FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ

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FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#1 » by ardee » Sat Jun 3, 2017 10:00 am

ardee wrote:


Image

1977 Bill Walton
2007 Steve Nash
2008 Paul Pierce
2016 Klay Thompson
2013 Chris Bosh
2016 Andrew Bogut
2012 Avery Bradley
2004 Tayshaun Prince

Doctor MJ wrote:


Image

2014 LeBron James
1997 John Stockton
1977 Bobby Jones
2017 Rudy Gobert
2015 Khris Middleton
1968 Connie Hawkins
2017 Otto Porter
2010 Ryan Anderson

Contestants have until 4 PM EST on Sunday to submit their write-ups, that is exactly 48 hours. Then after that, hopefully judges can submit their votes in a further 48 hours.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#2 » by ardee » Sat Jun 3, 2017 6:10 pm

Ah, will be interesting to play the good Doctor. A renowned member of this board who has made enormous contributions over the years. In fact, I do believe he is the only guy who still posts regularly from when I joined the board first in 2011. He has edified many of us with his knowledge, so I really hate to say this, but I am going to try and destroy him :P

Let me begin my introducing my team: One Nation, Underwood.

Players

1. 1977 Bill Walton (co-captain): My first pick would raise the ceiling of any team he was added to exponentially. He provides immense contributions on the fronts of rebounding and rim protection, but can also score with the best of them when asked to and is an amazing offensive big-man hub from the high post with his cerebral passing. He won't need to score much here given the team surrounding him, but he remains my defensive anchor and best player.

2. 2007 Steve Nash (co-captain): Possibly the highest impact offensive player of all time. So glad I was able to draft him. The rock upon which I shall build my offense. One of the top five shooters of all time, and possibly the greatest playmaker. Walton may be my best player but Steve is my most important. He had developed a bit of a mean streak by 2007 and this will provide a good contrast to Walton's more friendly leadership style.

3. 2008 Paul Pierce (co-captain): The wheelchair man will play a similar role to the one he did for the 2008 Boston Celtics. He will play good defense, just as he did with 2008 Garnett backing him in the post, only this time he gets Walton, a man of similar ability. He will also alternate clutch-time duties with Nash depending on who's hot, and will generally be my go-to isolation scorer in the event my motion-based offense (will go into this further down below) suffers a dry streak.

4. 2016 Klay Thompson: The Nation only needs two things from him. Lights out three point shooting, and very effective man defense against all the quick and nasty point guards of this league so Nash won't have to guard them. In the very occassional event, we may post him up, but chances are it won't come to that. He is perfect for the role I was looking to fill. I expect at least one game where everything comes together and he hits 10+ threes in a half.

5. 2013 Chris Bosh: It is with a touch of melancholy that I write this given the announcement of his permanent departure from the beautiful game. The Nation gives him one more time to use his copious talents. He will be a great pick and roll/pick and pop partner for Nash, and his spry feet will be crucial to guard pick and rolls given his ability to hedge the point guard, preventing quick penetration and then recover back to his man. He doesn't quite have the 3 point range of some of my other guys, but he has a very effective mid-range jumper/long 2 and can still roll to the rim and finish.

6/7/8: 2016 Andrew Bogut/2012 Avery Bradley/2004 Tayshaun Prince: All absolutely elite defensive players who will each find opponents during the tournament where their talents will be called upon. Prince in particular was an absolutely destructive wing defender that year, everyone remembers how many problems he caused Kobe in the Finals that year. Bradley and him also both shoot in the range of 36-40% from 3, ensuring that whoever is on the floor, Nash has options to hit behind the arc. Bogut is basically a middle class man's Walton, ensuring that for 8 minutes per game there will be no drop-off from what I get in the interior.

Rotation

PG: Steve Nash (38 mpg)/Avery Bradley (10 mpg)
SG: Klay Thompson (36 mpg)/Avery Bradley (12 mpg)
SF: Paul Pierce (32 mpg)/Tayshaun Prince (16 mpg)
PF: Chris Bosh (37 mpg)/Paul Pierce (5.5 mpg)/Tayshaun Prince (5.5 mpg)
C: Bill Walton (40 mpg)/Andrew Bogut (8 mpg)

Now these numbers are a general guess, things would change depending on whom Doctor MJ is choosing to play at a given moment.

Offensive Game Plan

This team was built with the vision of the 2014 Spurs in mind. I wanted as much passing and shooting as possible, and I was successful. Here's what my perimeter guys do from 3:

Nash: 45.5% on 4.5 attempts
Thompson: 42.5% on 8.1 attempts
Pierce: 39.2% on 4.6 attempts
Bradley: 40.7% on 0.8 attempts
Prince: 36.3% on 1.9 attempts

Suffice to say, this is the deadliest shooting team in the tournament, including the one with Curry. Literally every one of them besides Prince cannot be left open beyond the arc under any circumstances. The spacing will be absolutely insane.

With that in mind, I'll explore my two primary offensive options:

1. Nash/Bosh PnR/PnP

Assuming the crossmatches of Stockton on Nash and Jones on Bosh, this is going to be a deadly play. The version of Stockton chosen by Doctor MJ is 35 years old, and it will be almost impossible for him to fight through a solid Bosh screen. MJ will almost have to switch, leaving Nash guarded by Bobby Jones. Now, Jones was a fine defensive player, one of the best ever in fact, but at 6'9 I don't believe he can keep up with Nash.

Nash will either be able to get by him to the rim, where he shot 67%, pullup from mid-range, or yank a 3, in case the switch doesn't happen fast enough. All these are very efficient plays. Or, he could hit Bosh on the roll, who shot 72% at the rim that year. Poor Stockton isn't stopping him. If we choose to pop, Bosh shot 49.5% from between 16 and 23 feet.

If they send a double to either Nash or Bosh from the perimeter, Klay and Pierce are lights out from three.

Again, Jones is a great defensive player but this kind of play is far ahead of his time. He simply wouldn't know how to defend it. MJ would have to use LeBron to control the Nash/Bosh PnR, and it still wouldn't be too successful, and it would drain him badly. There's just too much ground to cover given the spacing I have. Even if Gobert came out, despite him being a phenomenal defensive player, he's too much of a rim protector, he wouldn't be able to keep up with Nash on the perimeter, or the ball movement.

It wouldn't be a dunk every possession like the Nash/Amare pick and roll, but no doubt this would be a layup or a 3 every time we ran the play.

2. Nash/Walton pick and roll or Walton from the high post

I suggest watching as much of game 6 of the 1977 NBA Finals as you can find. Watch Walton's passing, screening, and just overall game sense.

Realize there was no 3 point line then.

Now imagine him being able to do those same things, but with 3 40% 3-point shooters. Scary, no?

If we give him the ball in the high post, first of all, it drags Gobert out. This automatically causes problems for the good Doctor, because Gobert is a classic rim protector. Walton wasn't known for his post-up game, but it was certainly good enough whenever he needed it (remember him scoring 44 on 21/22 shooting in the National Championship?). We won't be using it much though, just need him to keep Gobert on his toes so that Bosh and the 3 perimeter players can set screens for each other to provide Walton with either cutters or an open guy to hit on the 3-point line.

A play I'd use a LOT is an entry pass by Nash to Walton and then a cut to the basket by a screen by the latter, followed by a handoff, allowing Nash his 67% shot at the rim. Walton performed a LOT of handoffs on the '77 Blazers, again, this was when the area was choked.

Nash/Walton pick and rolls would be even more dynamic than the Nash/Bosh ones, because even though Walton isn't as dangerous as Bosh from mid-range, he is a much better creator, and it leaves the off-ball players to cut while all attention is focussed on the two maestros.

Walton ran a LOT of give-and-gos from entry passes from Lionel Hollins in 1977, after which Hollins would get a quick screen and then cut to the basket for a layup from a skip pass by Walton. Given how effective this was, can you imagine how it would look if it was Nash, Pierce or Klay on the receiving end?

Again, if you send a double on ANY play, you end up with a 40% three-point shooter open unless Prince is in the game, and he shoots.... 36%.

If we really have nothing else going, Nash or Pierce can iso. I assume LeBron will be guarding Pierce, and Pierce has shown the ability to go mano-e-mano with LeBron at any point (remember the game 7 duel?). It's not an option we'll use too often since this motion based 2014-Spurs-esque passing/shooting offense will always generate something.

Otherwise, it doesn't matter who is guarding who, because we'll be running so many screens that MJ will HAVE to switch, and as soon as we get an open shot or an unfavorable matchup, it's good night.

I have the minutes staggered so one of Nash or Walton and one of Pierce or Klay will always be on the floor, so the offense will never suffer. Again, my bench players are all great shooters, and in the few minutes Bogut plays, he is still a good passer, and I'll just spam Nash/Bosh pick and rolls as much as I can.

Also, as Doctor MJ doesn't really have a huge post-threat to worry about, I'm comfortable playing Prince or Pierce at the 4 for 10 minutes a game, giving me up to 4 lights out shooters with Walton and Nash. That will be like my equivalent of the death lineup for Golden State.

I don't see a way for him to stop this offense.

Defensive Game Plan

To start with, I have one of the greatest defensive peaks of all time in Walton. He is up there with Russell, Robinson and Olajuwon as the best ever. Bosh is an excellent pick and roll defender, pioneering the Heat's hedge and recover scheme. Pierce was a very good man defender in 2008 and Thompson has been known to make life absolute hell for opposing point guards. Both are not great, but they are very good. Off the bench, Bradley and Prince are absolutely elite. I won't need Bradley much here, but Prince will see good minutes here given who I'm dealing with.

When it comes to LeBron, just having Walton there will make it harder for LeBron to drive and put that 79% rim percentage to use. He had a similar impact against Erving in the 1977 Finals. While Doc was able to score and have some posters, Walton was enough of a presence to keep the Blazers in it.

