Over 10 years, what % of draft picks #2-5 end up better than Butler??

[ThreeMileAllan]

For 2014 on, I feel it's too early to compare their careers to Butler. So we will go from 2004-2013 and individually look at CONSENSUS who was/is better than Butler and look at the percentage of picks to see if it's worth it to trade Butler away for the Bulls.

EDIT: I am making Butler the comparison line because I often hear that Butler is not a #1 who can lead us to a chip. That the Bulls should tank to find their KD or LeBron or Westbrook or cp3 or Steph as that is the "only way" to acquire a #1. (I personally think that Butler is good enough, but this isn't for me.)

We are looking for players that are of the CONSENSUS opinion are better than Butler. Aka the reason to tank.

2004
Emeka Okafor
Ben Gordon
Shaun Livingston
Devin Harris
0

2005
Marvin Williams
Deron Williams
Chris Paul
Raymond Felton
1

2006
LaMarcus Aldridge
Adam Morrison
Tyrus Thomas
Shelden Williams
0.5

2007
Kevin Durant
Al Horford
Mike Conley
Jeff Green
1

2008
Micheal Beasley
OJ Mayo
Russell Westbrook
Kevin Love
1

2009
Hasheem Thabeet
James Harden
Tyreke Evans
Ricky Rubio
1

2010
Evan Turner
Derrick Favors
Wesley Johnson
DeMarcus Cousins
0.5

2011
Derrick Williams
Enes Kanter
Tristan Thompson
Jonas Valunciunas
(Butler drafted at #30)
0

2012
MKG
Bradley Beal
Dion Waiters
Thomas Robinson
0

2013
Victor Oladipo
Otto Porter
Cody Zeller
Alex Len
0


In ten years of #2-5 picks, around 4 or 5 players were better than Butler out of 40. I like simple math so I'm gunna say 4, since LMA and DMC are debatable. 4/40 picks are undebatably better than Butler. That's a 10% chance you end up with a player better than Butler if you have picks in those ranges.

There are a few camps in the Butler debate, trade if the Godfather offer is there, trade for what Celtics fans feel is market, or don't trade at all.

*GODFATHER OFFER: #3 pick this year, (2018 Lakers/2019 Kings or 2018 Nets) plus Brown/Crowder.
*PERCEIVED MARKET: #3 pick plus Brown/Crowder

Let's see if can try to make some estimations for the Bulls chances of rebuilding a contender


CHANCE WE REPLACE BUTLER OVER NEXT FIVE YEARS W/ GODFATHER OFFER)

Let's use some basic probability...
0.9x, x=P(Player better than Butler)


1 pick = 10% chance we find a new Butler (80% chance we don't)
2 picks = 19% chance we find at least one new Butler (81% chance we don't)
3 picks = 27% chance we find at least one new Butler (73% chance we don't)
4 picks = 35% chance we find at least one new Butler (65% chance we don't)
...
7 picks = 47% chance we find at least one new Butler (53% chance we don't)
Hint: That progression is not linear.


To put 7 picks in perspective, even if we get 2 picks from Boston and have our own and assuming that ALL of our picks are top 5 (HUGE ASSUMPTION) in FIVE YEARS of tanking, the Bulls only have a 47% shot at replacing Butler with another Butler, just to end up where they were BEFORE the trade. Even Sacramento struggled to race to the bottom five this year. Tanking to get a top 5 pick is never a sure thing!

Ok, now that is put in perspective... let's look at the chances we land TWO Butlers



CHANCE WE LAND TWO BUTLERS OVER NEXT 5 YEARS W/ GODFATHER OFFER

Let's use Binomial Probability Formula:

P(k out of N)=(N!/(k!(N-k)!)) (p^k) (q^(N-k))

N = picks, k =2, p = P(Butler), q = (1-p)

http://www.dummies.com/education/math/statistics/how-to-find-binomial-probabilities-using-a-statistical-formula/
http://vassarstats.net/textbook/ch5apx.html

2 picks = 1% chance we find two new Butlers
3 picks = 2.8% chance we find two or more new Butlers
4 picks = 5.2% chance we find two or more new Butlers
5 picks = 8.1% chance we find two or more new Butlers
6 picks = 11.4% chance we find two or more new Butlers
7 picks = 14.9% chance we find two or more new Butlers



LETS DO THREE BUTLERS!! THE OKC/GOLDEN STATE DREAM!!

Again, we use Binomial Probability Formula:

P(k out of N)=(N!/(k!(N-k)!)) (p^k) (q^(N-k))

N = picks, k =3, p = P(Butler), q = (1-p)

3 picks = 0.01% chance we find three new Butlers
4 picks = 0.36% chance we find three or more new Butlers
5 picks = 0.86% chance we find three or more new Butlers
6 picks = 1.58% chance we find three or more new Butlers
7 picks = 2.57% chance we find three or more new Butlers

So the odds of being the next OKC or Golden State after 5 years of tanking, even with the Boston picks are pretty
low.



