Draft Discussion Part 3

[Kerrsed]

DraftExpress has the best reports, scouting and videos which go with that but NBADraft.net has more accurate mocks, imo.

DE still go with us picking Fox in their latest mock, even after it`s clear we are not taking him for the whole last week.

DX isn't updating that often, last update was after early entry candidate withdrawal deadline. Nbadraft,net is very rarely really more accurate, especially with players selected after the lottery and 2nd round. then again, DX have posted that they are more concerned with predicting players that will be picked (and they always are in that regard) rather than specific spot they are being picked. In any case, it's all a guesswork anyway.

[Son of Ra]

Why are so many people hell-bent on moving Knight by attaching an asset? It's not like we're one piece away from contention and he eats up the salary needed to get that piece. For all we know he's not a locker room cancer or detrimental in any other way. Let's ride out his contract, which isn't even that big an albatross by today's standards, and deal with it when the time comes. It'll be way cheaper getting rid of him by then as well.

[NTB]

Why are so many people hell-bent on moving Knight by attaching an asset? It's not like we're one piece away from contention and he eats up the salary needed to get that piece. For all we know he's not a locker room cancer or detrimental in any other way. Let's ride out his contract, which isn't even that big an albatross by today's standards, and deal with it when the time comes. It'll be way cheaper getting rid of him by then as well.

Whenever he is on the court, he is hurting the team. Kills the ball movement, makes silly turnovers, weird shots, inefficient play. I don't want him to steal minutes from Ulis. Also I'm not looking for a good deal for Knight. It is the same thing with Markieff, addition by subraction.

[Funky Tut]

Does DX know something we don't know? Why do they have us taking Fox when he didn't even workout for us? My dream scenario would be to fool SAC that we are taking a guard they covet and take their 5 and 10 off them but I don't think that is going to happen.

[RaisingArizona]

Clapping on the bench.... well we know who earl "were tracking high fives" Watson wants the suns to select

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app

Yeah, I don't really see what there is about him not to like. I feel if we pass on him there is a good chance he IS that guy that ends up being the next talent that people passed up on like Giannis or Kawhi. I like Tatum ok and think he is safe, but I think Isaac will be a guy that may not be great at first but will be a team first guy who does everything and could be the best player on any team in the lottery within 2-3 years, with the exception of maybe Embiid and Towns.

Ginobli may get his wish. Again, I saw the guy D'up a guard and he slid laterally, shifting left and right opening up his hips like NFL DB, all the while staying in an athletic position with a solid base.......at that height?!? He didnt look awkward a slow like he did when he picked Tatum's pocket.

[Son of Ra]

Why are so many people hell-bent on moving Knight by attaching an asset? It's not like we're one piece away from contention and he eats up the salary needed to get that piece. For all we know he's not a locker room cancer or detrimental in any other way. Let's ride out his contract, which isn't even that big an albatross by today's standards, and deal with it when the time comes. It'll be way cheaper getting rid of him by then as well.

Whenever he is on the court, he is hurting the team. Kills the ball movement, makes silly turnovers, weird shots, inefficient play. I don't want him to steal minutes from Ulis. Also I'm not looking for a good deal for Knight. It is the same thing with Markieff, addition by subraction.

Oh I agree with you on all but the Markieff points (for now), iirc I was one of the first to jump on the Knight hate train (but admittedly he pulled me back in briefly when he had these awesome 20ish games). I don't want him to ever see the court again but I don't see the pressing need to move him just yet. And definitely not for an asset.

[Qwigglez]

I don't post a lot, but wanted to give my .02 (thanks Qwigglez for the push):

Right now, my board is:
1) Ball
2) Isaac
3) Tatum

If it gets to the point that Ball is taken by the Lakers and the 76ers take Tatum, for example, then we should absolutely trade with Sacramento for the #5 and #10, still get Isaac and then get Collins or Markannen with the #10.

