showed much more than that, he has some nice stepthroughs/stepovers/hopsteps/hesitations in the paint, can splits the D on double teams. Seems to have trouble finishing against length in traffic. His shot on pull ups looks good, but the shot-selection might need some adjustment. The shot itself looks very good - tight and repeatable motion and release, ball comes out smooth out of his hand. I wouldn't be surprised if he shoots ~40% from the 3 at some point during his career. He seems to take some tough shots and if those get limited or eliminated in the league he might bump his %s significantly. He was in the 90th percentile on unguarded 3p shots, he will get some of those in our system if we manage to keep Hayward and Hood.