Sixers officially acquire #1 pick per Woj and Aldridge. Will get Fultz

[Chris76]

@Probballdraft:

Hearing if Cav-s Pacers talks go well 76ers could be included as a 3rd team & possible landing spot for Love if IND prefer picks & prospects

This is NOT something I can get behind

Honestly, why not? It's not like Love is old at 28. All anyone wanted to talk about last season was how a "real stretch 4" like Ilyasova changed how the team played, and Love is basically one of the best stretch 4s in the league, if not the best.

It's all about what the cost is. If "picks and prospects" means the OKC pick or a handful of 2nd rounders + Okafor and Justin Anderson are you really going to say that you wouldn't get behind it?

Love would be great vet, his shooting is elite. I think Saric can be a poor man's Kevin Love. Anyway, Isaac would be a great prospect to overpay to get. His rim protection and perimeter defense would fit great with our core. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Ainge takes Isaac at 3.

[TTP]

What are your thoughts on Fultz? Do you think he's worthy or the hype or overhyped? Do you see red flags?

I think he's the #1 over Ball, but not by a massive margin, but I think he's a significantly better fit for us than Ball is. If we didn't have Simmons, I think the decision would be a lot closer.

For sure there's red flags, but that goes for every prospect and he has far less than any prospect other than Ball. FT%, lack of defensive intensity, and how bad his college team was are the three biggest flags. He's incredibly young though and his defensive tools are excellent, so I've very optimistic about growth there. I also think we're the perfect environment for helping to ingrain a high defensive effort mindset into a player.

That's fair. Espn analytics team said Fultz has a 39% chance of becoming a bust. Don't you think that's scary for the alleged best prospect?

Link? I'd like to see what they rate all prospects' star and bust equity. I'm also curious what their definition of bust is. I'm guessing bust just means doesn't turn into a star?

I'd also be curious about the percentages they gave various prospects in previous years so that I can establish a baseline for what's scary and what isn't.

[ckchen]

This is NOT something I can get behind

Honestly, why not? It's not like Love is old at 28. All anyone wanted to talk about last season was how a "real stretch 4" like Ilyasova changed how the team played, and Love is basically one of the best stretch 4s in the league, if not the best.

It's all about what the cost is. If "picks and prospects" means the OKC pick or a handful of 2nd rounders + Okafor and Justin Anderson are you really going to say that you wouldn't get behind it?

His back injuries concern me but I also don't think that's going to be close to the price. Wouldn't we have to be giving up the lion share of the cost for George for this to work?

I dunno. Maybe. I guess it all depends on what kind of leverage anyone really has in this situation. The way it's phrased it just says "Philly could get involved as a landing spot for Love" doesn't give me any indication whatsoever. We have no idea what kind of offers are being talked about, just Indy's demands that they need 2 1st round picks and a starter. Who knows what that actually means, but if the only reason Philly is involved is because Indiana DOESN'T want Love and would prefer picks and prospects, then they can't expect all of the value to be coming from Philly because that would essentially be like Philly trading for PG himself.

[spikeslovechild]

This is NOT something I can get behind

Honestly, why not? It's not like Love is old at 28. All anyone wanted to talk about last season was how a "real stretch 4" like Ilyasova changed how the team played, and Love is basically one of the best stretch 4s in the league, if not the best.

It's all about what the cost is. If "picks and prospects" means the OKC pick or a handful of 2nd rounders + Okafor and Justin Anderson are you really going to say that you wouldn't get behind it?

Love would be great vet, his shooting is elite. I think Saric can be a poor man's Kevin Love. Anyway, Isaac would be a great prospect to overpay to get. His rim protection and perimeter defense would fit great with our core. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Ainge takes Isaac at 3.

Why would we trade for love? We don't need another big. Saric can do like 80% of what Love does at 10 percent the cost. Also ideally Simmons is our PF. We need to focus on improving ur guards.

[Unbreakable99]

I think he's the #1 over Ball, but not by a massive margin, but I think he's a significantly better fit for us than Ball is. If we didn't have Simmons, I think the decision would be a lot closer.

For sure there's red flags, but that goes for every prospect and he has far less than any prospect other than Ball. FT%, lack of defensive intensity, and how bad his college team was are the three biggest flags. He's incredibly young though and his defensive tools are excellent, so I've very optimistic about growth there. I also think we're the perfect environment for helping to ingrain a high defensive effort mindset into a player.

