2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread IV

eagereyez · Post #701 » by **eagereyez** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 1:45 pm

Unbreakable99 wrote:
eagereyez wrote:I've seen Vorp used more on the Sixers board than on all of the bigger boards combined. I don't think I'll ever know why.

Should we just go by points and rebounds and assists and just count stats?

I mean that's basically what you're doing with Vorp. It's a box score based stat. Good for offensive purposes, really bad at measuring defense.

Unbreakable99 · Post #702 » by **Unbreakable99** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 1:48 pm

eagereyez wrote:
Unbreakable99 wrote:
eagereyez wrote:I've seen Vorp used more on the Sixers board than on all of the bigger boards combined. I don't think I'll ever know why.

Should we just go by points and rebounds and assists and just count stats?

I mean that's basically what you're doing with Vorp. It's a box score based stat. Good for offensive purposes, really bad at measuring defense.

Well RBPM and VORP and win shares are good measurements to what a player does while he's on the court. Just because a player averages 11 points it doesn't mean he's worse than someone who averages 19 points. You have to look at the whole picture. Scoring is valuable but so is defense.

Negrodamus · Post #703 » by **Negrodamus** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 1:51 pm

Fultz is a bigger risk to being an absolute stud in the NBA. Ball is a lower risk to being a great role player. At the end of the day, I'm not terribly interested in either.

LloydFree · Post #704 » by **LloydFree** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 2:01 pm

Kobblehead wrote:

Read on Twitter

Team seems to be really high on Bell.

Bell will be long gone by the #36 pick, so they'll have to trade up into the mid-1st to get him.

eagereyez · Post #705 » by **eagereyez** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 2:06 pm

Unbreakable99 wrote:
eagereyez wrote:
Unbreakable99 wrote:
Should we just go by points and rebounds and assists and just count stats?

I mean that's basically what you're doing with Vorp. It's a box score based stat. Good for offensive purposes, really bad at measuring defense.

Well RBPM and VORP and win shares are good measurements to what a player does while he's on the court. Just because a player averages 11 points it doesn't mean he's worse than someone who averages 19 points. You have to look at the whole picture. Scoring is valuable but so is defense.

I think you mean RPM? Vorp is a poor measure of defense because box score stats are a poor measure of defense. It is impossible to tell that CP3 is a better defender than Westbrook by looking at the box score.

Vorp rated Westbrook's last season as the best of all time, ahead of any by MJ, Shaq, LBJ, etc. I strongly disagree with that. I'd even argue that a few players were better than him last season (Harden, Kawhi). Westbrook has shown us the limits of box score metrics.

Unbreakable99 · Post #706 » by **Unbreakable99** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 2:26 pm

eagereyez wrote:
Unbreakable99 wrote:
eagereyez wrote:I mean that's basically what you're doing with Vorp. It's a box score based stat. Good for offensive purposes, really bad at measuring defense.

Well RBPM and VORP and win shares are good measurements to what a player does while he's on the court. Just because a player averages 11 points it doesn't mean he's worse than someone who averages 19 points. You have to look at the whole picture. Scoring is valuable but so is defense.

I think you mean RPM? Vorp is a poor measure of defense because box score stats are a poor measure of defense. It is impossible to tell that CP3 is a better defender than Westbrook by looking at the box score.

Vorp rated Westbrook's last season as the best of all time, ahead of any by MJ, Shaq, LBJ, etc. I strongly disagree with that. I'd even argue that a few players were better than him last season (Harden, Kawhi). Westbrook has shown us the limits of box score metrics.

Stats don't tell the whole story but it's a good measure. You still have to go with what you see but stats aren't biased and don't care who you are. They are unbiased and may show you things your eyes don't see. The stats show Okafor stinks. My eyes tell me Okafor stinks. It matches up. But sometimes you might think someone is good but the stats may show he's not as good. Stats aren't the end all be all because if it was that simple then there would be no need for scouts. All a GM would have to do is go by what analytics say and just go off that.

Kobblehead · Post #707 » by **Kobblehead** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 2:35 pm

LloydFree wrote:Bell will be long gone by the #36 pick, so they'll have to trade up into the mid-1st to get him.

Even if you thought he would be available at #36, it might be shrewd to move back into the first round to select him and get him locked into a rookie scale contract.

Given how high an impact he had throughout his collegiate career, he's the type of talent that would be advised to not sign a longterm, low figure deal.

cksdayoff · Post #708 » by **cksdayoff** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 3:29 pm

what's the difference between Thomas Robinson coming out of Kansas and Jordan Bell. I was really high o. TRob when he came out. I'm almost certain Jordan Bell will be much better. I really want Bell in a sixes uni

George Lynch ver 2.0 imo

Unbreakable99 · Post #709 » by **Unbreakable99** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 3:38 pm

cksdayoff wrote:what's the difference between Thomas Robinson coming out of Kansas and Jordan Bell. I was really high o. TRob when he came out. I'm almost certain Jordan Bell will be much better. I really want Bell in a sixes uni

IMO Bell seems more athletic and bouncy and a better shot blocker.