LeBron'll see a combination of Prince and Pierce. Actually, every second Prince is on the floor with LeBron, he'll have instructions to incessantly hound him. Obviously 2014 LeBron > 2004 Kobe but Prince was proven to be a devastating man defender in the 2004 Finals and here he has a better anchor backing him up than either of the Wallace brothers. If LeBron decides to post-up, yeah, I will send Bosh to double, he is quick enough to recover.

If they decide to run screens, I will switch, I feel that between Thompson, Bradley, Pierce, Prince and Bosh, I have quick guys who can all stay in front of their man.

Nash is a liability, but it's not as if he's guarding Magic or Penny. I'll put him on Middleton, and if MJ wants to go to him extra, that's fine, it keeps the ball out of LeBron's hands.

Generally speaking, I don't expect to shut down LeBron, I think he'll get his efficient 27-28 ppg, but the thing is that Doctor MJ's team really lacks creation outside of him. He has shooters in Middleton/Anderson/Porter but the fact is that none of them can create for themselves. The entire team is insanely dependant on LeBron's penetration. Stockton doesn't have a reliable PnR partner to do the damage he is capable of.

Even if they run a Stockton/LeBron pick and roll, I have no issue with Walton or Bosh coming out to help, since MJ doesn't really have the inside threats to punish me.

If I stay at home on the shooters, defend LeBron 1 on 1 as well as possible, this should be relatively straightforward. This team reminds me a bit of a souped up version of the 2009 Cavs. This sort of team would be devastating in a regular league, but not in an all-time league where everyone has multiple elite threats.

Overall

I applaud Doctor MJ for building a balanced team around LeBron, but I just can't see them defending me effectively. LeBron will get his, but the players around him are relatively limited, making it easier for me to slow his offense down.

I honestly think this would look a lot like the 2014 Finals. LeBron would win one game by himself, but then his team would drown in a barrage of layups and 3s.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#3 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Jun 3, 2017 10:46 pm

Below is my general team write up, I'll post about my approach to this matchup in subsequent posts.

Doctor MJ wrote:Note: I want to expand on this later both to explain my thinking and to have fun with the theme. That may not happen until this weekend though.

Starters:

Code: Select all

Player                                           FGA   Year   Age
1 - John "Ned" Stockton                          9.3   1997   34
2 - Khris Middleton aka "Middlefinger"          11.0   2015   23
3 - LeBron "The Prince that was Promised" James 17.6   2014   29
4 - Bobby Jones Snow                            10.7   1977   25
5 - Rudy "The Tower that Stifles" Gobert         7.7   2017   24


Substitutions:

Code: Select all

Connie "Azor Ahai" Hawkins                      17.5   1968   25
Ser Otto the Portable                           10.0   2017   23
Ryan "Giantsbane" Anderson                       6.2   2010   21


Total FGA: 90.0

Okay, I'm afraid I just don't have the time or energy to go all out with my GRRM stuff right now unfortunately, so I'll just expand on this practically here.

LeBron
The basic structure to my team is based around how LeBron likes to play. Him going to work as the hub, and making use of perimeter shooting and cuts from the perimeter.

Connie
After I drafted LeBron 1st I intended to draft Connie Hawkins 6th. In the real world you can't put in a poor man's LeBron for LeBron when he goes to the bench because LeBron clones, even poor quality ones, basically don't exist. But in the all-time league there are a few of them and I'd argue that Connie might be the single closest thing to LeBron.

I realize that many will find that hard to believe, for the same reason that I knew Connie would still be available in the 6th round, but let's at least talk about what's in common with them:

1st, Connie Hawkins is clearly one of the prototypes that has led to LeBron. Baylor is typically the earliest guy mentioned and then oftentimes people skip straight to Dr. J, but this is because of how jacked up Connie's career path was for reasons that no seem at best silly, not because it's remotely strange to see Connie as being roughly the same caliber of performer as these other athletes.

2nd, Connie had a conscious when it came to shooting. By this I mean that when I look back at earlier eras of basketball to me there are the "get its" and the "get nots". Some "get nots" in that era would turn into "get its" today with the help of coaching progress and analytics, but the guys who "got it" even back then are special. Connie was one of those guys in a way that, say, Elgin Baylor was not.

3rd, Connie was a renowned passer. Between his hops, agility, and passing we're talking about a guy who could legitimately play point center in a way like LeBron can. There's limits to that of course. Connie didn't have the weight to do man defense against giants, but the man could certainly pressure shots.

To me if Connie is around today he's pretty easily a superstar. He's not LeBron-level talented no matter how you slice it, but who is? Meanwhile, LeBron has an issue that because of how he likes to play, his team tends to suffer when he goes to the bench. He could really use an understudy with enough talent to roughly pull off a LeBron impression.

Additionally, Connie would be able to play off-ball and be an unreal alley oop recipient both when he's out there with LeBron, and when other great passers have the ball like:

John
To me John Stockton is a steal anywhere in the 2nd round. The reality is that I'm not if anyone other than Tim Duncan was able to maintain impact like Stockton through greater and lesser amounts of primacy. No ego, all effort, always smart. He'd be able to thrive as a co-playmaker with LeBron, and of course his 3-point shooting would benefit from the set up immensely.

Bobby
I'm writing this after the seeds came out, and apparently my team is unseeded despite having the #1 pick. Maybe I'm wrong, but I get the impression that that means people think I didn't build wisely around James & Stockton, and since Bobby Jones was my next pick, and I picked him considerably higher than he was last time, and even last time that was probably surprisingly early for many, I would imagine some explanation is helpful here.

When I'm looking to fill out a team around a high volume star, I'm always looking for guys who excelled off-ball. That to me means I'm looking for motor, intelligence, and some signs of top-tier excellence. Bobby Jones is basically the textbook definition of this.

I'll put it this way: I expect that if we did a DPOY vote for 1977, the year I chose him, the only reason I'd expect to not vote for Jones is the presence of Bill Walton. Jones was the top defensive player on the top defensive team. Great at man defense, great at making smart ball stealing gambles, great at blocking shots, always moving, always trying.

Also note: Jones didn't shoot 3's but if he were around today I'm sure he would. At the very least he had some range and an ability to swoop and leap. I think he'd fit right in with LeBron.

Rudy
I wanted to have a classic eraser, but I needed it to be someone I knew could still do his thing in the space & pace era. Rudy Gobert, the best defender among true big men in the game today obviously fits this.

It's true he doesn't have much range, but the whole idea that you can ignore someone who doesn't score a lot is based on him not being able to move into scoring position with ease. Gobert is an agile mover with almost unprecedented length. You cannot remotely ignore him.

Khris
I would imagine Khris MIddleton and the next two picks below are leaving people skeptical. To be honest this is a little weird to me since we're all dealing with the FGA limitation. I don't know what more you could want in a 5th starter than Khris. He's a smart 3 & D player that has consistently impacted his team when he's been healthy. There really aren't many of these in history.

Otto
I honestly don't know if I can think of a player who better embodies are principle of Portability than Porter. This is a very intelligent player with great length who knows how to maximize his scoring impact with limited volume.

Ryan
Obviously Ryan Anderson is my stretch big. I was torn on whether to go in this direction because people are obviously going to see him as a defensive weakness, but the reality is that in a league with this many bigs from prior eras, I think there's a TON of room for exploitation from a stretch big. Basically any opponent I face that relies on a big defensive anchor is going to have to reckon with what to do against Anderson.

Also it should be noted that there's a reason why Anderson gets more playing time than the Frye's of the world. Anderson is an aggressive rebounder, and he has the body mass to at least make interior scorers work.

To me Ryan Anderson shouldn't have been available as the last pick of the draft. Simple as that.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#4 » by eminence » Sat Jun 3, 2017 11:15 pm

Very interested in hearing MJ's matchup specifics for this one. Think he built a great roster around LeBron and the Hawkins as a poor man's LeBron is a clever idea. Ardee's starting lineup might be my favorite in the tourney, though I'm not a big fan of his bench Bradley wasn't much yet (same for Anderson on MJ's squad), and Bogut was near the end.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#5 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Jun 4, 2017 12:21 am

Alright so, I just don't have the energy right now to write up more. I expect that will be a disadvantage, but not the only one given the seeding.

I'll say up front I really like ardee's team. I think it's well built without any glaring weaknesses.

I do also quite like my team, though at this point I'm used to people not liking my teams as much as I do.

I'm going to be largely responding to ardee below but I'll say this up front:

1st: I don't feel good about jumping in with rebuttals. It feels unfair to ardee if this is the last thing a voter reads before they vote, so please don't vote until ardee responds again.

2nd: I love Nash & Walton, and I think they can be great together...but I don't think you can easily switch between a Nash-style offense and a Walton-style offense. One has a player being ball dominant, one is more of a pinball approach. It can be good either way, but both of these guys are noteworthy specifically because they had bizarrely massive impact used a particular way. Take a little control away from Nash and he's not the same guy. Give Walton less prominence as a passer and you remember he's just not a great scorer.

It's worth acknowledging that there's a little of this with LeBron & Stockton, and my argument is specifically based on thinking that Stockton's impact isn't really based on control despite the control he exerted in his early prime. He took on less and less primacy over time and seemed to be able to do it perfectly.

In a nutshell:
While I prefer Nash to Stockton as an alpha, as a beta I certainly prefer Stockton.

Alright moving on to respond to ardee below:

ardee wrote:Ah, will be interesting to play the good Doctor. A renowned member of this board who has made enormous contributions over the years. In fact, I do believe he is the only guy who still posts regularly from when I joined the board first in 2011. He has edified many of us with his knowledge, so I really hate to say this, but I am going to try and destroy him :P


Aww shucks. :starwars:

Offensive Game Plan
This team was built with the vision of the 2014 Spurs in mind. I wanted as much passing and shooting as possible, and I was successful. Here's what my perimeter guys do from 3:

Nash: 45.5% on 4.5 attempts
Thompson: 42.5% on 8.1 attempts
Pierce: 39.2% on 4.6 attempts
Bradley: 40.7% on 0.8 attempts
Prince: 36.3% on 1.9 attempts

Suffice to say, this is the deadliest shooting team in the tournament, including the one with Curry. Literally every one of them besides Prince cannot be left open beyond the arc under any circumstances. The spacing will be absolutely insane.