That's fair. Espn analytics team said Fultz has a 39% chance of becoming a bust. Don't you think that's scary for the alleged best prospect?

Link? I'd like to see what they rate all prospects' star and bust equity. I'm also curious what their definition of bust is. I'm guessing bust just means doesn't turn into a star?

I'd also be curious about the percentages they gave various prospects in previous years so that I can establish a baseline for what's scary and what isn't.

I don't have a link because it was on tv after they showed Fultz in an interview with Jay Williams. They said Fultz had 39% chance to be a bust. They said Ball was the best prospect. They said Fox had an 8% chance to be an all star.

[XtremeDunkz]

If that was really going to happen I would rather cut Cleveland out and take George and see if Embiid and company can convince him to stay,

[sixers78]

That love trade rumor is bogus. Has no legs. Apparently someone on twitter threw it out there and sports radio ran with it.

[TTP]

That's fair. Espn analytics team said Fultz has a 39% chance of becoming a bust. Don't you think that's scary for the alleged best prospect?

Link? I'd like to see what they rate all prospects' star and bust equity. I'm also curious what their definition of bust is. I'm guessing bust just means doesn't turn into a star?

I'd also be curious about the percentages they gave various prospects in previous years so that I can establish a baseline for what's scary and what isn't.

I don't have a link because it was on tv after they showed Fultz in an interview with Jay Williams. They said Fultz had 39% chance to be a bust. They said Ball was the best prospect. They said Fox had an 8% chance to be an all star.

Pelton is arguably ESPN's best analytics guy and has Fultz second to Ball in his stats projection over the first five years of their careers. He also believes those two are far better than everyone else (his projections particularly dislike Jackson, Fox, and Monk).

[CoreyGallagher]

"Almost immediately after being cut, Markelle had rededicated himself to on-court skills. At [Fultz's personal coach] Williams’s instruction, he took 700 shots per day, spent hours swimming or boxing, committed to improving his footwork and vision and stretching the limits of his body.

Williams discovered a player motivated not by scholarships or riches but by revenge. So he used that."

http://www.csnphilly.com/the700level/markelle-fultzs-high-school-coach-regrets-cutting-him-varsity-sophomore

Perhaps he can use our division rivals essentially trading him as motivation.

[76ciology]

"Almost immediately after being cut, Markelle had rededicated himself to on-court skills. At [Fultz's personal coach] Williams’s instruction, he took 700 shots per day, spent hours swimming or boxing, committed to improving his footwork and vision and stretching the limits of his body.

Williams discovered a player motivated not by scholarships or riches but by revenge. So he used that."

http://www.csnphilly.com/the700level/markelle-fultzs-high-school-coach-regrets-cutting-him-varsity-sophomore

Perhaps he can use our division rivals essentially trading him as motivation.

Hope his body is durable after all that

[76ciology]

Link? I'd like to see what they rate all prospects' star and bust equity. I'm also curious what their definition of bust is. I'm guessing bust just means doesn't turn into a star?

I'd also be curious about the percentages they gave various prospects in previous years so that I can establish a baseline for what's scary and what isn't.

I don't have a link because it was on tv after they showed Fultz in an interview with Jay Williams. They said Fultz had 39% chance to be a bust. They said Ball was the best prospect. They said Fox had an 8% chance to be an all star.

Pelton is arguably ESPN's best analytics guy and has Fultz second to Ball in his stats projection over the first five years of their careers. He also believes those two are far better than everyone else (his projections particularly dislike Jackson, Fox, and Monk).

Ball's on court impact is elite and analytics love that. It maybe because of his situation (system and teammates).

[Unbreakable99]

Link? I'd like to see what they rate all prospects' star and bust equity. I'm also curious what their definition of bust is. I'm guessing bust just means doesn't turn into a star?

I'd also be curious about the percentages they gave various prospects in previous years so that I can establish a baseline for what's scary and what isn't.

I don't have a link because it was on tv after they showed Fultz in an interview with Jay Williams. They said Fultz had 39% chance to be a bust. They said Ball was the best prospect. They said Fox had an 8% chance to be an all star.

Pelton is arguably ESPN's best analytics guy and has Fultz second to Ball in his stats projection over the first five years of their careers. He also believes those two are far better than everyone else (his projections particularly dislike Jackson, Fox, and Monk).

