Prospects and trade discussion

[Ranma]

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Eric Longenhagen, FanGraphs.com (5/18/17)

Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles NL (Profile)
Level: Double-A Age: 22 Org Rank: 5 Top 100: 74
Line: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K

Notes
Buehler made five dominant but abbreviated starts at High-A, never superseding the 65-pitch mark. He was then shut down for 10 days before earning a promotion to Double-A. He’s been sitting 95-99 all spring with a plus-plus, hammer curveball and a hard slider/cutter anywhere from 87-91. He’s very athletic, balanced, and always appears in control of his body despite the high-effort nature of his delivery. He throws all three pitches for strikes. He has the stuff and enough polish to pitch in the big leagues this year in a multi-inning bullpen role — and, if his usage and early-season inning management is any indication, the Dodgers seem to think so, too.

Daily Prospect Notes: 5/18

[Quake Griffin]

Ranma.

I see Walker Buehler as that high upside pick you talk about.

I understand your frustrations about last year's 1st rounders but we have to give them credit for selecting this guy as a high upside pick.


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[Ranma]

Ranma.

I see Walker Buehler as that high upside pick you talk about.

I understand your frustrations about last year's 1st rounders but we have to give them credit for selecting this guy as a high upside pick.

You're right. I can't and haven't once complained at all about the Buehler pick. He was unexpectedly available since he was initially thought to be a top-10 pick for that draft class. One could argue that it's a lucky pick, but I was leaning toward Mike Nikorak myself at the time even though I absolutely had no problem with this selection, so we have to give Gasparino some level of credit for making the pick. However, I shudder to think what would have happened had Buehler not been available. Also, I would argue that Buehler was not seen as a high-upside pick at the time despite his polish and varied repertoire. His velocity was actually going down and their was little confidence that he'd add more constructive weight to his light frame. His spike in velocity post-TJ-surgery was a surprise to practically everyone following his development.

Would Gasparino have selected Kyle Funkhouser with the 24th overall pick in 2015, which I think I heard the Dodgers were actually considering at the time or would we have selected Ke'Bryan Hayes, whom it was known the Dodgers were interested in as a fallback plan if other prospects were not available? I strongly suspect Funkhouser would have been the prioritized choice and Hayes was not available by the time the Dodgers picked again 35th overall that year.

[Ranma]

I understand your frustrations about last year's 1st rounders but we have to give them credit for selecting this guy as a high upside pick.

I just posted 2 published mock drafts today in the 2017 MLB Draft thread and based on Baseball America's 2 most recent mock drafts, I'm encouraged to hear John Manuel mention the Dodgers in BPA mode and prioritizing upside over safety. That's exactly what I want to hear with regards to our early picks as long as we continue with our approach with the later picks as I've never really had a problem with those selections under Gasparino's tenure.

[Quake Griffin]

Ranma.

I see Walker Buehler as that high upside pick you talk about.

I understand your frustrations about last year's 1st rounders but we have to give them credit for selecting this guy as a high upside pick.

You're right. I can't and haven't once complained at all about the Buehler pick. He was unexpectedly available since he was initially thought to be a top-10 pick for that draft class. One could argue that it's a lucky pick, but I was leaning toward Mike Nikorak myself at the time even though I absolutely had no problem with this selection, so we have to give Gasparino some level of credit for making the pick. However, I shudder to think what would have happened had Buehler not been available. Also, I would argue that Buehler was not seen as a high-upside pick at the time despite his polish and varied repertoire. His velocity was actually going down and their was little confidence that he'd add more constructive weight to his light frame. His spike in velocity post-TJ-surgery was a surprise to practically everyone following his development.

Would Gasparino have selected Kyle Funkhouser with the 24th overall pick in 2015, which I think I heard the Dodgers were actually considering at the time or would we have selected Ke'Bryan Hayes, whom it was known the Dodgers were interested in as a fallback plan if other prospects were not available? I strongly suspect Funkhouser would have been the prioritized choice and Hayes was not available by the time the Dodgers picked again 35th overall that year.

That's your skepticism and a bit of speculation.

What actually happened in the war room is they drafted him, signed him under slot value, and invested in him when a lot of people doubted. I doubt they drafted him thinking his upside was limited at that point.


I am providing push back on the Buehler pick ONLY. They deserve credit for it and NO HATE for it at all. To do so gives them no credit for being able to think on the fly. Even if we determined they would have done something we hated if he wasn't there, we AT LEAST have to acknowledge if this narrow circumstance occurs again (Cal Quantrill was in a similar type of situation but DID NOT fall), we know they'd pick the high upside guy and invest in his TJS, recovery etc. etc.




http://www.dodgersnation.com/next-line-dodgers-pitching-prospect-walker-buehler/2017/05/23/
^^^
Buehler looking solid at AA so far.

