What's Your Big Board Look Like?

[RickB-Orlando]

In the true sense of a big board rather than predicted draft spots:

1) Fultz
2) Jackson
3) Ball
4) Tatum
5) Isaac
6) Fox
7) Smith
8) Monk
9) Giles
10) Lauri


I'm going to throw Giles in there as a wild card. Word is he has been putting on a #1 overall worthy show in private workouts. His stock has already moved from late 1st round back to just outside the lottery. If his medical reports come back strong I wouldn't be surprised if he jumped further on draft night. It only takes one team...

Ohhhh, good call on Giles. There's most certainly a few players from outside the lottery who will jump positions. I'll have to factor that into my next big board.

You may recall we discussed Giles a while ago. I'm high on the guy, but would have to see very convincing evidence of his health to move him up into the top ten. I believe his skills and game are worthy of top five consideration, but his history of being literally unable to complete even a college season without significant injury makes him a risk to me.

Having said that, I would package our late first with a couple of seconds to move up into the mid-to-late teens to take a chance on him. He's all upside at that point.

[dsg2021]

There is way too many "sheep" following the "consensus big board" here. I think Ben is one of the few that realizes you have to think boldly and confidently. If you saw at least a couple of games on a prospect, love what you saw and love what you read, then don't be afraid to put him Top 5.

Take a look at these past four drafts. I will put them in the best big board order I can (with like 5 minutes of thinking on it, and retrospectively, ofc), along with their actual draft # in (parenthesis).

Spoiler:

2016
1. Ben Simmons (1)
2. Jaylen Brown (3)
3. Buddy Hield (6)
4. Thon Maker (10)
5. Brandon Ingram (2)
6. Malcom Brogdon (36)
7. Jamal Murray (7)
8. Skal Labissiere (28)
9. Marquese Chriss (8)
10. Patrick McCaw (38)
11. Jakob Poeltl (9)
12+. *Irrelevant So Far

Magic Results:
Drafted & Traded (11) Domantas Sabonis to OKC for well-intentioned, but ill-fated, Serge Ibaka deal.
Drafted (41) Stephen Zimmerman.
My Analysis: Bad draft so far. Don't even blame old FO for Serge Ibaka deal, even in retrospect.

2015
1. Karl-Anthony Towns (1)
2. Kristaps Porzingis (4)
3. Devin Booker (13)
4. Myles Turner (11)
5. Justise Winslow (10)
6. Norman Powell (46)
7. Jahlil Okafor (3)
8. D'Angelo Russell (2)
9. Josh Richardson (40)
10. Willie Caulie-Stein (6)
11. Montrezl Harrell (32)
12+. *Irrelevant/Low-Impact So Far

Magic Results:
Drafted (5) Mario Hezonja. Does not place on any retrospect big board.
Drafted (51) Tyler Harvey.
My Analysis: Forget how badly the old FO bungled the draft. They even had a hard on for KP for 2 straight years and yet they don't sell the farm to get him? KP has had a #1 pick level impact. In the past few drafts, there is definitely some really late-blooming draft hits to keep a mind open with, but Mario doesn't look like one.

2014
1. Joel Embiid (3)
2. Nikola Jokic (41)
3. Andrew Wiggins (1)
4. Jabari Parker (2)
5. Aaron Gordon (4)
6. Zach LaVine (13)
7. Dario Saric (12)
8. Clint Capela (25)
9. Gary Harris (19)
10. Jordan Clarkson (41)
11. Rodney Hood (23)
12. Elfrid Payton (10)
13+. Irrelevant/Low-Impact So Far

Magic Results:
Drafted (4) Aaron Gordon. #5 on Retro Big Board.
Drafted (10) Elfrid Payton. # 12 on Retro Big Board.
My Analysis: Proof the old FO weren't bad drafters in a vacuum, compared to the average drafting team. EP has a tragic flaw in shooting, but love AG no matter what # player he is in the rotation.