If we end up just going to with Ball or Isaac at the #4, I think it would be a good idea for us to get a pick in the late 1st and get Jordan Bell. If that happens, just sell one or both the 2nd's and use whatever remains as a draft-and-stash. Done.

No problem Chaplin! I actually came across your profile by pure happenstance looking at last year's draft thread and noticed you posted once. I checked out your profile and saw you recently checked in so I thought I would you give a ring and to urge you to post more.
Anyhow, I don't believe in this rumor of the Kings willing to trade their two picks to move up. They have absolutely no need to, unless they are targeting Jackson.
Isaac would be great IMO if we didn't already have Bender and Chriss. This is why I prefer Tatum because he offers a different skill set and I believe is more NBA ready right now. I don't think Ball is falling past the Lakers despite rumors of LA not wanting him.

[NTB]

Why are so many people hell-bent on moving Knight by attaching an asset? It's not like we're one piece away from contention and he eats up the salary needed to get that piece. For all we know he's not a locker room cancer or detrimental in any other way. Let's ride out his contract, which isn't even that big an albatross by today's standards, and deal with it when the time comes. It'll be way cheaper getting rid of him by then as well.

Whenever he is on the court, he is hurting the team. Kills the ball movement, makes silly turnovers, weird shots, inefficient play. I don't want him to steal minutes from Ulis. Also I'm not looking for a good deal for Knight. It is the same thing with Markieff, addition by subraction.

Oh I agree with you on all but the Markieff points (for now), iirc I was one of the first to jump on the Knight hate train (but admittedly he pulled me back in briefly when he had these awesome 20ish games). I don't want him to ever see the court again but I don't see the pressing need to move him just yet. And definitely not for an asset.

You say just bench him until we have a deal? If he doesn't play I'm fine with him staying.

[Qwigglez]

Why are so many people hell-bent on moving Knight by attaching an asset? It's not like we're one piece away from contention and he eats up the salary needed to get that piece. For all we know he's not a locker room cancer or detrimental in any other way. Let's ride out his contract, which isn't even that big an albatross by today's standards, and deal with it when the time comes. It'll be way cheaper getting rid of him by then as well.

Whenever he is on the court, he is hurting the team. Kills the ball movement, makes silly turnovers, weird shots, inefficient play. I don't want him to steal minutes from Ulis. Also I'm not looking for a good deal for Knight. It is the same thing with Markieff, addition by subraction.

Oh I agree with you on all but the Markieff points (for now), iirc I was one of the first to jump on the Knight hate train (but admittedly he pulled me back in briefly when he had these awesome 20ish games). I don't want him to ever see the court again but I don't see the pressing need to move him just yet. And definitely not for an asset.

Knight definitely had an off-year. I think our best bet is to see if he can handle being the 6th man this year. I was actually quite surprised by some of his passes he made to Chriss this season. Several of them were highlight reels, though I'm too lazy to find them right now.

[bwgood77]

Looking at the new mocks with a lot of my favorite 2nd rounders (particularly the big men) jumping into the 1st, I think taking Evans in round 2 may make a lot of sense if the top 3 are Fultz, Ball, and Jackson. Take Isaac or Tatum at 4. Trade Bledsoe for a 2nd lottery pick. Draft Lauri or Collins. Evans in the 2nd.

Then Knight starts at PG and maybe redeems his value, Ulis is the primary backup, and Evans 3rd string. If you can then move Knight, you promote both.

Yeah, in a mock simulation offseason I took Jawun Evans at 32. His pick n roll game is supposed to be great. I don't know if I'd trade Bledsoe yet, but it would give you more time to consider that. If he was traded I would give Ulis the chance to start first. And I am also sure other point guards would be available for trade or in FA if we wanted a vet there to play some minutes (whether a vet or younger guy). I wish Evans had a little more size though.

[Mulhollanddrive]

I like Tatum as a prototype because if he hits his peak stats will be fairly predictable (as a scoring SF All-Star):

24 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, 1 steal / 49% from 2, 35% from 3, 85% FT.

Something like that, we're not asking him to invent anything new.