[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

That's your skepticism and a bit of speculation.

What actually happened in the war room is they drafted him, signed him under slot value, and invested in him when a lot of people doubted. I doubt they drafted him thinking his upside was limited at that point.


I am providing push back on the Buehler pick ONLY. They deserve credit for it and NO HATE for it at all. To do so gives them no credit for being able to think on the fly. Even if we determined they would have done something we hated if he wasn't there, we AT LEAST have to acknowledge if this narrow circumstance occurs again (Cal Quantrill was in a similar type of situation but DID NOT fall), we know they'd pick the high upside guy and invest in his TJS, recovery etc. etc.

My skepticism and speculation of Billy Gasparino's first-round selections has a basis for them. My criticism of his overly conservative picks with early selections seem to have validity since it is being reported that the organization will supposedly focus on taking higher upside BPA prospects in the upcoming draft. Gasparino has a history of taking players who've fallen on draft boards from their national rankings. Delvin Perez aside, selections such as Hunter Renfroe, Walker Buehler, and Kyle Funkhouser would qualify as examples of this in previous first rounds.

I've acknowledged that Gasparino deserves some credit for the Buehler selection and I've already stated before that I've never had a problem with this particular pick, but it's hard for me to give him the benefit of the doubt since his selections fall in line with what he's done previously both with the Dodgers and Padres. Passing on J.P. Crawford in favor of Renfroe was something I wouldn't have approved of even back then. Taking Funkhouser with a first-round pick only to not sign him and watch him go in the fourth round the following year is an obvious blunder; nabbing Philip Pfeifer with a third-round pick in 2015 was another pick I absolutely hated and quickly proved to be a bust. I've already gone on about taking Gavin Lux over Perez.

At least when Logan White made picks I've hated like Chris Reed in the first round in 2011, I could rationalize it was because of Frank McCourt's cheapness because it was out of the norm for him based on this drafting philosophy and stated profiles of ideal prospects. Gasparino has stuck to his habits. If you want to give him credit, his selection of Trea Turner would be one I would use to sing his praises since luck was involved with Buehler. However, White's draft philosophy and record has Ned Colletti riding his coattails and garnered us Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager, and Cody Bellinger among others, but it also includes the selections of unsigned talent such as David Price, Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Melancon, and Kevin Gausman. It's little wonder that I prefer White's approach to Gasparino's.

To his credit and I believe I've said it before, Gasparino does a good job of finding quality in the later rounds. In my opinion, that is a harder part of drafting, so my criticism of his first-round picks is one that should be easy to fix. He's arguably doing a great job with the more important part of the draft process in identifying late-round talent. So you're right in the sense that I should give him more credit in terms of his importance and the value he brings to the draft process, but my criticism of his first-round picks still stand.

However, I'm encouraged with the latest reports of the Dodgers possibly "swinging for the fences" as it were along with signs that Gasparino and I do seem to align on certain prospects. I suspect that Stan Kasten has had a positive influence on Gasparino in regards to draft strategy, but I read Dustin Nosler mention that the team was hoping to draft Blake Rutherford as he was falling down the draft board last year. If I recall correctly, you and I (Quake Griffin) along with Neddy were hoping he'd fall to us as our other identified targets were being swiped by other teams, so it's encouraging to hear that Gasparino had the same intentions, if true, which is a safe assumption since it'd be yet another example of him taking someone falling down the draft board with respect to his national rankings.

Another thing to note is that after slow starts, both Lux and Funkhouser are showing significant improvements in their respective developments in the minors. I've mention before that I liked Lux just not as a first-round pick and, with our developmental expertise as an organization, an argument can certainly be made for drafting Funkhouser to fix his mechanics and approach along with developing his raw talent but he was certainly not worth a first-round selection given his progress and performance at the time regardless of the national rankings.

In any case, I've glossed over why I don't give full kudos to Gasparino for the Buehler pick specifically other than the fact that he selected him given the circumstances. I've cited all of the above to paint a picture of why he doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt in my opinion, but like I said, I'm optimistically hopeful that he'll improve in that regard.

[Ranma]

At least when Logan White made picks I've hated like Chris Reed in the first round in 2011, I could rationalize it was because of Frank McCourt's cheapness because it was out of the norm for him based on this drafting philosophy and stated profiles of ideal prospects. Gasparino has stuck to his habits. If you want to give him credit, his selection of Trea Turner would be one I would use to sing his praises since luck was involved with Buehler. However, White's draft philosophy and record has Ned Colletti riding his coattails and garnered us Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager, and Cody Bellinger among others, but it also includes the selections of unsigned talent such as David Price, Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Melancon, and Kevin Gausman. It's little wonder that I prefer White's approach to Gasparino's.

