Slartibartfast wrote:CrowderKeg wrote:Slartibartfast wrote:
This is potentially true, but not necessarily. If say we end up moving Jae for a pick/space to make room for Hayward you could make a good case that we'd be treading water.
Just gonna keep repeating it - everyone looking at Horford vs. Sully in a vacuum thought we were gonna skyrocket. Sure our record improved but our SRS actually declined.
I feel for stitches here, though none of his arguments matter if Hayward wants to come here. Hayward is their homegrown star. They drafted him, paid him and gradually put together a very nice and young team around him. They did just about everything right. And now they face losing him for nothing.
Pierce re-signed in an even worse scenario - coming off a crappy season with no positive trendline - and we loved him for it.
Looking at Horford's on/off numbers last season, there's a
net increase of 4.3 points per 100 possessions compared to
Sully's 2.6 the previous season.
Starting five with Horford also had a net rating of 7.5 while
previous year's starting five with Sully at center was only 2.4. Surprisingly, last season's starting five also rebounded slightly better as a unit compared to the one with Sully (edge in OREB%). Horford gave us a huge boost offensively, more than made up for the dip in defensive rating. Our stronger starting unit was offset by our weak, inexperienced bench though. While the ET-led bench group might not be able to score consistently and efficiently, those guys locked opponents up and forced a ton of turnovers. Last year's bench was poor on both sides of the ball, giving up leads on the regular. Stevens' insistence on not staggering his starters most of the season was frustrating to say the least. There was also an absurd amount of injuries to key players (which contributed to the non-staggering). I think that should factor in when comparing the performances of team 2016 vs. team 2017. Horford, who I thought wasn't fully utilized, was awesome for us esp. on offense. Relative health and bench, not so much.
That's why I said in a vacuum. Horford clearly the superior player to Sully. But people got so hung up on that upgrade in the offseason that they pooh-poohed going from mediocre-but-tough ET to Rozier/Brown and having no rebounder in the rotation.
And the same issues are posed by adding Hayward. In a vacuum we can say, hey, we're adding an All-Star for free! To a 53 win team! Just like we did with Horford. And we can imagine him replacing playoff disappointments just like we did with Sully - hey, this All-Star's replacing old man Amir and freaking Gerald Green - what's the downside?
Well there are plenty of downsides. Even though Amir was awful in the playoffs a la Fat Sully in 2016, he was an advanced stat stud during the RS (3rd on the team in RPM wins just as Sully was).
Nor is losing Amir (yeah, he's probably already lost to age - but the bottom line is the same) the only thing to pencil in. We're very likely going to have to ditch one or more of AB or Jae or KO to add Hayward, just like we ditched ET (no tears here - but again, bottom line). The natural choice is AB, and like ET, there's an advanced stat case to be made that he's a lot easier to replace than his outsized role would suggest. And like Jaylen, we'll have a top-shelf rook ready to put in his place.
But like ET, AB will be harder to replace than his footprint suggests and more time for young guys is likely to result in a stepback.
Put it all together and you can add an all-star for free and make no major short-term headway.
P.S.
As for injuries, they were worse than the prior year (but so was our SRS) but not really absurd. Remember 15/16 had it's own qualifying issues, including the awful David Lee experiment, Marcus Smart injuries, and lingering injury issues that made Jae and KO kinda suck down the stretch. Then of course injuries were a complete disaster in the first round.
Some of us expected Smart to make a leap in his game, take over ET duties, and steady that bench group. It didn't happen. The KO-Jerebko duo wasn't as formidable last season compared to previous seasons too.
The addition of Horford was great for the team and wasn't the reason why other aspects of the team stank (except for rebounding, transition baskets via DREB-leakouts). I will also take the upgrade from Hayward to Bradley (I'm a proponent of the Jae Stay Movement). It solves two clear areas of weakness -- shot creation and playmaking whenever defenders load up on IT and having someone competent (either Gordie or IT, maybe even Fultz too) run the offense for the entire 48. When IT sat, the offense died. The running joke of the Celtics being blowout averse last season
should stop. There wouldn't be too many offensive lulls that lose the team leads and momentum. That was a huge reason why our point differential and SRS don't line up with our win totals.
I can't predict how losing AB's onball defense would affect our overall defense, but looking at their respective numbers from last season, Hayward was better in DRPM (with a huge gap in ORPM). He also trumps AB in
defensive win shares (
AB's) and about the same in
defensive field goal % (
AB's).
My assumption of course is AB's the one to go to make room for Hayward due to contract status alone. A lot will depend on how the rest of the rotation shakes out and how early in the year Stevens settles into one. Amir will be a bigger loss than most would like to admit. He looked done towards the end of the season so I don't really recommend bringing him back. It's just we need a suitable, more reliable replacement. I'm not a fan of starting Jae at PF. I'd rather we get someone using MLE/trade then have Crowder as the backup for both forward positions.
IT's condition is still a question mark. There's no word whether he's having surgery or not. Fultz taking over the Rozier/Green minutes should be net neutral at least. I'm iffy on Zizic until we see him against actual NBA competition. I'm also counting on improvements from Brown and Smart (contract year, baby!). I don't envision Yabu to be in the rotation next season. Maybe not even on the roster.
