RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #1

[eminence]

Spoiler:

A lot to ask, but how do KG/Thurmond look by those 5 and 10 year numbers? Maybe Mikan too if we've got the data.

I have some Thurmond with/without, if that's worth anything:

[spoiler]
"CON" means "WITH" / "SIN" means "WITHOUT"

Thanks man!

[70sFan]

I'm not a stats guy. Longevity is very important thing for me. My (probably biased) formula is separating player's seasons into tiers:

Tier 1: GOAT level
Tier 2: All-time Great level
Tier 3: Superstar level
Tier 4: All-Star level
Tier 5: Good Contributor level
Tier 6: "Role Player" level
Tier 7: Almost non-valuable seasons

My 6 potential GOATs are Russell, Wilt, Kareem, Jordan, Duncan and James. I'd try to breakdown their careers to my tiers system.

Rest of the post later.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #242 (and now nearly 72 hours in on this thread), we have 34 votes.....so a player would need 18 votes to hold a majority. The first place votes are as follows:

Michael Jordan - 12 (andrewww, Clyde Frazier, CyrusMan122000, Eddy_JukeZ, Hornet Mania, JordansBulls, mischievous, RCM88x, RSCD3_, scabbarista, Tesla, Winsome Gerbil)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 11 (Blackmill, Dr Positivity, Joao Saraiva, LABird, Mister Hibachi, Narigo, Outside, Quotatious, trex_8063,
TrueLAfan, wojoaderge)
Bill Russell - 8 (ardee, BasketballFan7, Doctor MJ, Dr Spaceman, drza, kayess, penbeast0, Texas Chuck)
Tim Duncan - 2 (eminence, micahclay)
Lebron James - 1 (Jaivl)

No majority has been achieved. As per the RCV system previously outlined, Lebron James (with the least number of 1st place votes) would be eliminated from contention. The 2nd choice of that voter (Jaivl) was for Michael Jordan, which would be transferred to MJ's 1st place total, making the score:

MJ - 13
Kareem - 11
Russell - 8
Duncan - 2

Still no majority. So the next lowest number of first place votes (Duncan) would be eliminated from contention. Both of those two voters had Kareem as their 2nd choice, so those votes would transfer to Kareem's total:

MJ - 13
Kareem - 13
Russell - 8

Still no majority. So the player with next fewest number of 1st place votes (Russell) is eliminated from contention. Of those eight voters:
BasketballFan7 had his 2nd choice for a player who has already been eliminated from contention (Lebron), so his votes are now what I'll call "ghost votes" (not counting toward the winner, but will still include him as one of the original voters, such that 18 is still required for a majority).
kayess had his 2nd choice as Kareem.
Dr Spaceman never specified his 2nd choice (implied it was between MJ and Lebron).
The other five (ardee, Doctor MJ, drza, penbeast0, Texas Chuck) all stated their 2nd pick as Michael Jordan, bringing the tally to:

MJ - 18
Kareem - 14

So we finally have the slimmest of majorities for Michael Jordan, so I'm going to be moving on.
I'm sorry to those who didn't get their votes/comments in, I realize I'm partly to blame for starting sooner than I'd implied. otoh, I did leave this open an extra day and gave multiple notifications to everyone along the way. I have some participants who have stated they're anxious to move on to the next thread. I'm not sure if leaving this open even longer will change the ultimate outcome anyway. So I will have that one up shortly.

Please feel free to continue posting/discussing in this one (or in some instances it may be appropriate to copy posts you want to reply to over to the new thread once I have it up, so the convo can in the more current/recent thread), but I'm going to close this one down and start the #2 thread.

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[wojoaderge]

As many have said so far:
- the deadliest shot in NBA history

Not true. According to Dipper's research (and mine stat tracking confirms that) KAJ shot 56% from skyhook. That gives 1,09 ppp. Curry has much more deadliest shot, as his three pointers give 1,31 ppp.

Lol

[Outside]

As many have said so far:
- the deadliest shot in NBA history

Not true. According to Dipper's research (and mine stat tracking confirms that) KAJ shot 56% from skyhook. That gives 1,09 ppp. Curry has much more deadliest shot, as his three pointers give 1,31 ppp.

