Eaves: C's felt Fultz was NOT the best prospect

[Gant]

Heres the thing. There isn't a significant drop off from Fultz. Depending what you already have on your roster. The problem is Jackson is a clone of Brown, slightly better but same type of player. Crowder is the same type of player as both of them. So is Smart. Right now 4 of your players under contract or going to be drafted are in a sense the same damn player. One might be more explosive than the other but same player. Where does the scoring and rebounding come from if the team fails to get Hayward/Griffin? At some point one of these uber defenders that struggle to shoot need to develop a jump shot.

Jackson is a lot better than Brown as a prospect. Based on Chad Ford's survey of NBA GM tier list that gets published every year, Brown will be drafted as a 12-14 pick if both years were combined.

But I do agree that the drop off from Fultz is not that large. Fultz, Ball, Tatum, Jackson are my top 4 in that order, which seems to be the top 4 according to most NBA front offices based on Twitter rumors.

That was Brown as a prospect out of college, not Brown now.

[Brett43]

Celtics draft evaluation sucks.

Only better drafters over Ainge's regime have been the Spurs. You freak out at any sort of decision time(draft, FA, trade deadline) without a ton of actual points to back it up while the team continues to ramp up to a top 4 team that keeps its assets so it's tough to take your opinions seriously.

The Warriors have done pretty well through the draft.

[Slartibartfast]

Rudy gay, at best....at best and thats still saying alot

Wouldn't his college tape be more important?

the college tape isnt super useful, the best tape to watch is the USA basketball tape. thats a more accurate representation of the player. good in leakouts, better at steals than advertised, not as good in the other advertised aspects.

He was the best player on that team. And I think the competition was significantly poorer and the game even more different stylistically than the NBA.

We were all drooling over this kid a week ago and now he's Rudy Gay at best? Nah.

He's a stud PNR player with great mechanics on his J, great size, legitimate passing ability and good defensive tools.

Tatum is the guy that compares more closely to Rudy Gay - scoring combo forward with questionable non-scoring game and an over-reliance on mid-range isoing (a style that has definitely fallen out of vogue in the NBA with the rule changes).

[LarryBirdsFingr]

Wouldn't his college tape be more important?

the college tape isnt super useful, the best tape to watch is the USA basketball tape. thats a more accurate representation of the player. good in leakouts, better at steals than advertised, not as good in the other advertised aspects.

He was the best player on that team. And I think the competition was significantly poorer and the game even more different stylistically than the NBA.

We were all drooling over this kid a week ago and now he's Rudy Gay at best? Nah.

He's a stud PNR player with great mechanics on his J, great size, legitimate passing ability and good defensive tools.

Tatum is the guy that compares more closely to Rudy Gay - scoring combo forward with questionable non-scoring game and an over-reliance on mid-range isoing (a style that has definitely fallen out of vogue in the NBA with the rule changes).

go back and watch some rudy gay film from college, they are surprisingly similar, I didnt even really notice it myself until i was shown the film side by side

[BakersDozen]

Have we heard ANYTHING about Tatums workout?


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[Scoonie]

Has Tatum even worked out for the Celtics?

[Fencer reregistered]

Celtics draft evaluation sucks.

Only better drafters over Ainge's regime have been the Spurs. You freak out at any sort of decision time(draft, FA, trade deadline) without a ton of actual points to back it up while the team continues to ramp up to a top 4 team that keeps its assets so it's tough to take your opinions seriously.

The Warriors have done pretty well through the draft.

Also the Thunder and perhaps the Bulls. (Rose, Butler, Noah and to some extent Deng were all good picks for their draft slots. On the other hand, the Bulls also made some horrific draft moves, like the trade down from Aldridge to Thomas.)

[illmatic24]

Kind of odd if they thought he was #1 and then changed their mind after one workout. Either they were already iffy on him to begin with before the workout or that workout was far worse than they expected from him.

[Ben-N1ce]

So they don't want a guy because of a workout but might draft players they might not even workout?

[2Mas]

Gut tells me I don't like the trade too much. Both picks woulda be awesome. 1 i'm a little iffy on. But i'm optimistic.