Do you have a link to his projections or can you pm me the info since I don't have insider? And do you know who Pelton had at the top last year between Simmons and Ingram?

[76ciology]

I don't have a link because it was on tv after they showed Fultz in an interview with Jay Williams. They said Fultz had 39% chance to be a bust. They said Ball was the best prospect. They said Fox had an 8% chance to be an all star.

Pelton is arguably ESPN's best analytics guy and has Fultz second to Ball in his stats projection over the first five years of their careers. He also believes those two are far better than everyone else (his projections particularly dislike Jackson, Fox, and Monk).

Do you have a link to his projections or can you pm me the info since I don't have insider? And do you know who Pelton had at the top last year between Simmons and Ingram?

For those of you who don't have Insider, I went back to 2013 and combined Pelton's top prospects. Here is the aggregated list, sorted by WARP:

Lonzo Ball (4.1)
Karl-Anthony Towns (4.0)
D'Angelo Russell (3.9)
Ben Simmons (3.6)
Kristaps Porzingis (3.5)
Nerlens Noel (3.5)
Marcus Smart (3.5)

^ I believe Fultz is at 3.3 (coincidentally is average warp for 2nd picks)

For this year's WARP. Isaac is 3rd. Jackson is 6th and Tatum is 8th

[Unbreakable99]

Pelton is arguably ESPN's best analytics guy and has Fultz second to Ball in his stats projection over the first five years of their careers. He also believes those two are far better than everyone else (his projections particularly dislike Jackson, Fox, and Monk).

Do you have a link to his projections or can you pm me the info since I don't have insider? And do you know who Pelton had at the top last year between Simmons and Ingram?

For those of you who don't have Insider, I went back to 2013 and combined Pelton's top prospects. Here is the aggregated list, sorted by WARP:

Lonzo Ball (4.1)
Karl-Anthony Towns (4.0)
D'Angelo Russell (3.9)
Ben Simmons (3.6)
Kristaps Porzingis (3.5)
Nerlens Noel (3.5)
Marcus Smart (3.5)

^ I believe Fultz is at 3.3 (coincidentally is average warp for 2nd picks)

Where's Ingram and Embiid?

[TTP]

Pelton is arguably ESPN's best analytics guy and has Fultz second to Ball in his stats projection over the first five years of their careers. He also believes those two are far better than everyone else (his projections particularly dislike Jackson, Fox, and Monk).

Do you have a link to his projections or can you pm me the info since I don't have insider? And do you know who Pelton had at the top last year between Simmons and Ingram?

For those of you who don't have Insider, I went back to 2013 and combined Pelton's top prospects. Here is the aggregated list, sorted by WARP:

Lonzo Ball (4.1)
Karl-Anthony Towns (4.0)
D'Angelo Russell (3.9)
Ben Simmons (3.6)
Kristaps Porzingis (3.5)
Nerlens Noel (3.5)
Marcus Smart (3.5)

^ I believe Fultz is at 3.3 (coincidentally is average warp for 2nd picks)

For this year's WARP. Isaac is 3rd. Jackson is 6th and Tatum is 8th

You can actually rank his WARP for every player back to the 2006 draft using this article:

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16235135/explaining-kevin-pelton-nba-draft-projection-system

[Negrodamus]

Pelton is arguably ESPN's best analytics guy and has Fultz second to Ball in his stats projection over the first five years of their careers. He also believes those two are far better than everyone else (his projections particularly dislike Jackson, Fox, and Monk).

Do you have a link to his projections or can you pm me the info since I don't have insider? And do you know who Pelton had at the top last year between Simmons and Ingram?

For those of you who don't have Insider, I went back to 2013 and combined Pelton's top prospects. Here is the aggregated list, sorted by WARP:

Lonzo Ball (4.1)
Karl-Anthony Towns (4.0)
D'Angelo Russell (3.9)
Ben Simmons (3.6)
Kristaps Porzingis (3.5)
Nerlens Noel (3.5)
Marcus Smart (3.5)

^ I believe Fultz is at 3.3 (coincidentally is average warp for 2nd picks)

For this year's WARP. Isaac is 3rd. Jackson is 6th and Tatum is 8th

I wish there was a VORP for college basketball. Although it's not really fair to measure, I think Fultz would be the top from this class.