I definitely like the team, and I don't hate the Pierce pick, but I will not that when you're talking about him here, you're basically talking about him as if he played like Ray Allen did. In reality Pierce was always much more a lead guard-type. He didn't need to be ball dominant by any means, but that still doesn't make him an epic shooter, and I don't think ardee's going to want to run the team with Pierce as the offensive alpha the way Pierce actually preferred to play.

With that in mind, I'll explore my two primary offensive options:

1. Nash/Bosh PnR/PnP

Assuming the crossmatches of Stockton on Nash and Jones on Bosh, this is going to be a deadly play. The version of Stockton chosen by Doctor MJ is 35 years old, and it will be almost impossible for him to fight through a solid Bosh screen. MJ will almost have to switch, leaving Nash guarded by Bobby Jones. Now, Jones was a fine defensive player, one of the best ever in fact, but at 6'9 I don't believe he can keep up with Nash.

Nash will either be able to get by him to the rim, where he shot 67%, pullup from mid-range, or yank a 3, in case the switch doesn't happen fast enough. All these are very efficient plays. Or, he could hit Bosh on the roll, who shot 72% at the rim that year. Poor Stockton isn't stopping him. If we choose to pop, Bosh shot 49.5% from between 16 and 23 feet.

If they send a double to either Nash or Bosh from the perimeter, Klay and Pierce are lights out from three.

Again, Jones is a great defensive player but this kind of play is far ahead of his time. He simply wouldn't know how to defend it. MJ would have to use LeBron to control the Nash/Bosh PnR, and it still wouldn't be too successful, and it would drain him badly. There's just too much ground to cover given the spacing I have. Even if Gobert came out, despite him being a phenomenal defensive player, he's too much of a rim protector, he wouldn't be able to keep up with Nash on the perimeter, or the ball movement.

It wouldn't be a dunk every possession like the Nash/Amare pick and roll, but no doubt this would be a layup or a 3 every time we ran the play.


Okay now I know this is your project and all but to be clear:

I personally don't think it makes a lot of sense to talk about an All-Time league where the criticisms toward one of the best, highest motor, and smartest defenders of any era gets knocked because he wouldn't know certain things. Jones would have no problem learning these things, because anyone smart can figure it out, and anyone with the requisite length and agility would do about as well as you can expect.

Now, Nash is GOAT at pick & roll and a great shooter. I'm not suggesting we could shut him down. But basically everyone on my team is well suited to handle such switches except Ryan Anderson. When Anderson's in, I totally get looking to exploit him, but anyone else is going to handle it about as well as anyone could.

2. Nash/Walton pick and roll or Walton from the high post

I suggest watching as much of game 6 of the 1977 NBA Finals as you can find. Watch Walton's passing, screening, and just overall game sense.

Realize there was no 3 point line then.

Now imagine him being able to do those same things, but with 3 40% 3-point shooters. Scary, no?


Okay jumping in here just to hammer it in again:

I don't think you can switch between these approaches that easily. This is a philosophical statement I suppose, but I think part of the reason that Nash, Walton, and LeBron have such +/- impact is the fact that the team basically cannot reformulate itself around very different strategies that easily.

I do think though with the Nash/Walton pick & roll you can get some of the same benefit of the Walton-based offense, so I defintely see that as quite scary, but if you relegate Nash to something other than his signature game, you're going to reduce his effectiveness significantly, and given his defensive weakness that would make him a poor #2 draft choice in this league.

If we give him the ball in the high post, first of all, it drags Gobert out. This automatically causes problems for the good Doctor, because Gobert is a classic rim protector. Walton wasn't known for his post-up game, but it was certainly good enough whenever he needed it (remember him scoring 44 on 21/22 shooting in the National Championship?). We won't be using it much though, just need him to keep Gobert on his toes so that Bosh and the 3 perimeter players can set screens for each other to provide Walton with either cutters or an open guy to hit on the 3-point line.


Walton's injuries killed off that aspect of his game. He still continued to improve in other facets, but you had better believe that if Walton tries to actually score on the interior my team is going to be thrilled.

Again, if you send a double on ANY play, you end up with a 40% three-point shooter open unless Prince is in the game, and he shoots.... 36%.


We're not going to need to put a double on Walton. If you want to try to have him volume scorer against All-Time level teams, I think I can speak for the whole league when we say that's fine with us. :wink:

If we really have nothing else going, Nash or Pierce can iso. I assume LeBron will be guarding Pierce, and Pierce has shown the ability to go mano-e-mano with LeBron at any point (remember the game 7 duel?). It's not an option we'll use too often since this motion based 2014-Spurs-esque passing/shooting offense will always generate something.


Better than nothing I suppose, but I mean, I've got LeBron who I can iso with. If you're not beating us with smart offense, you're not beating us.

Otherwise, it doesn't matter who is guarding who, because we'll be running so many screens that MJ will HAVE to switch, and as soon as we get an open shot or an unfavorable matchup, it's good night.


I was thinking of switch defense when I drafted. I have a team that is extraordinarily long, agile, and smart. Anderson is the weak spot as noted. I would give Anderson a try out there at strategic points to see if his 3's and spacing was worth more than his defense cost, but I'd agree that with him out there you'd be strongly considering a pick & roll approach.

Also, as Doctor MJ doesn't really have a huge post-threat to worry about, I'm comfortable playing Prince or Pierce at the 4 for 10 minutes a game, giving me up to 4 lights out shooters with Walton and Nash. That will be like my equivalent of the death lineup for Golden State.


Just because LeBron can do everything else well doesn't mean he isn't an interior threat, I'll be curious what you do if you don't commit Walton to him.

I don't see a way for him to stop this offense.


You've got a great team no doubt.

When it comes to LeBron, just having Walton there will make it harder for LeBron to drive and put that 79% rim percentage to use. He had a similar impact against Erving in the 1977 Finals. While Doc was able to score and have some posters, Walton was enough of a presence to keep the Blazers in it.

LeBron'll see a combination of Prince and Pierce. Actually, every second Prince is on the floor with LeBron, he'll have instructions to incessantly hound him. Obviously 2014 LeBron > 2004 Kobe but Prince was proven to be a devastating man defender in the 2004 Finals and here he has a better anchor backing him up than either of the Wallace brothers. If LeBron decides to post-up, yeah, I will send Bosh to double, he is quick enough to recover.


All of this makes sense, but LeBron's teammates here make those options way less useful than they'd be against normal NBA competition. Doubling LeBron has never worked out well for anyone unless they can leave a man who is utterly useless as a scoring threat. None of the players on my roster qualify as that.

Voters should remember that that all of my players are scoring threats. No most of them can't iso, but that's purposeful. I wanted guys who were known for hurting the opponent when the opponent was focused on an alpha.

Nash is a liability, but it's not as if he's guarding Magic or Penny. I'll put him on Middleton, and if MJ wants to go to him extra, that's fine, it keeps the ball out of LeBron's hands.


Middleton is 6 foot 8 and can hit from 3 when he's open. If Nash is guarding him, he'll literally have a clear shot pretty much all the time.

It's not keeping it out of LeBron's hands when LeBron gets an assist for a 3.

Generally speaking, I don't expect to shut down LeBron, I think he'll get his efficient 27-28 ppg, but the thing is that Doctor MJ's team really lacks creation outside of him. He has shooters in Middleton/Anderson/Porter but the fact is that none of them can create for themselves. The entire team is insanely dependant on LeBron's penetration. Stockton doesn't have a reliable PnR partner to do the damage he is capable of.


When you say "creator" here to me it implies making something from nothing. As in, the defense has you covered as well as possible, so now it's up to someone to make the best of it. The problem with that thinking here is that the only for that to not be LeBron is if you double him, and the moment you do that I have smart players all around him who can exploit the 4-on-3 advantage.

Just because they aren't iso guys doesn't mean they are adept at teamplay. I chose them specifically because of how they fit together as a team.

Even if they run a Stockton/LeBron pick and roll, I have no issue with Walton or Bosh coming out to help, since MJ doesn't really have the inside threats to punish me.


Incidentally I see now reason why I can't do Stockton/LeBron pick & rolls. While I expect my primary attack to be LeBron-centered, pick & roll is something that basically everyone can do because the other players on the team don't really need to change their approach when we use that technique.

Re: No inside threats. You're thinking to literally. I'm not going to attack you on the inside with other guys going one on one in the post. If you vacate the interior I'll have guys swoop in for easy pass-dunks. I specifically didn't want a class post-scoring center because I prefer to have that space available.

I'll note again that while I'm unsure if Anderson will be able to hang in this match up, there's no doubting the spacing damage he'd do to you here.

If I stay at home on the shooters, defend LeBron 1 on 1 as well as possible, this should be relatively straightforward. This team reminds me a bit of a souped up version of the 2009 Cavs. This sort of team would be devastating in a regular league, but not in an all-time league where everyone has multiple elite threats.


Whether you're talking about the real NBA or this super-league, the rule about defending LeBron one-on-one is the same:

If he's bigger and stronger than the man he's guarding, he will own that guy.

You've said you're not using Walton in this capacity, so the one-on-one thing just won't be an option for you. It's going to come down how well others can help without opening up the court too much for my other guys. And again you've got a great team, but so do I.

You may feel some pain as we rip your defensive schemes apart...

Overall

I applaud Doctor MJ for building a balanced team around LeBron, but I just can't see them defending me effectively. LeBron will get his, but the players around him are relatively limited, making it easier for me to slow his offense down.

I honestly think this would look a lot like the 2014 Finals. LeBron would win one game by himself, but then his team would drown in a barrage of layups and 3s.


