Pre-Top 100 Project Lists (post your ATL)

[Texas Chuck]

My guess would be recency bias.

He literally posted the reason why and you still felt the need to come and insult him with this? I know you are a Wade guy, but this seems needless, no?

Did you ever think I didn't see it? I'm not insulting anyone so relax.

if someone accused you of bias, you wouldn't feel insulted?

[trex_8063]

1. MJ
2. Kareem
3. Russell
4. LeBron

5. Shaq

6. Hakeem
7. Garnett
8. Duncan
9. Robinson
10. Wilt

11. Magic
12. Oscar
13. West
14. Kobe

15. Malone
16. Dr. J
17. Bird
18. Dirk
19. Barkley

I'm going to post the weighted averages later today, I think. I can only include your picks in the "top 6" grouping unless you provide me with a pick for #20 (in which case I can include your picks in the "top 20" grouping, too). I also need you to specify which Malone it is there at #15. I think it's Mailman (since you mention something about amazing longevity, though Moses had some awfully nice longevity, too, so idk for sure).

[Hornet Mania]

Only my top 15ish are relatively solid (but not beyond doubt), after that it changes with the argument. I'm looking forward to seeing the consensus opinion of which players are in the 16-40 range and where they land. Here is my tentative top 15:

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Tim Duncan
4. Shaquille O'Neal
5. Lebron James
6. Magic Johnson
7. Bill Russell
8. Wilt Chamberlain
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Kobe Bryant
11. Larry Bird
12. Oscar Robertson
13. Julius Erving
14. David Robinson
15. Karl Malone

Players I almost included, definitely will be top 20: Moses Malone, KG, Dirk

[Jaivl]

Tentative list, still a lot of work to do:

Tier 1
LeBron James
Kevin Garnett
Tim Duncan
Michael Jordan

Spoiler:

2-way offensive GOATs + elite defense
+ 2-way defensive GOATs + elite offense

Tier 2
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Shaquille O'Neal
Bill Russell
Hakeem Olajuwon
David Robinson

Spoiler:

1-way GOAT bigs (I don't think highly of Kareem's defense overall)
+ Hakeem (elite 2-way)

Tier 3
Magic Johnson
Kobe Bryant
Larry Bird
Wilt Chamberlain
Dirk Nowitzki
Oscar Robertson
Jerry West

Spoiler:

1-way GOAT perimeter
+ 1-way elite very longeve
+ Wilt

In-between
Charles Barkley
Karl Malone

Tier 4
Julius Erving
Chris Paul
Steve Nash
Dwyane Wade
Dikembe Mutombo
Patrick Ewing
Moses Malone
??

Spoiler:

1-way GOAT short prime
+ Wade/Erving (2-way very good)
+ Moses/Ewing (very good big)

[Quotatious]

I know that many of you guys disagree with Karl Malone being in top 10, as I have him, but consider this - if we look at regular season and playoffs 50/50, career-wise (which in fact puts relatively more emphasis on playoffs than it does on regular season, considering that the playoff sample is about 9-10 times smaller), if we compare Malone to players that are universally considered better than him, like Magic, Bird and Kobe, here's what we get:

Regular season WS:

Kobe has 73.6% of Karl's win shares
Magic has 66.4% of Karl's win shares
Bird has 62.1% of Karl's win shares

Playoff WS:

Karl has 70.5% of Magic's win shares (considering I'm weighing RS and playoffs 50/50, Karl has a relatively bigger edge in the regular season than Magic has in the playoffs, by 4.1%).
Karl has 81.2% of Kobe's win shares (again, Karl's RS edge outweighs Kobe's PS edge, by 7.6%)
Karl has Bird has 92.7% of Bird's win shares (Karl's RS edge is 30.6% larger than Larry's playoff edge)

Regular season VORP:

Bird has 77.7% of Karl's VORP
Magic has 75.5% of Karl's VORP
Kobe has 70.3% of Karl's VORP

Playoff VORP:

Karl has 62.9% of Magic's VORP
Karl has 72.9% of Larry's VORP
Karl has 80.0% of Kobe's VORP

So, Karl measures as better than Magic, Larry and Kobe based on Win Shares, worse than Magic and Bird based on VORP, but better than Kobe.

WS and VORP may not be perfect stats, but I don't think we have anything better for players before late 90s, when we start having RAPM.

Karl certainly has a good case against those guys.

[giordunk]

A couple of observations: I think a lot of you guys are trying to be too cute by not having Jordan at least top 3.