[76ciology]

Do you have a link to his projections or can you pm me the info since I don't have insider? And do you know who Pelton had at the top last year between Simmons and Ingram?

For those of you who don't have Insider, I went back to 2013 and combined Pelton's top prospects. Here is the aggregated list, sorted by WARP:

Lonzo Ball (4.1)
Karl-Anthony Towns (4.0)
D'Angelo Russell (3.9)
Ben Simmons (3.6)
Kristaps Porzingis (3.5)
Nerlens Noel (3.5)
Marcus Smart (3.5)

^ I believe Fultz is at 3.3 (coincidentally is average warp for 2nd picks)

Where's Ingram and Embiid?

Embiid seems to have low WARP. 6th in that year's draft behind guys like Jordan Adams, Exum, Capela, Smart and Nurkic. Well Wiggins was 19th so he got that right.

the complete 2014 list

1. Smart
2. Capela
3. Nurkic
4. Exum
5. Adams
6. Embiid
7. Parker
8. Vonleh
9. Hairston
10. Ennis
11. Harris
12. Stokes
13. McDermott
14. Gordon
15. Randle
16. Anderson
17. McDaniels
18. Saric
19. Wiggins
20. Stauskas
21. Napier
22. LaVine
23. Young
24. Payton
25. Warren
26. Early
27. Payne
28. Hood
29. Grant
30. Clarkson


Also got 2015 right..
1.) Dlo
2.) Porz
3.) towns
7th.) mudiay
17.) okafor

2016..
1.) Ben Simmons
3.7 warp
2.) ingram
3.1 warp
3.) murray
2.6 warp
33.) jaylen
.9 warp

[sixers4real]

I believe that's just noise about Love. Why do we even would want him?
BTW, do you guys know when the trade will be official? Is there any chance it falls apart? I'm getting nervious, it'a 12.35 already, why not to make it happen?

[Sixersftw]

"Almost immediately after being cut, Markelle had rededicated himself to on-court skills. At [Fultz's personal coach] Williams’s instruction, he took 700 shots per day, spent hours swimming or boxing, committed to improving his footwork and vision and stretching the limits of his body.

Williams discovered a player motivated not by scholarships or riches but by revenge. So he used that."

http://www.csnphilly.com/the700level/markelle-fultzs-high-school-coach-regrets-cutting-him-varsity-sophomore

Perhaps he can use our division rivals essentially trading him as motivation.

We talking strangler 2.0?

[TTP]

^ I believe Fultz is at 3.3 (coincidentally is average warp for 2nd picks)

Where's Ingram and Embiid?

Embiid seems to have low WARP. 6th in that year's draft behind guys like Jordan Adams, Exum, Capela, Smart and Nurkic. Well Wiggins was 19th so he got that right.

the complete 2014 list

1. Smart
2. Capela
3. Nurkic
4. Exum
5. Adams
6. Embiid
7. Parker
8. Vonleh
9. Hairston
10. Ennis
11. Harris
12. Stokes
13. McDermott
14. Gordon
15. Randle
16. Anderson
17. McDaniels
18. Saric
19. Wiggins
20. Stauskas
21. Napier
22. LaVine
23. Young
24. Payton
25. Warren
26. Early
27. Payne
28. Hood
29. Grant
30. Clarkson


Also got 2015 right..
1.) Dlo
2.) Porz
3.) towns
7th.) mudiay
17.) okafor

2016..
1.) Ben Simmons
3.7 warp
2.) ingram
3.1 warp
3.) murray
2.6 warp
33.) jaylen
.9 warp

The Humble rankings that incorporate actual draft slot tends to improve projections. Here is his explanation:

Inspired by draft analyst Layne Vashro's Humble model ( Vashro is now working for Kroenke Sports & Entertainment, the parent company of the Denver Nuggets), in 2015 I introduced consensus projections that also include the league's assessment of a prospect's talent. For past prospects, I measure this with where they were actually drafted. For current prospects, I estimate this using their rank in Ford's top 100.

Using the actual draft slot plays a factor in subjective scouting analysis and improves projections, so I tend to use it as my primary ranking of players, while also showing the stats-only projections when possible.

Embiid ranked 2nd in the 2014 Humble rankings, just behind Smart. Obviously it can't be used pre-draft.