2017 Draft Pick(s): Babble-on 5

[Green_teamer]

Ya fake WoJ my bad lol

[jirrit]

As do I. I also have fears that he'll just say **** it and pick him 3rd. It's probably going to be Jackson (hopefully not) or Tatum (better than Jackson) but like he proved with trading the #1 he wants to always be the smartest guy in the room. Often times that does not work out.

If ainge is truthful in that whoever he picked # 1 wasn't going to be fultz aren't you happy he traded down? If ainge wasn't going to pick Fultz regardless then Ainge won that trade no matter what if he still gets his guy. Even if that pick turns out to be 20th it would be a free extra pick to do what he was going to do anyway

Sure. But that doesn't mean he was right to do so. With Fultz people had to make up red flags. But he is the best player in this draft. The other players? Some can shoot some can't some can't defend some have small wingspans etc...Danny Ainge gave that up. But he gave it up for a very light return. Whoever he drafts probably won't be better than Fultz I'm just tired of this crap. The Celtics need a superstar and should be shooting for players with that kind of potential. Fultz has that potential and to a lesser extent Ball. That's it.

If that pick turns out to be 20 and Fultz becomes a superstar Ainge needs to be canned.

I'm pretty tired of the song you're singing. You seem to know who's gonna be the best player. Well, why hasn't the best players not always been picked first and so on? I know, freedom of speech but you are constantly, but really constantly, whining about the same stuff.

[KGboss]

If ainge is truthful in that whoever he picked # 1 wasn't going to be fultz aren't you happy he traded down? If ainge wasn't going to pick Fultz regardless then Ainge won that trade no matter what if he still gets his guy. Even if that pick turns out to be 20th it would be a free extra pick to do what he was going to do anyway

Sure. But that doesn't mean he was right to do so. With Fultz people had to make up red flags. But he is the best player in this draft. The other players? Some can shoot some can't some can't defend some have small wingspans etc...Danny Ainge gave that up. But he gave it up for a very light return. Whoever he drafts probably won't be better than Fultz I'm just tired of this crap. The Celtics need a superstar and should be shooting for players with that kind of potential. Fultz has that potential and to a lesser extent Ball. That's it.

If that pick turns out to be 20 and Fultz becomes a superstar Ainge needs to be canned.

I'm pretty tired of the song you're singing. You seem to know who's gonna be the best player. Well, why hasn't the best players not always been picked first and so on? I know, freedom of speech but you are constantly, but really constantly, whining about the same stuff.

The stuff is legit to whine about.

[chrisab123]

If ainge is truthful in that whoever he picked # 1 wasn't going to be fultz aren't you happy he traded down? If ainge wasn't going to pick Fultz regardless then Ainge won that trade no matter what if he still gets his guy. Even if that pick turns out to be 20th it would be a free extra pick to do what he was going to do anyway

Not if the pick is smith when you've got guys like ball/tatum/jackson to choose from at 3 depending on what LA does.

That's like trading a dollar for a dime. We already traded ot for 50 cents.

Stop riding ainges nuts regardless of what he does you guys are sickening with that

Your feeding too much into the hype of the mock drafters. The word on this draft was that there's a bunch of prospects with similar value in this draft. Ainge does not feel like he is getting a worse player.

Do you really trust him to use his best judgment when it comes to the draft? When is the last time he drafted an all star player? I'll even give him Rondo since he had Phoenix pick him. Before Rondo? Zero. Yes he's picked later in the draft but if you look at the all NBA teams theres a few that went in the 2nd round. What he did was he had a get out of jail free card. If Fultz busts then every single evaluator outside of Boston was wrong. We could say well Danny took the best player on the board and thats it. Maybe Ball. However, because he wanted an extra asset or likes Josh Jackson better or whatever reason decided that he was going to be the only talent evaluator to say Fultz isn't the best prospect in the draft. Will the Celtics fire him even if Fultz turns out to be Harden and the #3 Busts? Hell no. They look at him as a part of ownership. Problem is that when your job is never on the line you can get away with trades like that without any repercussions.

[Kolkmania]

Why is his 37% from 3 not sustainable? Just got fluky hot?