I think there's a very strong bias to the current pace and space era of basketball. I think a lot of post-up big men are being penalized, scorers are being penalized, and players who would thrive in pace and space are being overvalued (I think... Stockton, Garnett, and David Robinson to name a few)

I think it's important to remember if we were making this list even 10 years ago we would have had the 'big men rule' mentality and put an emphasis on Centers.

Of course, it's important to value new information and consider portability, but I think we're losing sight of previous player evaluating values.

Here's a list that I've compiled by averaging the ranks of close to 90 all-time ranking lists over the past few years. Only tinkering I've done is to trim the mean by taking out the top 10% and bottom 10% of ranks to take out the extreme values.

I'll probably make my own list later and post in the criteria thread.

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Wilt Chamberlain
4. Bill Russell
5. LeBron James
6. Shaquille O'Neal
7. Magic Johnson
8. Tim Duncan
9. Larry Bird
10. Hakeem Olajuwon
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Oscar Robertson
13. Jerry West
14. Kevin Garnett
15. Julius Erving
16. Karl Malone
17. Moses Malone
18. David Robinson
19. Charles Barkley
20. Dirk Nowitzki
21. Dwyane Wade
22. Bob Pettit
23. John Stockton
24. Elgin Baylor
25. John Havlicek
26. Scottie Pippen
27. Patrick Ewing
28. Stephen Curry
29. Kevin Durant
30. Rick Barry
31. Chris Paul
32. Isiah Thomas
33. Steve Nash
34. George Mikan
35. Clyde Drexler
36. Walt Frazier
37. Bob Cousy
38. Jason Kidd
39. Elvin Hayes
40. Gary Payton
41. Kevin McHale
42. Bill Walton
43. Allen Iverson
44. George Gervin
45. Dave Cowens
46. Artis Gilmore
47. Dwight Howard
48. Dolph Schayes
49. Paul Pierce
50. Tracy McGrady
51. Dominique Wilkins
52. Willis Reed
53. Reggie Miller
54. Bob Lanier
55. Wes Unseld
56. Robert Parish
57. Russell Westbrook
58. Bob McAdoo
59. Ray Allen
60. Pau Gasol
61. Adrian Dantley
62. Manu Ginobili
63. Nate Thurmond
64. Alonzo Mourning
65. Jerry Lucas
66. Paul Arizin
67. Dennis Rodman
68. Dikembe Mutombo
69. Sam Jones
70. Alex English
71. James Harden
72. Chauncey Billups
73. Billy Cunningham
74. Chris Webber
75. James Worthy
76. Pete Maravich
77. Shawn Marion
78. Ben Wallace
79. Grant Hill
80. Vince Carter
81. Walt Bellamy
82. Sidney Moncrief
83. Tiny Archibald
84. Dave DeBusschere
85. Bernard King
86. Hal Greer
87. Neil Johnston
88. Tony Parker
89. Earl Monroe
90. Bill Sharman
91. Joe Dumars
92. Elton Brand
93. Kevin Johnson
94. Chet Walker
95. Tom Heinsohn
96. Horace Grant
97. Carmelo Anthony
98. Chris Mullin
99. Shawn Kemp
100. Dennis Johnson

[mischievous]

He literally posted the reason why and you still felt the need to come and insult him with this? I know you are a Wade guy, but this seems needless, no?

Did you ever think I didn't see it? I'm not insulting anyone so relax.

if someone accused you of bias, you wouldn't feel insulted?

I always admit to my own biases.

[kayess]

1. MJ
2. Kareem
3. Russell
4. LeBron

5. Shaq

6. Hakeem
7. Garnett
8. Duncan
9. Robinson
10. Wilt

11. Magic
12. Oscar
13. West
14. Kobe

15. Malone
16. Dr. J
17. Bird
18. Dirk
19. Barkley

I'm going to post the weighted averages later today, I think. I can only include your picks in the "top 6" grouping unless you provide me with a pick for #20 (in which case I can include your picks in the "top 20" grouping, too). I also need you to specify which Malone it is there at #15. I think it's Mailman (since you mention something about amazing longevity, though Moses had some awfully nice longevity, too, so idk for sure).

Sorry - it was definitely K. Malone.

#20 is Pippen.

[Winsome Gerbil]

A couple of observations: I think a lot of you guys are trying to be too cute by not having Jordan at least top 3.

I think there's a very strong bias to the current pace and space era of basketball. I think a lot of post-up big men are being penalized, scorers are being penalized, and players who would thrive in pace and space are being overvalued (I think... Stockton, Garnett, and David Robinson to name a few)

I think it's important to remember if we were making this list even 10 years ago we would have had the 'big men rule' mentality and put an emphasis on Centers.