As mentioned, with any well-built team in this league, there's no way to really do great against them defensively. ardee's team will have a lot of success...but I really don't see what room there is to talk as if the players I have are limited.

Or rather I should say: There's always this push-pull in these leagues. Do you pick all alphas, or do you build a real team? I would actually say ardee has built a real team as well so I don't want to knock him, but I do think fit and strategy are more problematic for him than myself. I have more guys who excel in off-ball roles, and I have by FAR the best scoring option in the on-ball role.

Re: like 2014 finals. I think it's crucial to understand that the Heat were basically out of gas in that series. They developed a strategy together that required vast amounts of energy on defense, and between 4 straight years of finals trips and aging, it just ran out of juice.

I'll add that all of my players are in their 20s except John Stockton, and this Stockton still made All-D and would continue to be exceptionally effective for another half decade.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#6 » by BasketballFan7 » Sun Jun 4, 2017 12:53 am

Doctor MJ wrote:Alright so, I just don't have the energy right now to write up more. I expect that will be a disadvantage, but not the only one given the seeding.

I'll say up front I really like ardee's team. I think it's well built without any glaring weaknesses.

I do also quite like my team, though at this point I'm used to people not liking my teams as much as I do.

I'm going to be largely responding to ardee below but I'll say this up front:

1st: I don't feel good about jumping in with rebuttals. It feels unfair to ardee if this is the last thing a voter reads before they vote, so please don't vote until ardee responds again.

2nd: I love Nash & Walton, and I think they can be great together...but I don't think you can easily switch between a Nash-style offense and a Walton-style offense. One has a player being ball dominant, one is more of a pinball approach. It can be good either way, but both of these guys are noteworthy specifically because they had bizarrely massive impact used a particular way. Take a little control away from Nash and he's not the same guy. Give Walton less prominence as a passer and you remember he's just not a great scorer.

It's worth acknowledging that there's a little of this with LeBron & Stockton, and my argument is specifically based on thinking that Stockton's impact isn't really based on control despite the control he exerted in his early prime. He took on less and less primacy over time and seemed to be able to do it perfectly.

In a nutshell:
While I prefer Nash to Stockton as an alpha, as a beta I certainly prefer Stockton.

Alright moving on to respond to ardee below:

ardee wrote:Ah, will be interesting to play the good Doctor. A renowned member of this board who has made enormous contributions over the years. In fact, I do believe he is the only guy who still posts regularly from when I joined the board first in 2011. He has edified many of us with his knowledge, so I really hate to say this, but I am going to try and destroy him :P


Aww shucks. :starwars:

Offensive Game Plan
This team was built with the vision of the 2014 Spurs in mind. I wanted as much passing and shooting as possible, and I was successful. Here's what my perimeter guys do from 3:

Nash: 45.5% on 4.5 attempts
Thompson: 42.5% on 8.1 attempts
Pierce: 39.2% on 4.6 attempts
Bradley: 40.7% on 0.8 attempts
Prince: 36.3% on 1.9 attempts

Suffice to say, this is the deadliest shooting team in the tournament, including the one with Curry. Literally every one of them besides Prince cannot be left open beyond the arc under any circumstances. The spacing will be absolutely insane.


I definitely like the team, and I don't hate the Pierce pick, but I will not that when you're talking about him here, you're basically talking about him as if he played like Ray Allen did. In reality Pierce was always much more a lead guard-type. He didn't need to be ball dominant by any means, but that still doesn't make him an epic shooter, and I don't think ardee's going to want to run the team with Pierce as the offensive alpha the way Pierce actually preferred to play.

With that in mind, I'll explore my two primary offensive options:

1. Nash/Bosh PnR/PnP

Assuming the crossmatches of Stockton on Nash and Jones on Bosh, this is going to be a deadly play. The version of Stockton chosen by Doctor MJ is 35 years old, and it will be almost impossible for him to fight through a solid Bosh screen. MJ will almost have to switch, leaving Nash guarded by Bobby Jones. Now, Jones was a fine defensive player, one of the best ever in fact, but at 6'9 I don't believe he can keep up with Nash.

Nash will either be able to get by him to the rim, where he shot 67%, pullup from mid-range, or yank a 3, in case the switch doesn't happen fast enough. All these are very efficient plays. Or, he could hit Bosh on the roll, who shot 72% at the rim that year. Poor Stockton isn't stopping him. If we choose to pop, Bosh shot 49.5% from between 16 and 23 feet.

If they send a double to either Nash or Bosh from the perimeter, Klay and Pierce are lights out from three.

Again, Jones is a great defensive player but this kind of play is far ahead of his time. He simply wouldn't know how to defend it. MJ would have to use LeBron to control the Nash/Bosh PnR, and it still wouldn't be too successful, and it would drain him badly. There's just too much ground to cover given the spacing I have. Even if Gobert came out, despite him being a phenomenal defensive player, he's too much of a rim protector, he wouldn't be able to keep up with Nash on the perimeter, or the ball movement.

It wouldn't be a dunk every possession like the Nash/Amare pick and roll, but no doubt this would be a layup or a 3 every time we ran the play.


Okay now I know this is your project and all but to be clear:

I personally don't think it makes a lot of sense to talk about an All-Time league where the criticisms toward one of the best, highest motor, and smartest defenders of any era gets knocked because he wouldn't know certain things. Jones would have no problem learning these things, because anyone smart can figure it out, and anyone with the requisite length and agility would do about as well as you can expect.

Now, Nash is GOAT at pick & roll and a great shooter. I'm not suggesting we could shut him down. But basically everyone on my team is well suited to handle such switches except Ryan Anderson. When Anderson's in, I totally get looking to exploit him, but anyone else is going to handle it about as well as anyone could.

2. Nash/Walton pick and roll or Walton from the high post

I suggest watching as much of game 6 of the 1977 NBA Finals as you can find. Watch Walton's passing, screening, and just overall game sense.

Realize there was no 3 point line then.

Now imagine him being able to do those same things, but with 3 40% 3-point shooters. Scary, no?


Okay jumping in here just to hammer it in again:

I don't think you can switch between these approaches that easily. This is a philosophical statement I suppose, but I think part of the reason that Nash, Walton, and LeBron have such +/- impact is the fact that the team basically cannot reformulate itself around very different strategies that easily.

I do think though with the Nash/Walton pick & roll you can get some of the same benefit of the Walton-based offense, so I defintely see that as quite scary, but if you relegate Nash to something other than his signature game, you're going to reduce his effectiveness significantly, and given his defensive weakness that would make him a poor #2 draft choice in this league.

If we give him the ball in the high post, first of all, it drags Gobert out. This automatically causes problems for the good Doctor, because Gobert is a classic rim protector. Walton wasn't known for his post-up game, but it was certainly good enough whenever he needed it (remember him scoring 44 on 21/22 shooting in the National Championship?). We won't be using it much though, just need him to keep Gobert on his toes so that Bosh and the 3 perimeter players can set screens for each other to provide Walton with either cutters or an open guy to hit on the 3-point line.


Walton's injuries killed off that aspect of his game. He still continued to improve in other facets, but you had better believe that if Walton tries to actually score on the interior my team is going to be thrilled.

Again, if you send a double on ANY play, you end up with a 40% three-point shooter open unless Prince is in the game, and he shoots.... 36%.


We're not going to need to put a double on Walton. If you want to try to have him volume scorer against All-Time level teams, I think I can speak for the whole league when we say that's fine with us. :wink:

If we really have nothing else going, Nash or Pierce can iso. I assume LeBron will be guarding Pierce, and Pierce has shown the ability to go mano-e-mano with LeBron at any point (remember the game 7 duel?). It's not an option we'll use too often since this motion based 2014-Spurs-esque passing/shooting offense will always generate something.


Better than nothing I suppose, but I mean, I've got LeBron who I can iso with. If you're not beating us with smart offense, you're not beating us.

Otherwise, it doesn't matter who is guarding who, because we'll be running so many screens that MJ will HAVE to switch, and as soon as we get an open shot or an unfavorable matchup, it's good night.


I was thinking of switch defense when I drafted. I have a team that is extraordinarily long, agile, and smart. Anderson is the weak spot as noted. I would give Anderson a try out there at strategic points to see if his 3's and spacing was worth more than his defense cost, but I'd agree that with him out there you'd be strongly considering a pick & roll approach.

Also, as Doctor MJ doesn't really have a huge post-threat to worry about, I'm comfortable playing Prince or Pierce at the 4 for 10 minutes a game, giving me up to 4 lights out shooters with Walton and Nash. That will be like my equivalent of the death lineup for Golden State.


Just because LeBron can do everything else well doesn't mean he isn't an interior threat, I'll be curious what you do if you don't commit Walton to him.

I don't see a way for him to stop this offense.


You've got a great team no doubt.

When it comes to LeBron, just having Walton there will make it harder for LeBron to drive and put that 79% rim percentage to use. He had a similar impact against Erving in the 1977 Finals. While Doc was able to score and have some posters, Walton was enough of a presence to keep the Blazers in it.

LeBron'll see a combination of Prince and Pierce. Actually, every second Prince is on the floor with LeBron, he'll have instructions to incessantly hound him. Obviously 2014 LeBron > 2004 Kobe but Prince was proven to be a devastating man defender in the 2004 Finals and here he has a better anchor backing him up than either of the Wallace brothers. If LeBron decides to post-up, yeah, I will send Bosh to double, he is quick enough to recover.


All of this makes sense, but LeBron's teammates here make those options way less useful than they'd be against normal NBA competition. Doubling LeBron has never worked out well for anyone unless they can leave a man who is utterly useless as a scoring threat. None of the players on my roster qualify as that.

Voters should remember that that all of my players are scoring threats. No most of them can't iso, but that's purposeful. I wanted guys who were known for hurting the opponent when the opponent was focused on an alpha.

Nash is a liability, but it's not as if he's guarding Magic or Penny. I'll put him on Middleton, and if MJ wants to go to him extra, that's fine, it keeps the ball out of LeBron's hands.