THE TANK OR NOT TO TANK, THAT IS THE QUESTION

The big question to ask yourselves as a fan base is, does Butler seem well-liked enough around the league to
recruit one or more stars to the Bulls? Is that probability greater than or less than the Bulls building through the draft?

Keep in mind that Paxson is if nothing else, given us a shot with flexible contracts nearly every season. Even after 2010, we had opportunities to trade for Melo because Paxson signed players to building block contracts that could be stacked to meet any trade package salary total. That's smart. Say what you will about recruiting, but Gasol, Boozer, Wade, Wallace all chose us over other teams that could have paid similar amounts or more. That Chicago can't sign free agents is a load of crap imo. In fact, Durant often cites Gasol signing with Chicago as one of the days that he realized he couldn't recruit anyone to OKC. It was absolutely a factor in him leaving.

Anyway, this isn't perfect or end all be all, this is just meant to give us a perspective of our chances of replicating our current situation, replicating a 2 star situation, or an OKC situation via draft. Draw your own conclusions.

I'll let you guys debate this.


EXTRA CREDIT

If we dont' do a trade, we let Butler walk in 2018, we tank naturally. We have one, maybe two less picks than if we had traded Butler. Look at the odds listed above, does it really hurt our rebuilding process by a ton? Not really, when you look at the percentages. We're all arguing for a small percentage points, even fractions of a percent.

addendum
Also, I could include 2003, but then I'd have to include 2002-2000 as well, notoriously bad drafts, since I would go back to 1997. Either way, it doesn't affect the numbers much, the general discussion remains the same. I think I went back and looked and it was like an additional 7 players out of 70 were CONSENSUS better than Butler if you include 2003-1997. 7/70 is pretty much the same as the 4/40 I used. Feel free to use your own p if you want to make other assumptions (starter level quality, etc), I linked the binomial calculator upthread.

[League Circles]

Great thread. IMO 2006 and 2010 are definitely zero. I think Butler is better than LMA and DMC have been.

[inescape]

Thats the thing with the NBA, everything is a long shot. Nobody is debating that. The problem is not Butler, it is how do we build around Butler with the current situation this horrible FO has put the team in? The only reasonable answer is FA. The odds of the Bulls landing two top FA are? Not much higher than 10% I'd imagine, especially when they get to go head to head with the Lakers next offseason.

So either way the odds are slim and none. It is just a question of which way do you want to roll the dice?

[sco]

Great post.

I think the crux of the dump Jimmy/tank strategy is what I call the Schroedinger's Cat effect. If we get a pick in a trade, despite the correct statistics for non #1 picks, that pick is simultaneously both Chris Paul and Thomas Robinson until the player show what he is. So despite stats clearly showing something different, it FEELS like it's a 50/50 proposition. That uncertainty leaves one with hope vs. the perceived certainty that JB can't get us a championship.

[coldfish]

First off, great post. I hope this gets a lot of traffic. Lots of people seem to think that lottery picks have a lot of value and they simply don't. Tanking tends to be a long process and most early on draft picks end up going nowhere. The only pick that tends to really start working out is #1.

With that said, don't look at a Butler trade like this. The Bulls are in a uniquely bad situation. The players around Butler are absolute crap and so is the coach. You also have people like Wade taking up lots of capspace. In 2 years, Butler is either going to walk or sign a supermax deal as a declining older player.

Trading Butler for, say, two high end prospects brings you 20% closer to shortening the inevitable rebuild cycle. That's a lot, especially compared to the idea of just watching the team slowly fade and having nothing to kickstart a rebuild.

If Butler was younger or the Bulls had some type of path to fixing themselves, there is no way I would trade him for anything other than a Lebron James type prospect (ie. a player who looks to be a generational talent). Unfortunately, the Bulls are in such a bad place that you have to think differently.

Side note, qualifier as always: Any Butler trade has to coincide with the execution of GarPax. No point in rebuilding with the front office that created this mess. Might as well keep Butler then.

[inescape]

Another thing to consider. This FO has never been good in FA, but they have been pretty good in the draft. Going off memory Paxson in the top 10 has only had one real bust; Tyrus Thomas. His other picks; Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Noah, Rose have all been pretty good. He has also found value late in Gibson and Butler himself.

[sh0ck]

Thats the thing with the NBA, everything is a long shot. Nobody is debating that. The problem is not Butler, it is how do we build around Butler with the current situation this horrible FO has put the team in? The only reasonable answer is FA. The odds of the Bulls landing two top FA are? Not much higher than 10% I'd imagine, especially when they get to go head to head with the Lakers next offseason.

So either way the odds are slim and none. It is just a question of which way do you want to roll the dice?

This may just be perception, but I feel like Free Agency is much easier to predict and control (especially with how buddy buddy everyone has gotten in the last couple of years) than the Draft (which is dependent on personnel development, fit, coaching, ping pong balls).

[stepic]

If we got 2 picks back (this year and next) it means two potential lottery picks plus our own next year (because we should hopefully suck too). So we're at least swinging. At the moment it's just a slow and depressing decline.