Of course, it's important to value new information and consider portability, but I think we're losing sight of previous player evaluating values.

Here's a list that I've compiled by averaging the ranks of close to 90 all-time ranking lists over the past few years. Only tinkering I've done is to trim the mean by taking out the top 10% and bottom 10% of ranks to take out the extreme values.

I'll probably make my own list later and post in the criteria thread.

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Wilt Chamberlain
4. Bill Russell
5. LeBron James
6. Shaquille O'Neal
7. Magic Johnson
8. Tim Duncan
9. Larry Bird
10. Hakeem Olajuwon
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Oscar Robertson
13. Jerry West
14. Kevin Garnett
15. Julius Erving
16. Karl Malone
17. Moses Malone
18. David Robinson
19. Charles Barkley
20. Dirk Nowitzki
21. Dwyane Wade
22. Bob Pettit
23. John Stockton
24. Elgin Baylor
25. John Havlicek
26. Scottie Pippen
27. Patrick Ewing
28. Stephen Curry
29. Kevin Durant
30. Rick Barry
31. Chris Paul
32. Isiah Thomas
33. Steve Nash
34. George Mikan
35. Clyde Drexler
36. Walt Frazier

Ahem -- bearing a startling resemblance to my Top 20/36 attempts above.

Averaging 90 Top 100 lists? Aside from the enormity of the work to average that many, where'd you even come across 90 Top 100 lists?

[wojoaderge]

My Top 50 tiers:

1. Kareem
2. MJ
3. LeBron

4. Wilt
5. Bill Russell
6. Larry Bird
7. Magic

8. George Mikan
9. Shaq
10. Kobe

11. Hakeem
12. Dr. J
13. Moses
14. Tim Duncan

15. The Big O
16. The Logo

17. Bob Pettit
18. The Admiral
19. Charles Barkley
20. Kevin Durant
21. Steve Nash
22. Steph Curry
23. The Mailman
24. Kevin Garnett
25. Dirk Nowitzki
26. Elgin Baylor
27. Dwyane Wade
28. Rick Barry
29. John Havlicek

30. Bill Walton
31. Dave Cowens
32. The Big E
33. The Iceman

Everyone under that is interchangeable

[Reservoirdawgs]

These are certainly some very interesting lists...I look forward to reading the justifications given for leaving Bill Russell outside of the Top 3. Based on these very preliminary lists, it's looking like Russell will be getting a lot of competition from Lebron and Wilt which I am currently struggling to understand but maybe some of the write-ups will sway me.

[SactoKingsFan]

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul Jabbar
3. LeBron James
4. Wilt Chamberlain
5. Magic Johnson
6. Larry Bird
7. Tim Duncan
8. Bill Russell
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Shaquille O'Neal
11. Oscar Robertson
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Karl Malone
15. Moses Malone
16. Julius Erving
17. David Robinson
18. Kevin Garnett
19. Dirk Nowitzki
20. Charles Barkley
21. George Mikan
22. Kevin Durant
23. Elgin Baylor
24. Bob Pettit
25. Dwyane Wade

Others in play for top 50: Steve Nash, Isiah Thomas, Gary Payton, Jason Kidd, John Stockton, Scottie Pippen, Kevin McHale, Bob Cousy, Elvin Hayes, Steph Curry, Russell Westbrook, Patrick Ewing, Bob McAdoo, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, George Gervin, Rick Barry, Clyde Drexler, John Havlicek, Willis Reed, Walt Frazier, Earl Monroe, Bill Walton, Dominique Wilkins, Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Tracy McGrady, Rasheed Wallace, Ben Wallace, Dikembe Mutombo, Adrian Dantley, Artis Gilmore, Grant Hill

Not very official at this point. Will see lots of movement here after hammering out my criteria and actually going through everyone + listening to the debates.

Durant at 22 is the highest I think I've seen him. What would you argue puts him ahead of D-Wade all-time wise?

