The Zach Lavine Problem

[Ice Man]

And FWIW - Phillys first move in their 'process' was to trade Jrue Holiday for a kid who had just torn his ACL and a future first.

1) Butler is better than Jrue.
2) Where's our future 1st?

[TheSuzerain]

And FWIW - Phillys first move in their 'process' was to trade Jrue Holiday for a kid who had just torn his ACL and a future first.


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I thought the Sam Hinkie transaction flow chart was very instructive. http://www.nba.com/sixers/hinkie-flow-chart/

We are in a very similar spot to the 2013 76ers when Hinkie took over. And given the 76ers success in rebuilding, we should be trying to emulate that.

Most interesting to me:

- There are ZERO players on the 76ers roster today that were on the team in the 2013-14 season (the first year of their tank).
- Constant gathering of 2nd rounders. Rather than pissing them away like buffoons.
- A ton of "misses" on picks/players. But they kept churning the roster looking for hidden gems.
- The sheer volume of picks Hinkie gathered. 76ers pretty much had 3 times the normal amount of draft picks in this span.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

Have I missed the part where players undergo body composition scans nowadays as common practice & this data is publicly released for all to see?

Yeah. That's what you missed.

Oh please do tell what evidence you have to support such a claim.

If you can't tell Derrick is built heavier than Zach Lavine, I don't know what to tell you, buddy.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

And FWIW - Phillys first move in their 'process' was to trade Jrue Holiday for a kid who had just torn his ACL and a future first.

1) Butler is better than Jrue.
2) Where's our future 1st?

I don't think Butler's value was higher than Jrue - if reports of what other teams were offering are to be believed.

I think the Bulls looked at LaVine / Lauri as a sort of First/Future First. The value of all three, in their mind, necessitated pick swap to get the deal done.

[molepharmer]

Has the Bulls forum really gotten to the point of having a problem about whether to pay their 23yr old 20ppg SG ~$20mil per year ? That's an issue now? Really? Bulls should be so lucky.

[BullsFTW]

I believe with the way his rehab
is going, Zach can return as early as November

[Chi town]

I believe with the way his rehab
is going, Zach can return as early as November

Exactly. That kid wants to get on the court because he loves the game. He also wants a max contract and knows he will need a couple months of games to round into form.

If he's ready in November you bring him off the bench as a 6th man scorer until he is ready to start.

This will help us see what Val has too as the starter.

[CharityStripe34]

this is a hastily researched take, but i also think a 21 year old tearing his acl has better odds of recovery than most players

it's concerning that a good portion of his game relies on athleticism, but when you see college guys or rookies go down to acl injuries they're usually not zapped, yeah? barring a recurring injury at least

The problem is that in the last 10-15 years most athletic players rely on their athleticism for a majority of their careers until they're past their prime. Then they realize they actually have to learn how to play basketball and incorporate fundamentals. Shooting, footwork, passing and defensive knowledge. If I'm Lavine, I'm thinking to myself that I have to become a near-elite shooter and improve my ball-handling ability off the bat. This way he can pick his spots to make incredible acrobatic plays and dunks.

[NDave79]

Here is a little instagram video of Zach rehabbing. It looks to me like he has added a significant amount of muscle. I suppose it is a risk for him to be carrying more weight, but I think this could significantly help his game - specifically things like defense, rebounding, and finishing through contact.

[DarthDiggler69]

I believe with the way his rehab
is going, Zach can return as early as November

yeah I heard November too. maybe Bulls can hold him back a few more weeks to see what improvement there is from Dunn/Payne/Valentine/Grant

[bennjuiced34]

I believe LaVine could become a perfect 6th man. Maybe carve out a role like Jamal Crawford did?

I question LaVine's upside as a 2-way player. But off the bench? Dude could be lethal as a scorer. Less pressure to have to defend too.

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Sixth man? More like all-star and 24ppg scorer. Some of you are seriously underrating this guy. His production was damn good for the 3rd option on a team two guys scoring in the mid-twenties. And he is only 21. His defense needs to get better, but when has that ever relegated a guy with his kind of talent to the bench? Never...

He can't play defense and I really don't see him getting much better at it, which is fine. He has a special skill, or well 2. Offense and athleticism.

I like that in a roll off the bench where all he has to worry about is scoring.