Middleton is 6 foot 8 and can hit from 3 when he's open. If Nash is guarding him, he'll literally have a clear shot pretty much all the time.

It's not keeping it out of LeBron's hands when LeBron gets an assist for a 3.

Generally speaking, I don't expect to shut down LeBron, I think he'll get his efficient 27-28 ppg, but the thing is that Doctor MJ's team really lacks creation outside of him. He has shooters in Middleton/Anderson/Porter but the fact is that none of them can create for themselves. The entire team is insanely dependant on LeBron's penetration. Stockton doesn't have a reliable PnR partner to do the damage he is capable of.


When you say "creator" here to me it implies making something from nothing. As in, the defense has you covered as well as possible, so now it's up to someone to make the best of it. The problem with that thinking here is that the only for that to not be LeBron is if you double him, and the moment you do that I have smart players all around him who can exploit the 4-on-3 advantage.

Just because they aren't iso guys doesn't mean they are adept at teamplay. I chose them specifically because of how they fit together as a team.

Even if they run a Stockton/LeBron pick and roll, I have no issue with Walton or Bosh coming out to help, since MJ doesn't really have the inside threats to punish me.


Incidentally I see now reason why I can't do Stockton/LeBron pick & rolls. While I expect my primary attack to be LeBron-centered, pick & roll is something that basically everyone can do because the other players on the team don't really need to change their approach when we use that technique.

Re: No inside threats. You're thinking to literally. I'm not going to attack you on the inside with other guys going one on one in the post. If you vacate the interior I'll have guys swoop in for easy pass-dunks. I specifically didn't want a class post-scoring center because I prefer to have that space available.

I'll note again that while I'm unsure if Anderson will be able to hang in this match up, there's no doubting the spacing damage he'd do to you here.

If I stay at home on the shooters, defend LeBron 1 on 1 as well as possible, this should be relatively straightforward. This team reminds me a bit of a souped up version of the 2009 Cavs. This sort of team would be devastating in a regular league, but not in an all-time league where everyone has multiple elite threats.


Whether you're talking about the real NBA or this super-league, the rule about defending LeBron one-on-one is the same:

If he's bigger and stronger than the man he's guarding, he will own that guy.

You've said you're not using Walton in this capacity, so the one-on-one thing just won't be an option for you. It's going to come down how well others can help without opening up the court too much for my other guys. And again you've got a great team, but so do I.

You may feel some pain as we rip your defensive schemes apart...

Overall

I applaud Doctor MJ for building a balanced team around LeBron, but I just can't see them defending me effectively. LeBron will get his, but the players around him are relatively limited, making it easier for me to slow his offense down.

I honestly think this would look a lot like the 2014 Finals. LeBron would win one game by himself, but then his team would drown in a barrage of layups and 3s.


As mentioned, with any well-built team in this league, there's no way to really do great against them defensively. ardee's team will have a lot of success...but I really don't see what room there is to talk as if the players I have are limited.

Or rather I should say: There's always this push-pull in these leagues. Do you pick all alphas, or do you build a real team? I would actually say ardee has built a real team as well so I don't want to knock him, but I do think fit and strategy are more problematic for him than myself. I have more guys who excel in off-ball roles, and I have by FAR the best scoring option in the on-ball role.

Re: like 2014 finals. I think it's crucial to understand that the Heat were basically out of gas in that series. They developed a strategy together that required vast amounts of energy on defense, and between 4 straight years of finals trips and aging, it just ran out of juice.

I'll add that all of my players are in their 20s except John Stockton, and this Stockton still made All-D and would continue to be exceptionally effective for another half decade.

I think the seeding is randomized.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#7 » by SkyHookFTW » Sun Jun 4, 2017 1:55 am

Hmm, a defense based around Gobert/Jones would be straight up nasty, especially since Jones is a guy who can do just about any role on the court.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#8 » by drza » Sun Jun 4, 2017 4:01 am

Alright, let's try it again. This is fun, though I must admit I don't know how long my wife is going to let me play on the computer before she snatches me. In the meantime...

1) These are both real teams, that have fit and an identity, not just a collection of talent. I think this is great, and it also should help me get more of a feel for what things would look like.

2) Doc's squad feels like a Megatron version of the 2009/2010 Cavs. LeBron is himself, and that team was predicated on having strong role players around him as either shooters or defensive parts. Stockton isn't the volume scorer that a hot Mo Williams could be, but in every other way he's WAY better. He'd be a smart and high-efficiency off-ball shooter, and obviously he's a great floor general when LeBron is playing off ball. Middleton/Jones/Gobert is an outstanding combo of positional defense and finishing ability on offense. The Connie as LeBron-junior off the bench is brilliant, and there's a lot of frontcourt versatility. Not a lot of backcourt depth, though.

3) Ardee mentioned the 2014 Spurs, but to me? His team is a megatron version of the 2009 - 2012 Celtics. Not the 2008 version, as that one was much more concentrated among KG/Pierce/Allen with role players else and that relied more heavily on Garnett's iso offense in the playoffs. No, he's built the version where Doc let Rondo handle the ball an absurd amount of the time...only he's replaced the questionable impact/lack-of-shooting of Rondo with the mega impact/outstanding scoring threat option of Steve Nash. I don't see there being any controversy over what the offense would look like...it'd be Nash's version, with him in the complete driver's seat. Walton's versatility to operate from the high-post would still be a nice change-of-pace, but I see him in KG's defense-focused mode, maximizing on defense and fitting in where needed on offense. Bosh would be in KG's role as the Pick-and-roll partner of choice, Pierce would be Pierce, and Klay would mimic Ray on offense. I've seen this team before, up close, except with Nash in Rondo's role the ceiling comes off the offensive upside while the defensive upside is very similar.

4) We got to see iterations of these teams face each other four times between 2008 and 2012. But again, these are scaled up versions of both squads. In real life, the Celtics' strategy on defense was to make life hard for LeBron, with Pierce pressing him on the perimeter, KG roving at the second level and meeting him on the drive. This strategy had a lot of success, except in 2011 when Wade killed them and in 2012 when LeBron went robotic in Game 6. I think that 77 Walton is one of the closest historical analogs to Celtics Garnett on defense, with even more height but still extreme mobility to navigate the paint. Thus, I think Ardee's team defense would be able to implement a similar defensive strategy, which essentially let LeBron get his to an extent but kept him from finishing at good efficiency in the paint which made his scoring much more perimeter oriented than he preferred or made him force finishes at the rim. This puts more onus on LeBron's teammates on offense. And, though his team is great support for LeBron, I don't feel that they are ideal for picking up the slack when LeBron isn't able to do what he likes to do best.

5) On the other side of the ball, I can't emphasize how much the upgrade from Rondo to Nash shifts the potential of the unit. Yes, Gobert is a better interior defender than old Ben Wallace/Big Z. Yes, Bobby should be a great versatile 4 on defense, and Khris is a solid 3 & D big wing. But. Nash is going to be able to keep his dribble alive and probe and penetrate, making things imbalance, then utilizing the opportunities. Rondo did that in real life, and his pick-and-roll offense with KG in 2010 let both of them control the action on offense in the series. Nash and Bosh would be much harder on the defense...not because Jones couldn't adapt, but because it's a no-win situation. Nash is going to get creases, and/or Bosh is going to get a good look more times than not if defended only with two men, even Stockton and Jones. And if LeBron comes off the help, which I feel like he'd have to do, this does leave Pierce and/or Klay with a good spot-up jumper. Doc MJ mentioned that Pierce didn't play like Ray Allen in '08, and that's true, but by 2009 - 2012, Pierce showed that he could be an absurdly high-efficient finisher off-ball with Rondo doing gross amounts of ball-handling. And Rudy is a wall defender in the paint, but there'd be too much space for the talented shooters to score unless he comes way out, and Walton's insane motor lets him be an offensive rebound monster in that situation.

6) I do think it should be noted that the Pierce iso is dead against LeBron. LeBron routinely erased Pierce in the playoffs. People really let the 2008 Game 7 distort their historical understanding of their match-up. Through the first 6 games of the 2008 match-up, Pierce averaged:

Pierce (first 6, '08): 15.8 ppg (36% FG, 26% 3-ptrs), 3.3 ast, 3.3 TO, avg Gm Scr: 8.1
Pierce (vs CLE, '10): 13.5 ppg (35% FG, 31% 3-ptrs), 3.7 ast, 2.5 TO, avg Gm Scr: 7.3

I added their 2010 series as a bonus, to show that 08 wasn't a fluke. Yes, Pierce's 2008 Game 7 offensive explosion was outstanding. In fact, I'd say it's even MORE impressive when you consider the above, because in general LeBron tortured Pierce in the playoffs in that era. Bringing it to this match-up...no, Pierce will never be a reliable iso player in a playoff match-up against LeBron as a main option. The only good news for Ardee is that, with the team as it is, he shouldn't have to be. Nash will be the primary handler, and both Bosh and Klay are reasonable iso options if things break down. And Pierce wouldn't turn into nothing, he just wouldn't be the option against LeBron that he will be against most match-ups.

7) Conclusions. Much like in the Eminence/Micah match-up, I have a solid feel at the moment for how I think things would go. I think Doc's team is a better version of the LeBron James teams we've seen in real life, but I don't see a huge amount of upside from real life. With this support, I imagine that the offense and defense would both potentially be better than real life, but it'd be incremental improvements. On the other hand, I feel like Ardee's team can directly mimic another contending team we've seen recently, but with an orders-of-magnitude improvement on offense with very similar defense. At the moment, I'm leaning Ardee in 5. But, I'll still be following the thread to see if my mind is changed by someone either poking holes or (even better) giving an entirely different perspective that right now I'm just not seeing.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#9 » by ardee » Sun Jun 4, 2017 4:00 pm

Rebuttal time.