Obviously the C's FO isn't completely sold on Fultz.

That being said -- how the hell can any you human beings sit here & talk about winning & loosing this trade when we might not even get the pick to 2019? & Then we need at least 2 years to see how they all pan out.

You guys sitting here bugging over some **** that won't even come to fruition probably until 2021 lol. Grow up.

[Gant]

One thing about good drafting: A lot of times teams get credit for being great drafters when they were in part lucky. I mean they should get credit but with some thought.

For example, every team in the league including the ones that drafted them were wrong on Giannis, Gobert, Butler, Jokic, and many other late drafted stars. If their teams had known they'd be this good they would have traded up for them and not risked someone else snatching them first.

[Slartibartfast]

the college tape isnt super useful, the best tape to watch is the USA basketball tape. thats a more accurate representation of the player. good in leakouts, better at steals than advertised, not as good in the other advertised aspects.

He was the best player on that team. And I think the competition was significantly poorer and the game even more different stylistically than the NBA.

We were all drooling over this kid a week ago and now he's Rudy Gay at best? Nah.

He's a stud PNR player with great mechanics on his J, great size, legitimate passing ability and good defensive tools.

Tatum is the guy that compares more closely to Rudy Gay - scoring combo forward with questionable non-scoring game and an over-reliance on mid-range isoing (a style that has definitely fallen out of vogue in the NBA with the rule changes).

go back and watch some rudy gay film from college, they are surprisingly similar, I didnt even really notice it myself until i was shown the film side by side

Link it up. I didn't see Gay in college and the highlights are endless transition dunk reels.

I think whoever sold you on this comp is overselling to downplay the risk in this deal.

Statistically and watching the modern day Gay it makes no sense. Gay had an underwater A:TO. He played forward. He didn't carry a big scoring or playmaking burden. He never created well for others or efficiently for himself. He never got to the FT line, even playing off other big time playmakers as a rim attacking forward.

Modern-day Gay has decent but unexceptional handles and doesn't pass the ball or draw fouls much better than Jeff Green.'

It's just not a good comp.

[SLCceltic]

Ainge sucks drafting?

Why? Because he passed on Giannis? I reject this. He found Sullinger, Rondo, Jefferson after pick 15.

Ainge and the talent evaluators are fine.

Delonte, TAllen and Bbaby too..

[LarryBirdsFingr]

He was the best player on that team. And I think the competition was significantly poorer and the game even more different stylistically than the NBA.

We were all drooling over this kid a week ago and now he's Rudy Gay at best? Nah.

He's a stud PNR player with great mechanics on his J, great size, legitimate passing ability and good defensive tools.

Tatum is the guy that compares more closely to Rudy Gay - scoring combo forward with questionable non-scoring game and an over-reliance on mid-range isoing (a style that has definitely fallen out of vogue in the NBA with the rule changes).

go back and watch some rudy gay film from college, they are surprisingly similar, I didnt even really notice it myself until i was shown the film side by side

Link it up. I didn't see Gay in college and the highlights are endless transition dunk reels.

I think whoever sold you on this comp is overselling to downplay the risk in this deal.

Statistically and watching the modern day Gay it makes no sense. Gay had an underwater A:TO. He played forward. He didn't carry a big scoring or playmaking burden. He never created well for others or efficiently for himself. He never got to the FT line, even playing off other big time playmakers as a rim attacking forward.

Modern-day Gay has decent but unexceptional handles and doesn't pass the ball or draw fouls much better than Jeff Green.'

It's just not a good comp.

ill upload the video later or find you a good one thats already up

[Andrew McCeltic]

IIRC, Gay had a similar floaty, slashing game in college. He also got a huge contract for a reason. I'll post more on this later when I'm not on my phone.

[Andrew McCeltic]

I will say I was concerned all along about the hype for Fultz, because the arguments for him weren't robust, and it was taken for granted he was a "stud." Now I'm concerned the arguments against him aren't robust.

I think a compelling argument could be that his point guard play is significantly overrated, that he's a tunnel vision scorer who knows how to pass out of the defense to an open man at the last minute. That's how Stephon Marbury got a lot of his assists, for example.