Kareem's hook was the most reliable and productive go-to shot in NBA history. He could get a quality shot off at any time against any defense. He needed the barest minimum of space to pivot and elevate with it. He could shoot it with either hand out to mid-range distance. You couldn't hack-a-Shaq him, because he shot 72% at the line.

Curry's three is more valuable, but he can be smothered by multiple defenders. A good chunk of Curry's value is in drawing the defense to him to create space and opportunities for others, and that takes time on the clock, which isn't always available, and relies on quality teammates to cash in those opportunities he creates. There's nothing wrong with being unselfish and leaning on quality teammates -- every great team needs them -- but what I'm talking about (and I think others are talking about with references like "deadliest shot") is Kareem being the most productive, reliable, unstoppable go-to guy in league history.

[Hornet Mania]

Very strong support for Kareem even at spot one, I like it.

[trex_8063]

moved

[THKNKG]

A lot to ask, but how do KG/Thurmond look by those 5 and 10 year numbers? Maybe Mikan too if we've got the data.

I have some Thurmond with/without, if that's worth anything:

Spoiler:

"CON" means "WITH" / "SIN" means "WITHOUT"

Remember pace was really high, so those numbers would be ~20% lower at a modern pace.

You don't happen to have a spreadsheet with those numbers for more players do you?


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[PCProductions]

As many have said so far:
- the deadliest shot in NBA history

Not true. According to Dipper's research (and mine stat tracking confirms that) KAJ shot 56% from skyhook. That gives 1,09 ppp. Curry has much more deadliest shot, as his three pointers give 1,31 ppp.

Kareem's hook was the most reliable and productive go-to shot in NBA history. He could get a quality shot off at any time against any defense. He needed the barest minimum of space to pivot and elevate with it. He could shoot it with either hand out to mid-range distance. You couldn't hack-a-Shaq him, because he shot 72% at the line.

Curry's three is more valuable, but he can be smothered by multiple defenders. A good chunk of Curry's value is in drawing the defense to him to create space and opportunities for others, and that takes time on the clock, which isn't always available, and relies on quality teammates to cash in those opportunities he creates. There's nothing wrong with being unselfish and leaning on quality teammates -- every great team needs them -- but what I'm talking about (and I think others are talking about with references like "deadliest shot") is Kareem being the most productive, reliable, unstoppable go-to guy in league history.

You could deny Kareem the ball. Shaq as well. There are always ways to stop GOATs, it just comes at a very expensive cost.

[Blackmill]

In light of comments that I had cherry picked Kareem's clips from the 1976 All Star Game, and that he was actually bad defensively, I have gone over every defensive possession while he was on the court. Some important things:

1. Kareem's transition defense was quite good. He was beat down the floor once by his man but stopped the break multiple times. Even when having to defend multiple players at once.

2. He made fourteen good help rotations to just four bad (or missed) ones. And most of the "bad" help plays are arguably not bad.

3. He defended the PnR well seven times and poorly just twice. While defending the PnR, the only shots he allowed in the paint, he blocked. The East generally got bad shots, or no shots, when going at Kareem in the PnR.

4. Kareem did not give up ten offensive rebounds. There were four possessions where he didn't go for the rebound, but had he, would have had a decent chance at getting the board. The claimed ten offensive boards he gave up seems deceitful.

5. In the end, he influenced about 70% of defensive possessions while he was on the floor.

6. I'll stand by my claim that Kareem was exceptional defensively. He wasn't Duncan, or Russell, but I think the list of defenders better than him is short.

Some of the clips have comments. My plan was to make comments for all of them but I don't have the time.


_______________________________________Transition (11) _______________________________________

These possessions are transition plays where Kareem's assignment was in the play. The reason for this condition is it seems the fairest means to determine if Kareem should have been able to defend in transition. Generally, this only excludes true fast breaks, where the shot attempt happens after two or three seconds.

The Good (7)


Spoiler:
Kareem gets back in transition and contests the pull up forcing a dangerous pass.