Doctor MJ wrote:
Offensive Game Plan
This team was built with the vision of the 2014 Spurs in mind. I wanted as much passing and shooting as possible, and I was successful. Here's what my perimeter guys do from 3:

Nash: 45.5% on 4.5 attempts
Thompson: 42.5% on 8.1 attempts
Pierce: 39.2% on 4.6 attempts
Bradley: 40.7% on 0.8 attempts
Prince: 36.3% on 1.9 attempts

Suffice to say, this is the deadliest shooting team in the tournament, including the one with Curry. Literally every one of them besides Prince cannot be left open beyond the arc under any circumstances. The spacing will be absolutely insane.


I definitely like the team, and I don't hate the Pierce pick, but I will not that when you're talking about him here, you're basically talking about him as if he played like Ray Allen did. In reality Pierce was always much more a lead guard-type. He didn't need to be ball dominant by any means, but that still doesn't make him an epic shooter, and I don't think ardee's going to want to run the team with Pierce as the offensive alpha the way Pierce actually preferred to play.


I think you understimate just how desperate Pierce was to win in 2008 (indeed, Allen and Garnett too). He isn't going to make a fuss about not being the alpha, if that's what you are suggesting. And like drza mentioned, in subsequent years he was very good in a sniper role who could put the ball on the floor whenever needed. And he would get those opportunities, with the numerous screens you'll see me running.

With that in mind, I'll explore my two primary offensive options:

1. Nash/Bosh PnR/PnP

Assuming the crossmatches of Stockton on Nash and Jones on Bosh, this is going to be a deadly play. The version of Stockton chosen by Doctor MJ is 35 years old, and it will be almost impossible for him to fight through a solid Bosh screen. MJ will almost have to switch, leaving Nash guarded by Bobby Jones. Now, Jones was a fine defensive player, one of the best ever in fact, but at 6'9 I don't believe he can keep up with Nash.

Nash will either be able to get by him to the rim, where he shot 67%, pullup from mid-range, or yank a 3, in case the switch doesn't happen fast enough. All these are very efficient plays. Or, he could hit Bosh on the roll, who shot 72% at the rim that year. Poor Stockton isn't stopping him. If we choose to pop, Bosh shot 49.5% from between 16 and 23 feet.

If they send a double to either Nash or Bosh from the perimeter, Klay and Pierce are lights out from three.

Again, Jones is a great defensive player but this kind of play is far ahead of his time. He simply wouldn't know how to defend it. MJ would have to use LeBron to control the Nash/Bosh PnR, and it still wouldn't be too successful, and it would drain him badly. There's just too much ground to cover given the spacing I have. Even if Gobert came out, despite him being a phenomenal defensive player, he's too much of a rim protector, he wouldn't be able to keep up with Nash on the perimeter, or the ball movement.

It wouldn't be a dunk every possession like the Nash/Amare pick and roll, but no doubt this would be a layup or a 3 every time we ran the play.


Okay now I know this is your project and all but to be clear:

I personally don't think it makes a lot of sense to talk about an All-Time league where the criticisms toward one of the best, highest motor, and smartest defenders of any era gets knocked because he wouldn't know certain things. Jones would have no problem learning these things, because anyone smart can figure it out, and anyone with the requisite length and agility would do about as well as you can expect.

Now, Nash is GOAT at pick & roll and a great shooter. I'm not suggesting we could shut him down. But basically everyone on my team is well suited to handle such switches except Ryan Anderson. When Anderson's in, I totally get looking to exploit him, but anyone else is going to handle it about as well as anyone could.


Ok, agreed, that point I will concede. Jones was a legendary defensive player. I still don't think he'll have much joy guarding the Nash/Bosh PnR, not because of his own capabilities, but because that play will be unguardable for basically anyone.

2. Nash/Walton pick and roll or Walton from the high post

I suggest watching as much of game 6 of the 1977 NBA Finals as you can find. Watch Walton's passing, screening, and just overall game sense.

Realize there was no 3 point line then.

Now imagine him being able to do those same things, but with 3 40% 3-point shooters. Scary, no?


Okay jumping in here just to hammer it in again:

I don't think you can switch between these approaches that easily. This is a philosophical statement I suppose, but I think part of the reason that Nash, Walton, and LeBron have such +/- impact is the fact that the team basically cannot reformulate itself around very different strategies that easily.

I do think though with the Nash/Walton pick & roll you can get some of the same benefit of the Walton-based offense, so I defintely see that as quite scary, but if you relegate Nash to something other than his signature game, you're going to reduce his effectiveness significantly, and given his defensive weakness that would make him a poor #2 draft choice in this league.


I mean, Nash has the prime role, that I should have made more clear. But the option of running things through Walton if Nash is being played extremely tightly is there: and when Nash is on the bench, he's the perfect option to have. Like I said, one of them will always be on the floor. Walton will still make enormous impact on defense, so I'm not worried about making the pick not worth it.

If we give him the ball in the high post, first of all, it drags Gobert out. This automatically causes problems for the good Doctor, because Gobert is a classic rim protector. Walton wasn't known for his post-up game, but it was certainly good enough whenever he needed it (remember him scoring 44 on 21/22 shooting in the National Championship?). We won't be using it much though, just need him to keep Gobert on his toes so that Bosh and the 3 perimeter players can set screens for each other to provide Walton with either cutters or an open guy to hit on the 3-point line.


Walton's injuries killed off that aspect of his game. He still continued to improve in other facets, but you had better believe that if Walton tries to actually score on the interior my team is going to be thrilled.


The point is Gobert still has to follow him out, giving my perimeter guys cutting lanes whom he can hit with a crisply put bounce pass.

Again, if you send a double on ANY play, you end up with a 40% three-point shooter open unless Prince is in the game, and he shoots.... 36%.


We're not going to need to put a double on Walton. If you want to try to have him volume scorer against All-Time level teams, I think I can speak for the whole league when we say that's fine with us. :wink:



I meant any play, not just Walton. If it's a Nash/Bosh pick and roll and someone helps on either of them, you better believe it's a 40% 3.

If we really have nothing else going, Nash or Pierce can iso. I assume LeBron will be guarding Pierce, and Pierce has shown the ability to go mano-e-mano with LeBron at any point (remember the game 7 duel?). It's not an option we'll use too often since this motion based 2014-Spurs-esque passing/shooting offense will always generate something.


Better than nothing I suppose, but I mean, I've got LeBron who I can iso with. If you're not beating us with smart offense, you're not beating us.


I think you're underestimating Nash's one on one scoring ability, if I need to use it. He's not LeBron but he's shown time and time again in the Playoffs what he can do.

Again, won't come to that, there is too much IQ on this team for the need to iso.

Otherwise, it doesn't matter who is guarding who, because we'll be running so many screens that MJ will HAVE to switch, and as soon as we get an open shot or an unfavorable matchup, it's good night.


I was thinking of switch defense when I drafted. I have a team that is extraordinarily long, agile, and smart. Anderson is the weak spot as noted. I would give Anderson a try out there at strategic points to see if his 3's and spacing was worth more than his defense cost, but I'd agree that with him out there you'd be strongly considering a pick & roll approach.


I think guys like Porter, Gobert and Stockton will be issues as well. Gobert is obviously a beast inside but when I pull him out with the screen Nash can put him on skates.

Also, as Doctor MJ doesn't really have a huge post-threat to worry about, I'm comfortable playing Prince or Pierce at the 4 for 10 minutes a game, giving me up to 4 lights out shooters with Walton and Nash. That will be like my equivalent of the death lineup for Golden State.


Just because LeBron can do everything else well doesn't mean he isn't an interior threat, I'll be curious what you do if you don't commit Walton to him.


Sure, he was great in the post in 2013 and 2014. But I do have quick defenders who can help and recover and make things somewhat more challenging. I've already said I expect LeBron to kill it individually.

I don't see a way for him to stop this offense.


You've got a great team no doubt.

When it comes to LeBron, just having Walton there will make it harder for LeBron to drive and put that 79% rim percentage to use. He had a similar impact against Erving in the 1977 Finals. While Doc was able to score and have some posters, Walton was enough of a presence to keep the Blazers in it.

LeBron'll see a combination of Prince and Pierce. Actually, every second Prince is on the floor with LeBron, he'll have instructions to incessantly hound him. Obviously 2014 LeBron > 2004 Kobe but Prince was proven to be a devastating man defender in the 2004 Finals and here he has a better anchor backing him up than either of the Wallace brothers. If LeBron decides to post-up, yeah, I will send Bosh to double, he is quick enough to recover.


All of this makes sense, but LeBron's teammates here make those options way less useful than they'd be against normal NBA competition. Doubling LeBron has never worked out well for anyone unless they can leave a man who is utterly useless as a scoring threat. None of the players on my roster qualify as that.

Voters should remember that that all of my players are scoring threats. No most of them can't iso, but that's purposeful. I wanted guys who were known for hurting the opponent when the opponent was focused on an alpha.

Nash is a liability, but it's not as if he's guarding Magic or Penny. I'll put him on Middleton, and if MJ wants to go to him extra, that's fine, it keeps the ball out of LeBron's hands.


Middleton is 6 foot 8 and can hit from 3 when he's open. If Nash is guarding him, he'll literally have a clear shot pretty much all the time.

It's not keeping it out of LeBron's hands when LeBron gets an assist for a 3.

Generally speaking, I don't expect to shut down LeBron, I think he'll get his efficient 27-28 ppg, but the thing is that Doctor MJ's team really lacks creation outside of him. He has shooters in Middleton/Anderson/Porter but the fact is that none of them can create for themselves. The entire team is insanely dependant on LeBron's penetration. Stockton doesn't have a reliable PnR partner to do the damage he is capable of.


When you say "creator" here to me it implies making something from nothing. As in, the defense has you covered as well as possible, so now it's up to someone to make the best of it. The problem with that thinking here is that the only for that to not be LeBron is if you double him, and the moment you do that I have smart players all around him who can exploit the 4-on-3 advantage.

