Duke4life831 wrote:damecurry wrote:Duke4life831 wrote:
2-5 for me is basically a wash, I got Fultz, Ball, Tatum and Jackson as all neck and neck. If you make an argument for any of those guys over any of the other 3, I could totally get it and probably wouldnt disagree. But if right now gun to my head, who do I think will be looked at as the best players in this draft 10 years from now Id go
1. DSJ
2. Ball
3. Tatum
4. Fultz
5. Jackson
Ball is just a winner wherever he goes and I think he is going to be living in the playoffs every year (much sooner than people think) and he is going to be running one of the better offenses probably as well. Tatum's explosiveness around the rim is the only reason I dont have him #1. To me he is really good everywhere else in his game and just because hes one of the better ISO scorers we have seen in awhile doesnt mean he is a ball stopper on offense. Fultz I think is going to be a really good scorer but I can see people turning on him and saying you cant win with him (like Kyrie, IT) because of his defense and I dont think he will be a great primary facilitator. Jackson really all depends on that jumper, if it ever becomes consistent watch out, but I think he will end up being like a 35% shooter from 3 and will be good enough to make an impact offensively and not hurt teams, but not enough to be a star offensively.
You are much, much lower on Fultz than I, I think his defensive issues were largely systematic/team related and he is a very underrated passer but otherwise I largely agree with your assessment. DSJ is my clear #2 guy behind Fultz, I think he easily has the most upside as nebulous a concept as that is, and he can tear it up at the next level, another guy who's problems were largely situation/team-related imo. Tatum I'm not quite as high on but I might take him over JJ just because I trust his jumper a lot more and if JJ just can't shoot at all then he's basically MKG if he fills out and toughens up, and that's just not that valuable imo. SO I'd probably go: 1) Fultz, 2) DSJ, 3) Ball, 4) Tatum, 5) JJ, I might be tempted to toss Issac up there but I don't think his upside is that high, he'll be a 3&D 4, not a wing creator or something, so yeah that'd be my list. And I will admit I haven't seen nearly as much of these guys as you but I have seen a few games of all the top prospects as well as quite a bit of film/cuts/draftexpress videos/youtube highlights and read a lot of scouting reports and such. That'd be my prediction for the future and thus also my big board probably.
I am definitely a little lower on Fultz than most and I will be the first to acknowledge Im in the minority with that thinking. I think Fultz is a good passer, I just dont think he has the facilitating mindset, I think he has a score 1st, 2nd and 3rd mindset. Which is totally fine with me because he is a fantastic scorer.
But I totally see why you and others have him at #1. Again I find it very difficult to argue these top 5 guys because I think they all have legit claims as being the top guy. Even before the year I thought this was a class where you could make an argument for 5-6 guys for the top pick. Giles was the 6th guy and as the season played out we saw that was no longer the case. But these 5 guys are all legit. I think its really splitting hairs and more what style of player you like between the 5 of them.
Well I still can't act like I saw a bunch more of him than you but I did watch as much washington as I could (had some pac-12 network access being on the west-coast) and saw about 8 or 9 full games as well as a lot of tape of him so I'm more confident on him than most. I think in the right system he will be a shockingly good facilitator. He averaged 6 apg when guys would literally just fumble the ball away or brick wide open 3s constantly, and he still tried to get them the ball. I think his score 1st mentality did manifest itself at times as a result of being sick to death of watching his great set-ups come to nothing, anyone would. I think people really undervalue just how awful that team was aside from him and how that would affect anyone's play. In a system like Boston where you have a ton of good finishers just waiting for someone to create for them, I would honestly not be surprised if in his 3rd year he's starting, they've let IT go, and he's averaging 22/5/8 and leading them deep in the playoffs. Idk, we'll see but I really believe you get him with a bunch of good players, complimentary players, and an awesome coach who will force him to be an unselfish guy who makes the right play whether for himself or teammates, he'll blossom way beyond the craziness we saw in college this year.
Sorry to derail a DSJ thread with Fultz talk, but I think they're actually really similar in this aspect, both have a lot of ? because they played for bad teams in rough situations with poor coaches and both clearly gave up defensively and at times loafed or didn't give full effort or make the smart/best plays. Is that a defect of their character/play-style that will continue in the nba or is it situational, temporary and destined to change drastically when they enter a much better situation. I'm not sure but I'm betting on the latter in both cases because I actually do think those two have tools and abilities beyond the rest of this class. I'm not huge on Tatum becoming an amazing wing scorer, a modern melo or something, and if he's not that what is he? A slightly better Rudy Gay? I'm just not sure what he's actually great at that has a ton of value in the modern game. JJ I think the shot is a huge concern, Ball I don't think can be a primary scorer/attacker off the dribble. He'll be great, I do think a slightly better shooting Jason Kidd is very likely, the kid is basically a basketball genius by all acounts and I just don't see how that doesn't work so I like him at 3 cause his floor is pretty darn high to me. I mean a better shooting, worse defending Rubio is really his floor in my mind and that's a valuable player. So I do have a prettty clear 1-3, 4-6 is murky with the wings for me Tatum/JJ/Issac. After that it gets much murkier for me, I don't how I feel about most of the later lottery guys, Lauri I like but can he play defense or is he a limited, situational big? Frank N I'm just not sure about, is a he a pg? Can he be a true 2? Monk should be a very solid pickup in the 8-10 range but a disaster if he goes like 3 as some are predicting. Idk I'm derailing again, better quit while I'm... just this far behind...
But yeah, Love DSJ, if someone gets him in the 8-10 range (please don't be sacto, worst situation for him) they're going to get a massive, franchise changing steal in my mind. He would wreak absolute havoc in Dallas, that dude with Carlisle? That's a future top 10 player man, okay maybe 15 but seriously that would be great. If they take Frank N over him they're nuts. Hoping he comes off before 9 though, he'd make a ton of sense in Orlando where they can move Payton to the backup role he belongs in. I'd take him at 3 if I were philly or 4 if I were Phoenix but that doesn't seem to be the vibe out there so we'll see. Hoping the best for the kid, I think he's misunderstood and will really explode if he gets the right situation.