David Schoenfield, ESPN.com (5/31/17)

Yes, the money helps. The Los Angeles Dodgers have spent a lot of money on free agents and international players and re-signing their own stars.

On the other hand: They've drafted in the top 10 only once since 1993. They nailed that pick, selecting Clayton Kershaw with the seventh overall choice in 2006. The baseball draft, even when drafting high, is more unpredictable than the NBA and NFL drafts, and it becomes less predictable with each selection. Few players drafted outside the top 10 ever make a significant impact in the majors. Still, the Dodgers continue to churn out young talent courtesy of the organization's player development system ... and a key former executive.

Logan White ran the Dodgers' drafts from 2002 until his departure in 2014, when he joined the San Diego Padres after the hiring of Andrew Friedman to run baseball operations in Los Angeles. White was the guy who drafted Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger, so as you watch the young dynamic duo on ESPN's Wednesday Night Baseball against the Cardinals at 8 p.m. ET, give a tip of your cap to him.
...

"A lot of people think he has to go to third," White said at the time. "He has Cal Ripken size. I think it's a mistake to move him off shortstop right away. Let him play and swing the bat. He's definitely an offensive player. He has a very good swing with power, and he's a good makeup guy."
...

No matter the final numbers, this is how the rich get richer: find two studs in areas of the draft you usually don't find them. I'm sure Friedman has sent his thanks to White.

Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger Products of Dodgers' Draft Success

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Eric Longenhagen, ESPNinsider.com (6/10/17)

Strengths, Weaknesses of Every MLB Farm System

[Quake Griffin]

That's not really a weakness in our system, just a dig at whether certain moves worked or not.

I'm not super concerned about Alvarez at this point. I knew he we were getting eggs and not an omelette when we signed him.

I am concerned about whether Yusnial Diaz's bat will ever improve.

But I don't really have any problems with our system at this point. Questions over certain moves? Sure. The whole thing? No.


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[Ranma]

That's not really a weakness in our system, just a dig at whether certain moves worked or not.

I'm not super concerned about Alvarez at this point. I knew he we were getting eggs and not an omelette when we signed him.

I am concerned about whether Yusnial Diaz's bat will ever improve.

But I don't really have any problems with our system at this point. Questions over certain moves? Sure. The whole thing? No.

Yeah, when we have one of the best farm systems in baseball, he'd have to reach to come up with a weakness since,
to be fair, he had to do one for every team in the league.

[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

Dylan Hernandez, Los Angeles Times (6/9/17)

“Quite possibly the most talented minor-league team I’ve been associated with,” they were called by Friedman, the Dodgers president of baseball operations.

The Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, the organization’s affiliate in the High-A California League, are the crown jewel of a farm system that was revamped in the post-McCourt era. The team’s roster includes the most expensive group of international prospects in franchise history, as well as the first two draft classes of well-regarded scouting director Billy Gasparino.

The Quakes have a pitcher who effortlessly throws 100 mph and a first baseman who hit a ball harder than anyone at any level of the game has this season.

Opposing scouts aren’t allowed to speak publicly about players from other organizations, but one from an American League team said there could be five or six future major league players on the current Quakes roster, and that didn’t include Walker Buehler, a hard-throwing right-hander who was promoted last month to Double-A Tulsa.

“Hands down, the best team in the league,” another scout said.

The Future of the Dodgers is Bright — Just Take a Look at Their Local Minor League Team

[Quake Griffin]

What a beautiful thing to read about our organization.

Cannot wait til we start using the pipeline and dont need the Rich Hills and Scott Kazmirs ofvthe world.


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[Ranma]

J.J. Cooper, Baseball America (6/16/17)

Tatum (Clearwater, Fla): JJ- is Jose DeLeon more hype than substance, or he just having a string of bad luck with injuries?
J.J. Cooper: Are injuries bad luck? Pitchers’ ability is very much determined by how healthy they are. The De Leon we have seen this year has not had the velo or the control he’s had before, and he’s spent a lot of time on the DL. If De Leon gets back to what he was when he was fully healthy, there’s substance there, but there is no guarantee he’ll get back to that.
...

Jeff (CA): Who has the higher upside between Julio Urias and Walker Buehler?
J.J. Cooper: Yes? If Urias is healthy both have ceiling to be among the best pitchers in baseball. Picking which has a higher ceiling is getting pretty granular between these two guys, but I guess I’d take the lefty.

Prospect Hot Sheet Chat

[Quake Griffin]

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/6/16/15819756/dodgers-prospect-matt-beaty-hitting-his-way-into-conversation


^^^^
Loving this part of our organization. Finding talent in the later rounds. Developing it and bolstering our farm.

Who knows what the future holds for Beaty but it's positive news for us.
_________

And you know I love the Walker Buehler pick more and more by the day so you know I'm happy to read that.


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