Just because they aren't iso guys doesn't mean they are adept at teamplay. I chose them specifically because of how they fit together as a team.

Even if they run a Stockton/LeBron pick and roll, I have no issue with Walton or Bosh coming out to help, since MJ doesn't really have the inside threats to punish me.


Incidentally I see now reason why I can't do Stockton/LeBron pick & rolls. While I expect my primary attack to be LeBron-centered, pick & roll is something that basically everyone can do because the other players on the team don't really need to change their approach when we use that technique.

Re: No inside threats. You're thinking to literally. I'm not going to attack you on the inside with other guys going one on one in the post. If you vacate the interior I'll have guys swoop in for easy pass-dunks. I specifically didn't want a class post-scoring center because I prefer to have that space available.

I'll note again that while I'm unsure if Anderson will be able to hang in this match up, there's no doubting the spacing damage he'd do to you here.

If I stay at home on the shooters, defend LeBron 1 on 1 as well as possible, this should be relatively straightforward. This team reminds me a bit of a souped up version of the 2009 Cavs. This sort of team would be devastating in a regular league, but not in an all-time league where everyone has multiple elite threats.


Whether you're talking about the real NBA or this super-league, the rule about defending LeBron one-on-one is the same:

If he's bigger and stronger than the man he's guarding, he will own that guy.

You've said you're not using Walton in this capacity, so the one-on-one thing just won't be an option for you. It's going to come down how well others can help without opening up the court too much for my other guys. And again you've got a great team, but so do I.

You may feel some pain as we rip your defensive schemes apart...

Overall

I applaud Doctor MJ for building a balanced team around LeBron, but I just can't see them defending me effectively. LeBron will get his, but the players around him are relatively limited, making it easier for me to slow his offense down.

I honestly think this would look a lot like the 2014 Finals. LeBron would win one game by himself, but then his team would drown in a barrage of layups and 3s.


As mentioned, with any well-built team in this league, there's no way to really do great against them defensively. ardee's team will have a lot of success...but I really don't see what room there is to talk as if the players I have are limited.

Or rather I should say: There's always this push-pull in these leagues. Do you pick all alphas, or do you build a real team? I would actually say ardee has built a real team as well so I don't want to knock him, but I do think fit and strategy are more problematic for him than myself. I have more guys who excel in off-ball roles, and I have by FAR the best scoring option in the on-ball role.

Re: like 2014 finals. I think it's crucial to understand that the Heat were basically out of gas in that series. They developed a strategy together that required vast amounts of energy on defense, and between 4 straight years of finals trips and aging, it just ran out of juice.

I'll add that all of my players are in their 20s except John Stockton, and this Stockton still made All-D and would continue to be exceptionally effective for another half decade.

[/quote]

To be honest, drza summed up my thoughts on the whole defensive section rather well.

I won't double LeBron unless it's extreme circumstances and if I do, it'll be with guys who are quick enough to do the help and recover thing.

I have great one on one defenders who can at least make him work for it with a powerful anchor. LeBron isn't going to score 45 ppg here. Even if he gets his usual points on good efficiency with largely single coverage, I just don't think he'll be in a position to create enough for his teammates, who are all very dependent on him.

MJ, you have a great and balanced team, and I think you'd beat more than a few of the other teams in the top half of the bracket. I just believe that I have too many weapons here.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#10 » by ardee » Sun Jun 4, 2017 4:00 pm

Doc, thanks for having the judges wait for my rebuttal.

I think they can vote now.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#11 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Jun 4, 2017 11:01 pm

Alright to the extent I have time I'll respond to folks here other than ardee (ardee let me know if you want to go another round)

drza wrote a lot of great stuff, but in his main analysis of my team there was one thing that I thought was problematic in his analysis:

drza wrote:2) Doc's squad feels like a Megatron version of the 2009/2010 Cavs. LeBron is himself, and that team was predicated on having strong role players around him as either shooters or defensive parts. Stockton isn't the volume scorer that a hot Mo Williams could be, but in every other way he's WAY better. He'd be a smart and high-efficiency off-ball shooter, and obviously he's a great floor general when LeBron is playing off ball. Middleton/Jones/Gobert is an outstanding combo of positional defense and finishing ability on offense. The Connie as LeBron-junior off the bench is brilliant, and there's a lot of frontcourt versatility. Not a lot of backcourt depth, though.


Re: lack of backcourt depth. Thanks for bringing that up, let me share my thinking here:

In general, longer guys are the best at guarding shorter guys. Obviously if there's a massive quickness differential it's an issue, but we've found that in the post handcheck era equally-sized guards just can't guard each other. While at first glance it might seem Stockton is the only guard on the roster, when you break down what "guard" actually means it's not really an issue. Middleton, Porter, LeBron, and Connie would all be able to do a solid job on guarding guards.

I also don't see an issue on the offensive end. I have plenty of playmakers, and good luck trying to full court press a team with this many tall, smart players.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#12 » by ardee » Mon Jun 5, 2017 5:54 pm

Bump for the judges

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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#13 » by penbeast0 » Mon Jun 5, 2017 6:10 pm

All right, let's look at these teams:

Outside scoring: both teams have good range and the ability to spread the floor. Klay Thompson's ability to get hot and spam 3's from everywhere probably gives ardee a slight edge

Inside scoring: Neither team is built around post scoring, LeBron's slashing and inside game probably gives Doc a slight edge.

Playmaking: I don't like Stockton playing off ball much, it minimizes the impact of arguably the greatest playmaker of all time. Walton playing off ball works better; but Stockton guarding Nash will be more effective than Nash guarding Stockton so if anything I still give a slight edge to Doctor MJ.

Rebounding: Neither team is a strong rebounding team for an ATL. LeBron is great at the SF but Bobby Jones is below average at PF and of the rest of Doctor MJ's team only Connie Hawkins really stands out. Similarly Walton for ardee's team is a defensive board stud but Bosh doesn't actually do much better than Jones . . . Bosh is taller but Jones a better jumper and more active. Small edge to Doc, mainly for his bench.

Defense: Can ardee hide Steve Nash? Everyone else on both teams is a good defender, some are great (ok, except Ryan Andersen). Middleton is just too big for Nash but Stockton guards Nash better than Nash guards Stockton. On the other hand, one of the criticisms often heard against Stockton is that he doesn't step up his scoring even when needed. I'd give the edge to Doctor MJ.

Overall/Intangibles: I like Doc's fit better. Jones and Middleton are ideal glue guys, Connie Hawkins gives you explosiveness off the bench, lots of defenders but no explosiveness on the other side.

Vote: Doctor MJ
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#14 » by BasketballFan7 » Mon Jun 5, 2017 6:13 pm

Doctor MJ is another squad that I expected to see on the top half of the bracket. I had him in my top 5.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#15 » by ardee » Mon Jun 5, 2017 9:05 pm

So far it's 1-1 assuming drza doesn't change his vote.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#16 » by ElGee » Tue Jun 6, 2017 2:56 am

I've been avoiding this one. Doc through me for a curveball with his team.

He took building around LeBron literally. However the thing that I think he missed was a stretch big that could open the floor and pop off of PnR with LBJ. There were components of this in the 09/10 Cleveland teams with Ilgauskus and Antawn Jamison even (surrounded by shooters), and certainly Bosh or small-ball in Miami and now Love and small-ball in Cleveland. I think these are the critical pillars for taking LeBron-ball to its max, and I'm concerned about those things not being here.

What I like? Rudy is an awesome defender and I think can roll/dive/cleanup much like TT does right now. I also think having a second player like Stockton who can shoot and pressure the defense when LBJ doesn't have to helps tremendously, and we've seen that with Wade and now Kyrie. You don't want to give Stockton a bunch of open 3's. And I low the Middleton pick as a 3-and-d guy, although others will have to weigh in on how good they think he is defensively as I don't have a great feel for it. I like Anderson in spot duty as a stretch big to juice the offense, and I like the idea of a backup LBJ in Connie.

So that seems like I like a lot. But the Bobby Jones pick is killing me. He took 17 3-pointers in his career. He was a 70% FT shooter in 1977. Make Kyrie slightly different in Stockton, replace Smith with Middleton, swap TT for Gobert as mentioned, and now take out Love for a guy that kind of roams/cuts/passes well. This seems subtle but I think it's the different between like the 08 Lakers with/without Vlad Rad on the court. The finishing (in 3-balls) goes away and the spacing goes away, which has a trickle-down effect on a driver like LeBron. I also don't love Stockton as the complement in that having better iso scorers than LeBron provides a great dimension change (Wade, Kyrie) and Stockton is more redundant with him in that sense. Leave it to Doc to build a team that elicits so much analysis from me.

Ardee's team is...well, let me talk this through also. He's saying he's going to play Nash-ball. If we believe him, the 2005-07 Suns immediately come to mind. I've talked extensively at how much of an edge playing a 4 at the 5 was for Phoenix, and that will go away here. (So you have to look at like the Kurt Thomas/Diaw lineups maybe.) Klay is such a great fit because he's 90% off ball. Pierce can play off ball but like, say, Joe Johnson also has on-ball and isolation skills from the mid-post. Bosh plays the Amare roll, but he's an offensive downgrade there across the board. (Amare was a phenomenal PnR player!) Walton is the wild-card.

Let me pause and say that I'm calling peak Bill Walton the wild card. This has to be a good thing for Ardee. Walton's BBIQ is super high, he's a phenomenal passer and well I agree you don't want him in iso offense in this league, he's got a post game to finish on mismatches, he's a great diver/rebounder and he has a mid-range shot if you collapse too hard on Nash. This is a well crafted team and might be scary.