2013
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (15)
2. Rudy Gobert (27)
3. C.J. McCollum (10)
4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (8)
5. Otto Porter (3)
6. Dennis Schroeder (17)
7. Nerlens Noel (6)
8. Steven Adams (12)
9. Gorgui Dieng (21)
10. Victor Oladipo (2)
11. Cody Zeller (4)
12. Mason Plumlee (22)
13. Ben McLemore (8)
14. Allen Crabbe (31)
15+. Irrelevant/Low-Impact So Far

Magic Results:
Drafted (2) Victor Oladipo. #10 on Retro Big Board.
Drafted (51) Romero Osby.
My Analysis: The old FO played it too safe. And if they wanted to go safe, they really missed out on Otto, who I remember reading they secretly really, really liked too. At least Otto brought better NBA length and NBA shooting. And he's about to get paid big this summer.
This is the one draft I really looked at, watching at least 10 full game tapes on a few of the prospects. Yes, I liked Ben McLemore the most, but I never wrote up that he would start out as a high impact player with good handles. He needed to be game-fed like J.J. to build up his confidence and game. And I liked Ben and Otto more before the stupid summer where Oladipo jumped ahead for me just because of the workouts and the summer's heavy opinions. Never understood how draft opinions can be radically changed a couple months AFTER all the prospects finished playing. SMH

Conclusion: Except for the #1 pick on the "consensus big board", the "consensus big board" is.. (trying to avoid curse words here).. very bad..

[Bensational]

In the true sense of a big board rather than predicted draft spots:

1) Fultz
2) Jackson
3) Ball
4) Tatum
5) Isaac
6) Fox
7) Smith
8) Monk
9) Giles
10) Lauri


I'm going to throw Giles in there as a wild card. Word is he has been putting on a #1 overall worthy show in private workouts. His stock has already moved from late 1st round back to just outside the lottery. If his medical reports come back strong I wouldn't be surprised if he jumped further on draft night. It only takes one team...

Ohhhh, good call on Giles. There's most certainly a few players from outside the lottery who will jump positions. I'll have to factor that into my next big board.

You may recall we discussed Giles a while ago. I'm high on the guy, but would have to see very convincing evidence of his health to move him up into the top ten. I believe his skills and game are worthy of top five consideration, but his history of being literally unable to complete even a college season without significant injury makes him a risk to me.

Having said that, I would package our late first with a couple of seconds to move up into the mid-to-late teens to take a chance on him. He's all upside at that point.

I guess that's the point of a big board - trying to line up where you project the talent to fall in the end. If you consider Giles a Top 5 talent if healthy, then maybe put him in your top 5 with an * as a disclaimer, but assume he will be healthy.

I mean, Embiid had one of those and went #3, but if there were a redraft on that year now I think he'd go first no question.

That's not to say a team should take a flier on Giles with a top 5 pick, just that he has that potential.

[Bensational]

There is way too many "sheep" following the "consensus big board" here. I think Ben is one of the few that realizes you have to think boldly and confidently. If you saw at least a couple of games on a prospect, love what you saw and love what you read, then don't be afraid to put him Top 5.

Take a look at these past four drafts. I will put them in the best big board order I can (with like 5 minutes of thinking on it, and retrospectively, ofc), along with their actual draft # in (parenthesis).

Spoiler:

2016
1. Ben Simmons (1)
2. Jaylen Brown (3)
3. Buddy Hield (6)
4. Thon Maker (10)
5. Brandon Ingram (2)
6. Malcom Brogdon (36)
7. Jamal Murray (7)
8. Skal Labissiere (28)
9. Marquese Chriss (8)
10. Patrick McCaw (38)
11. Jakob Poeltl (9)
12+. *Irrelevant So Far

Magic Results:
Drafted & Traded (11) Domantas Sabonis to OKC for well-intentioned, but ill-fated, Serge Ibaka deal.
Drafted (41) Stephen Zimmerman.

2015
1. Karl-Anthony Towns (1)
2. Kristaps Porzingis (4)
3. Devin Booker (13)
4. Myles Turner (11)
5. Justise Winslow (10)
6. Norman Powell (46)
7. Jahlil Okafor (3)
8. D'Angelo Russell (2)
9. Josh Richardson (40)
10. Willie Caulie-Stein (6)
11. Montrezl Harrell (32)
12+. *Irrelevant/Low-Impact So Far

Magic Results:
Drafted (5) Mario Hezonja. Does not place on any retrospect big board.
Drafted (51) Tyler Harvey.