90 shots is nothing, almost literally. Nylon Calculus has a great article about the noise present in 3PT% when the number of attempts is lower than a couple hundreds.
Projecting shot is extremely difficult and dependent on many things. However I like to look at a combination of multiple things:
- 3PT%
- 3PA
- FT%
- Shooting form
- Footwork
- History shooting in high school/youth tournaments

Josh Jackson literally checks one box, the 3PT%. Everything else is not even average, but absolutely horrible. Let me say that I think that the chance of Fox becoming an average shooter in the NBA is bigger than Jackson's chance.

How does Tatum rack up? I know he's a worst by just raw 3PT% but, he's a much better free throw shooter.

EDIT: Ah found the article, they say he'll be about 35-36% from 3 and Jackson about 32%.

No that's not it, that's just a projection based on a method correlating percentage, volume and FT%.

This is it: http://fansided.com/2014/08/29/long-take-three-point-shooting-stabilize/

I have confidence in Tatum's jumper. He didn't shoot them at all in high school, but he was always a deadly midrange shooter. He had to adjust from college midrange, to college 3 and next year from college 3 to NBA 3. That takes some time.
I don't think his form is bad though, I do think some minor tweaks would improve his numbers.
- Jayson has a similar problem as Kawhi at San Diego, although in a much less severe degree. The degree between his body and shooting arm > 90 degrees and it should be reduced a bit. That would prevent him from cogging it back all the way above his head and releasing a sort of slingshot.

- His footwork, he does have his feet angled a bit towards the rim, which I like, but his lower body isn't aligned with his feet. Which results in a cramped position, that prevents energy flowing from his lower body towards his shot. For a more consistent shot you want to prevent that, since depending on your upper body results makes you vulnerable for fatigue. So I hope he angles his lower body better, or I've seen some shooting coach on Twitter suggest that he should square up entirely, similar to Klay Thompson. I don't know what's better for him, that's a personal matter and he should search for the best answer himself.

[Froob]

Wonder what team waste their pick on a vet this year. That Hornets trade for Bellinelli

[Green_teamer]

Not if the pick is smith when you've got guys like ball/tatum/jackson to choose from at 3 depending on what LA does.

That's like trading a dollar for a dime. We already traded ot for 50 cents.

Stop riding ainges nuts regardless of what he does you guys are sickening with that

Your feeding too much into the hype of the mock drafters. The word on this draft was that there's a bunch of prospects with similar value in this draft. Ainge does not feel like he is getting a worse player.

Do you really trust him to use his best judgment when it comes to the draft? When is the last time he drafted an all star player? I'll even give him Rondo since he had Phoenix pick him. Before Rondo? Zero. Yes he's picked later in the draft but if you look at the all NBA teams theres a few that went in the 2nd round. What he did was he had a get out of jail free card. If Fultz busts then every single evaluator outside of Boston was wrong. We could say well Danny took the best player on the board and thats it. Maybe Ball. However, because he wanted an extra asset or likes Josh Jackson better or whatever reason decided that he was going to be the only talent evaluator to say Fultz isn't the best prospect in the draft. Will the Celtics fire him even if Fultz turns out to be Harden and the #3 Busts? Hell no. They look at him as a part of ownership. Problem is that when your job is never on the line you can get away with trades like that without any repercussions.

How many times has he had top 10 picks? Maybe 3 or 4 times in his career. Smart was good for his draft class and it looKS like he hit on Brown. He traded # 5 for a star. Where has he screwed up when he's had good draft picks?

[jirrit]

Read on Twitter

lol verlical

[ConstableGeneva]

I think the way this is going is max players backed up by lotto picks on rookie-scale deals. Everyone's assuming they sign a guy and trade for a guy (or my preference, sign 2 guys).

If so, then likely at least three of Smart, KO, Crowder, Bradley don't make it through the year.

Otherwise, the real outcome is more like one max contract guy and a couple of short-term guys, eg Trevor Booker or Zach Randolph.

And to me, just for contract status alone, Crowder would be the last to get traded among those four. If we trade for a Paul George or Butler, Crowder will likely be included for matching purposes.

The cap going down made it even harder to acquire two additional stars, for sure. Tax line also went down from $121M to $119M. It's unlikely we get affected by that this upcoming season.

The contract is important for sure. Depends on Jaylen, if he is playing the 2 or the 3. If he gets lots of time at three, he is cheaper though than Crowder over those same three years and they may not need both. I just feel like Crowder is on that James Posey path and they probably don't want that next contract. Was way against trading him without replacement but finally some depth may be happening.

