Second poll a month into college season - who to take at #3 if Doncic/Ayton gone - 45% Young, 28% Bagley, 17% Porter
Third poll at beginning of new year for #1 pick - 47% Doncic, 23% Ayton, 15% Young
Fourth poll end of January - Bamba vs Jackson 50/50
Fifth poll early February - Porter vs Bagley 67% Porter 33% Bagley
Payton trade:
Sixth poll mid February - Ayton vs Young at 2 if Doncic gone 62% Ayton 34% Young 4% Other
Seventh poll mid-late February - Ayton vs Doncic at 1....50/50...
2018 NBA draft preview - by Chad Ford
NBA teams are already prepping for the 2018 NBA draft.
The 2017 draft was one of the deepest at the top we've ever seen, with as many as 10 or 11 potential All-Stars in it.
The 2018 draft is just as exciting or more at the very top, but after that it drops off pretty dramatically.
Here's a sneak preview of what to expect.
1. Michael Porter Jr.
Missouri
Forward
Freshman
6-foot-10, 216 pounds
Porter is a prototypical NBA wing with great size, length and athleticism. He has a very good feel for the game, deep range on his jumper and the ability to be a playmaker.
He lacks elite strength and can be an inconsistent rebounder and defender, but he's a unique and potentially devastating offensive weapon.
2. Luka Doncic
Slovenia
Guard/forward
Age: 18
6-7, 190
Doncic may be the most highly regarded international prospect ever. At the age of 18, he's already playing a significant role on a Euroleague final four team. That's unheard of.
He's an offensive whiz kid. He has an elite feel for the game and has no real weaknesses in his skill set. He can shoot, create his own shot and handle the ball.
He doesn't have elite athleticism, though he's not a bad athlete. Still, he's not of the caliber you typically find in a potential No. 1 pick.
He and Porter are the heavy favorites to go No. 1 and 2, in some order, with the league split basically 50-50 right now.
3. DeAndre Ayton
Arizona
Forward/center
Freshman
7-0, 220
Ayton was the No. 1 prospect in this class until Porter and Doncic passed him.
There's a lot there to love. Ayton has great size and length for his position. He's a terrific athlete who can score from anywhere on the floor, and he's also a good shot blocker.
He needs to get stronger and show more toughness in the paint, but the physical tools and skills are all there.
4. Mohamed Bamba
Texas
Center
Freshman
7-0, 216
Bamba has the chance to be a game-changing defensive presence in the NBA. He has a ridiculous 7-foot-9 wing span, and he's a fluid athlete with quick feet. He's an elite-level shot blocker who has some scouts comparing him to Rudy Gobert.
He needs to get stronger and polish his offensive game, but he's going to be a nightmare on the defensive end.
5. Miles Bridges
Michigan State
Forward
Sophomore
6-8, 230
Bridges would've been a lottery pick in 2017 but opted to return to Michigan State for his sophomore season and improve his stock.
He has all the physical tools NBA scouts look for -- strength, length, athleticism -- and a pretty sophisticated offensive game. He can shoot with distance, post up and handle the ball a little.
He had a strong freshman season, but if he takes it to the next level as a sophomore, he should be a lock for the top five.
Storylines to watch
Here are four themes to help you look ahead to next year's draft:
1. A top-heavy freshman class
Freshmen continue to have a huge impact because of the one-and-done rule. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver is trying to change that, but for now one-and-dones are the true stars of the draft.
In 2017, 11 freshmen went in the lottery. That's the most ever.
Another 16 freshmen went in the first round -- again, the most ever. In 2018, we are projecting another 11 college freshmen -- Porter, Ayton, Bamba, Kentucky's Kevin Knox, Alabama's Collin Sexton, MSU's Jaren Jackson, Oregon's Troy Brown, Duke's Trevon Duval, Kentucky's Hamidou Diallo, WKU's Mitchell Robinson and Kentucky's Jarred Vanderbilt -- for the lottery.
Several other freshmen -- including Duke's Wendall Carter, Miami's Lonnie Walker, Villanova's Omari Spellman, UNLV's Brandon McCoy, Louisville's Brian Bowen, UCLA's Jaylen Hand and Kentucky's P.J. Washington -- are possible first-rounders as well.
One big question about next year's draft is the depth of the quality beyond the first four names above.
2. Somewhat depleted sophomore and junior classes
Only a small handful of the top players decided to skip the 2017 draft and return to college. Just about everyone with a shot at the first round threw his hat into the ring. Only two returning college players -- Bridges and Texas A&M's Robert Williams -- ended up cracking our projected lottery picks for 2018.
Still, there are interesting returning players: Michigan's Moritz Wagner, KU's Malik Newman, USC's DeAnthony Melton, Texas' Andrew Jones, Maryland's Justin Jackson, Duke's Marques Bolden and Miami's Bruce Brown could all end up in middle of the first round and possibly higher with excellent seasons.
3. A solid crop of international prospects
The 2017 international draft class was quite weak. France's Frank Ntilikina was the only international player to go in the lottery. Only three international players went in the first round.
The 2018 international class is stronger, with Doncic potentially going No. 1. Germany's Isaac Bonga, Latvian wing Rodions Kurucs, Belgium's Kosta Mushidi and Bosnia's Dzanan Musa are among the other potential first-rounders.
4. Wings rule the draft
In 2018, wings take five spaces in our top 10.
Overall, we have five point guards, 12 wings (including three in the top five), seven power forwards, and six centers in our top 30.
The hunt for elite point guards will be especially difficult next year. We only have one ranked in the top 10 at the moment.
Draft pick inventory
Another key to look at as we assess the 2018 NBA Draft: Who has their picks, who has multiple picks and who is out of the draft?
The Celtics could end up landing yet another high lottery pick via the Nets. They own Brooklyn's pick outright in 2018. Unless the Nets make significant improvements this summer, this could end up being another top-3 pick for the Celtics.
The Celtics also have a shot at landing the Lakers' pick in 2018. They received the pick from Philly as part of the swap of No. 1 for No. 3. If the Lakers pick falls between Nos. 2-5, the Celtics get it. If the pick is No. 1 or Nos. 6-30, the Sixers get it.
(Sorry, Lakers' fans, the lottery can't save you this time. The Lakers have no chance of keeping the pick next year.)
The only team that is completely out of the draft next year is the Nets (barring trades).
Here's a look at other picks in 2018 that will or could be on the move:
The Celtics own the Nets' pick.
The Celtics own the Lakers' pick if it falls between Nos. 2-5.
The Sixers own the Lakers pick if it falls at No. 1 or from Nos. 6-30.
The Suns own Miami's pick if it falls between Nos. 8-30.
The Blazers own the Cavs' pick if it falls between Nos. 11-30.
The Hawks own the Wolves' pick if it falls between Nos. 15-30.
The Jazz own OKC's pick if it falls between Nos. 15-30.
http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/19701306/2018-nba-draft-preview-chad-ford-michael-porter-luka-doncic-more