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Kareem forces a 3-on-1 fast break to take a 12- or 13-foot jumper which he does a fair job pressuring.



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Kareem gets back and contests McAdoo's pull up.



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Kareem positions himself to stop the pass to the cutter. Although he doesn't help contest Smith, Cowens is cutting hard down the middle, so the choice to stay back seems appropriate.



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Kareem gets back to help cut off drive attempt.



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Kareem defends two players at once and blocks the layup.



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Kareem steals the ball, which is a little risky, but he wasn't going to win a foot race with Collins.


The Neutral (3)


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Kareem turns over the ball and is left defending against two players. He ends up getting a piece of the ball but it still goes in.



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Kareem makes a risky play at the ball and forces a tough shot. However, had Kareem rotated earlier, Rick Barry would have been defending two players underneath the basket, while at a size disadvantage.



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Kareem could have shown more hustle here, be he's not beat by his man, and this breakdown has much more to do with the guards.



The Bad (1)

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Kareem is beat back in transition.

______________________________________Pick and Roll (13)______________________________________

The Good (7)

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Kareem shows a little on this PnR, and when Havlicek drives, Kareem keeps with him and blocks the layup.



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Barry is picked off and Kareem switches onto Havlicek to stop any drive or jumper.



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Kareem shows on both PnRs, and on the second, strongly contests the pull up to force a dangerous pass.



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Kareem positions himself in anticipation of Tomjanovich curling off the screen, which turns into a PnR,
where Kareem shows enough to make Tomjanovich hesitate on the jumper and force a tough shot.



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The Neutral (4)


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The Bad (2)


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_____________________________________Help Defense (22)_____________________________________

The Good (14)

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The Neutral (4)

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The Bad (4)

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________________________________Defensive Rebounding (13)________________________________

The Good (5)

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Kareem gets the defensive rebound.


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Kareem gets the defensive rebound.


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Kareem gets the defensive rebound.


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Kareem gets the defensive rebound.


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Kareem gets the defensive rebound.


The Neutral (4)

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Really bad bounce on this rebound.


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Another pretty bad bounce but this could at least be grabbed.


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Kareem knows Winters can get the rebound but probably should have grabbed it himself.


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The Bad (4)

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_______________________________________Man Defense (7)_______________________________________

The Good (3)

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Kareem contests the mid range jumper.



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The Neutral (1)

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Kareem doesn't contest the long two but it's a shot that can be forfeited.


The Bad (3)


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Kareem's a bit behind McAdoo, possibly from shadowing the cutter, and doesn't get a hand up.



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______________________________________Not Involved (27)______________________________________

These are possessions where the offense occurred away from Kareem and there's no missed help opportunities. Many of these are fast breaks. A fast break is typically only listed under "Not Involved" rather than "Transition" if neither Kareem nor his defensive assignment play a role. Thus, these are usually fast outlet passes, that result in buckets in just a few seconds. No commentary for these clips.

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[JordansBulls]

A lot of the above just says "image"

[Blackmill]

A lot of the above just says "image"

Sorry JB, but I don't know what the problem is. Usually that means that ".gif" was not appended to the url, but I just checked the post, and that's not the issue. Otherwise, all the clips show for me, and I don't have the time to mess about with the videos. Putting together all this footage, even for a single game, is super time consuming.

[Jaivl]

A lot to ask, but how do KG/Thurmond look by those 5 and 10 year numbers? Maybe Mikan too if we've got the data.

I have some Thurmond with/without, if that's worth anything:

Spoiler:

"CON" means "WITH" / "SIN" means "WITHOUT"

Remember pace was really high, so those numbers would be ~20% lower at a modern pace.

You don't happen to have a spreadsheet with those numbers for more players do you?


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

Oh, I do. I'm gonna be using them where needed/requested.

[Xherdan 23]

He missed, Mikan, Russell (by one year), Robinson (by one year), Shaq, and Dwight Howard (who, of course, isn't eligible yet).

That's it.

(EDIT: Well, Mutombo's in the Hall, but I imagine most people would have Howard ranked higher. But for the sake of accuracy...)