I think I saw someone in this thread had Durant at 14.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

[Mike Hok]

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul Jabbar
3. LeBron James
4. Wilt Chamberlain
5. Magic Johnson
6. Larry Bird
7. Tim Duncan
8. Bill Russell
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Shaquille O'Neal
11. Oscar Robertson
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Karl Malone
15. Moses Malone
16. Julius Erving
17. David Robinson
18. Kevin Garnett
19. Dirk Nowitzki
20. Charles Barkley
21. George Mikan
22. Kevin Durant
23. Elgin Baylor
24. Bob Pettit
25. Dwyane Wade

Others in play for top 50: Steve Nash, Isiah Thomas, Gary Payton, Jason Kidd, John Stockton, Scottie Pippen, Kevin McHale, Bob Cousy, Elvin Hayes, Steph Curry, Russell Westbrook, Patrick Ewing, Bob McAdoo, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, George Gervin, Rick Barry, Clyde Drexler, John Havlicek, Willis Reed, Walt Frazier, Earl Monroe, Bill Walton, Dominique Wilkins, Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Tracy McGrady, Rasheed Wallace, Ben Wallace, Dikembe Mutombo, Adrian Dantley, Artis Gilmore, Grant Hill

Not very official at this point. Will see lots of movement here after hammering out my criteria and actually going through everyone + listening to the debates.

Durant at 22 is the highest I think I've seen him. What would you argue puts him ahead of D-Wade all-time wise?

I think I saw someone in this thread had Durant at 14.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

I've seen Jordan between 7 and 14, tough to beat that. He'll have his criteria I guess.

[THKNKG]

A couple of observations: I think a lot of you guys are trying to be too cute by not having Jordan at least top 3.

I think there's a very strong bias to the current pace and space era of basketball. I think a lot of post-up big men are being penalized, scorers are being penalized, and players who would thrive in pace and space are being overvalued (I think... Stockton, Garnett, and David Robinson to name a few)

I think it's important to remember if we were making this list even 10 years ago we would have had the 'big men rule' mentality and put an emphasis on Centers.

Of course, it's important to value new information and consider portability, but I think we're losing sight of previous player evaluating values.

Here's a list that I've compiled by averaging the ranks of close to 90 all-time ranking lists over the past few years. Only tinkering I've done is to trim the mean by taking out the top 10% and bottom 10% of ranks to take out the extreme values.

I'll probably make my own list later and post in the criteria thread.

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Wilt Chamberlain
4. Bill Russell
5. LeBron James
6. Shaquille O'Neal
7. Magic Johnson
8. Tim Duncan
9. Larry Bird
10. Hakeem Olajuwon
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Oscar Robertson
13. Jerry West
14. Kevin Garnett
15. Julius Erving
16. Karl Malone
17. Moses Malone
18. David Robinson
19. Charles Barkley
20. Dirk Nowitzki
21. Dwyane Wade
22. Bob Pettit
23. John Stockton
24. Elgin Baylor
25. John Havlicek
26. Scottie Pippen
27. Patrick Ewing
28. Stephen Curry
29. Kevin Durant
30. Rick Barry
31. Chris Paul
32. Isiah Thomas
33. Steve Nash
34. George Mikan
35. Clyde Drexler
36. Walt Frazier
37. Bob Cousy
38. Jason Kidd
39. Elvin Hayes
40. Gary Payton
41. Kevin McHale
42. Bill Walton
43. Allen Iverson
44. George Gervin
45. Dave Cowens
46. Artis Gilmore
47. Dwight Howard
48. Dolph Schayes
49. Paul Pierce
50. Tracy McGrady
51. Dominique Wilkins
52. Willis Reed
53. Reggie Miller
54. Bob Lanier
55. Wes Unseld
56. Robert Parish
57. Russell Westbrook
58. Bob McAdoo
59. Ray Allen
60. Pau Gasol
61. Adrian Dantley
62. Manu Ginobili
63. Nate Thurmond
64. Alonzo Mourning
65. Jerry Lucas
66. Paul Arizin
67. Dennis Rodman
68. Dikembe Mutombo
69. Sam Jones
70. Alex English
71. James Harden
72. Chauncey Billups
73. Billy Cunningham
74. Chris Webber
75. James Worthy
76. Pete Maravich
77. Shawn Marion
78. Ben Wallace
79. Grant Hill
80. Vince Carter
81. Walt Bellamy
82. Sidney Moncrief
83. Tiny Archibald
84. Dave DeBusschere
85. Bernard King
86. Hal Greer
87. Neil Johnston
88. Tony Parker
89. Earl Monroe
90. Bill Sharman
91. Joe Dumars
92. Elton Brand
93. Kevin Johnson
94. Chet Walker
95. Tom Heinsohn
96. Horace Grant
97. Carmelo Anthony
98. Chris Mullin
99. Shawn Kemp
100. Dennis Johnson

Saying that I am leaving Jordan out of the top three to be cute feels a little patronizing. For myself, I don't have much bias towards the modern era or being able to perform in it; I consider them all. Maybe I'm misinterpreting though.