Not against trading him per se. Just the choice of trading him vs. trading Bradley for cap space sake. Brown/Rozier/Smart/Hayward (if we sign him) can all cover the two spot. Currently, there isn't much depth in that swing position. I'm not counting on a rookie like Tatum to be effective on defense from the get-go. A main concern with losing Bradley is forcing IT to guard opposing PGs majority of the time, but I think he's been doing that more last season. I don't think either Brown or Hayward is quick enough to do so.

[Froob]

Is Tatum the new CHL player with Kelly likely gone?

[Scarletfire81]

Sigh....

Read on Twitter

[ConstableGeneva]

Ya fake WoJ my bad lol

Beware of RTs. And always look for that check mark.

[Green_teamer]

Sigh....

Read on Twitter

No checkmark guy seems like a random

[Green_teamer]

Read on Twitter

[DK-All Day]

Sigh....

Read on Twitter

Who is that guy?

[jirrit]

The stuff is legit to whine about.

So you guys already know Fultz is gonna be better than everyone in this draft?

[chrisab123]

Sure. But that doesn't mean he was right to do so. With Fultz people had to make up red flags. But he is the best player in this draft. The other players? Some can shoot some can't some can't defend some have small wingspans etc...Danny Ainge gave that up. But he gave it up for a very light return. Whoever he drafts probably won't be better than Fultz I'm just tired of this crap. The Celtics need a superstar and should be shooting for players with that kind of potential. Fultz has that potential and to a lesser extent Ball. That's it.

If that pick turns out to be 20 and Fultz becomes a superstar Ainge needs to be canned.

I'm pretty tired of the song you're singing. You seem to know who's gonna be the best player. Well, why hasn't the best players not always been picked first and so on? I know, freedom of speech but you are constantly, but really constantly, whining about the same stuff.

The stuff is legit to whine about.

I'm pretty tired of the song the Danny can do no wrong crowd is signing. Giving up the #1 and then saying well hey thats okay because Ainge was going to take Jackson or whoever #1 anyways is ridiculous. Since when does a talent evaluator that has never drafted all star talent outside of Rondo get such a pass? I don't know who will be the best player. However, literally evaluators from 29 other teams...EVERY OTHER TEAM said Fultz was the guy. Don't give me that Durant over Oden stuff either. He could have traded down in that draft too.

[Green_teamer]

Read on Twitter

[greenroom31]

Sigh....

Read on Twitter

Who is that guy?

His bio says "Editor-In-Chief/co-owner of http://CheeseheadTV.com and http://PackersTalk.com . Packers Analyst for http://DraftTek.com . PFWA member."

And his account was created in 2009 with over 6K followers. Not a total random, but certainly not a reliable source.

[tombattor]

Sure. But that doesn't mean he was right to do so. With Fultz people had to make up red flags. But he is the best player in this draft. The other players? Some can shoot some can't some can't defend some have small wingspans etc...Danny Ainge gave that up. But he gave it up for a very light return. Whoever he drafts probably won't be better than Fultz I'm just tired of this crap. The Celtics need a superstar and should be shooting for players with that kind of potential. Fultz has that potential and to a lesser extent Ball. That's it.

If that pick turns out to be 20 and Fultz becomes a superstar Ainge needs to be canned.

There are several guys in this year's draft that could be superstars. Next year is also shaping up to be a loaded draft. I would say there is a 40% chance that Fultz becomes a superstar. I think there is a 25% chance that the #3 player become a superstar and a 25% chance next year's player (or 2019) becomes a superstar. That's not only greater odds at landing a superstar, but you would also get a pretty good player to go along with him.

I heard on podcast that 69% of #1 picks become all stars and 40-50% of #3 picks. INMO, there are those drafts every 4-5 years where there is only 1 guy with undeniable star potential - AD, KAT, Kyrie - ie. Roughly 20-25% of drafts that accounts for the difference.

For a draft like this I think that all top 5 picks have a 40-50% chance of bing all stars.

Fwiw, kat and kyrie weren't can't miss guys coming out. For example, there was significant discussion over kat vs okafor. By the draft, people generally agreed that kat is better, but saying that kat was that is a bit of revisionist history.