With Jackson, Ball, Fox, Isaac they're still mysteries as to what their peak stats look like because there are risks with deficiencies and also their games are unique so there's a unicorn factor to them like Bender, he can do this / this / this but where does it ultimately show?

[Years90Suns]

I believe Divac is showing a fake interest on Fox, so he can trade up and get either Ball, Jackson, Tatum... probably, as anybody else, he thinks Fox is a step behind the others, so he is spreading the word of him being interested in Fox...
Although he can think he is the next Gary Payton, as with the pal from Minny... Divac being Divac...

[Saberestar]

Read on Twitter

[Son of Ra]

Whenever he is on the court, he is hurting the team. Kills the ball movement, makes silly turnovers, weird shots, inefficient play. I don't want him to steal minutes from Ulis. Also I'm not looking for a good deal for Knight. It is the same thing with Markieff, addition by subraction.

Oh I agree with you on all but the Markieff points (for now), iirc I was one of the first to jump on the Knight hate train (but admittedly he pulled me back in briefly when he had these awesome 20ish games). I don't want him to ever see the court again but I don't see the pressing need to move him just yet. And definitely not for an asset.

You say just bench him until we have a deal? If he doesn't play I'm fine with him staying.

Yep, that's what I meant.

[JMac1]

Yeah, I don't really see what there is about him not to like. I feel if we pass on him there is a good chance he IS that guy that ends up being the next talent that people passed up on like Giannis or Kawhi. I like Tatum ok and think he is safe, but I think Isaac will be a guy that may not be great at first but will be a team first guy who does everything and could be the best player on any team in the lottery within 2-3 years, with the exception of maybe Embiid and Towns.

Ginobli may get his wish. Again, I saw the guy D'up a guard and he slid laterally, shifting left and right opening up his hips like NFL DB, all the while staying in an athletic position with a solid base.......at that height?!? He didnt look awkward a slow like he did when he picked Tatum's pocket.

I see ya.

[JMac1]

Chad Ford draft tiers based on voting from team scouts, GMs, etc

Tier 1 (Potential superstars)
Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA
Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington

Tier 2 (All-Star potential)
De'Aaron Fox, PG, Fr., Kentucky
Jonathan Isaac, F, Fr., Florida State
Josh Jackson, G/F, Fr., Kansas
Lauri Markkanen, PF, Fr., Arizona
Malik Monk, G, Fr., Kentucky
Frank Ntilikina, PG, France
Dennis Smith, PG, Fr., North Carolina State
Jayson Tatum, F, Fr., Duke

This is the largest tier 2 we've ever had. This tier is reserved for players with All-Star potential. However, each player in tier 2 has a weakness that some teams believe will keep him from being a superstar.

In Fox and Jackson's case, it's the lack of a consistent jumper. Isaac needs to add strength and find a position. Markkanen and Monk are too one-dimensional right now. Smith and Tatum might be too selfish with the ball. Ntilikina isn't an elite athlete.

Fox, Jackson and Tatum all received only tier 1 and tier 2 votes. Isaac, Monk and Smith all were unanimous in tier 2. Markkanen and Ntilikina had some tier 3 votes, but the majority were tier 2. Zach Collins received a lot of votes in tier 2, but just barely missed the cut.

Having 10 players in the first two tiers is extraordinary for a draft class.

Tier 3 (NBA starters)
OG Anunoby, F, So., Indiana
Zach Collins, F/C, Fr., Gonzaga
Harry Giles, PF, Fr., Duke
Luke Kennard, G, So., Duke
Donovan Mitchell, G, So., Louisville

This is a solid tier 3, but with the exception of Zach Collins, most teams see a significant drop-off here. This tier is usually reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers.

Having 15 players in the first three tiers makes for a very strong draft. The closest we got was in 2014 when we had 12 players in the top three tiers. Of this group, Collins was the only player not to receive tier 4 votes, so the consensus breaks down at this point.