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[SactoKingsFan]

My updated top 25

1. Jordan
2. Kareem
3. LeBron
4. Russell
5. Shaq
6. Duncan
7. Wilt
8. Magic
9. Hakeem
10. Garnett
11. Bird
12. Oscar
13. Kobe
14.West
15. K. Malone
16. D. Robinson
17. Dr. J
18. Dirk
19. Moses
20. Barkley
21. Wade
22. Stockton
23. Nash
24. Durant
25. Havlicek

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

[Blackmill]

WS and VORP may not be perfect stats, but I don't think we have anything better for players before late 90s, when we start having RAPM.

We have WOWYR. As Elgee describes it in his blog:

So you want to compare the all-time greats but have limited historical data? Not sure what to make of players before the Databall era, when plus-minus wasn’t available and, depending on how far back you go, the box score wasn’t even complete? Don’t worry, you’ve come to the right place.

In the first post in this series, we looked at WOWY data – a simple concept that isolates a player in order to gauge his value by using game-by-game results. But we were left with a fundamental problem — how do we estimate impact for players who weren’t injured or traded? It’s clear Jerry West provided significant lift, but what about someone like Bill Russell? How do we measure his non-box impact?

The answer? Regression, the same statistical method used on play-by-play data in the last few years to create irreplaceable impact metrics like RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus). Since comprehensive play-by-play does not exist before the late ’90’s, WOWYR instead regresses WOWY data, or game-by-game plus-minus data. (It’s better than WOWY, so it’s “wowier,” and stands for “With or Without You Regressed.”)

You'll notice that Malone isn't close to Magic. For that matter, Magic's prime WOWYR is the very best. And, while he's close to Bird, I suspect that is because Bird's data includes his post-injury years. In the smaller '53-'83 sample Bird is represented very well.

[ardee]

Top 30 (well, 31) is as far as I'm comfortable with right now:

I'm breaking my rankings up into tiers of guys who I could see any argument for being ranked over the other:

1. Bill Russell
2. Michael Jordan
3. LeBron James

4. Wilt Chamberlain
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
6. Magic Johnson

7. Tim Duncan
8. Kobe Bryant
9. Larry Bird
10. Shaquille O’Neal
11. Hakeem Olajuwon

12. Jerry West
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Dirk Nowitzki
15. Kevin Garnett

16. Julius Erving
17. David Robinson
18. Moses Malone

19. Karl Malone
20. Charles Barkley
21. Patrick Ewing

22. Dwyane Wade
23. Steve Nash
24. Chris Paul

25. John Stockton
26. Bob Pettit

27. Scottie Pippen
28. Elgin Baylor
29. John Havlicek
30. Rick Barry
31. Kevin Durant

The tough groups are the Doc, D-Rob, Moses one, the trio of guards at 22-24, and the swingmen at 27-3. The order of any of those could go either way.

Happy to answer any questions.

[ardee]

bump?

Might need to give some of us a bit of time? I'm definitely willing to put a list out there for people to see roughly where I am starting form but need time to put it together. I also need people to accept that I will not be voting exclusively off of my own rankings as I expect my opinions to change and be shaped by the project--some players it may change significantly.

But I can preview the top of the list for now and come back and edit in more later:

1. Russell
2. Mike
3. Lebron
4. Kareem
5. Duncan
6. Shaq

Would like to see the rest of yours Chuckster.

[Texas Chuck]

Tonight hopefully. Been tougher than I expected.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J120AZ using RealGM mobile app

[ardee]

Tentative list, still a lot of work to do:

Tier 1
LeBron James
Kevin Garnett
Tim Duncan
Michael Jordan

Spoiler:

2-way offensive GOATs + elite defense
+ 2-way defensive GOATs + elite offense

Tier 2
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Shaquille O'Neal
Bill Russell
Hakeem Olajuwon
David Robinson

Spoiler:

1-way GOAT bigs (I don't think highly of Kareem's defense overall)
+ Hakeem (elite 2-way)

Tier 3
Magic Johnson
Kobe Bryant
Larry Bird
Wilt Chamberlain
Dirk Nowitzki
Oscar Robertson
Jerry West

Spoiler:

1-way GOAT perimeter
+ 1-way elite very longeve
+ Wilt

In-between
Charles Barkley
Karl Malone

Tier 4
Julius Erving
Chris Paul
Steve Nash
Dwyane Wade
Dikembe Mutombo
Patrick Ewing
Moses Malone
??

Spoiler:

1-way GOAT short prime
+ Wade/Erving (2-way very good)
+ Moses/Ewing (very good big)

How come you count Hakeem as 1-way but Duncan and Garnett as 2 way?