Post #710 » by **Sixerscan** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 3:43 pm

Robinson has never figured out the discipline to play in a limited role for whatever reason. If he could just stay in the lane of rim protector and roll man, the way Holmes has, he could carve out a role in the NBA, same with Bell.

Kobblehead · Post #711 » by **Kobblehead** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 3:58 pm

cksdayoff wrote:what's the difference between Thomas Robinson coming out of Kansas and Jordan Bell. I was really high o. TRob when he came out. I'm almost certain Jordan Bell will be much better. I really want Bell in a sixes uni

George Lynch ver 2.0 imo

Bell is just a much more positively impactful basketball player. Also seems to be night and day in terms of basketball IQ and self-awareness. Bell is a more complete defensive player because he has the ability to protect the rim and switch out on the perimeter. T-Rob wasn't much of a lane deterrent in college or in the NBA.

I was team John Henson back then. T-Rob was just a rebounding specialist that put up empty offensive stats with a ridiculous 30% usage. His teammate Jeff Withey was the better basketball player and has been the better pro.

phiphan · Post #712 » by **phiphan** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 4:09 pm

Bell's assist rate/total appears to be promising vs. his usage rate -- looks like he can be a reasonably reliable cog in the offense. Can anyone comment on his role in Oregon's offense?

HotelVitale · Post #713 » by **HotelVitale** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 4:35 pm

Kobblehead wrote: I was team John Henson back then. T-Rob was just a rebounding specialist that put up empty offensive stats with a ridiculous 30% usage. His teammate Jeff Withey was the better basketball player and has been the better pro.

TRob also shot ridiculously well from midrange and 3 that year IIRC, and lots of ppl were sure he'd be a good stretchy shooter in the NBA despite some serious doubts about it. It was one of those cases where ppl talked themselves into a shaky assumption because of college success--they ignored small samples, bad FT%, and small college defenses because it was exciting to imagine how cool it'd be if he could shoot like Dirk. Turns out he was just a rebounder and energy guy on offense, which is what a sober assessment would've told anyone who wasn't looking at the stats too much.

cksdayoff · Post #714 » by **cksdayoff** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 4:48 pm

phiphan wrote:Bell's assist rate/total appears to be promising vs. his usage rate -- looks like he can be a reasonably reliable cog in the offense. Can anyone comment on his role in Oregon's offense?

seems like he scores without getting many touches. I've seen clips of his jumper. He has some touch on his shot.

Kobblehead · Post #715 » by **Kobblehead** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 4:53 pm

His jumper isn't non-existent. He's just more content being a finisher. If he had Chris Boucher's range, he'd be a surefire lotto pick.

LloydFree · Post #716 » by **LloydFree** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 5:47 pm

cksdayoff wrote:what's the difference between Thomas Robinson coming out of Kansas and Jordan Bell. I was really high o. TRob when he came out. I'm almost certain Jordan Bell will be much better. I really want Bell in a sixes uni

George Lynch ver 2.0 imo

Bell is similar to George Lynch at UNC, based on demeanor and that they were both the clear leaders of their teams without being scorers. Both played with angry purpose. But Bell is well above Lynch with regards to athletic tools.

mksp · Post #717 » by **mksp** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 7:25 pm

Can you imagine trading #3 for #5 and #10 and drafting Isaac + Ntilikina?

Simmons
Ntilikina
Covington
Isaac
Embiid

Mannnnnnnn

Ericb5 · Post #718 » by **Ericb5** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 7:46 pm

mksp wrote:Can you imagine trading #3 for #5 and #10 and drafting Isaac + Ntilikina?

Simmons
Ntilikina
Covington
Isaac
Embiid

Mannnnnnnn

It's a compelling thought for sure. I might take Tatum at 5 instead though, and Ntilikina is my third choice between Smith, Monk and Ntilikina.

In the end though I think that I would probably just stay at 3 and take Jackson. We have the Lakers 2018 and Kings 2019 picks to further inject talent into the roster in the coming years. Trading back to 5 and 10 though is definitely my second choice, as opposed to staying at 3, and taking someone else.

Unbreakable99 · Post #719 » by **Unbreakable99** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 7:46 pm

Kobblehead wrote:
LloydFree wrote:Bell will be long gone by the #36 pick, so they'll have to trade up into the mid-1st to get him.

Even if you thought he would be available at #36, it might be shrewd to move back into the first round to select him and get him locked into a rookie scale contract.

Given how high an impact he had throughout his collegiate career, he's the type of talent that would be advised to not sign a longterm, low figure deal.

Ok. Let's assume the Sixers trade back into the 1st round and got pick 26. Would you rather get Derrick White or Jordan Bell?

broseph13 · Post #720 » by **broseph13** » Thu Jun 8, 2017 8:02 pm

mksp wrote:Can you imagine trading #3 for #5 and #10 and drafting Isaac + Ntilikina?

Simmons
Ntilikina
Covington
Isaac
Embiid

Mannnnnnnn

Serious question: Has anyone here even seen this Ntilikina fella even play in a full game? If not, why are we even mentioning him as a guy this team needs to get? You can't go by a 5 minutes of highlights...