The biggest issue for scouts was ranking Anunoby and Giles. Both have had significant knee injuries. Giles is actually healed and ready to play, but teams are worried because he has had two major knee surgeries and didn't look nearly as explosive at Duke last season. Anunoby hurt his knee in January and could miss his rookie season.

Based on sheer talent, virtually every scout and front office executive had Giles as either a tier 1 or tier 2 prospect. And all but one had Anunoby as a tier 2 guy. If they get healthy, they're steals in tier 3. But their previous injuries put a cloud over their draft stock.

Tier 4 (Starters, high-level rotation players)
Jarrett Allen, C, Fr., Texas
Ike Anigbogu, C, Fr., UCLA
John Collins, PF, So., Wake Forest
Justin Patton, C, Fr., Creighton

This is a smaller tier 4 group than usual.

Teams are really all over the place on these guys. John Collins received a lot of votes for tier 3 (and none in tier 5), but the majority of teams had these players ranked in tier 4.

All three of the others -- Allen, Anigbogu and Patton -- barely made the cut into tier 4, with just over 50 percent voting them in tier 4 and the rest in tier 5. None of them received tier 3 votes.

Tier 5 (Rotation players)
Edrice Adebayo, PF, Fr., Kentucky
Tony Bradley, C, Fr., North Carolina
Terrance Ferguson, SG, Australia
Frank Jackson, G, Fr., Duke
Justin Jackson, SF, Jr., North Carolina
TJ Leaf, PF, Fr., UCLA
Anzejs Pasecniks, C, Latvia
Ivan Rabb, PF, Fr., Cal
Caleb Swanigan, PF, So. Purdue
D.J. Wilson, PF, Jr., Michigan

This next group is a bit small for a tier 5, but it's small in part because of how big the top three tiers are. This area of the draft is typically reserved for rotation players who are unlikely to start for good teams but could become solid role players off the bench.

In this draft, that's roughly picks Nos. 20-30. A few players in this tier received tier 4 votes. They included Jackson, Leaf and Pasecniks. And a couple of players on this list received tier 6 votes, including Rabb and Swanigan.

Tier 6 (potential first-rounders)
Jordan Bell, PF, Jr., Oregon
Jonah Bolden, SF, Australia
Thomas Bryant, F/C, So. Indiana
Jawun Evans, PG, So., Oklahoma State
Josh Hart, SG, Sr., Villanova
Isaiah Hartenstein, PF, Germany
Tyler Lydon, SF, So., Syracuse
Semi Ojeleye, F, Jr., SMU
Alec Peters, F, Sr., Valpariso
Monte Morris, PG, Sr., Iowa State
Devin Robinson, SF, Jr., Florida
Derrick White, PG, Jr., Colorao

This tier has the players that at least one team told me they had ranked in their top 30. A few -- Bell, Evans, Hartenstein, Lydon and Ojeyle -- got tier 5 votes. The rest are likely second-round picks.

Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect, but the teams that run it have found that it improves their performance. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared to traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it seems like a much more precise tool of gauging which players a team should draft.

http://insider.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/19602916/ranking-markelle-fultz-lonzo-ball-more-freshmen-tiers-2017-nba-draft

So using this logic I'd rank

1. Tatum easy to correct, pass more, that's it
2. DSJ same thing, pass more....however injury
3. Issac....he will fill out. Play 3-4 and small ball 5

Is having a bad shot worse than being one dimensional? Depends. For me though...

4. Jackson
5. Fox
6. Lauri, harder to find a guy who can shoot like that at 7'
7. Monk.
8. French guy....was is he even in there if not an athlete with no dominant skills?

[Funky Tut]

I agree with some of you that Isaac may be that dude that people can't believe teams passed on.