2014
1. Joel Embiid (3)
2. Nikola Jokic (41)
3. Andrew Wiggins (1)
4. Jabari Parker (2)
5. Aaron Gordon (4)
6. Zach LaVine (13)
7. Dario Saric (12)
8. Clint Capela (25)
9. Gary Harris (19)
10. Jordan Clarkson (41)
11. Rodney Hood (23)
12. Elfrid Payton (10)
13+. Irrelevant/Low-Impact So Far

Magic Results:
Drafted (4) Aaron Gordon. #5 on Retro Big Board.
Drafted (10) Elfrid Payton. # 12 on Retro Big Board.

2013
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (15)
2. Rudy Gobert (27)
3. C.J. McCollum (10)
4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (8)
5. Otto Porter (3)
6. Dennis Schroeder (17)
7. Nerlens Noel (6)
8. Steven Adams (12)
9. Gorgui Dieng (21)
10. Victor Oladipo (2)
11. Cody Zeller (4)
12. Mason Plumlee (22)
13. Allen Crabbe (31)
14+. Irrelevant/Low-Impact So Far

Magic Results:
Drafted (2) Victor Oladipo. #10 on Retro Big Board.
Drafted (51) Romero Osby.

Conclusion: Except for the #1 pick on the "consensus big board", the "consensus big board" is.. (trying to avoid curse words here).. very bad..

Nice write up. People will most likely argue about the orders you've gone with, but your point is the most important.

I was quite lazy in just keeping my big board to the top 10, because I don't know all the prospects as well from 10-50+. But on my next one I'll be trying to pull out some of the names that could really surprise from later in the draft. It's all just guess work though.

[dsg2021]

There is way too many "sheep" following the "consensus big board" here. I think Ben is one of the few that realizes you have to think boldly and confidently. If you saw at least a couple of games on a prospect, love what you saw and love what you read, then don't be afraid to put him Top 5.

Take a look at these past four drafts. I will put them in the best big board order I can (with like 5 minutes of thinking on it, and retrospectively, ofc), along with their actual draft # in (parenthesis).

Spoiler:

2016
1. Ben Simmons (1)
2. Jaylen Brown (3)
3. Buddy Hield (6)
4. Thon Maker (10)
5. Brandon Ingram (2)
6. Malcom Brogdon (36)
7. Jamal Murray (7)
8. Skal Labissiere (28)
9. Marquese Chriss (8)
10. Patrick McCaw (38)
11. Jakob Poeltl (9)
12+. *Irrelevant So Far

Magic Results:
Drafted & Traded (11) Domantas Sabonis to OKC for well-intentioned, but ill-fated, Serge Ibaka deal.
Drafted (41) Stephen Zimmerman.

2015
1. Karl-Anthony Towns (1)
2. Kristaps Porzingis (4)
3. Devin Booker (13)
4. Myles Turner (11)
5. Justise Winslow (10)
6. Norman Powell (46)
7. Jahlil Okafor (3)
8. D'Angelo Russell (2)
9. Josh Richardson (40)
10. Willie Caulie-Stein (6)
11. Montrezl Harrell (32)
12+. *Irrelevant/Low-Impact So Far

Magic Results:
Drafted (5) Mario Hezonja. Does not place on any retrospect big board.
Drafted (51) Tyler Harvey.

2014
1. Joel Embiid (3)
2. Nikola Jokic (41)
3. Andrew Wiggins (1)
4. Jabari Parker (2)
5. Aaron Gordon (4)
6. Zach LaVine (13)
7. Dario Saric (12)
8. Clint Capela (25)
9. Gary Harris (19)
10. Jordan Clarkson (41)
11. Rodney Hood (23)
12. Elfrid Payton (10)
13+. Irrelevant/Low-Impact So Far

Magic Results:
Drafted (4) Aaron Gordon. #5 on Retro Big Board.
Drafted (10) Elfrid Payton. # 12 on Retro Big Board.

