A year ago, the most undervalued prospect by most internet scouts & the media was - IMO - Thon Maker. His draft stock appeared to be in the late 1st to early 2nd range. DX was particularly down on Maker, never wavering on his ranking as a 2nd rounder. Their scouting videos of Thon primarily used footage from 2015 Hoop Summit practices (SMH) and seemed to downplay his elite physical profile & intriguing 2-way skillset. Maker was out of sight, out of mind - having played an extra year of high school with Toronto’s Athlete Institute.
Maker ranked 9th overall on my 2016 big board, and he’d be borderline top 5 upon re-evaluation of the class today. He became Milwaukee’s starting center after Jabari Parker was injured, albeit in limited minutes. The Bucks went 20-11 after the injury, earning a playoff berth. Maker played a more meaningful roll in the playoffs (19.4 mpg) where he shut down the Raptors’ guards in the PnR, and made life hell for the Raps at the rim. Maker scored 14.5 points per 36 min as a rookie (56% TS), almost exclusively from hustle plays and spot-up shooting. Even if Thon never develops into a more versatile offensive threat, he’ll have a productive career terrorizing opponents on defense with his one-of-a-kind combo of size & mobility.
Jonah Bolden is 2017’s Thon Maker. Not necessarily by game/athletic profile (his best prospect comp is Jonathan Isaac), instead because he’s criminally undervalued. He’s been similarly out of sight, out of mind - having played in the Adriatic League (ABA) this season after an inconsistent season with UCLA. The media and internet scouts haven’t woke yet, but he’s improved by leaps and bounds since his time with the Bruins. Don’t be surprised if a smart NBA team selects Bolden in the lottery, just like Milwaukee did with Maker a year ago.
Physical Profile - Bolden’s upside starts with his tremendous physical tools for either forward spot. He was listed at 6’10 as a 19-year-old at UCLA, which makes sense based on photos with officially-measured UCLA bigs (Kevon Looney, Thomas Welsh, Tony Parker). My best guess is Bolden is between 6’10 and 6’11 in shoes now. His current listed weight is 227 lbs, with a 7’4 wingspan. He's a great all-around athlete. He’s fast in the open floor and moves exceptionally well laterally. He’s fluid in his movements and has very quick feet for his size. He also shows nice explosion in space, often finishing above the rim with ease. His conditioning & motor is excellent (26.9 mpg). Bolden needs to get stronger to handle interior physicality in the NBA, without sacrificing the tremendous mobility that makes him valuable on the perimeter. He has plenty of room left on his large frame.
Defensive Impact - Bolden already has a significant impact on defense, and possesses great potential on that end of the floor. He primarily guards 3’s and 4’s in Europe, both at a high level. He’s athletically superior in virtually all his defensive matchups, which will be the case in the NBA with added strength. He’s at his best guarding on the perimeter, where his height, length, agility and footwork make him a remarkably rangy defender. He switches on to guards with ease, and constantly causes deflections (2.1 STL per 40). Off the ball, Bolden shows solid (but not spectacular) awareness & feel for team defensive concepts. He’s well-positioned & active vs. the PnR, and typically makes the right defensive rotations. He can still improve his discipline with more experience, but already makes plays others cannot with his range. Bolden mixes emphatic weak-side rejections with impressive on-ball blocks (1.5 BLK per 40). The potential is there to be a strong rim protector in more of a PF/C role than his current combo forward position. Bolden is sometimes knocked for inconsistent effort on defense, but those reports are off-base. He plays with a great motor, hustling back on D and flying around to make plays. Perhaps the criticism stems from his lack of physicality, which is Bolden’s most apparent weakness. Not only does he need to add strength, but he lacks a degree of toughness in the paint as well. He can be moved on the block by stronger opponents, which will be more noticeable as an NBA rookie. He also gets pushed around on the defensive glass (6.7 D-Reb per 40), though his perimeter responsibilities don’t leave him in the best position to pull down defensive boards.
Offensive Skillset - Despite a fairly low usage rate for FMP Beograd, Bolden still managed to be a productive scorer in the ABA (18.4 PTS per 40, 56.8 TS%). His most translatable skill is his shooting ability. His jumper is much more consistent than what UCLA fans might remember (40%, 2.4 3PM per 40). He’s got an effortless stroke with a high & quick release, and natural sway. He’s already a consistent threat out to deep NBA range. Better yet, Bolden has shown to be equally adept off the dribble as he is when spotting up. He rises up over the D with his high release off the dribble, whether from deep or in mid-range spots. He gets separation with a smooth handle and nifty footwork for a 6’10+ prospect. Bolden’s flashy handle shows up most often in transition, with plenty of space to operate. He’s not afraid to push the ball down floor, and has surprising vision on the break (2.4 AST per 40). He also runs the floor hard in transition without the ball, finishing explosively in space. Bolden’s high motor is apparent off the ball in the half court. He has a decent feel for how to get open, works hard to get there, and possesses great hands to catch & finish. He could have scored many more easy buckets this year if FMP’s guards were more willing & able to get him the ball. He also crashes the offensive boards effectively with his motor & physical gifts (4.0 O-Reb per 40). The above skills + experience in Europe should allow Bolden to play a complementary role on offense early on in his NBA career. His offensive upside depends on his development as a creator & playmaker, along with added strength. He’s an unselfish player, and shows flashes of creating off the dribble with a quick first step. However, he forces in tight spaces (2.8 TO per 40) or settles to avoid them altogether. While he could use more polish on his handle and improved decision-making in the half court, the main culprit is his lack of strength & physicality. Bolden rarely posts up, and struggles to explode through contact & finish in traffic. Bolden has struggled to get to the line this season, and hit his FT’s when he gets there (61.1 % on 3.9 FTA per 40). He’s shot in the mid-70’s during college and other events, and should put this year’s aberration behind him with more reps of his picturesque shooting stroke.
Bolden is a comparable prospect to Jonathan Isaac, with similar athletic abilities and skillsets on both ends of the court. Isaac is a little quicker & twitchier, and plays with more toughness. Bolden is a little stronger & longer, and has a better outside shot. Both fit the profile of a modern-day PF, with the potential to play SF (and eventually small-ball C) as well. Isaac will pretty much have to start out at SF in the NBA since he’s so skinny, while Bolden’s extra size should allow him to play a role at PF right away. Bolden is a year & a half older than Isaac, but arguably has as much upside. His outside shot and initial versatility advantage probably makes him more NBA-ready than Isaac. Both players are worth a top 10 pick in this draft.
Fun Fact: Jonah Bolden won the ABA Top Prospect Award this year. The previous 3 winners of the award were Dario Saric, Nikola Jokic, & Ante Zizic.