[bwgood77]

Chad Ford draft tiers based on voting from team scouts, GMs, etc

Tier 1 (Potential superstars)
Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA
Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington

Tier 2 (All-Star potential)
De'Aaron Fox, PG, Fr., Kentucky
Jonathan Isaac, F, Fr., Florida State
Josh Jackson, G/F, Fr., Kansas
Lauri Markkanen, PF, Fr., Arizona
Malik Monk, G, Fr., Kentucky
Frank Ntilikina, PG, France
Dennis Smith, PG, Fr., North Carolina State
Jayson Tatum, F, Fr., Duke

This is the largest tier 2 we've ever had. This tier is reserved for players with All-Star potential. However, each player in tier 2 has a weakness that some teams believe will keep him from being a superstar.

In Fox and Jackson's case, it's the lack of a consistent jumper. Isaac needs to add strength and find a position. Markkanen and Monk are too one-dimensional right now. Smith and Tatum might be too selfish with the ball. Ntilikina isn't an elite athlete.

Fox, Jackson and Tatum all received only tier 1 and tier 2 votes. Isaac, Monk and Smith all were unanimous in tier 2. Markkanen and Ntilikina had some tier 3 votes, but the majority were tier 2. Zach Collins received a lot of votes in tier 2, but just barely missed the cut.

Having 10 players in the first two tiers is extraordinary for a draft class.

Tier 3 (NBA starters)
OG Anunoby, F, So., Indiana
Zach Collins, F/C, Fr., Gonzaga
Harry Giles, PF, Fr., Duke
Luke Kennard, G, So., Duke
Donovan Mitchell, G, So., Louisville

This is a solid tier 3, but with the exception of Zach Collins, most teams see a significant drop-off here. This tier is usually reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers.

Having 15 players in the first three tiers makes for a very strong draft. The closest we got was in 2014 when we had 12 players in the top three tiers. Of this group, Collins was the only player not to receive tier 4 votes, so the consensus breaks down at this point.

The biggest issue for scouts was ranking Anunoby and Giles. Both have had significant knee injuries. Giles is actually healed and ready to play, but teams are worried because he has had two major knee surgeries and didn't look nearly as explosive at Duke last season. Anunoby hurt his knee in January and could miss his rookie season.

Based on sheer talent, virtually every scout and front office executive had Giles as either a tier 1 or tier 2 prospect. And all but one had Anunoby as a tier 2 guy. If they get healthy, they're steals in tier 3. But their previous injuries put a cloud over their draft stock.

Tier 4 (Starters, high-level rotation players)
Jarrett Allen, C, Fr., Texas
Ike Anigbogu, C, Fr., UCLA
John Collins, PF, So., Wake Forest
Justin Patton, C, Fr., Creighton

This is a smaller tier 4 group than usual.

Teams are really all over the place on these guys. John Collins received a lot of votes for tier 3 (and none in tier 5), but the majority of teams had these players ranked in tier 4.

All three of the others -- Allen, Anigbogu and Patton -- barely made the cut into tier 4, with just over 50 percent voting them in tier 4 and the rest in tier 5. None of them received tier 3 votes.

Tier 5 (Rotation players)
Edrice Adebayo, PF, Fr., Kentucky
Tony Bradley, C, Fr., North Carolina
Terrance Ferguson, SG, Australia
Frank Jackson, G, Fr., Duke
Justin Jackson, SF, Jr., North Carolina
TJ Leaf, PF, Fr., UCLA
Anzejs Pasecniks, C, Latvia
Ivan Rabb, PF, Fr., Cal
Caleb Swanigan, PF, So. Purdue
D.J. Wilson, PF, Jr., Michigan

This next group is a bit small for a tier 5, but it's small in part because of how big the top three tiers are. This area of the draft is typically reserved for rotation players who are unlikely to start for good teams but could become solid role players off the bench.

In this draft, that's roughly picks Nos. 20-30. A few players in this tier received tier 4 votes. They included Jackson, Leaf and Pasecniks. And a couple of players on this list received tier 6 votes, including Rabb and Swanigan.