Yao, Zo?

Ah, you're right. They're both in. Another oversight. Thank you.

You've reminded me I need to update that in my Kareem file since, as you pointed out, that's outdated.

Sabonis is in the HOF.

[penbeast0]

Yao, Zo?

Ah, you're right. They're both in. Another oversight. Thank you.

You've reminded me I need to update that in my Kareem file since, as you pointed out, that's outdated.

Sabonis is in the HOF.

As long as we are at it, so are Easy Ed Macauley, Bob Kurland (never played in NBA though), Clyde Lovelette, and Neil Johnston from the 50s.

[JordansBulls]

I think this is the closest Jordan has been run in any no. 1 contest ever.

The panel was really a mixed crowd not really that pro Jordan for the most part. I honestly thought he wouldn't get the top spot this time around when I saw the panel.

[ThaRegul8r]

I think this is the closest Jordan has been run in any no. 1 contest ever.

The panel was really a mixed crowd not really that pro Jordan for the most part. I honestly thought he wouldn't get the top spot this time around when I saw the panel.

I didn't make any predictions this time like I did last time, but I did say Jordan wouldn't be dethroned. I said LeBron wasn't going to do it this year, and there weren't enough Kareem people to knock him off. (The only two contenders based on the board's trend at this point in time.) I'm not sure why you were concerned about Jordan losing his consensus #1 spot.

[JordansBulls]

I think this is the closest Jordan has been run in any no. 1 contest ever.

The panel was really a mixed crowd not really that pro Jordan for the most part. I honestly thought he wouldn't get the top spot this time around when I saw the panel.

I didn't make any predictions this time like I did last time, but I did say Jordan wouldn't be dethroned. I said LeBron wasn't going to do it this year, and there weren't enough Kareem people to knock him off. (The only two contenders based on the board's trend at this point in time.) I'm not sure why you were concerned about Jordan losing his consensus #1 spot.

I thought there were a lot of Kareem people to be honest especially when I saw the pre thread. But I think they were Pro Kareem so that next time they can vote for Lebron for longevity reasons. But Longevity doesn't mean much unless you are gaining accolades and/or titles in the process. For example I don't care how long Tom Brady plays if he ain't winning titles or getting MVP's while playing.

[Pablo Novi]

I "Missed The Battle"; But It Was Awesome
I missed this GOAT #1 thread discussion when it first happened. I've just now read the whole thread.
I would have voted Kareem GOAT #1 (the rest of my GOAT Top 5: Magic, MJ, LBJ, TD).

General impression: really remarkable discussion; with a bleep-load of top quality posts & virtually no bad-quality ones. Wow.
Kudos to RealGM and this panel in particular.

[oaktownwarriors87]

As many have said so far:
- the deadliest shot in NBA history

Not true. According to Dipper's research (and mine stat tracking confirms that) KAJ shot 56% from skyhook. That gives 1,09 ppp. Curry has much more deadliest shot, as his three pointers give 1,31 ppp.

Kareem's hook was the most reliable and productive go-to shot in NBA history. He could get a quality shot off at any time against any defense. He needed the barest minimum of space to pivot and elevate with it. He could shoot it with either hand out to mid-range distance. You couldn't hack-a-Shaq him, because he shot 72% at the line.

Curry's three is more valuable, but he can be smothered by multiple defenders. A good chunk of Curry's value is in drawing the defense to him to create space and opportunities for others, and that takes time on the clock, which isn't always available, and relies on quality teammates to cash in those opportunities he creates. There's nothing wrong with being unselfish and leaning on quality teammates -- every great team needs them -- but what I'm talking about (and I think others are talking about with references like "deadliest shot") is Kareem being the most productive, reliable, unstoppable go-to guy in league history.

Most reliable and unstoppable? Is this a joke?

Peak Curry averaged 42.5 points on 28.6 FGA per 100 possessions.
Peak KAJ averaged 33.4 points on 27.1 FGA per 100 possession.

Curry is able to get his shot off at a higher rate while being much, much more efficient.