2013
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (15)
2. Rudy Gobert (27)
3. C.J. McCollum (10)
4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (8)
5. Otto Porter (3)
6. Dennis Schroeder (17)
7. Nerlens Noel (6)
8. Steven Adams (12)
9. Gorgui Dieng (21)
10. Victor Oladipo (2)
11. Cody Zeller (4)
12. Mason Plumlee (22)
13. Allen Crabbe (31)
14+. Irrelevant/Low-Impact So Far

Magic Results:
Drafted (2) Victor Oladipo. #10 on Retro Big Board.
Drafted (51) Romero Osby.

Conclusion: Except for the #1 pick on the "consensus big board", the "consensus big board" is.. (trying to avoid curse words here).. very bad..

Nice write up. People will most likely argue about the orders you've gone with, but your point is the most important.

I was quite lazy in just keeping my big board to the top 10, because I don't know all the prospects as well from 10-50+. But on my next one I'll be trying to pull out some of the names that could really surprise from later in the draft. It's all just guess work though.

It's scary that the real life NBA scouts often say it is guess work too lol

[KillMonger]

1)Fultz
2)Jackson
3)Ball
4)Tatum
5)DSJ
6)Ntilikina
7)Fox
8)Monk
9)Issac
10)Markkanen

[T-Rob]

1. Fultz
2. Jackson
3. Fox
4. Isaac
5. Tatum
6. Ball
7. Monk
8. Dsj
9. Mitchell
10. Markkanen

[Bensational]

Just to clarify for people, a big board is a talent ranking board, not a draft order prediction.

Alright, so my first update, as of June 12th, my big board now looks like (with comps):

1 - Fultz (Harden)
2 - Ball (Kidd-lite)
3 - Markkanen (Dirk-lite)
4 - Donovan Mitchell (Wade with 3pt range)
5 - Tatum (Parker/Tobias mix)
6 - Ntilikina (Kawhi/Batum mix, in a SG body)
7 - Giles (Bosh-lite, injury concern)
8 - Juwan Evans (Ish Smith/Isaiah Thomas mix)
9 - Jackson (Butler/Turner mix)
10 - Bell (Faried)
11 - Lydon (Ryan Anderson)

I don't think all the guys listed will be stars, but they could have more impact than just role players. The comps should help justify why I rank some people in certain places.

I think Isaac, DSJr, Monk and Fox could be serviceable role players and starters, but not stars. Again, it's pretty much guesswork, so these 4 could be superstars.

[Darth Magic]

BIG BOARD

1) Fultz
2) DSJ
3) Jackson
4) Ball
5) Tatum
6) Issac
7) Fox
8) Monk
9) Ntilikina
10) Collins

[Airgordon00]

1. Fultz
2. Dsj
3. Jackson
4. Fox
5. Nitlikina
6. Isaac
7. Tatum
8. Monk
9. Markkanen
10. Giles

[shadrock]

Alright, so as of June 10th, mine would look like:

1 - Fultz
2 - Ball
3 - Jackson
4 - Markkanen
5 - Ntilikina
6 - Isaac
7 - DSJr
8 - Tatum
9 - Monk
10 - Fox

Keep in mind, this is how I think the talent might shake out in a few seasons. Might not show straight away.

My thoughts on Markkanen jumping so high are just that I anticipate him becoming a top scorer in the NBA.

Ntilikina is an absolute wildcard, but I see him as a SG version of Giannis, with less height, but that rangy, athletic combo - except he can hit 3's. I think he eventually puts all those together to transcend guys like Monk and DSJr who are currently more developed than him.

Markkanen at 4.

Mother of god.

I'm not saying he'll be drafted 4th, I'm saying I think he could end up the 4th best talent in the draft. He could end up higher. But I'm sure people were skeptical of the potential of Dirk being the best talent in his draft, so it's understandable here.