If I was a Phili fan despite their lack of success I'd be far happier looking forward than our last few years.

[weneeda2guard]

I was about 60/40 on it until it comes out lebron is leaving for the west next season.

I'm for keeping a top 3 player in the east (once pg13 and lebron are out west)

We pair jimmy with kyrie we in the finals and don't need to suck for 6 years and shuffle through a myriad of young prospects to get there, we can avoid the 20 win seasons and the desperate attempts to consolidate these young players to add a proven star. We can avoid over paying a fringe all star to just add something to these young prospects like the lakers did with the deng and mozgov signings. We just need to strip down for 1 season, accumulate as many assets as we can, keep our cap space let cleveland get there heads bust in by the warriors again, then ante up with everything we have to trade for kyrie. Kyrie and jimmy have that same bond that lebron and wade had when they joined together. We have to facilitate getting them 2 together. I'm sure they would much rather become a duo in chicago than cleveland (ask noah) lol

Its risky, but worth it to be back in the finals. Kyrie and jimmy plus whoever else we add with our max space gets us to the finals.

[DuckIII]

I agree with Coldfish completely. Great opening post and in a lot of contexts it would be valuable.

But it's not the right analysis to employ to the Bulls situation. For exactly the reasons coldfish already stated.

[davhern]

i honestly think the keep jimmy and hope he can get someone else here in the next 2 years has both a higher floor and ceiling than burning it down and going the philly/minnesota/etc. route which almost always seems to work out horrifically.

[Ice Man]

Yeah, that's the math of it. But a lot of people would prefer the dream that probably won't work out to the reality that they have. Which is fine, we all seek different things as fans. I dispute those who try to mess with the facts and act as if Boston's #3 pick (to cite one example) is equal value for Jimmy Butler or Paul George (certainly it is not). But I can't quarrel with chasing the dream, even if it is a highly unlikely dream.

[weneeda2guard]

I also believe, Kyrie jimmy and Demarcus cousins have secretly agreed to join forces next season. They were all really close during team usa, the same way lebron wade and bosh (melo) were.

[inescape]

Thats the thing with the NBA, everything is a long shot. Nobody is debating that. The problem is not Butler, it is how do we build around Butler with the current situation this horrible FO has put the team in? The only reasonable answer is FA. The odds of the Bulls landing two top FA are? Not much higher than 10% I'd imagine, especially when they get to go head to head with the Lakers next offseason.

So either way the odds are slim and none. It is just a question of which way do you want to roll the dice?

This may just be perception, but I feel like Free Agency is much easier to predict and control (especially with how buddy buddy everyone has gotten in the last couple of years) than the Draft (which is dependent on personnel development, fit, coaching, ping pong balls).

I agree it is easy to predict, you either need the generational talent like Lebron, or the location players seem to like; Florida or California. Butler is willing to recruit which increases our odds, I imagine he is someone others of his generation would like to team up with, also increases our odds. I just am not convinced it is enough.

What I see as the most likely scenario is we strike out on the big fish next year, and sign 2nd tier guys. This will make the team around 50ish wins if lucky and bounced in the 2nd round. That, or they will then look to trade Butler as a rental and get a PG13 like return. This will start the rebuild.

[inescape]

I also believe, Kyrie jimmy and Demarcus cousins have secretly agreed to join forces next season. They were all really close during team usa, the same way lebron wade and bosh (melo) were.

Not possible since we have no assets. Could get Cousins next offseason, and Kyrie the year after I suppose. So much can happen between now and then though, but it is as appropriate of a dream as anything else at this point.

[RebuildaBulls]

Those who try to propose trades of players of equal value or potential of value will be let down because it rarely ever happens in this league. By league history teams tend to win with former top lottery picks more often then not, so you take your chances if you have nothing else going for you

[ThreeMileAllan]

RebuildaBulls, where do you stand on this topic?

[HoopsterJones]

I appreciate you for putting the work into this analysis Funkman. Great work. I'd figure it be around 10% just as a rough guess.

[boundbymusic]

I've been trying to clear up this analogy for a few minutes....and I'm close but I don't think it's there yet.

Kind of have to look at it in terms of lottery tickets.

Butler is like a $1 scratch off where you have to scratch off matching numbers to win the jackpot (NBA title). SO you scratched the first and got Jimmy, you can redeem you $5 (playoff appearances but nothing else), but you have to scratch 2 more matching numbers to win big and the odds of that are bad (100s of spots to scratch to choose from). Also, you only get a few chances to match but after a few tries if you don't match you lose not only the ability to hit the jackpot but also the ability to redeem for $5 and get nothing (he walks).

The same tickets also have one jackpot spot, if you scratch that you automatically win BIG. Odds are horrible and that spot only works if it is the first and only spot you scratch on the ticket.

The future draft picks are basically buying you more tickets. You know with Jimmy you have that $5 winner, but you've already blown through your allotment of scratches to try and win the title.

With each future draft pick you have, you have the hope that you're going to scratch that first one and it's the lotto winner.

[Lauri_Legend]

Where is John Wall and Kyrie Irving