[ryaningf]

Wouldn't his college tape be more important?

the college tape isnt super useful, the best tape to watch is the USA basketball tape. thats a more accurate representation of the player. good in leakouts, better at steals than advertised, not as good in the other advertised aspects.

He was the best player on that team. And I think the competition was significantly poorer and the game even more different stylistically than the NBA.

We were all drooling over this kid a week ago and now he's Rudy Gay at best? Nah.

He's a stud PNR player with great mechanics on his J, great size, legitimate passing ability and good defensive tools.

Tatum is the guy that compares more closely to Rudy Gay - scoring combo forward with questionable non-scoring game and an over-reliance on mid-range isoing (a style that has definitely fallen out of vogue in the NBA with the rule changes).

I appreciate the consistency, Slart, it shows you weren't just going along with the crowd.

***

I never bought the Fultz hype. It wasn't anything in the film, though, the film was good (except on defense). It was the demeanor, the losing, the casual way he went about things. He just seemed like he was playing, not playing to win. There are a lot of these kinds of guys around, people think talent is rare but talent isn't rare as much as it's rare when talent is applied in a winning manner. The best players are the ones who can identify the winning moment, and raise their game in that moment, whether it's getting a loose ball, an offensive rebound, or a step-back jumper. I saw that trait in Lonzo and Josh Jackson (and Tatum, though I'm less high on him), never saw it in Fultz.

Maybe Banks2Pierce can weigh in, but I suspect the Brain Doctor was heavily involved in this decision.

As for Fultz and Gay, they both over-rely on the mid-range and ooze talent but don't actually do the things that win games. One of the most surprising things about Rudy Gay is that he needed glasses for a long time but never got his eyes tested and so got drafted and paid on a 2nd contract and couldn't even see. That's how much talent the guy has...

As for the worth of a workout, who knows. I mean, I think the Cs are leaking a lot of stuff right now to justify what is a surprising decision, so I'm not too keen to take their word for it (though everything they've leaked is stuff I've said in the past based on his game tape). In Fultz's defense, some guys aren't practice players and can't really get going unless the lights are bright. Whatever the case, I don't think the workout was the deciding factor, it was likely that the Cs saw little separation between the top 4 guys, had a chance to add value and still get one of those guys and went for it. If the workout was a deciding factor, then I think it's because they saw something in person that you can't see on film and if that's the case again I'm thinking the Brain Doctor played a role there.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Ainge sucks drafting?

Why? Because he passed on Giannis? I reject this. He found Sullinger, Rondo, Jefferson after pick 15.

Ainge and the talent evaluators are fine.

Delonte, TAllen and Bbaby too..

Ainge ID'd and loved Giannis, he hesitated because it looked like he might be too permanently spindly for the NBA, and it wasn't clear he'd be a freak in Massachusetts like he was in Mykonos.

Olynyk was a safe bet, you knew he'd end up who he is now, with a slim chance at being even better. Suspect Danny thought KO was guaranteed to retain value as a trade chip if we needed him as one.

[Fidel Sarcasmo]

Rudy Gay was back when i used to be a college BB fan and definitely a UConn fan, His defense was always soft and I knew that would leak into his pro game. You can tell from a young age, and definitely by the time they hit College, if their D is crap. Rudy's D was crap in college and it's crap in the pros. But more to the point, Bad D sums up your competitive drive. The intensity has to be there and it isn't and it translates to the pro game. I know all about Rudy Gay. Pure Fools gold, with empty stats. He'll put up 20 a game and give it right back on D by himself, making it a zero sum game by way of his court time.

[Andrew McCeltic]

There is a definite visual similarity between Gay and Fultz, but I don't know what to make of it. Sort of, scoring a ton but staying out of the fray, aloof from the kind of plays that can impact a game.

Another Memphis Grizzly to think of as a caution for Fultz and Tatum is OJ Mayo, who was hugely hyped, has some legit star skills, but has weaknesses he never plugged - like a luxury yacht with a hole in it.