I'm not underrating anything about LaVine. I'm giving my thoughts as to where he fits in this league.

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[chrispatrick]

Has the Bulls forum really gotten to the point of having a problem about whether to pay their 23yr old 20ppg SG ~$20mil per year ? That's an issue now? Really? Bulls should be so lucky.

it's a problem when the guy's never once managed to have a positive on/off impact in his career. ideally, a player you're paying $20+ million per year will have showed that at least once, he can make a positive impact on winning and losing. LaVine has never once done that statistically.

if you're impressed by volume stats like 20 ppg, you'll probably like this trade better. if you're looking at indicators for how a guy he's his team, LaVine hasn't done it. Meanwhile, guys like KAT, Wiggins, and Dieng have at least showed that the Timberwolves are better with them than without.

That's not to say he'll never help a team, but in order to do so, he needs to be WAY better than he was before the ACL tear.

[Ice Man]

Has the Bulls forum really gotten to the point of having a problem about whether to pay their 23yr old 20ppg SG ~$20mil per year ? That's an issue now? Really? Bulls should be so lucky.

Rudy Gay scores 20 points per game. A lot of guys score 20 who aren't worth locking into contracts. Hell, we just jettisoned a 24-point scorer who also defends, rebounds, passes, and doesn't foul.

Zach has a high ceiling, but as with any player, he could remain at the current level, and that guy ain't worth $20 million per year.

[Rerisen]

Lavine is going to be another new test for Hoiberg. Even if Zach gets all the way back to what he was, Thibs couldn't figure out how to make him help his team be better.

Then again, even Wolves fans can be found to complain about Thibs 'Iso' offense from time to time.

So its time for Fred to start showing his system chops on offense, if he has any. Because Zach certainly isn't adding much on the other end.

[bledredwine]

Here is a little instagram video of Zach rehabbing. It looks to me like he has added a significant amount of muscle. I suppose it is a risk for him to be carrying more weight, but I think this could significantly help his game.

Ugh, the deja vu is killing me.

[Mech Engineer]

The salary cap is going to stagnate. Lavine has to have a top 15 player impact along with another kid becoming a top 15 player.

Otherwise, it will be the Deng situation. A highly paid good player on an average team with the Bulls not ready to overspend unless they have a superstar.

[Ice Man]

The salary cap is going to stagnate. Lavine has to have a top 15 player

He was a #13 pick, has not yet threatened the top 100, and had ACL surgery. For LaVine to reach Butler/Wall/Giannis level would be highly unlikely. Being the next Deng would be a pretty good accomplishment. (Not that he plays at all like Lu, I just mean in terms of what he contributes.)

[molepharmer]

Has the Bulls forum really gotten to the point of having a problem about whether to pay their 23yr old 20ppg SG ~$20mil per year ? That's an issue now? Really? Bulls should be so lucky.

it's a problem when the guy's never once managed to have a positive on/off impact in his career. ideally, a player you're paying $20+ million per year will have showed that at least once, he can make a positive impact on winning and losing. LaVine has never once done that statistically.

if you're impressed by volume stats like 20 ppg, you'll probably like this trade better. if you're looking at indicators for how a guy he's his team, LaVine hasn't done it. Meanwhile, guys like KAT, Wiggins, and Dieng have at least showed that the Timberwolves are better with them than without.

That's not to say he'll never help a team, but in order to do so, he needs to be WAY better than he was before the ACL tear.

This Wiggins ????
year...ORtg/DRtg
'14.....103/114
'15.....106/113
'16.....107/115

You think Minny believes it's a problem when they'll most likely have to pay Wiggins $20+ mil ? Or Mil with J Parker ? Using the ORtg/DRtg to access a young player on a crap team is darn near worthless.

[Rerisen]

Zach's steals and blocks are really anemic for his incredible athleticism.

You have to wonder if its low bball IQ, or simply laziness. He's said to work hard, but does he only care about offense?

[Ice Man]

This Wiggins ????
year...ORtg/DRtg
'14.....103/114
'15.....106/113
'16.....107/115.

Yep. Neither Wiggins or Zach have yet been good players. If they were, Minnesota wouldn't have lost 51 games with KAT as a young monster, and solid veteran play from Dieng and Rubio. Zach at least is showing himself to be an efficient scorer, which gives him the edge over Wiggins for me. At least, before the knee injury.