Tier 6 (potential first-rounders)
Jordan Bell, PF, Jr., Oregon
Jonah Bolden, SF, Australia
Thomas Bryant, F/C, So. Indiana
Jawun Evans, PG, So., Oklahoma State
Josh Hart, SG, Sr., Villanova
Isaiah Hartenstein, PF, Germany
Tyler Lydon, SF, So., Syracuse
Semi Ojeleye, F, Jr., SMU
Alec Peters, F, Sr., Valpariso
Monte Morris, PG, Sr., Iowa State
Devin Robinson, SF, Jr., Florida
Derrick White, PG, Jr., Colorao

This tier has the players that at least one team told me they had ranked in their top 30. A few -- Bell, Evans, Hartenstein, Lydon and Ojeyle -- got tier 5 votes. The rest are likely second-round picks.

Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect, but the teams that run it have found that it improves their performance. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared to traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it seems like a much more precise tool of gauging which players a team should draft.

http://insider.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/19602916/ranking-markelle-fultz-lonzo-ball-more-freshmen-tiers-2017-nba-draft

So using this logic I'd rank

1. Tatum easy to correct, pass more, that's it
2. DSJ same thing, pass more....however injury
3. Issac....he will fill out. Play 3-4 and small ball 5

Is having a bad shot worse than being one dimensional? Depends. For me though...

4. Jackson
5. Fox
6. Lauri, harder to find a guy who can shoot like that at 7'
7. Monk.
8. French guy....was is he even in there if not an athlete with no dominant skills?

I still don't understand why Ford keeps saying DSJ needs to pass more. He averaged the second most assists of top pg prospects behind Ball.

Sure he also scored a lot, but he didn't have nearly as good as teammates as, say, Fox, who averaged 4.6 assists as opposed to DSJ's 6.2. The most in the ACC, more than point guards at top schools like Duke, NC, etc, with more really good players to pass to as well.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Chad Ford draft tiers based on voting from team scouts, GMs, etc



http://insider.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/19602916/ranking-markelle-fultz-lonzo-ball-more-freshmen-tiers-2017-nba-draft

So using this logic I'd rank

1. Tatum easy to correct, pass more, that's it
2. DSJ same thing, pass more....however injury
3. Issac....he will fill out. Play 3-4 and small ball 5

Is having a bad shot worse than being one dimensional? Depends. For me though...

4. Jackson
5. Fox
6. Lauri, harder to find a guy who can shoot like that at 7'
7. Monk.
8. French guy....was is he even in there if not an athlete with no dominant skills?

I still don't understand why Ford keeps saying DSJ needs to pass more. He averaged the second most assists of top pg prospects behind Ball.

Sure he also scored a lot, but he didn't have nearly as good as teammates as, say, Fox, who averaged 4.6 assists as opposed to DSJ's 6.2. The most in the ACC, more than point guards at top schools like Duke, NC, etc, with more really good players to pass to as well.

Sounds like ball dominance to me. I hate that in teammates as well as in professional point guards.

[JMac1]

Chad Ford draft tiers based on voting from team scouts, GMs, etc



http://insider.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/19602916/ranking-markelle-fultz-lonzo-ball-more-freshmen-tiers-2017-nba-draft

So using this logic I'd rank

1. Tatum easy to correct, pass more, that's it
2. DSJ same thing, pass more....however injury
3. Issac....he will fill out. Play 3-4 and small ball 5

Is having a bad shot worse than being one dimensional? Depends. For me though...

4. Jackson
5. Fox
6. Lauri, harder to find a guy who can shoot like that at 7'
7. Monk.
8. French guy....was is he even in there if not an athlete with no dominant skills?

I still don't understand why Ford keeps saying DSJ needs to pass more. He averaged the second most assists of top pg prospects behind Ball.

Sure he also scored a lot, but he didn't have nearly as good as teammates as, say, Fox, who averaged 4.6 assists as opposed to DSJ's 6.2. The most in the ACC, more than point guards at top schools like Duke, NC, etc, with more really good players to pass to as well.

Well I say if you can't make sense out of it, then it's bs. He probably just can't get himself to place him higher because he has biases just like everyone else on the planet. So he harps on his non passing skills or willingness thereof. You make a great point about the passing juxtapose to Fox....