In a scale of Vesely - McDermott - Mirotic - Porzingis - Jokic - Dirk then I think he sits closer to the Porzingis/Jokic/Dirk end with his scoring abilities and physical profile. Other 7fters will struggle to defend him on the perimeter.

I respect your viewpoint, but to me, bigmen who cant defend have a very limited role in todays NBA. Dirk is part of the older generation and back then you could get away without having defense, because you would play someone like Tyson Chandler besides him who would cover up the mistakes. But in the modern NBA, most teams really only play one big most of the time, and the question therefore is, can you really justify having a turnstile on defense as your only big on the floor? To me, this factor alone limits his potential to being a bench big in the ilk of Channing Frye. The only other alternative is you run a defensive power forward beside him, which to me is something we know doesnt work given the Vuc/Serge experiment last year.

I just dont like taking players that create huge holes that need to be covered up.

Genuine question: Does he have ANY potential to play a position other than center?

[Bensational]

Markkanen at 4.

Mother of god.

I'm not saying he'll be drafted 4th, I'm saying I think he could end up the 4th best talent in the draft. He could end up higher. But I'm sure people were skeptical of the potential of Dirk being the best talent in his draft, so it's understandable here.

In a scale of Vesely - McDermott - Mirotic - Porzingis - Jokic - Dirk then I think he sits closer to the Porzingis/Jokic/Dirk end with his scoring abilities and physical profile. Other 7fters will struggle to defend him on the perimeter.

I respect your viewpoint, but to me, bigmen who cant defend have a very limited role in todays NBA. Dirk is part of the older generation and back then you could get away without having defense, because you would play someone like Tyson Chandler besides him who would cover up the mistakes. But in the modern NBA, most teams really only play one big most of the time, and the question therefore is, can you really justify having a turnstile on defense as your only big on the floor? To me, this factor alone limits his potential to being a bench big in the ilk of Channing Frye. The only other alternative is you run a defensive power forward beside him, which to me is something we know doesnt work given the Vuc/Serge experiment last year.

I just dont like taking players that create huge holes that need to be covered up.

Genuine question: Does he have ANY potential to play a position other than center?

He needs a coach to correct his body and stance for defense, and I think once that's done he should have enough lateral quickness to defend some 3's, most 4's and the 5's who don't bang. He won't be an elite defender, but I do think he can be brought up to a high enough standard that he won't hurt you, and he'll hold his own. So depending on your lineup, he could spend most of his time at 4 and 5, and some small stints at 3.

But he's the sort of guy that's gonna need to be used heavily within the offense to really get the most out of him. If you stick him out there as a decoy and for the occasional 3pt shot, then he won't be worth the net return. But if you give him a large chunk of your offense, his presence will disrupt the defense more and start to create shots for other players.

[Patrick1978]

I'm not saying he'll be drafted 4th, I'm saying I think he could end up the 4th best talent in the draft. He could end up higher. But I'm sure people were skeptical of the potential of Dirk being the best talent in his draft, so it's understandable here.

In a scale of Vesely - McDermott - Mirotic - Porzingis - Jokic - Dirk then I think he sits closer to the Porzingis/Jokic/Dirk end with his scoring abilities and physical profile. Other 7fters will struggle to defend him on the perimeter.

I respect your viewpoint, but to me, bigmen who cant defend have a very limited role in todays NBA. Dirk is part of the older generation and back then you could get away without having defense, because you would play someone like Tyson Chandler besides him who would cover up the mistakes. But in the modern NBA, most teams really only play one big most of the time, and the question therefore is, can you really justify having a turnstile on defense as your only big on the floor? To me, this factor alone limits his potential to being a bench big in the ilk of Channing Frye. The only other alternative is you run a defensive power forward beside him, which to me is something we know doesnt work given the Vuc/Serge experiment last year.

I just dont like taking players that create huge holes that need to be covered up.

Genuine question: Does he have ANY potential to play a position other than center?

He needs a coach to correct his body and stance for defense, and I think once that's done he should have enough lateral quickness to defend some 3's, most 4's and the 5's who don't bang. He won't be an elite defender, but I do think he can be brought up to a high enough standard that he won't hurt you, and he'll hold his own. So depending on your lineup, he could spend most of his time at 4 and 5, and some small stints at 3.