Still, I wonder what Ardee's most frequently use PnR is to start the offense? If Bosh, as implied, that's putting Bobby Jones into a high PnR...which seems just fine, especially with Stockton's hedging ability. (See, this is where that cheating lineup that Ramsay used in Buffalo and D'Antoni adopted is so lethal -- put Amare in a PnR with Rudy and it changes the entire floor dynamic and Nash is GOAT-level at exploiting your soft spot.) I think Doc's fairly well-equipped to defense this actually. LeBron, when locked in, eats up so much off-ball space defensively that he'll clog the weak side passing lanes.

OK, then this matchup gets super fun because of the cross-matching. Nash on Middleton so Klay is on Stock? Klay's a great man defender but I'm not sure how he'd weigh in getting PnRed to death by Stockton, or conversely how valuable he'd be helping off Stockton when LeBron goes at Pierce. Pierce can hold his own against LeBron, but 2014 James is going to do his thing against basically any single defender -- the way to nullify him IMO is to build a wall like the Spurs have tried and take away his lanes so he has to shoot. The idea of the 1-3 PnR is pretty enticing too.

I kind of want to hear more from the coaches before voting. Doc, how many minutes to see Hawk playing? Do you have a small-ball lineup?
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#17 » by ardee » Wed Jun 7, 2017 8:07 am

ElGee wrote:Bosh plays the Amare roll, but he's an offensive downgrade there across the board. (Amare was a phenomenal PnR player!)


Should note that Bosh is a much better mid-range shooter than Amare. That's why we'd go pick and pop as much as pick and roll depending on the situation, this would create the openings you are talking about that Amare did, drawing the defender out 16-23 feet away from the basket.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#18 » by BasketballFan7 » Wed Jun 7, 2017 10:07 am

ardee wrote:
ElGee wrote:Bosh plays the Amare roll, but he's an offensive downgrade there across the board. (Amare was a phenomenal PnR player!)


Should note that Bosh is a much better mid-range shooter than Amare. That's why we'd go pick and pop as much as pick and roll depending on the situation, this would create the openings you are talking about that Amare did, drawing the defender out 16-23 feet away from the basket.


Amare was an elite mid-range shooter and was over 47% from there in his prime. It's impossible to be much better than that from the midrange. I think Bosh was better from the midrange but Amare was an insane offensive piece.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#19 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jun 8, 2017 1:01 am

ElGee wrote:I kind of want to hear more from the coaches before voting. Doc, how many minutes to see Hawk playing? Do you have a small-ball lineup?


Let's see, some lineups I had on my mind:

Stockton/Middleton/LeBron/Jones/Gobert - starters, obviously

MIddleton & Porter can switch easily
LeBron & Connie can switch as noted.

My small ball lineup would have Anderson at the 5 likely with LeBron at the 4. Anderson can of course play the 4 as well.

When LeBron is at the 4, one option is to have Connie at the 3, though on offense Connie would likely be playing a role similar to Jones does at the 4.

The only guy I haven't mentioned is Stockton. Clearly when he's out it will be a long ball lineup, and we'd be looking to use switches even more so. My role players like Middleton would be assigned to Nash for most of the time so as to conserve the energy of LeBron, but it would be a team effort.

I don't enjoy breaking these things down by minutes for the same reason that, frankly, I'm finding myself frustrated trying to defend Anderson as a pick. I think having a stretch big makes a ton of sense, but how much he'd play would completely depend on how much benefit he gave us compared to the cost, and it's just so hard to say. If I say he plays a lot then people are going to focus on his defensive issues. If I say he hardly plays, then he's a wasted pick. All that makes an argument for never drafting someone like him...but of course in the real world stretch bigs always have these issues and that doesn't stop them from having some great success whenever they aren't the focal point of opponent strategy.

Connie will definitely be playing whenever LeBron is out and whenever Stockton is out. Basically 2 out of those 3 guys will be out there at all times. While Connie isn't the same player as Stockton, he's a true star and he's got great playmaking.

I could see it being something like:

LeBron 36 MPG
Stockton 30 MPG
Connie 30 MPG

Last note on what you mentioned about Bobby Jones' shooting:

Something that I basically just accept is that some people tend to judge shooting ability based on what the numbers back then literally say. The numbers in 1977 say Jones is an average free throw shooter with no 3-point background. And that is what it is.

I just don't think it's that hard to learn how to shoot open 3's. I mean, the original 3 & D guy is Bruce Bowen. Bowen is objectively speaking a worse shooter by all measures than Jones except that he obviously spent a ton of time practicing open 3s. If Bowen can do it, I tend to think almost anyone can.

Now that doesn't mean I'm assuming Andre Drummond can, but anyone who spent a lot of time on the perimeter, had good coordination, work ethic, BBIQ, and solid shooting data, I mean, why wouldn't they be able to hit these 3s?

Not saying that the odds are 100%, but I just don't see much point in treating it like it was 0% when the real odds are far closer to 100% than to 0%.

Now as I say that, there is always the question looming overhead about what it means to bring guys from the past into the present. I'm on record saying I think it's silly to use unadjusted FGA to put limits on the team because of the way it penalizes players of the past in a project specifically designed to include players of the past. It didn't make sense last time, and it didn't make sense to repeat.

(I say this as someone who knows how hard it is to run project and who appreciates whenever anyone runs one. I've probably made problematic choices at least as bad in any project I've ever ran so I don't claim to be superior in the role...but that doesn't mean I can't bitch a little, right? ;) )

Last time I really felt like I got burned because I built my team around all eras of players, so this time I believe 5 of my 8 players are from the 2010s. That's ridiculously present-focused, and yet still, it might have been wiser to focus even more on the present because of the fact that 3 & D is the way to go, and the role only exists in contemporary players. But I find the idea absurd. Clearly there were plenty of talents in the past who could have played the role and I find it way more interesting to actually place great players in roles I think they could thrive in than to stick to literal roles.
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Re: FGA Restricted All-Time Fantasy Draft Playoffs WCR1: (2) ardee vs (7) Doctor MJ 

Post#20 » by ElGee » Thu Jun 8, 2017 2:29 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
ElGee wrote:I kind of want to hear more from the coaches before voting. Doc, how many minutes to see Hawk playing? Do you have a small-ball lineup?


Let's see, some lineups I had on my mind:

Stockton/Middleton/LeBron/Jones/Gobert - starters, obviously

MIddleton & Porter can switch easily
LeBron & Connie can switch as noted.

My small ball lineup would have Anderson at the 5 likely with LeBron at the 4. Anderson can of course play the 4 as well.

When LeBron is at the 4, one option is to have Connie at the 3, though on offense Connie would likely be playing a role similar to Jones does at the 4.

The only guy I haven't mentioned is Stockton. Clearly when he's out it will be a long ball lineup, and we'd be looking to use switches even more so. My role players like Middleton would be assigned to Nash for most of the time so as to conserve the energy of LeBron, but it would be a team effort.

I don't enjoy breaking these things down by minutes for the same reason that, frankly, I'm finding myself frustrated trying to defend Anderson as a pick. I think having a stretch big makes a ton of sense, but how much he'd play would completely depend on how much benefit he gave us compared to the cost, and it's just so hard to say. If I say he plays a lot then people are going to focus on his defensive issues. If I say he hardly plays, then he's a wasted pick. All that makes an argument for never drafting someone like him...but of course in the real world stretch bigs always have these issues and that doesn't stop them from having some great success whenever they aren't the focal point of opponent strategy.

Connie will definitely be playing whenever LeBron is out and whenever Stockton is out. Basically 2 out of those 3 guys will be out there at all times. While Connie isn't the same player as Stockton, he's a true star and he's got great playmaking.

I could see it being something like:

LeBron 36 MPG
Stockton 30 MPG
Connie 30 MPG

Last note on what you mentioned about Bobby Jones' shooting:

Something that I basically just accept is that some people tend to judge shooting ability based on what the numbers back then literally say. The numbers in 1977 say Jones is an average free throw shooter with no 3-point background. And that is what it is.

I just don't think it's that hard to learn how to shoot open 3's. I mean, the original 3 & D guy is Bruce Bowen. Bowen is objectively speaking a worse shooter by all measures than Jones except that he obviously spent a ton of time practicing open 3s. If Bowen can do it, I tend to think almost anyone can.

Now that doesn't mean I'm assuming Andre Drummond can, but anyone who spent a lot of time on the perimeter, had good coordination, work ethic, BBIQ, and solid shooting data, I mean, why wouldn't they be able to hit these 3s?

Not saying that the odds are 100%, but I just don't see much point in treating it like it was 0% when the real odds are far closer to 100% than to 0%.

Now as I say that, there is always the question looming overhead about what it means to bring guys from the past into the present. I'm on record saying I think it's silly to use unadjusted FGA to put limits on the team because of the way it penalizes players of the past in a project specifically designed to include players of the past. It didn't make sense last time, and it didn't make sense to repeat.

(I say this as someone who knows how hard it is to run project and who appreciates whenever anyone runs one. I've probably made problematic choices at least as bad in any project I've ever ran so I don't claim to be superior in the role...but that doesn't mean I can't bitch a little, right? ;) )

Last time I really felt like I got burned because I built my team around all eras of players, so this time I believe 5 of my 8 players are from the 2010s. That's ridiculously present-focused, and yet still, it might have been wiser to focus even more on the present because of the fact that 3 & D is the way to go, and the role only exists in contemporary players. But I find the idea absurd. Clearly there were plenty of talents in the past who could have played the role and I find it way more interesting to actually place great players in roles I think they could thrive in than to stick to literal roles.


All good points. But they've left me at an impasse as a judge . Maybe it also explains why you feel your teams are under appreciated (although the last time I thought you had one of the better teams). I see what you're driving at, but how do we judge that? Is someone like Jones assumed to be a low-end guy that can make 3's (eg 32-33%), or he is average because of his mid-range game?

In other words, I think it's fine to "translate" a remotely decent shooter into a guy that can at least shoot a 3. But Iman Shumpert learned to be a 33-34% 3-point shooter, and he doesn't have gravity and doesn't kill you from the corner or anything. I think you're saying we should at least assume Jones would translate to something like that, correct?
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