Double Helix wrote:The Rondo Show wrote:Double Helix wrote:Will be interesting to see if you guys try and trade some of these assets for one of the superstars Fultz was compared to because then you get the rich man's Fultz in their prime to play with IT and Horford in their primes and didn't have to wait on Fultz to develop. It's not easy developing ball dominant lotto talent while you also have somebody like IT.
If you could move the Nets pick, Josh Jackson and the Kings pick in 2018 for a legit superstar then even if Fultz did become Harden-lite you guys won't care because you'll have a new superstar playing alongside IT and Horford.
It just feels like there's another shoe to drop here somewhere.
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We'd care, because that's 2 Nets picks for the price of 1 by just drafting Fultz. So if Fultz does become a Harden, this trade is awful. I just think that's a pretty nutty/unrealistic goal for Fultz. He can't even drive and create contact against NCAA caliber athletes at the level Harden is able to against NBA athletes. Harden's driving game is at a level that Fultz is unlikely to ever come to close reaching, if you ask me. Harden is like 20+ pounds heavier and probably even still quicker too. Some have argued they are concerned about his shot due to his low FT%, but it's fact that he wasn't just destroying NCAA defenders off the dribble that concerned me. Guys like Kris Dunn laughably get compared to John Wall based on facing weaker NCAA athletes and then can't drive anywhere near the same once they move up to next level. Marcus Smart another guy who was an elite driver in college but can't do it in pros. Now the difference there is that i do believe Fultz can/will be a high level shooter so I'd be real surprised if he were ever an offensive bust like those guys are currently, but I also can't see the James Harden comparisons for a guy who doesn't get to the rim at will against even NCAA caliber athletes. Not to mention his FT rate is far worse because he favors acrobatic finishes that shy away from contact (think Kyrie, D-Rose) rather than Harden's full speed/try and go through the defender and create contact approach. That's just a less efficient style because FT's are the most efficient shot in basketball.
Now hey, crazy development can happen for any prospect so never say never. Who thought Curry and Kawhi would be this level of players? But I don't see much reasonable evidence suggesting that Fultz ever becomes a Harden like talent. It'd take an outlier developmental curve to reach that kind of level.
I think this is logical. The only counter would be that Harden, Curry, Dunn, Lillard weren't as good as Fultz at age 19. All of those guys had to go back to school at least one more year to reach the next level of development that made them clear cut high lotto picks. Fultz entered college as a very high recruit and performed even better than expected, besting another teen who just so happens to be 6'6 and often compared to Jason Kidd. So, it's probably less about looking at how Fultz compared to those guys when they were drafted or rookies and more about how they looked at age 18/19 as well.
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The problem is being better earlier doesn't neccessarily mean being better long-term. The concerns about Fultz for me come athletically, which is much, much more difficult to improve than your skills are. Fultz is extremely advanced, but that doesn't neccessarily mean theres a superstar ceiling there. I mean D'Angelo Russell and Jamal Murray were absurdly productive for freshmen (not that I think he's quite as unathletic as either of those 2), but the lack of top end athleticism was a concern there too. I think that gets exposed somewhat at the NBA level against significantly better athletes and that his chances of being an elite driver in the NBA like Harden is are very limited. I think he'll still be an all-star caliber player because I expect him to keep developing his shot and I'm not a believer that his FT% is a sign he won't be a real high caliber shooter like some of the advanced stats suggest. He's good enough on good volume of 3's and shot incredibly well from mid-range, plus every scout you hear from believes he can shoot that it makes me believe the FT% is the fluke, not the rest of his shooting. So I expect him to be really good, I just don't expect him to combine real good shooting with an elite NBA driving game and FT rate like Harden has which would turn him from an all-star to a superstar. If you can't get by NCAA athletes at will, it's going to be very hard for you to do it in the NBA when the athleticism level goes up massively. 18, 19 or whatever age...that's a concern.
That's why I added the caveat at the end though. Reality is none of us know how these guys are going to develop and Curry/Kawhi are a great example. So if he has an outlier development curve like them, then sure, can't rule out superstardom. But can't you say the same thing about a guy like Josh Jackson having an outlier developmental curve as a shooter the way Kawhi did? Either could happen, but I don't think it's something we should count on at all. Those guys are far more the exception than the rule.