But he's the sort of guy that's gonna need to be used heavily within the offense to really get the most out of him. If you stick him out there as a decoy and for the occasional 3pt shot, then he won't be worth the net return. But if you give him a large chunk of your offense, his presence will disrupt the defense more and start to create shots for other players.

Agreed
I think he will surprise a lot of people with his versatility

[Skin]

Posted this in another thread back in May. Same feelings.

Draft Board for #5
1. Josh Jackson
2. Jonathan Isaac
3. Markelle Fultz
4. Dennis Smith Jr
5. Jayson Tatum

Draft Board for #25
1. Jawun Evans
2. Jawun Evans
3. Jawun Evans
4. You know where I'm going with this...

Draft Board for #33
1. Jordan Bell

Draft Board for #35
1. Semi Ojeleye

Roster Change
Move T-Ross to SG
Move Biyombo to starting C

Find out trade value for
Nikola Vucevic
Evan Fournier
Mario Hezonja

FA
Resign Jodie Meeks for dirt cheap

Roster
PG Elfrid Payton / Jawun Evans / DJ Augustin
SG Terrence Ross / Evan Fournier / Jodie Meeks
SF Josh Jackson / Mario Hezonja / Semi Ojeleye
PF Aaron Gordon / Jordan Bell / Semi Ojeleye
C Bismack Biyombo / Nikola Vucevic / Stephen Zimmerman

[Xatticus]

I'm not saying he'll be drafted 4th, I'm saying I think he could end up the 4th best talent in the draft. He could end up higher. But I'm sure people were skeptical of the potential of Dirk being the best talent in his draft, so it's understandable here.

In a scale of Vesely - McDermott - Mirotic - Porzingis - Jokic - Dirk then I think he sits closer to the Porzingis/Jokic/Dirk end with his scoring abilities and physical profile. Other 7fters will struggle to defend him on the perimeter.

I respect your viewpoint, but to me, bigmen who cant defend have a very limited role in todays NBA. Dirk is part of the older generation and back then you could get away without having defense, because you would play someone like Tyson Chandler besides him who would cover up the mistakes. But in the modern NBA, most teams really only play one big most of the time, and the question therefore is, can you really justify having a turnstile on defense as your only big on the floor? To me, this factor alone limits his potential to being a bench big in the ilk of Channing Frye. The only other alternative is you run a defensive power forward beside him, which to me is something we know doesnt work given the Vuc/Serge experiment last year.

I just dont like taking players that create huge holes that need to be covered up.

Genuine question: Does he have ANY potential to play a position other than center?

He needs a coach to correct his body and stance for defense, and I think once that's done he should have enough lateral quickness to defend some 3's, most 4's and the 5's who don't bang. He won't be an elite defender, but I do think he can be brought up to a high enough standard that he won't hurt you, and he'll hold his own. So depending on your lineup, he could spend most of his time at 4 and 5, and some small stints at 3.

But he's the sort of guy that's gonna need to be used heavily within the offense to really get the most out of him. If you stick him out there as a decoy and for the occasional 3pt shot, then he won't be worth the net return. But if you give him a large chunk of your offense, his presence will disrupt the defense more and start to create shots for other players.

I think he has Rashard Lewis upside. He isn't a stiff, but he certainly doesn't have the agility to chase wings either. You can hide a weak defender at the four to some extent, but they can still get exposed by switches. He has enough value offensively to be a plus player, but you still want to mitigate the damage of his defensive shortcomings. He isn't a five. You can call him one, but you'll have to put a complementary piece on the floor to give you the skill set of a legitimate five.

[rcklsscognition]

1)Fultz
2)DSJ
3)Jackson
4)Ball
5)Markkanen
6)Ntilikina
7)Fox
8)Tatum
9)Isaac
10)Monk

[fbeye343]

Bucking the trend here

1. Fultz
2. Ball
3. Monk
4. Smith
5. Tatum
6. Jackson
7. Markannen
8. Isaac
9. Fox
10. Ntilkinia